Bac's First NCAA tournament analysis and pecking order: 2/27

[bac2therac]

recapping yesterday

Syracuse won at Wake Forest and I am projecting them as a lock

Clemson gave it a good try but losses at home to UNC in a close one, they really need that one so they will need to close out the regular season with wins and maybe grab a quality win in the ACC tourney

Auburn picks up quality win over Mississippi State and I am moving them to lock status

Alabama blew a lead to LSU that could have clinched a bid. Still in decent shape

Florida suffers an ugly loss to bottom feeding Georgia which is going to keep them worrying a bit albeit still above the last 4 in line.

St Mary's falls to Gonzaga, I think this really ends their shot despite a great overall NET, they just do not have the wins and way too many losses from a school from that league

Utah State takes down Nevada....now either one can be projected as MWC autobid. Nevada is a lock either way. Utahl State is looking golden though I would stop short of officially locking them in

UCF wins at Houston...huge needed win for them. I think they are more solid than the other bubble school Temple that also beat Houston and they did beat Temple in their only meeting. Still need to keep winning to be safe

Murray State and Belmont kept winning in the Ohio Valley

Wofford and Furman kept trucking along in the Southern with wins

Texas got a huge needed win over Iowa State. Its not the resume its the number of losses for them. Win their final games and its likely they are locking in despite the amount of losses

TCU...no shame losing to Texas Tech but that is 5 out of 6 for them and now they are moving to the last 4 in line....not sure a 6-12 mark in league gets them in..need wins

Oklahoma took care of business vs WVU...still at 6-10, want to see one more win for them to avoid 6-12. Quality wins are there.

Ohio State got pantsed by Purdue. Buckeyes still near a lock right now due to the weakness of teams outside the bubble but take care of Northwestern

as said before, Indiana is a serious contender after beating Sparty for the 2nd time...win at Illinois and beat Rutgers and they are close to dancing....great Q1 profile

Butler sustained a 14th loss and I would say their realistic hopes are really low right now...go out and win the BE tourney.

SHU suffered a crushing loss to Gtown...still with the awfulness of the bubble they may just be in right now. Still with two games vs Marquette and Nova left they have to win one. Meanwhile Gtown improving their profile, and could replace SHU if they can take care of De Paul and then Marquette both on the road.



NOT INCLUDING TODAYS GAMES


LAST 4 IN: SETON HALL, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, TCU, TEMPLE


LAST 4 OUT: CLEMSON, INDIANA, GEORGETOWN, XAVIER

 

[shields]

Think the Hall is in trouble.

 

[bac2therac]

they are....because if there is an upset in conference tournaments, schools like VCU, Washington, Wofford, Nevada are getting bids. Plus all 4 schools on the last 4 in line are schools playing their way out of the tourney in the last week or so. The 4 schools on the outside have opportunity to play their way right now.

SHU beating Nova or Marquette will stop the bleeding and could be enough depending on what happens in the BE tourney and other conference tourneys. Still that win over Kentucky is huge for them.

 

[shields]

What if Xavier wins big East? Playing well now. Post season tourney that is.

 

[bac2therac]

Xavier might get an at large if they make the final. Big East will not get more than 4...and still might get 3

 

[NJDOVES]

Bac, will you do my big money bracket for me this year?
Now I know the type of guys I’m going against!!! Lol

 

[bac2therac]

well see when it goes to brackets I am not so good. Too many upsets, its all luck in picking the right upsets on one half of the draw and picking the right fave on the other side. Its another wide open year

 

[G- RUnit]

Utah State is in. They will want western teams. UCF is in.
Curious what happens with Big East with both St. John’s and the Hall slumping. Marquette looked rather pedestrian against Creighton. They are in but Big East looks lame.
Intrigued by Furman, Belmont, Wofford and Murray State. UNC Greensboro still lurking.
NCAA can make a statement rather then picking 6-12 league teams. TCU Really?
Wonder if Toledo will get any love?

 

[blockm2]

St. Johns down to last 4 in status on T-rank's projections and a 12 seed play in game by Lunardi today. They are certainly no longer a lock to make the tourney. Their last game they are going to be underdogs at Xavier and if they lose they will sit at 9-9 in Big East play with a nice 6-5 record in Quad 1, but only 4-4 in Quad 2 and 2-2 in Quad 3.

 

[bac2therac]

I think they are fine barring a run by both Xavier and Seton Hall

The reality is there are only 4 realistic bubble schools currently not projected in along with a bunch of mid majors with flaws

11-9 vs those two quads is better than any school in my pecking order

 

[blockm2]

I think they are fine barring a run by both Xavier and Seton Hall

The reality is there are only 4 realistic bubble schools currently not projected in along with a bunch of mid majors with flaws

11-9 vs those two quads is better than any school in my pecking order

11-9 is nice. 2-2 in Quad 3 is horrible.

 

[bac2therac]

11-9 is nice. 2-2 in Quad 3 is horrible.

Have you seen the teams they are competing against...trash...Clemson..NC State, Georgetown, Xavier, TCU, Temple, St Marys, 15-14 Indiana

 

[G- RUnit]

i ask again how are the quads fair to any mid major team?

 

[bac2therac]

i ask again how are the quads fair to any mid major team?

More fair than rpi was

 

[G- RUnit]

More fair than rpi was

Two wrongs don't make a right.

 

[blockm2]

i ask again how are the quads fair to any mid major team?

what would be fair to a mid major team? Are they supposed to get extra credit for playing against terrible competition?

If you want the best teams in the NCAA tournament, it is going to include some rather mediocre major conference teams. If you want the prettiest records, you are going to include some crappy teams that put up shiny records against terrible competition.

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

I read an article this morning, I forget where someone linked it via twitter, maybe Jeff Towers? It basically said that if Rutgers could win 5 in a row (PSU, IU and then go 3-1 in big ten tourney) that at 19-15 RU would be squarely on the bubble for the ncaa tourney. Now I KNOW this is highly unlikely, <3% chance but cool to read.

 

[TobyTyler1]

unreal Indiana has a shot

they prob have to win last two + one tournament game to be considered?

 

[G- RUnit]

what would be fair to a mid major team? Are they supposed to get extra credit for playing against terrible competition?

If you want the best teams in the NCAA tournament, it is going to include some rather mediocre major conference teams. If you want the prettiest records, you are going to include some crappy teams that put up shiny records against terrible competition.

I would reward excellence. If the Power 5, 6, 7, 8, whatever it is for hoops, are not going to play the mid majors and certainly not going to play them on the road, how is that fair? How are mid majors ever supposed to get quadrant wins? The horrible RPI might be more fair than quadrants. The beauty of March Madness is seeing the Maryland Baltimore Counties, the Loyola Chicago's go on a run. Don't think "crappy teams" is accurate at all.

Oh and BTW Monmouth a few years ago scheduled great competition and had a really nice year and what did it get them?

I don't know what the answer is but it ain't quadrants.

 

[G- RUnit]

unreal Indiana has a shot

they prob have to win last two + one tournament game to be considered?

If Creighton, NC State, Clemson, Butler, TCU and Oklahoma, why not Indiana?

 

[blockm2]

I would reward excellence. If the Power 5, 6, 7, 8, whatever it is for hoops, are not going to play the mid majors and certainly not going to play them on the road, how is that fair? How are mid majors ever supposed to get quadrant wins? The horrible RPI might be more fair than quadrants. The beauty of March Madness is seeing the Maryland Baltimore Counties, the Loyola Chicago's go on a run. Don't think "crappy teams" is accurate at all.

Oh and BTW Monmouth a few years ago scheduled great competition and had a really nice year and what did it get them?

I don't know what the answer is but it ain't quadrants.

Quadrants are basically breaking wins and losses into degrees of difficulty. You can totally get rid of them. It doesn't change the point that small conference teams pad their W/L record against bad competition.

Pretending like mid major teams with nice records are "good" is funny. They are only deserving of going to the tourney if you reward beating bad competition. Funny you mention the Monmouth team that lost to everyone with a pulse they played. Their best win of the season was beating Princeton at home. You don't get bonus points for losing to good teams. That Monmouth team wasn't very good despite their shiny conference record. They got bounced in the first round of the NIT by a pedestrian Ole Miss at home.

 

[G- RUnit]

Quadrants are basically breaking wins and losses into degrees of difficulty. You can totally get rid of them. It doesn't change the point that small conference teams pad their W/L record against bad competition.

Pretending like mid major teams with nice records are "good" is funny. They are only deserving of going to the tourney if you reward beating bad competition. Funny you mention the Monmouth team that lost to everyone with a pulse they played. Their best win of the season was beating Princeton at home. You don't get bonus points for losing to good teams. That Monmouth team wasn't very good despite their shiny conference record. They got bounced in the first round of the NIT by a pedestrian Ole Miss at home.

NIT losses mean nothing especially when its a let down rather than a reward. Define bad competition?