Its that time again. . Bear with any mistakes, I didn't proofread. Grab a cup of java and enjoy. Commentary and critiques are always welcome
One bid conferences
AMERICA EAST: Vermont
BIG SKY: Montana
BIG SOUTH: Radford
BIG WEST: UC Irvine
COLONIAL: Hofstra
CUSA: Old Dominion
HORIZON: Wright State
IVY: Yale
MAAC: Iona
MIDAMERICAN: Buffalo
MEAC: Norfolk State
MVC: Missouri State
NORTHEAST: St Francis PA
OHIO VALLEY: Belmont
PATRIOT: Bucknell
SOUTHERN: Wofford
SOUTHLAND: Sam Houston State
SUN BELT: Texas State
SWAC: Prairie View A&M
SUMMIT: South Dakota State
WAC: New Mexico State
AMERICAN
Autobid: HOUSTON
Lock: CINCINNATI
Bubble
(51) TEMPLE 20-7: Owls own the honor of being the only school to hand Houston a loss this season. Its a win probably worth 3 wins considering it was at Houston. Its needs to be as their only other Q1 win was at USF which could easily drop down to a Q2. The Owls need another big win or two at this point. Just 2-5 vs Q1 and 5-1 vs Q2. The schedule strength overall is okay but there is nothing of note non conference save for a win over Davidson. First they will have to avoid potential landmines at Memphis/Tulane/at UConn and beat fellow bubble UCF who they already lost to. Certainly their chances are buoyed by the rather mundane resumes of the drek laying around the bubble. And Temple proceeds to lose to Memphis as I write this. Makes UCF a must win as well as their other two.
(34) CENTRAL FLORIDA 20-6: Much like the Owls, the Knights have floated to the top of the bubble scrap heap not so much because they did anything right but they have compiled alot of wins and dont show many losses. The overall NET is 34 but digging deeper there is really nothing here except 20 wins. UCF is 0-3 in Q1 and 6-2 vs Q2 but Temple is the best win of the bunch. Should beating Temple and a bunch of mediocre AAC schools punch your ticket to the dance. Again they face a big matchup with the Owls but unlike the Owls, they face a stretch of games that can cement a spot in the field or knock them out.....at USF, at Houston, Cincy. Knocking off 2 of those 3 is almost mandatory for them, otherwise they will need a run to the AAC finals.
ACC
Autobid: VIRGINIA
Lock: DUKE, NORTH CAROLINA, VIRGINIA TECH, FLORIDA STATE, LOUISVILLE
Bubble
(32) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 20-8: The NET rating may be pretty but unpeeling the onion shows a lot of rot on this resume. The Wolfpack are not helped by the ACC being the 5th rated conference this season. The overall SOS of 150 is abysmal. The non conference sos of 352 is the second worst in the entire country. A whopping 10 of their 20 wins are from Q4 including 3 wins vs the lowest 13 teams in the nation. They have a hideous conference loss to a bad Wake Forest. Note the eye test in the brutal 47-24 loss to Va Tech. At just 1-7 vs Q1 that being a win over fading Auburn, they are 6-0 in Q2 but only wins over Clemson/Cuse both bubbles themselves. If the season ended today, NC State would get in unfortunately. However they would do well to win their last 3 to be safe...that would include a much needed Q1 win at FSU and taking care of BC/Ga Tech...two losses in that group could prove fatal.
(44) SYRACUSE 18-9: Seems like every year we are talking about the Orange being around the bubble. This particular year Cuse is fairly safe. SOS quite strong at 20. Very close to being a lock but the schedule is challenging down the stretch. At UNC, VA and a bubble matchup at Clemson. In between there is a must win game at Wake, that one probably would be enough but certainly knocking off any of the other 3 will lock them all. All the stats scream a bid.....3-5 vs Q1 including a feather in their cap with at Duke and very good wins over Louisville and OSU. 5-3 vs Q2 includes wins over Clemson and Gtown. There is that bad loss at Gtech but it would take a huge amount of mayhem for the Orange to miss the tourney at this point. And as I write this Cuse loses to UNC but no harm done especially since a bunch of bubbles lost tonight and the bubble is quickly shrinking every minute.
(43) CLEMSON 16-11: Tigers have work to do in their final 4 games. With just a 1-8 mark vs Q1 and a unimpressive 3-8 mark vs Q2 its hard to make a case for a spot in the field for a team where 12 of its 16 wins are Q3 and Q4. Their biggest win is Virginia Tech and while they do have a nice win over Lipscomb its simply not enough. Tigers get UNC at home this weekend and that is the game where they must make their case. Can they still sneak in without that one, well it would require winning at Pitt/ND and beating Cuse. Note in their favor no bad losses and a SOS of 33 but perhaps that signifies that they cannot beat many good teams.
ATLANTIC SUN
Autobid: LIBERTY
Bubble
(46) LIPSCOMB 20-6: Its not very often the Atlantic Sun is talked about in terms of at large bids but in a year with a weakened bubble, I suppose the Bisons deserve a menton. . Obviously they are locked in a battle with Liberty for first in the league and may actually be favored to win the ASun tourney. Liberty has no shot at an large by the way. Lipscomb was putting a nice resume together until an ugly loss at #233 Florida Gulf Coast. Thats the kind of loss that will probably keep them from having a legit shot to dance. They do have 2 Q1 wins...one over Liberty splitting the season series and a really good win at TCU. There is a close loss to Louisville and another loss to Clemson. But what really hurts was getting swept out of conference by fellow bubble Belmont. That is enough to keep the Bison in the sucker portions of the bubble wading pool.
ATLANTIC 10
Autobid: VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
Bubble
(67) DAVIDSON 19-7: To be honest the Cats are distant bubble at this point. They have a path but its quite narrow. They will need to win their last 4 against the dregs of the A10, all Q3 and Q4 games and then get to the finals of the A10 tourney. They only help in the win total and any loss would be fatal. Remember this is a team with losses to bottom feeding St Joes and UMass. The A10 conference is absolute trash this season. 0-2 vs Q1 and 4-2 in Q2... One win over VCU does not get you in the NCAA tourney
BIG EAST
Autobid: MARQUETTE
Locks: VILLANOVA, SAINT JOHN'S
Bubble
(49) BUTLER 15-12: Bulldogs are hanging around mainly because of their SOS of 19 has built their NET ranking up and of course once again because of the weak bubble. Not sure the Big East has the cache this year to send a sub 500 conference school to the NCAA. Butler is really going to need to beat Nova and take care of business vs PC 2x an Xavier to push them into the field. The overall loss mark is getting high Just 2-7 vs Q1..those wins are Florida and Gtown. The Q2 mark of 5-5 actually has more decent wins...SHU, Ole Miss, and St John's. Not out of the question but have to prove it. And as I was writing this, Butler proceed to lose at home to Providence in OT. A costly costly loss giving them their first Q3 loss and pretty much making it mandatory that they win at Villanova as the Bulldogs do not have the resume to get into the tournament with 15 losses.
(62) SETON HALL 16-11: Pirates are still in for now despite a two game slide. People forget what is on the resume here. Non conference matters and the Hall has a golden win over Kentucky and great road win at Maryland. 3-6 vs Q1 and a very nice 7-2 vs Q2, that combined very strong for the list of bubble teams. Its true the Big East isnt as strong this year. Pirates does have wins over St John's a tourney team and a split with bubble Butler. There are concerns here. The overall NET has been dragged down by 3 Quadrant 1 losses...Xavier, De Paul and St Louis. No doubt the last 3 games at Gtown, Marquette and Nova will go along way to deciding whether the Pirates are clearly in or will need to make a run to the Big East finals or possibly win it. Beat Marquette and they will dance, beat Gtown and Nova and they dance, beat only Gtown or Nova and I think SHU will need that to make the Big East finals, lose all 3 and they will have to win the BE tourney.
(73) GEORGETOWN 16-11: Hoyas have played their way out of the field for now with 3 losses in their last 4. Hoyas have a win at Nova but that win isnt as impressive as once thought. In addition there are wins vs St Johns, Butler, and Liberty. 3-5 vs Q1 and 4-4 vs Q2 Seem to be lacking a little flesh here but they have ample opportunity with a road trip to Marquette and a home game vs SHU. But these games could torpedo them as well along with 2 games vs De Paul. Remember there are two bad OOC losses to SMU and Loyola Marymount that really hurt. They will have to earn their way in at this point
(84) XAVIER 15-13: An unexpected 4 game win streak following a brutal 5 game losing streak has revived the Muskateers from the dead. Still with 13 losses, they must win out to close the season and in that could pick up some Q1 wins, 2 games vs St John's and one at Butler. Win them and a decent showing in the BE tourney just might land them in. 2-8 in Q1 and 6-2 vs Q2, these include wins Nova and fellow bubbles SHU, Butler, Gtown. Their best OOC win is just Illinois and note they have 3 Q3 losses which contributes to the overall poor NET and loss total. One more loss though in regular season and they will have to win the Big East tourney.
BIG 10
Autobid: MICHIGAN STATE
Lock: MICHIGAN, PURDUE, MARYLAND, WISCONSIN, IOWA,
Bubble
(42) OHIO STATE 17-10: Buckeyes are in need of another quality win or two to solidify their spot in the tourney. The good news is their last 4 gives them opportunities with home games vs Iowa and Wisconsin and a road tilt at Purdue. They have been wobbly of late and even though they have 4 Quad 1 wins, looking a little closer shows 3 of those wins against the likes of medicore Indiana, Nebraska and Creighton. Their biggest win was at Cincy but in league its just a fading Minnesota. Their Q3 loss to Illinois isnt as bad as it looks and the SOS is 47. The Big 10 has earned their worth this year and that has helped OSU overall but if they were to drop 3 of 4 they might need a run to the Big 10 finals. Note as of this writing, OSU is leading Iowa late in the game. Big win for them and they can win at Northwestern that could be enough to hold them in when all is said and done.
(57) INDIANA 14-14: Yes Indiana the Zombie of the bubble this year and why not. In a year in which is the bubble is simply tragic, after their double overtime thrilling win over Wisconsin, the Hoosiers now have 6 count em 6 Quadrant 1 wins...No other bubble schools have this many. Wisky is added to the list that includes Michigan State, Marquette, Louisville, Butler and a lesser win at PSU which qualifies as a Q1. Hoosiers are 6-9 vs that quad. 15 games in that Quad...huge to look at...SOS of 41. The path is now there. Whether they can get to it is another story. Starts with a huge game at home vs Sparty...another win there and wins at Illinois and Rutgers and yeah Indiana is dancing. It would put them 17-14 going into the tourney. I dont think that they would have to win a game in the tourney. But all can come crashing down...one loss anywhere and they are finished. Going to be interesting to watch. Remember this team lost 12 of 13 coming into tonight. Yes OOC matters, an 8-12 mark in the Big 10 to go along with their strong OOC profile will get them in.
(59) MINNESOTA 17-11: Little Ricky's Gophers are sputtering at the wrong time losing 6 of its last 7 and desperate in need of a win at Northwestern to stop the bleeding. Following that, its likely they will need a win over Purdue or at Maryland to lock them in. If they lose those two, its going to take a possible run to the Big 10 finals to get them as that overall loss total getting to 14 is getting in the dangerous territory. It is a shame because the Gophers did some nice things early in the season. 3-8 vs Q1 and these are really good wins...at Wisconsin, Iowa and Washington neutral site. 5-3 in Q2 is solid enough. The loss to BC is still Q2 but its a blemish and losing to Rutgers with so much on the line may say it all on what is to come with this team. Classic case of a school playing themselves out of the field as we head to crunch time.
BIG 12
Autobid: KANSAS STATE
Lock: TEXAS TECH, KANSAS, IOWA STATE, BAYLOR
Bubble
(36) TEXAS 15-12: Horns have alot of things working in their favor...a very strong SOS of 6, a solid over NET, 4-7 vs Q1 and 4-3 vs Q2. Wins over North Carolina, Purdue, at Kansas, at Kansas State....are you kidding me? Tough to imagine Texas being left. What is preventing them from being a lock is the sheer amount of losses. With 4 remaining games, you dont want to lose more than 2. Those final 4 games are all against tourney or bubble teams....at Baylor, ISU, at Texas Tech and TCU. If any year a 15 loss team makes the tourney, its this year from the #1 rated Big 12. Of course they are kicking themselves for the bad losses to Radford and Providence as they would be locked in already. Still it will be an interesting case study should the Horns enter the Big 12 tourney with 15 losses, does a say 17-16 team with all the quality wins make it?
(40) OKLAHOMA 17-11: Much like last year, the Sooners have the potential to be one of the more controversial bubble schools. While they are not finishing as poorly as they did last year. The 5-10 conference mark is a concern. Sooners absolutely cannot sustain going 6-12 in league play, I do not care how well thought of the Big 12 is this year and that conference records are not taking into consideration. They must pick up a quality win vs either KSU or at Kansas St in addition to taking care of business vs WVU. Honestly if they do that and finish 19-12/7-11 they will be fine and dancing. The 10-11 mark vs Q1/Q2 shows wins vs Wofford and Florida OOC but in league a struggle with just quality wins over Baylor and a sweep of bubble TCU. SOS of 11 plus no bad losses will work to their benefit.
(41) TEXAS CHRISTIAN 18-9: Just I was preparing this, the Horned suffered suffered a crushing triple overtime loss at WVU. It marks the 2nd loss (OkSt) to a bottom feeding Big 12 school in 3 games. While they are still Q2 losses (WVU for now) not taking care of business means TCU needs to come up with probably 2 wins in their last 3 against the two league leaders Texas Tech and KSU and also bubble Texas in the season finale. A sweep of ISU are the best wins but the only wins in the 2-6 mark vs Q1. The 5-4 mark vs Q2 includes wins vs Florida, Baylor and Texas but note they were swept by Oklahoma. SOS of 39 will help but the Frogs are most bubblicious at this point..Play your win in or play your way out.
MOUNTAIN WEST
Autobid: NEVADA
Bubble
(37) UTAH STATE 21-6: Aggies benefitting from the weak bubble but they certainly are not getting in based on one deceiving Q1 win over St Mary's. Their path rests in beating league leading Nevada to pick up that needed Q1 and also avoiding landmines vs San Diego State and Colorado State. Otherwise they will have to win the conference tourney. Just too flimsy here...1-2 vs Q1, 2-3 vs Q2. Its not like anything terrible about the losses but its a case of not beating the tougher teams they played..bubble ASU, Nevada, Houston, BYU. The two conference losses to SDSU and FSU are not terrible either but they really dont have margin of error for them. And even with a win over Nevada, they still need to probably reach the MWC finals
PACIFIC 12
Autobid: WASHINGTON
Bubble
(63) ARIZONA STATE 19-8: The Pac 12 is a hot mess again this year and league wins are fairly benign in the grand scheme of things. Rated 7th, the Pac 12 will not get more than two bids this year but ASU who was a controversial selection last year once again sits in a similar postion. The wins are there but some bad losses and the conference rating drop that overall net to a shaky 63. Still there is that 4-1 mark. Oh the wins..Kansas, Mississippi State, and Washington all NCAA teams plus a win over bubble Utah State. The 4-4 mark in Q2 is clogged up with mediocrity from in league and OOC. The red flags appear with 2 Q4 losses...Wash St and Princeton, plus another Q3 loss to Utah which potentially could be two should Vandy slide back in the NET a few spots. Those are the potential things that can poison a resume should the selection commitee weigh those losses heavily. To compound matters the Sun Devils final 3 games are all on the road to the Oregon schools and rival Arizona, all games in Q2 but do they need to win them all, lose 2 and they will likely need to win the Pac 12 tourney.
SOUTHEASTERN
Autobid: LOUISIANA STATE
Lock: KENTUCKY, TENNESSEE, MISSISSIPPI STATE, MISSISSIPPI
Bubble
(23) AUBURN 17-9: Tigers have struggled no doubt in the SEC now down to 9th place at .500. They just have not been able to knock off any of the top 4 or 5 schools with their best wins being Florida and Alabama those are Q2 wins. 2-7 vs Q1 isnt so hot albeit one of the wins vs Washington is a good one, the other is Texas A&M a 500 school who will likely drop that win to Q2 before the season is done. Note they do have wins over Murray State and Xavier in Q2 and that 7-2 mark helps here. Tigers of 21 help keeping them with a strong overall NET. They have a tough finish after a road trip to Ga, Miss St, Tenn, and Bama loom..what if they lose 3..that is where things could get interesting. Might be the one school benefitting the most from a weak bubble.
(31) FLORIDA 16-11: Gators finally got their feather in their cap win by ousting league leading LSU on the road to resuscitate their flagging NCAA hopes. Given the weakness and lack of true bubble this year its likely that win along with a win at Bama, Ole Miss and Butler will probably be enough for them despite that 2-10 Q1 mark. What it does show is the schedule as been tough and its 29 overall. Gators get two weak sisters and as long as they can take care of them both on the road, they should be fine. A win in either of their closing games vs LSU and at Kentucky would just bolster their seeding.
(53) ALABAMA 17-11: . Beating Kentucky means everything for the Crimson Tide in a year where the bubble is quick weak and small. This year taking caring of business like they did tonight vs So Carolina and getting maybe one more quality win...Auburn coming up should be enough for them. Add in some wins over Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Liberty and Murray State and its not a bad resume. 2-7 vs Q1 and 8-3 vs Q2. The loss to Georgia State sticks out like a sore thumb but probably gets overlooked.
WEST COAST
Autobid: GONZAGA
Bubble
(39) SAINT MARY'S 19-10: Last year the Gaels were snubbed at 28-5, if only the bubble was as weak at this season. At 19-10 somehow they find themselves back on the bubble, not on the good side but the NET of 39 puts them here moreso than anything that they have accomplished this year. Well a matchup at home to close the season with Gonzaga remains, if the SMU can beat the Zags they legit have a chance to such a crappy bubble year. They have one Q1 win now against a very good New Mexico State and the schedule shows some close losses to LSU and Mississippi State. Definitely schedule stronger after last year and that is reflected in the 52 sos mark. Other than just wins over San Diego and San Fransisco are not all that impressive and note I am not considering San Fran a bubble contender like others. Ultimately what is likely going to keep them out are 3 ugly unnecessary Q3 losses..UC Irvine, Pepperdine and Harvard. Perhaps if they had lost only one of them, they could make a stronger case.
32 autobids and 21 locks makes up 53 of the available 68 spots. There are 23 schools competing for 15 spots
Here is the pecking order
IN
1. Syracuse
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Oklahoma
5. Auburn
6. Florida
7. Arizona State
8. Seton Hall
9. Alabama
10. TCU
11. Minnesota
12. North Carolina State
13. Utah State
14. Central Florida
15. Temple
OUT
16. Butler
17. Clemson
18. Georgetown
19. Indiana
20. Saint Mary's
21. Lipscomb
22. Xavier
23. Davidson
LAST 4 IN: NORTH CAROLINA STATE, UTAH STATE, CENTRAL FLORIDA, TEMPLE
LAST 4 OUT: BUTLER, CLEMSON, GEORGETOWN, INDIANA
One bid conferences
AMERICA EAST: Vermont
BIG SKY: Montana
BIG SOUTH: Radford
BIG WEST: UC Irvine
COLONIAL: Hofstra
CUSA: Old Dominion
HORIZON: Wright State
IVY: Yale
MAAC: Iona
MIDAMERICAN: Buffalo
MEAC: Norfolk State
MVC: Missouri State
NORTHEAST: St Francis PA
OHIO VALLEY: Belmont
PATRIOT: Bucknell
SOUTHERN: Wofford
SOUTHLAND: Sam Houston State
SUN BELT: Texas State
SWAC: Prairie View A&M
SUMMIT: South Dakota State
WAC: New Mexico State
AMERICAN
Autobid: HOUSTON
Lock: CINCINNATI
Bubble
(51) TEMPLE 20-7: Owls own the honor of being the only school to hand Houston a loss this season. Its a win probably worth 3 wins considering it was at Houston. Its needs to be as their only other Q1 win was at USF which could easily drop down to a Q2. The Owls need another big win or two at this point. Just 2-5 vs Q1 and 5-1 vs Q2. The schedule strength overall is okay but there is nothing of note non conference save for a win over Davidson. First they will have to avoid potential landmines at Memphis/Tulane/at UConn and beat fellow bubble UCF who they already lost to. Certainly their chances are buoyed by the rather mundane resumes of the drek laying around the bubble. And Temple proceeds to lose to Memphis as I write this. Makes UCF a must win as well as their other two.
(34) CENTRAL FLORIDA 20-6: Much like the Owls, the Knights have floated to the top of the bubble scrap heap not so much because they did anything right but they have compiled alot of wins and dont show many losses. The overall NET is 34 but digging deeper there is really nothing here except 20 wins. UCF is 0-3 in Q1 and 6-2 vs Q2 but Temple is the best win of the bunch. Should beating Temple and a bunch of mediocre AAC schools punch your ticket to the dance. Again they face a big matchup with the Owls but unlike the Owls, they face a stretch of games that can cement a spot in the field or knock them out.....at USF, at Houston, Cincy. Knocking off 2 of those 3 is almost mandatory for them, otherwise they will need a run to the AAC finals.
ACC
Autobid: VIRGINIA
Lock: DUKE, NORTH CAROLINA, VIRGINIA TECH, FLORIDA STATE, LOUISVILLE
Bubble
(32) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 20-8: The NET rating may be pretty but unpeeling the onion shows a lot of rot on this resume. The Wolfpack are not helped by the ACC being the 5th rated conference this season. The overall SOS of 150 is abysmal. The non conference sos of 352 is the second worst in the entire country. A whopping 10 of their 20 wins are from Q4 including 3 wins vs the lowest 13 teams in the nation. They have a hideous conference loss to a bad Wake Forest. Note the eye test in the brutal 47-24 loss to Va Tech. At just 1-7 vs Q1 that being a win over fading Auburn, they are 6-0 in Q2 but only wins over Clemson/Cuse both bubbles themselves. If the season ended today, NC State would get in unfortunately. However they would do well to win their last 3 to be safe...that would include a much needed Q1 win at FSU and taking care of BC/Ga Tech...two losses in that group could prove fatal.
(44) SYRACUSE 18-9: Seems like every year we are talking about the Orange being around the bubble. This particular year Cuse is fairly safe. SOS quite strong at 20. Very close to being a lock but the schedule is challenging down the stretch. At UNC, VA and a bubble matchup at Clemson. In between there is a must win game at Wake, that one probably would be enough but certainly knocking off any of the other 3 will lock them all. All the stats scream a bid.....3-5 vs Q1 including a feather in their cap with at Duke and very good wins over Louisville and OSU. 5-3 vs Q2 includes wins over Clemson and Gtown. There is that bad loss at Gtech but it would take a huge amount of mayhem for the Orange to miss the tourney at this point. And as I write this Cuse loses to UNC but no harm done especially since a bunch of bubbles lost tonight and the bubble is quickly shrinking every minute.
(43) CLEMSON 16-11: Tigers have work to do in their final 4 games. With just a 1-8 mark vs Q1 and a unimpressive 3-8 mark vs Q2 its hard to make a case for a spot in the field for a team where 12 of its 16 wins are Q3 and Q4. Their biggest win is Virginia Tech and while they do have a nice win over Lipscomb its simply not enough. Tigers get UNC at home this weekend and that is the game where they must make their case. Can they still sneak in without that one, well it would require winning at Pitt/ND and beating Cuse. Note in their favor no bad losses and a SOS of 33 but perhaps that signifies that they cannot beat many good teams.
ATLANTIC SUN
Autobid: LIBERTY
Bubble
(46) LIPSCOMB 20-6: Its not very often the Atlantic Sun is talked about in terms of at large bids but in a year with a weakened bubble, I suppose the Bisons deserve a menton. . Obviously they are locked in a battle with Liberty for first in the league and may actually be favored to win the ASun tourney. Liberty has no shot at an large by the way. Lipscomb was putting a nice resume together until an ugly loss at #233 Florida Gulf Coast. Thats the kind of loss that will probably keep them from having a legit shot to dance. They do have 2 Q1 wins...one over Liberty splitting the season series and a really good win at TCU. There is a close loss to Louisville and another loss to Clemson. But what really hurts was getting swept out of conference by fellow bubble Belmont. That is enough to keep the Bison in the sucker portions of the bubble wading pool.
ATLANTIC 10
Autobid: VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
Bubble
(67) DAVIDSON 19-7: To be honest the Cats are distant bubble at this point. They have a path but its quite narrow. They will need to win their last 4 against the dregs of the A10, all Q3 and Q4 games and then get to the finals of the A10 tourney. They only help in the win total and any loss would be fatal. Remember this is a team with losses to bottom feeding St Joes and UMass. The A10 conference is absolute trash this season. 0-2 vs Q1 and 4-2 in Q2... One win over VCU does not get you in the NCAA tourney
BIG EAST
Autobid: MARQUETTE
Locks: VILLANOVA, SAINT JOHN'S
Bubble
(49) BUTLER 15-12: Bulldogs are hanging around mainly because of their SOS of 19 has built their NET ranking up and of course once again because of the weak bubble. Not sure the Big East has the cache this year to send a sub 500 conference school to the NCAA. Butler is really going to need to beat Nova and take care of business vs PC 2x an Xavier to push them into the field. The overall loss mark is getting high Just 2-7 vs Q1..those wins are Florida and Gtown. The Q2 mark of 5-5 actually has more decent wins...SHU, Ole Miss, and St John's. Not out of the question but have to prove it. And as I was writing this, Butler proceed to lose at home to Providence in OT. A costly costly loss giving them their first Q3 loss and pretty much making it mandatory that they win at Villanova as the Bulldogs do not have the resume to get into the tournament with 15 losses.
(62) SETON HALL 16-11: Pirates are still in for now despite a two game slide. People forget what is on the resume here. Non conference matters and the Hall has a golden win over Kentucky and great road win at Maryland. 3-6 vs Q1 and a very nice 7-2 vs Q2, that combined very strong for the list of bubble teams. Its true the Big East isnt as strong this year. Pirates does have wins over St John's a tourney team and a split with bubble Butler. There are concerns here. The overall NET has been dragged down by 3 Quadrant 1 losses...Xavier, De Paul and St Louis. No doubt the last 3 games at Gtown, Marquette and Nova will go along way to deciding whether the Pirates are clearly in or will need to make a run to the Big East finals or possibly win it. Beat Marquette and they will dance, beat Gtown and Nova and they dance, beat only Gtown or Nova and I think SHU will need that to make the Big East finals, lose all 3 and they will have to win the BE tourney.
(73) GEORGETOWN 16-11: Hoyas have played their way out of the field for now with 3 losses in their last 4. Hoyas have a win at Nova but that win isnt as impressive as once thought. In addition there are wins vs St Johns, Butler, and Liberty. 3-5 vs Q1 and 4-4 vs Q2 Seem to be lacking a little flesh here but they have ample opportunity with a road trip to Marquette and a home game vs SHU. But these games could torpedo them as well along with 2 games vs De Paul. Remember there are two bad OOC losses to SMU and Loyola Marymount that really hurt. They will have to earn their way in at this point
(84) XAVIER 15-13: An unexpected 4 game win streak following a brutal 5 game losing streak has revived the Muskateers from the dead. Still with 13 losses, they must win out to close the season and in that could pick up some Q1 wins, 2 games vs St John's and one at Butler. Win them and a decent showing in the BE tourney just might land them in. 2-8 in Q1 and 6-2 vs Q2, these include wins Nova and fellow bubbles SHU, Butler, Gtown. Their best OOC win is just Illinois and note they have 3 Q3 losses which contributes to the overall poor NET and loss total. One more loss though in regular season and they will have to win the Big East tourney.
BIG 10
Autobid: MICHIGAN STATE
Lock: MICHIGAN, PURDUE, MARYLAND, WISCONSIN, IOWA,
Bubble
(42) OHIO STATE 17-10: Buckeyes are in need of another quality win or two to solidify their spot in the tourney. The good news is their last 4 gives them opportunities with home games vs Iowa and Wisconsin and a road tilt at Purdue. They have been wobbly of late and even though they have 4 Quad 1 wins, looking a little closer shows 3 of those wins against the likes of medicore Indiana, Nebraska and Creighton. Their biggest win was at Cincy but in league its just a fading Minnesota. Their Q3 loss to Illinois isnt as bad as it looks and the SOS is 47. The Big 10 has earned their worth this year and that has helped OSU overall but if they were to drop 3 of 4 they might need a run to the Big 10 finals. Note as of this writing, OSU is leading Iowa late in the game. Big win for them and they can win at Northwestern that could be enough to hold them in when all is said and done.
(57) INDIANA 14-14: Yes Indiana the Zombie of the bubble this year and why not. In a year in which is the bubble is simply tragic, after their double overtime thrilling win over Wisconsin, the Hoosiers now have 6 count em 6 Quadrant 1 wins...No other bubble schools have this many. Wisky is added to the list that includes Michigan State, Marquette, Louisville, Butler and a lesser win at PSU which qualifies as a Q1. Hoosiers are 6-9 vs that quad. 15 games in that Quad...huge to look at...SOS of 41. The path is now there. Whether they can get to it is another story. Starts with a huge game at home vs Sparty...another win there and wins at Illinois and Rutgers and yeah Indiana is dancing. It would put them 17-14 going into the tourney. I dont think that they would have to win a game in the tourney. But all can come crashing down...one loss anywhere and they are finished. Going to be interesting to watch. Remember this team lost 12 of 13 coming into tonight. Yes OOC matters, an 8-12 mark in the Big 10 to go along with their strong OOC profile will get them in.
(59) MINNESOTA 17-11: Little Ricky's Gophers are sputtering at the wrong time losing 6 of its last 7 and desperate in need of a win at Northwestern to stop the bleeding. Following that, its likely they will need a win over Purdue or at Maryland to lock them in. If they lose those two, its going to take a possible run to the Big 10 finals to get them as that overall loss total getting to 14 is getting in the dangerous territory. It is a shame because the Gophers did some nice things early in the season. 3-8 vs Q1 and these are really good wins...at Wisconsin, Iowa and Washington neutral site. 5-3 in Q2 is solid enough. The loss to BC is still Q2 but its a blemish and losing to Rutgers with so much on the line may say it all on what is to come with this team. Classic case of a school playing themselves out of the field as we head to crunch time.
BIG 12
Autobid: KANSAS STATE
Lock: TEXAS TECH, KANSAS, IOWA STATE, BAYLOR
Bubble
(36) TEXAS 15-12: Horns have alot of things working in their favor...a very strong SOS of 6, a solid over NET, 4-7 vs Q1 and 4-3 vs Q2. Wins over North Carolina, Purdue, at Kansas, at Kansas State....are you kidding me? Tough to imagine Texas being left. What is preventing them from being a lock is the sheer amount of losses. With 4 remaining games, you dont want to lose more than 2. Those final 4 games are all against tourney or bubble teams....at Baylor, ISU, at Texas Tech and TCU. If any year a 15 loss team makes the tourney, its this year from the #1 rated Big 12. Of course they are kicking themselves for the bad losses to Radford and Providence as they would be locked in already. Still it will be an interesting case study should the Horns enter the Big 12 tourney with 15 losses, does a say 17-16 team with all the quality wins make it?
(40) OKLAHOMA 17-11: Much like last year, the Sooners have the potential to be one of the more controversial bubble schools. While they are not finishing as poorly as they did last year. The 5-10 conference mark is a concern. Sooners absolutely cannot sustain going 6-12 in league play, I do not care how well thought of the Big 12 is this year and that conference records are not taking into consideration. They must pick up a quality win vs either KSU or at Kansas St in addition to taking care of business vs WVU. Honestly if they do that and finish 19-12/7-11 they will be fine and dancing. The 10-11 mark vs Q1/Q2 shows wins vs Wofford and Florida OOC but in league a struggle with just quality wins over Baylor and a sweep of bubble TCU. SOS of 11 plus no bad losses will work to their benefit.
(41) TEXAS CHRISTIAN 18-9: Just I was preparing this, the Horned suffered suffered a crushing triple overtime loss at WVU. It marks the 2nd loss (OkSt) to a bottom feeding Big 12 school in 3 games. While they are still Q2 losses (WVU for now) not taking care of business means TCU needs to come up with probably 2 wins in their last 3 against the two league leaders Texas Tech and KSU and also bubble Texas in the season finale. A sweep of ISU are the best wins but the only wins in the 2-6 mark vs Q1. The 5-4 mark vs Q2 includes wins vs Florida, Baylor and Texas but note they were swept by Oklahoma. SOS of 39 will help but the Frogs are most bubblicious at this point..Play your win in or play your way out.
MOUNTAIN WEST
Autobid: NEVADA
Bubble
(37) UTAH STATE 21-6: Aggies benefitting from the weak bubble but they certainly are not getting in based on one deceiving Q1 win over St Mary's. Their path rests in beating league leading Nevada to pick up that needed Q1 and also avoiding landmines vs San Diego State and Colorado State. Otherwise they will have to win the conference tourney. Just too flimsy here...1-2 vs Q1, 2-3 vs Q2. Its not like anything terrible about the losses but its a case of not beating the tougher teams they played..bubble ASU, Nevada, Houston, BYU. The two conference losses to SDSU and FSU are not terrible either but they really dont have margin of error for them. And even with a win over Nevada, they still need to probably reach the MWC finals
PACIFIC 12
Autobid: WASHINGTON
Bubble
(63) ARIZONA STATE 19-8: The Pac 12 is a hot mess again this year and league wins are fairly benign in the grand scheme of things. Rated 7th, the Pac 12 will not get more than two bids this year but ASU who was a controversial selection last year once again sits in a similar postion. The wins are there but some bad losses and the conference rating drop that overall net to a shaky 63. Still there is that 4-1 mark. Oh the wins..Kansas, Mississippi State, and Washington all NCAA teams plus a win over bubble Utah State. The 4-4 mark in Q2 is clogged up with mediocrity from in league and OOC. The red flags appear with 2 Q4 losses...Wash St and Princeton, plus another Q3 loss to Utah which potentially could be two should Vandy slide back in the NET a few spots. Those are the potential things that can poison a resume should the selection commitee weigh those losses heavily. To compound matters the Sun Devils final 3 games are all on the road to the Oregon schools and rival Arizona, all games in Q2 but do they need to win them all, lose 2 and they will likely need to win the Pac 12 tourney.
SOUTHEASTERN
Autobid: LOUISIANA STATE
Lock: KENTUCKY, TENNESSEE, MISSISSIPPI STATE, MISSISSIPPI
Bubble
(23) AUBURN 17-9: Tigers have struggled no doubt in the SEC now down to 9th place at .500. They just have not been able to knock off any of the top 4 or 5 schools with their best wins being Florida and Alabama those are Q2 wins. 2-7 vs Q1 isnt so hot albeit one of the wins vs Washington is a good one, the other is Texas A&M a 500 school who will likely drop that win to Q2 before the season is done. Note they do have wins over Murray State and Xavier in Q2 and that 7-2 mark helps here. Tigers of 21 help keeping them with a strong overall NET. They have a tough finish after a road trip to Ga, Miss St, Tenn, and Bama loom..what if they lose 3..that is where things could get interesting. Might be the one school benefitting the most from a weak bubble.
(31) FLORIDA 16-11: Gators finally got their feather in their cap win by ousting league leading LSU on the road to resuscitate their flagging NCAA hopes. Given the weakness and lack of true bubble this year its likely that win along with a win at Bama, Ole Miss and Butler will probably be enough for them despite that 2-10 Q1 mark. What it does show is the schedule as been tough and its 29 overall. Gators get two weak sisters and as long as they can take care of them both on the road, they should be fine. A win in either of their closing games vs LSU and at Kentucky would just bolster their seeding.
(53) ALABAMA 17-11: . Beating Kentucky means everything for the Crimson Tide in a year where the bubble is quick weak and small. This year taking caring of business like they did tonight vs So Carolina and getting maybe one more quality win...Auburn coming up should be enough for them. Add in some wins over Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Liberty and Murray State and its not a bad resume. 2-7 vs Q1 and 8-3 vs Q2. The loss to Georgia State sticks out like a sore thumb but probably gets overlooked.
WEST COAST
Autobid: GONZAGA
Bubble
(39) SAINT MARY'S 19-10: Last year the Gaels were snubbed at 28-5, if only the bubble was as weak at this season. At 19-10 somehow they find themselves back on the bubble, not on the good side but the NET of 39 puts them here moreso than anything that they have accomplished this year. Well a matchup at home to close the season with Gonzaga remains, if the SMU can beat the Zags they legit have a chance to such a crappy bubble year. They have one Q1 win now against a very good New Mexico State and the schedule shows some close losses to LSU and Mississippi State. Definitely schedule stronger after last year and that is reflected in the 52 sos mark. Other than just wins over San Diego and San Fransisco are not all that impressive and note I am not considering San Fran a bubble contender like others. Ultimately what is likely going to keep them out are 3 ugly unnecessary Q3 losses..UC Irvine, Pepperdine and Harvard. Perhaps if they had lost only one of them, they could make a stronger case.
32 autobids and 21 locks makes up 53 of the available 68 spots. There are 23 schools competing for 15 spots
Here is the pecking order
IN
1. Syracuse
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Oklahoma
5. Auburn
6. Florida
7. Arizona State
8. Seton Hall
9. Alabama
10. TCU
11. Minnesota
12. North Carolina State
13. Utah State
14. Central Florida
15. Temple
OUT
16. Butler
17. Clemson
18. Georgetown
19. Indiana
20. Saint Mary's
21. Lipscomb
22. Xavier
23. Davidson
LAST 4 IN: NORTH CAROLINA STATE, UTAH STATE, CENTRAL FLORIDA, TEMPLE
LAST 4 OUT: BUTLER, CLEMSON, GEORGETOWN, INDIANA
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