bac and others have done a terrific job recapping last night so I wanted to supplement that with a look at the Big Ten right now.
TIER ONE
1. Michigan State (4-0) - No doubt about it, the class of the league. Cassius Winston is returning to form after a family tragedy that understandably impacted his play. Xavier Tillman is a beast inside and along with Winston gives them two very talented upperclassmen. Combine that with a HOF coach and good things are going to happen. The one weakness is outside shooting but even that has ticked up with Foster Loyer, Aaron Henry, and Gabe Brown shooting better lately. Loyer is the secret key here... at one point he hit 9 of out 10 three pointers BUT it remains to be seen if he can stay on the floor against Big Ten teams. His minutes in the four Big Ten games so far: 3, 3, 14, 4.
TIER TWO
2. Maryland (3-1) - It doesn't really feel like it but the Terps have been living up to the preseason top-10 hype. They haven't been dominant for too many long stretches and they've gotten pushed by teams like Temple and Harvard but they've gotten the job done in the last two games beating Indiana and Ohio State by a combined 28 points, albeit both at home. Anthony Cowan is a senior point guard which is as good as gold in this league, and Jalen Smith will be in the NBA next season. The scary thing is that Aaron Wiggins and Eric Ayala, who both shot over 40% on threes last season, haven't gotten going yet this year. They're both sub-30% right now. That will regress in a positive direction and make the Terps scary. Oh, and they got rid of two underachieving freshman twins who were possibly locker room cancers and essentially replaced them with another freshman, 7'2" former top-10 recruit Chol Marial. Not bad.
3. Ohio State (1-3) - I know, I know, they're 1-3, how can I have them third? Well they had the most impressive non-conference run of any team in the B1G. They aren't as good as the top-5 ranking they rose to, but they're still poised to be a great team once glue guy Kyle Young returns from his appendicitis. Their ridiculously hot shooting was bound to cool off a bit but the ceiling for this offense remains as high as anyone in the conference. Kaleb Wesson is in better shape and is one of the best in the country at drawing fouls. EJ Liddell is basically what Ron Harper is, and Duane Washington is a sharpshooter. Last year you could beat them by shutting Wesson down, but they have more weapons this time around.
4. Michigan (1-2) - The Wolverines have had a tough start to Big Ten play, but losses at Illinois and at Michigan State are understandable. They didn't take a bad loss in the non-conference either, only at Louisville and Oregon at home in overtime. Once they get some home games against the middle and lower part of the conference, they'll be just fine. They're currently missing Isaiah Livers who's out with a groin injury, but when healthy the trio of him, Zavier Simpson, and Jon Teske make this team extremely hard to defend. Simpson is the slashing point guard, Teske is the big presence inside, and Livers is the outside shooting specialist. You can't bend your defense too much to take any of these away because the others will kill you. Eli Brooks and David DeJulius are also quality shooters. The good news is that they lost defensive coach Luke Yaklich and their defense, which was elite, is now merely very good.
5. Rutgers (3-1) - I don't necessarily think we finish the season this high but I don't see how you put anybody else ahead of us at this point with how the season has gone. I'll have another thread with extended Rutgers thoughts either later today or tomorrow.
6. Illinois (2-2) - The Illini have also had a tough schedule early on, facing Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue. So they're better than their 2-2 record thanks to Kofi Cockburn, who is just ridiculous inside at 7'0" 290 pounds of muscle. They've switched their defense from the all-out press to more of a halfcourt pressure and the results have been very positive. They've fallen from 1st to 12th in the conference in terms of turnovers, but offset that by improving in every other metric and are currently rated tops in the conference (having a rim protector like Cockburn helps). They held Purdue to 37 points and held Maryland and Michigan below their averages. The achilles heel with this team is their shooting and a tendency to go ice cold, as they did in the losses to Missouri, Michigan State, and the first half against Miami.
7. Penn State (2-2) - Even though Rutgers won I was still having nightmares of Myreon Jones splashing the net last night. He gives the Nittany Lions a badly-needed second option to Lamar Stevens. The issues with this team are (stop me if you've heard this one) three point shooting and foul trouble. Aside from M. Jones, you're not worried about anybody else on the roster shooting from deep. And Stevens and Mike Watkins have not been able to stay on the floor because of fouls. The two seniors are historically better at avoiding the whistle so I'd expect them to improve in that department.
8. Wisconsin (2-1) - The Badgers are 4-0 since getting transfer Micah Potter eligible. He's not the big reason for that, but adding a second big body to their rotation certainly has helped. The defense has been terrific since the loss to Rutgers, holding Tennessee to 48, Rider to 37, and Ohio State to 57, made more impressive by the fact it was at Tennessee and at Ohio State. They lack a dynamic playmaker on offense, but they do everything else reasonably well. They beat Indiana at home by 20 and won on the road at Ohio State, but they also took two bad non-conference losses so I can't justify bumping them any higher.
9. Iowa (1-3) - They have the 5th best offense in the country according to KenPom but I can't help but think that's going to come down. Without Jordan Bohannon at point guard this team is a lot easier to defend. Freshman Joe Toussaint is a good slasher but you don't need to guard him on the perimeter (he's 4-22 on three-pointers) which means his defender can play back near the foul line to help try and deny entry passes to Luka Garza. The big man has been playing like the B1G POTY favorite so far, but Iowa has been beaten three times despite Garza going for 44/8 (Michigan), 34/12 (Penn State), and 16/18 (Nebraska). He's going to get his numbers so you've just got to try to limit his efficiency and make him make jumpers, not easy ones at the rim. Joe Wieskamp is the other weapon to shut down but beyond that they don't have much. Freshman CJ Fredrick is an elite three-point shooter and will be back soon from an ankle injury but even with him this team doesn't have much depth. Against Penn State (without Fredrick) 87% of their points were scored by Garza, Toussaint, and Fredrick. They haven't gotten any better at defense so they're beatable even on the days where their offense is white-hot. They scored 1.23 points per possession against Michigan and 1.15 against Penn State... and lost both games.
TIER TWO AND A HALF
10. Minnesota (2-2) - This is a team that's taken some time to settle in. They're a bit like Michigan with the slasher-inside-outside trio of Marcus Carr, Daniel Oturu, and Gabe Kalscheur. The difference is Michigan's depth is much better, and they're better coached (sorry, Richard). The Gophers' starting five is better than much of the league, but, well, there's a reason Carr is asked to played 40 minutes a game. In fact thanks to a double OT game he's averaging 41.25 minutes per game in B1G play. The Ohio State win is a bit confounding because they haven't really done much else that's impressive, but they also don't have a bad loss: the worst is at Utah, which is a tough place to play as Kentucky found out.
11. Indiana (1-2) - Archie Miller's seat might get real warm, real fast. Despite bringing in a 5-star recruit for the second straight year, the Hoosiers have still scuffled. They choked away a lead against Arkansas and then looked helpless against Maryland. The offense is more or less dependent on that 5-star, Trayce Jackson-Davis, who is an extremely gifted inside scorer. The guard play has been nothing special and the offense lacks flow. Since their one impressive win (home vs. Florida State), Indiana has lost by 20 at pre-Potter Wisconsin, won close, ugly games against UConn, Nebraska, and Notre Dame, and lost to Arkansas and Maryland.
TIER THREE
12. Purdue (2-2) - This is going to seem low but the Boilermakers have major problems on the offensive end. The team is less than the sum of the individual parts: Matt Haarms and Trevion Williams are good inside, Sasha Stefanovic is right out of the Ryan Cline/Grady Eifort catalog, Jahaad Proctor is a (very) poor man's Carsen Edwards, and Eric Hunter and Aaron Wheeler are capable of being good shooters. But it's not just working. Nojel Eastern has taken a giant step back and might have the yips, he's missing easy layups at this point. In four conference games they've scored 58 against Northwestern, 56 against Nebraska, 62 in regulation against Minnesota, and 37 against Illinois. The schedule gets way tougher from there. I'm not going to count out Matt Painter's ability to fix things, but the switch needs to flip soon.
13. Nebraska (2-2) - The Rutgers loss is actually the outlier, at least in conference play. They've beaten Iowa and Purdue and pushed Indiana to overtime in Bloomington. They've benefited from some luck as they've "allowed" just 18.5% of three-pointers to go in during the four B1G games. That number will regress. Michigan led the conference at 29.2% last year. With the deeper line, I figure the best team will allow something like 26-27% this year. So 18.5% is crazy low. And since they're going to continue to get crushed inside the defense as a whole will take a tumble. Cam Mack is second in the conference in assist rate and can get wherever he wants to on the floor. Unfortunately Haanif Cheatham and Thorir Thorbjarnarson are the only ones giving him help, and they're mostly limited to catch-and-shoot against Big Ten defenses.
TIER FOUR
14. Northwestern (0-3) - The Wildcats can be a little bit frisky (losses by just 5 to Michigan State and 9 at Minnesota) but any loss to them is a bad loss. I expect them to go something like 4-16, so that means three tournament hopefuls and Nebraska are going to have that blemish. Sophomore Miller Kopp has started to play to his four-star ranking, and freshman Boo Buie is going to be a solid point guard for them. Unfortunately Northwestern has been hit by the injury bug which they could ill-afford. Buie is out for a while with a stress fracture and they have little reason to rush him back. AJ Turner should be back soon, but Anthony Gaines is out for the year. Former lacrosse player Pat Spencer is a warrior and he had 22 points and 8 assists against Minnesota, but his stats are the quintessential "high-usage guy on a bad team" stats.
TIER ONE
1. Michigan State (4-0) - No doubt about it, the class of the league. Cassius Winston is returning to form after a family tragedy that understandably impacted his play. Xavier Tillman is a beast inside and along with Winston gives them two very talented upperclassmen. Combine that with a HOF coach and good things are going to happen. The one weakness is outside shooting but even that has ticked up with Foster Loyer, Aaron Henry, and Gabe Brown shooting better lately. Loyer is the secret key here... at one point he hit 9 of out 10 three pointers BUT it remains to be seen if he can stay on the floor against Big Ten teams. His minutes in the four Big Ten games so far: 3, 3, 14, 4.
TIER TWO
2. Maryland (3-1) - It doesn't really feel like it but the Terps have been living up to the preseason top-10 hype. They haven't been dominant for too many long stretches and they've gotten pushed by teams like Temple and Harvard but they've gotten the job done in the last two games beating Indiana and Ohio State by a combined 28 points, albeit both at home. Anthony Cowan is a senior point guard which is as good as gold in this league, and Jalen Smith will be in the NBA next season. The scary thing is that Aaron Wiggins and Eric Ayala, who both shot over 40% on threes last season, haven't gotten going yet this year. They're both sub-30% right now. That will regress in a positive direction and make the Terps scary. Oh, and they got rid of two underachieving freshman twins who were possibly locker room cancers and essentially replaced them with another freshman, 7'2" former top-10 recruit Chol Marial. Not bad.
3. Ohio State (1-3) - I know, I know, they're 1-3, how can I have them third? Well they had the most impressive non-conference run of any team in the B1G. They aren't as good as the top-5 ranking they rose to, but they're still poised to be a great team once glue guy Kyle Young returns from his appendicitis. Their ridiculously hot shooting was bound to cool off a bit but the ceiling for this offense remains as high as anyone in the conference. Kaleb Wesson is in better shape and is one of the best in the country at drawing fouls. EJ Liddell is basically what Ron Harper is, and Duane Washington is a sharpshooter. Last year you could beat them by shutting Wesson down, but they have more weapons this time around.
4. Michigan (1-2) - The Wolverines have had a tough start to Big Ten play, but losses at Illinois and at Michigan State are understandable. They didn't take a bad loss in the non-conference either, only at Louisville and Oregon at home in overtime. Once they get some home games against the middle and lower part of the conference, they'll be just fine. They're currently missing Isaiah Livers who's out with a groin injury, but when healthy the trio of him, Zavier Simpson, and Jon Teske make this team extremely hard to defend. Simpson is the slashing point guard, Teske is the big presence inside, and Livers is the outside shooting specialist. You can't bend your defense too much to take any of these away because the others will kill you. Eli Brooks and David DeJulius are also quality shooters. The good news is that they lost defensive coach Luke Yaklich and their defense, which was elite, is now merely very good.
5. Rutgers (3-1) - I don't necessarily think we finish the season this high but I don't see how you put anybody else ahead of us at this point with how the season has gone. I'll have another thread with extended Rutgers thoughts either later today or tomorrow.
6. Illinois (2-2) - The Illini have also had a tough schedule early on, facing Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue. So they're better than their 2-2 record thanks to Kofi Cockburn, who is just ridiculous inside at 7'0" 290 pounds of muscle. They've switched their defense from the all-out press to more of a halfcourt pressure and the results have been very positive. They've fallen from 1st to 12th in the conference in terms of turnovers, but offset that by improving in every other metric and are currently rated tops in the conference (having a rim protector like Cockburn helps). They held Purdue to 37 points and held Maryland and Michigan below their averages. The achilles heel with this team is their shooting and a tendency to go ice cold, as they did in the losses to Missouri, Michigan State, and the first half against Miami.
7. Penn State (2-2) - Even though Rutgers won I was still having nightmares of Myreon Jones splashing the net last night. He gives the Nittany Lions a badly-needed second option to Lamar Stevens. The issues with this team are (stop me if you've heard this one) three point shooting and foul trouble. Aside from M. Jones, you're not worried about anybody else on the roster shooting from deep. And Stevens and Mike Watkins have not been able to stay on the floor because of fouls. The two seniors are historically better at avoiding the whistle so I'd expect them to improve in that department.
8. Wisconsin (2-1) - The Badgers are 4-0 since getting transfer Micah Potter eligible. He's not the big reason for that, but adding a second big body to their rotation certainly has helped. The defense has been terrific since the loss to Rutgers, holding Tennessee to 48, Rider to 37, and Ohio State to 57, made more impressive by the fact it was at Tennessee and at Ohio State. They lack a dynamic playmaker on offense, but they do everything else reasonably well. They beat Indiana at home by 20 and won on the road at Ohio State, but they also took two bad non-conference losses so I can't justify bumping them any higher.
9. Iowa (1-3) - They have the 5th best offense in the country according to KenPom but I can't help but think that's going to come down. Without Jordan Bohannon at point guard this team is a lot easier to defend. Freshman Joe Toussaint is a good slasher but you don't need to guard him on the perimeter (he's 4-22 on three-pointers) which means his defender can play back near the foul line to help try and deny entry passes to Luka Garza. The big man has been playing like the B1G POTY favorite so far, but Iowa has been beaten three times despite Garza going for 44/8 (Michigan), 34/12 (Penn State), and 16/18 (Nebraska). He's going to get his numbers so you've just got to try to limit his efficiency and make him make jumpers, not easy ones at the rim. Joe Wieskamp is the other weapon to shut down but beyond that they don't have much. Freshman CJ Fredrick is an elite three-point shooter and will be back soon from an ankle injury but even with him this team doesn't have much depth. Against Penn State (without Fredrick) 87% of their points were scored by Garza, Toussaint, and Fredrick. They haven't gotten any better at defense so they're beatable even on the days where their offense is white-hot. They scored 1.23 points per possession against Michigan and 1.15 against Penn State... and lost both games.
TIER TWO AND A HALF
10. Minnesota (2-2) - This is a team that's taken some time to settle in. They're a bit like Michigan with the slasher-inside-outside trio of Marcus Carr, Daniel Oturu, and Gabe Kalscheur. The difference is Michigan's depth is much better, and they're better coached (sorry, Richard). The Gophers' starting five is better than much of the league, but, well, there's a reason Carr is asked to played 40 minutes a game. In fact thanks to a double OT game he's averaging 41.25 minutes per game in B1G play. The Ohio State win is a bit confounding because they haven't really done much else that's impressive, but they also don't have a bad loss: the worst is at Utah, which is a tough place to play as Kentucky found out.
11. Indiana (1-2) - Archie Miller's seat might get real warm, real fast. Despite bringing in a 5-star recruit for the second straight year, the Hoosiers have still scuffled. They choked away a lead against Arkansas and then looked helpless against Maryland. The offense is more or less dependent on that 5-star, Trayce Jackson-Davis, who is an extremely gifted inside scorer. The guard play has been nothing special and the offense lacks flow. Since their one impressive win (home vs. Florida State), Indiana has lost by 20 at pre-Potter Wisconsin, won close, ugly games against UConn, Nebraska, and Notre Dame, and lost to Arkansas and Maryland.
TIER THREE
12. Purdue (2-2) - This is going to seem low but the Boilermakers have major problems on the offensive end. The team is less than the sum of the individual parts: Matt Haarms and Trevion Williams are good inside, Sasha Stefanovic is right out of the Ryan Cline/Grady Eifort catalog, Jahaad Proctor is a (very) poor man's Carsen Edwards, and Eric Hunter and Aaron Wheeler are capable of being good shooters. But it's not just working. Nojel Eastern has taken a giant step back and might have the yips, he's missing easy layups at this point. In four conference games they've scored 58 against Northwestern, 56 against Nebraska, 62 in regulation against Minnesota, and 37 against Illinois. The schedule gets way tougher from there. I'm not going to count out Matt Painter's ability to fix things, but the switch needs to flip soon.
13. Nebraska (2-2) - The Rutgers loss is actually the outlier, at least in conference play. They've beaten Iowa and Purdue and pushed Indiana to overtime in Bloomington. They've benefited from some luck as they've "allowed" just 18.5% of three-pointers to go in during the four B1G games. That number will regress. Michigan led the conference at 29.2% last year. With the deeper line, I figure the best team will allow something like 26-27% this year. So 18.5% is crazy low. And since they're going to continue to get crushed inside the defense as a whole will take a tumble. Cam Mack is second in the conference in assist rate and can get wherever he wants to on the floor. Unfortunately Haanif Cheatham and Thorir Thorbjarnarson are the only ones giving him help, and they're mostly limited to catch-and-shoot against Big Ten defenses.
TIER FOUR
14. Northwestern (0-3) - The Wildcats can be a little bit frisky (losses by just 5 to Michigan State and 9 at Minnesota) but any loss to them is a bad loss. I expect them to go something like 4-16, so that means three tournament hopefuls and Nebraska are going to have that blemish. Sophomore Miller Kopp has started to play to his four-star ranking, and freshman Boo Buie is going to be a solid point guard for them. Unfortunately Northwestern has been hit by the injury bug which they could ill-afford. Buie is out for a while with a stress fracture and they have little reason to rush him back. AJ Turner should be back soon, but Anthony Gaines is out for the year. Former lacrosse player Pat Spencer is a warrior and he had 22 points and 8 assists against Minnesota, but his stats are the quintessential "high-usage guy on a bad team" stats.
