Bryce Dortch...please burn the Redshirt....!!

[NewJerseyHawk]

I'm really not kidding about burning the redshirt, because there's an argument to be made that RU is no worse offensively AND better defensively and with rebounding by playing frosh Bryce Dortch ASAP.

Here are the bars we need to exceed, which are exactly the same ones I asked for with playing Dylan Grant for Martini earlier.

Below are some stats against P4 teams....that does not include Princeton, Kennesaw State, Columbia, Monmouth St Peters, Merrimack etc. It includes B1G, SEC, ACC and Seton Hall (even though SHU is having a terrible season). This is not to crush our players, I am rooting for all and anyone that puts on the RU uniform, but the stark difference over 10, 11 or 12 Powet 4/5 games, warrants Dortch playing.

I didn't include Aciff because his injury and play has already been added to the lineup on a smaller scale. These are 3 assumptions with Dortch that I think are relatively SAFE ones.

A) Dortch being able to be mobile (CHECK).

B) Dortch being 6'9 and capable of putting his arms up on defense and moving his feet (CHECK)

C) Dortch being able to rebound defensively AND find an occasional offensive rebound and putback (LIKELY CHECK).

Keep in mind I'm not discussing 3 point shooting, otherwise I would include PJ Hayes, but my goal is to try and keep teams from scoring 75 to 80PPG when we are not at the RAC.

JMike Davis
11-38 FG (29%)
180 minutes
12 games
30 PTS (2.5 PPG)
Defense is very good, but undersized.

Ogbole
14-24 FG
38 PTS
192 minutes
12 games (3.1 PPG)
Rebounds well vs Sommerville but possible Dortch can find some rebounds with more storing...Ogbole switching on defense is an adventure, but not fair to ask him to guard wings or guards.

Martini
7-19 FG
22 PTS
129 minutes
10 games
(2.2PPG)
Great game vs Nebraska is 1 out of 10 games, with 11 of his 22 total points against Power 4 level players). Expecting 11 PTS in any remaining game is possible maybe 1 to 2 more times IMO)

Derkack
22-62 FG.
232 minutes
11 games
65 PTS
15 TOs
(5.9PPG)
Not sure Dortch for Derkack is an answer, but it's not impossible

J Will
34-71 FG
292 minutes
88 PTS
28 TOs (way too many)
12 games
(7.7 PPG)
Unlikely but if the turnovers continue with JWill, I'm open for the discussion.

Grant (including Texas A&M & Ohio State)
17-34 FG
125 minutes
40 PTS
7 games
(5.7 PPGl

Grant (since 33-17 deficit vs Wisconsin)
98 minutes
17-28 FG
40 PTS
5 Games
(8PPG)

This doesn't mean that Grant's productivity is going to continue at this type of pace. BUT I don't feel like any of his productivity is FORCED or having to be a bunch of 3s.

So, why do I think Dortch is ready or can help just like Dylan Grant...?? What are the other options above, that are MUST have players on offense, defense, rebounding and SCORING POINTS??

Can I guarantee Dortch scores more than JMike Davis, Ogbole, Martini in the same 12 to 15 minutes a game?? We aren't talking 8PPG, it's a bar of 2 to 3PPG.

What about the perimeter defense.....?? Well, the tape CLEARLY shows that an ability to switch on defense, allows Dortch to be a factor against an Ace Baldwin, Freddie Dilone, or anyone else on our schedule.

If Martini plays 20 minutes and takes 4 3 pointers, a best case average scenario is that he hits 2 of 4 most nights.......but in the instance of 1-4 or 0-3, there's still 12, 15 or 20 minutes of not good on the ball defense, no chance to alter shots and unlikely rebounds or put backs.

My SAFE assumption is even for the 7 to 8 minutes that Ace Bailey isn't on the floor, is better suited for Dortch for rebounding and defense.....and if Dortch is on the floor when Harper is out and Bailey is on the court, at least we have another defense/rebounding option.

I don't make up the numbers, these are what they are. With 12 games left and a sample size of information, what do we have to lose with the numbers above outside of JWill at guard?? There are valuable bench minutes where we need something and right now, we're not getting any PPG from JMike, Ogbole, Martini or even Derkack.

Burn the redshirt.....Grant will eventually need help or support on the court and someone else not named Bailey and Harper cannot carry this roster.

 

[RUSCFORMERLYRULOU]

Hawk,
let’s just entertain your idea for a minute.
1. At this point in the season, why would Dortch agree to burn it- or get hurt - in what is most definitively a lost season?
2. As you well know I’m down on Pike - but if we buy his argument that Grant wasn’t ready to play until recently, why do you think Dortch is?
3. Why are you clinging to false hope?

 

[RUChoppin]

Can Dortch play 2G?

 

[RUDivision]

I'm really not kidding about burning the redshirt, because there's an argument to be made that RU is no worse offensively AND better defensively and with rebounding by playing frosh Bryce Dortch ASAP.

Here are the bars we need to exceed, which are exactly the same ones I asked for with playing Dylan Grant for Martini earlier.

Below are some stats against P4 teams....that does not include Princeton, Kennesaw State, Columbia, Monmouth St Peters, Merrimack etc. It includes B1G, SEC, ACC and Seton Hall (even though SHU is having a terrible season). This is not to crush our players, I am rooting for all and anyone that puts on the RU uniform, but the stark difference over 10, 11 or 12 Powet 4/5 games, warrants Dortch playing.

I didn't include Aciff because his injury and play has already been added to the lineup on a smaller scale. These are 3 assumptions with Dortch that I think are relatively SAFE ones.

A) Dortch being able to be mobile (CHECK).

B) Dortch being 6'9 and capable of putting his arms up on defense and moving his feet (CHECK)

C) Dortch being able to rebound defensively AND find an occasional offensive rebound and putback (LIKELY CHECK).

Keep in mind I'm not discussing 3 point shooting, otherwise I would include PJ Hayes, but my goal is to try and keep teams from scoring 75 to 80PPG when we are not at the RAC.

JMike Davis
11-38 FG (29%)
180 minutes
12 games
30 PTS (2.5 PPG)
Defense is very good, but undersized.

Ogbole
14-24 FG
38 PTS
192 minutes
12 games (3.1 PPG)
Rebounds well vs Sommerville but possible Dortch can find some rebounds with more storing...Ogbole switching on defense is an adventure, but not fair to ask him to guard wings or guards.

Martini
7-19 FG
22 PTS
129 minutes
10 games
(2.2PPG)
Great game vs Nebraska is 1 out of 10 games, with 11 of his 22 total points against Power 4 level players). Expecting 11 PTS in any remaining game is possible maybe 1 to 2 more times IMO)

Derkack
22-62 FG.
232 minutes
11 games
65 PTS
15 TOs
(5.9PPG)
Not sure Dortch for Derkack is an answer, but it's not impossible

J Will
34-71 FG
292 minutes
88 PTS
28 TOs (way too many)
12 games
(7.7 PPG)
Unlikely but if the turnovers continue with JWill, I'm open for the discussion.

Grant (including Texas A&M & Ohio State)
17-34 FG
125 minutes
40 PTS
7 games
(5.7 PPGl

Grant (since 33-17 deficit vs Wisconsin)
98 minutes
17-28 FG
40 PTS
5 Games
(8PPG)

This doesn't mean that Grant's productivity is going to continue at this type of pace. BUT I don't feel like any of his productivity is FORCED or having to be a bunch of 3s.

So, why do I think Dortch is ready or can help just like Dylan Grant...?? What are the other options above, that are MUST have players on offense, defense, rebounding and SCORING POINTS??

Can I guarantee Dortch scores more than JMike Davis, Ogbole, Martini in the same 12 to 15 minutes a game?? We aren't talking 8PPG, it's a bar of 2 to 3PPG.

What about the perimeter defense.....?? Well, the tape CLEARLY shows that an ability to switch on defense, allows Dortch to be a factor against an Ace Baldwin, Freddie Dilone, or anyone else on our schedule.

If Martini plays 20 minutes and takes 4 3 pointers, a best case average scenario is that he hits 2 of 4 most nights.......but in the instance of 1-4 or 0-3, there's still 12, 15 or 20 minutes of not good on the ball defense, no chance to alter shots and unlikely rebounds or put backs.

My SAFE assumption is even for the 7 to 8 minutes that Ace Bailey isn't on the floor, is better suited for Dortch for rebounding and defense.....and if Dortch is on the floor when Harper is out and Bailey is on the court, at least we have another defense/rebounding option.

I don't make up the numbers, these are what they are. With 12 games left and a sample size of information, what do we have to lose with the numbers above outside of JWill at guard?? There are valuable bench minutes where we need something and right now, we're not getting any PPG from JMike, Ogbole, Martini or even Derkack.

Burn the redshirt.....Grant will eventually need help or support on the court and someone else not named Bailey and Harper cannot carry this roster.

Hawk I am with you but probably not in the best interest of the young man. I could argue if NIL is important to Dortch playing the rest of the season and having good tape is beneficial.

Grant being this good after sitting half the season is just another mark against Pike.

 

[RUDivision]

Can Dortch play 2G?

Probably not but we could slide Ace into the 2g .
Based on matchups you could go the 5 Freshman and have Dylan at the 1 and Ace at the 2. Obviously matchup dependant. (Pike would have the length for his press)

 

[Knight Owl]

Hear! Hear!
Fab 5!
Let’s find out what BD’s limitations truly are!
Plus, he should be eating pizza while on the bench during games in order to get that mozzarell…a in those bones of his!

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Hawk,
let’s just entertain your idea for a minute.
1. At this point in the season, why would Dortch agree to burn it- or get hurt - in what is most definitively a lost season?
2. As you well know I’m down on Pike - but if we buy his argument that Grant wasn’t ready to play until recently, why do you think Dortch is?
3. Why are you clinging to false hope?

Do we beat Nebraska with Grant playing zero minutes??.....Probably not....or NO

Do we beat UCLA with Grant playing zero minutes??......Maybe, but unlikely to NO

Are we in the game with PSU with 8 minutes left, with Grant playing no minutes.......NO.....someone else has to generate his 7PTS and 3 REBS in 20 minutes. There's no player in the original thread averaging 7PPG in the amount of time and most are averaging 12 to 15 or more minutes per game.

Are most of these B1G games, likely to be within 4 to 6 points, with 5 minutes left in the game?? YES, if the games are likely competitive most nights.

if someone says playing 12 to 15 minutes a game for 12 games is a lost season, why is that true?? There's 180 minutes of playing time that is probably worth 5 to 7PPG in terms of offense OR defense.

If Dortch scores 6PPG and prevents an additional 4PPG, that's probably 5 to 6 additional wins vs losses. Most games are within 5 to 7 points in conferences like the B1G.

The options presented are below for 12 Power 4/5 opponents

JMike 2.5PPG
Martini 2PPG
Ogbole 3.1 PPG

Let's leave Derkack and JWill out of the equations.

If Ace Bailey plays 33 to 35 Minutes a game, there's 5 to 7 minutes there.

If Dylan Harper plays 33 to 34 minutes a game, there's another 6 minutes there.

I am assuming that either Ace or Dylan Harper are on the court. My ideal situation is to add Dortch with either Ace and Dylan on the court OR while BOTH Ace and Dylan are on the court.

This is a 1-7 B1G record in my opinion, without Dylan Grant playing in the last 5 games. I am not going to say that Dylan Harper being sick, didn't impact us vs Wisconsin, Purdue and Indiana, but there are games where Ace or Harper are not going to score 20+ PTS or more

If RU can win 5 more games this year by burning his redshirt, it is 100% worth it. I will repeat, Dylan Grant had NO support or consistent playing time for WEEKS. It is a minor miracle that he's played this well.....BUT the options were JMike, Derkack, Ogbole and Martini.

Why is it impossible to think we can't get more than 3PPG in 15 to 20 minutes, from a 6'9 mobile frosh, who has upside, if I'm getting 8PPG in a short sample size from Dylan Grant??

 

[GoFish2]

Bryce Dortch isn't saving the team or the season. This is the height of silliness.

 

[Richie O]

Bryce Dortch isn't saving the team or the season. This is the height of silliness.

Correct. He needs a lot of work still, especially on the offensive end.

 

[GoFish2]

Correct. He needs a lot of work still, especially on the offensive end.

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Hawk apparently thinks he's good for 6 additional wins in our final 12 games. I mean, wow.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Hawk apparently thinks he's good for 6 additional wins in our final 12 games. I mean, wow.

He's no worse than 3PPG, but you also said I was wrong when I asked for Grant to play, so at worse, I am 1 out of 2.....

 

[willisneverrana43]

And Dortch here. Everyone thought the Dortch was brain damaged.

 

[Mholinko]

i mean realistically what is the difference at this juncture of the season

if he was ready to play he wouldve probably gotten some burn the same time grant finally did when we were in desperation mode 2 weeks ago

if grant is going to help us go 9-3 over the last 12 and make the tournament then Pike is a horrendous evaluator and should be fired even if we make the tournament

that being said... dortch isnt going to get us 9 wins so its a moot point

 

[BossNJ]

Correct. He needs a lot of work still, especially on the offensive end.

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He’s on a P4 scholarship with that shooting stroke??

Come on man. A 6th grade kid got a better stroke than that.

He’s supposed to be ready for what next year?

That’s embarrassing and he wouldn’t have a spot on any other team but Pike’s.

 

[GoFish2]

He's no worse than 3PPG, but you also said I was wrong when I asked for Grant to play, so at worse, I am 1 out of 2.....

Yeah, that wasn't me.

 

[RUBlackout]

Don’t need Dortch right now BUT why even use ref shirts anymore. Complete waste and rather get the kid game time for exposure so he isn’t a true deer in headlights next year

That said..what worked for us is a limited rotation of players that helped us win. Max 8.

Instead last night we went back to 10 again and in typical Pike fashion subbed wrong players at the wrong time to help us lose. He is consistent in finding ways to
Lose games

 

[superfan01]

Don't think the 12th man on the roster is the savior to this season.

Bottom line is pike blew it in the portal. He whiffed on his evaluations.

 

[RUBlackout]

Don't think the 12th man on the roster is the savior to this season.

Bottom line is pike blew it in the portal. He whiffed on his evaluations.

I don’t even think that it’s Pike whiffed on kids. These guys were players at different levels/teams.
He doesn’t put players in beat position to succeed.

Look back to last night. ace created everything for himself. I only saw one play ran for him where he hit a 3. All on him to create in ISO AND he only took 15 shots.

 

[seansherm]

I just don't see where Dortch makes a difference. Hawk puts a lot of IF into his post. Where are you playing him? In place of EO? He'd add the same limited offense, rebound worse, and probably get crushed in the post to be a net negative. Backing up Grant? Maybe he plays a little better D than Martini, but again, all accounts is he'd be worse offensively. Being tall and long doesn't make you an upgrade. If he was ready to play Pike would probably play him.

 

[RUDivision]

I just don't see where Dortch makes a difference. Hawk puts a lot of IF into his post. Where are you playing him? In place of EO? He'd add the same limited offense, rebound worse, and probably get crushed in the post to be a net negative. Backing up Grant? Maybe he plays a little better D than Martini, but again, all accounts is he'd be worse offensively. Being tall and long doesn't make you an upgrade. If he was ready to play Pike would probably play him.

That’s questionable since Pike wasted Grant for half a year. Pike also thinks JMike, Martini, Dercack, and Jwill are ready to play and play big minutes.,,(How do they look?)

So will pause on if Pike thought he was ready.

Pike plays favorites and puts kids in the doghouse and it’s cost us one NCAA tournament bid already.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

I am looking at wing defense and an occasional rebound and put backs and a couple of players who can drive and score in the paint. If Dortch can't play at this level, someone else next year will outplay him. For now, if it's Martini or bust to get stops and rebounds on defense, then we know how that's going to end.

 

[Mholinko]

Why don’t we just stop treating the rotation like a rec basketball league and cut it to an 8 man rotation like most self respecting P4 schools do

Start the 4 freshmen and give EO and Williams some minutes

Acuff, martini and dercack can fight for the rest based on matchup … no more JD

I’m tired of seeing 10 guys play just for the sake of inclusion at the expense of cohesion and the inevitable 10-0 run by the other team because you’re at some point going to have 5 bad players on the court at once because you’re promised them minutes

 

[seansherm]

That’s questionable since Pike wasted Grant for half a year. Pike also thinks JMike, Martini, Dercack, and Jwill are ready to play and play big minutes.,,(How do they look?)

So will pause on if Pike thought he was ready.

Pike plays favorites and puts kids in the doghouse and it’s cost us one NCAA tournament bid already.

Grant was coming off a senior year in which he didn't play. You honestly think Pike was sitting him, just to sit him? He tried giving him a little run earlier, and Grant responded by putting up shots at a rate Dylan and Ace do, and didn't do much else in his limited time. Maybe he had to go back to the bench to learn/understand what role he was needed to fill.

 

[seansherm]

I am looking at wing defense and an occasional rebound and put backs and a couple of players who can drive and score in the paint. If Dortch can't play at this level, someone else next year will outplay him. For now, if it's Martini or bust to get stops and rebounds on defense, then we know how that's going to end.

Over the last three games, pretty much every line up that included Martini has outperformed the opposition in their time on the court. I think Martini is fine in a 12-15 minute role back up for Grant.

Dortch will be able to play at this level, it just may not be as a freshman. I do believe you don't throw a kid who isn't ready out there to kill his confidence.

 

[seansherm]

Why don’t we just stop treating the rotation like a rec basketball league and cut it to an 8 man rotation like most self respecting P4 schools do

Start the 4 freshmen and give EO and Williams some minutes

Acuff, martini and dercack can fight for the rest based on matchup … no more JD

I’m tired of seeing 10 guys play just for the sake of inclusion at the expense of cohesion and the inevitable 10-0 run by the other team because you’re at some point going to have 5 bad players on the court at once because you’re promised them minutes

I like the 4 freshman, BUT, there isn't a line up combo over the last three games where the four freshman played together and have outscored the opponents. -2 in 24 minutes with Acuff. -6 with JWill. -4 with Derkack. -2 with Davis. That's a combined -14 in 39 minutes when the four of them are on the court.

The problem is that EO has been so much more solid in a back up role, you don't want to swap him in.

 

[Mholinko]

I like the 4 freshman, BUT, there isn't a line up combo over the last three games where the four freshman played together and have outscored the opponents. -2 in 24 minutes with Acuff. -6 with JWill. -4 with Derkack. -2 with Davis. That's a combined -14 in 39 minutes when the four of them are on the court.

The problem is that EO has been so much more solid in a back up role, you don't want to swap him in.

EO can be a “backup” and still play more than LS

I’ve been banging the drum all year that for as promising as LS is offensively as a freshman…. He is a ZERO on defense and is not a willing passer

I liked him better as a spark off the bench to come in and get his touches when Dylan or ace aren’t in and run the two man game

Maybe it’s more he’s not a capable passer yet as a post player but I feel like the offense freezes when he touches it

Love the kids potential tho

 

[RutgersDom]

Hawk,
let’s just entertain your idea for a minute.
1. At this point in the season, why would Dortch agree to burn it- or get hurt - in what is most definitively a lost season?
2. As you well know I’m down on Pike - but if we buy his argument that Grant wasn’t ready to play until recently, why do you think Dortch is?
3. Why are you clinging to false hope?

I’m not sure why u would say it’s a lost season. If d harp is healthy (flu/ ankle ) we prob go 2-2 vs PSU and our 0-3 Flu run. We’d be 12-7. So if u assume d harp is healthy the rest of the way, there’s no reason we can’t play 66% and go 8-4. We can win or lose every game the rest of the way (like our footballl team this year ) so that puts us at 18 wins and in the picture with 2 guys the committee and TV WANT IN !!!!!

I also don’t see rebounding as our issue the last few weeks.

Hawk, I’m sure if Pike thought Dortch would help this year he’d be playing. He knows this is a year to year thing now with NIL/ Portal…

 

[RutgersDom]

Do we beat Nebraska with Grant playing zero minutes??.....Probably not....or NO

Do we beat UCLA with Grant playing zero minutes??......Maybe, but unlikely to NO

Are we in the game with PSU with 8 minutes left, with Grant playing no minutes.......NO.....someone else has to generate his 7PTS and 3 REBS in 20 minutes. There's no player in the original thread averaging 7PPG in the amount of time and most are averaging 12 to 15 or more minutes per game.

Are most of these B1G games, likely to be within 4 to 6 points, with 5 minutes left in the game?? YES, if the games are likely competitive most nights.

if someone says playing 12 to 15 minutes a game for 12 games is a lost season, why is that true?? There's 180 minutes of playing time that is probably worth 5 to 7PPG in terms of offense OR defense.

If Dortch scores 6PPG and prevents an additional 4PPG, that's probably 5 to 6 additional wins vs losses. Most games are within 5 to 7 points in conferences like the B1G.

The options presented are below for 12 Power 4/5 opponents

JMike 2.5PPG
Martini 2PPG
Ogbole 3.1 PPG

Let's leave Derkack and JWill out of the equations.

If Ace Bailey plays 33 to 35 Minutes a game, there's 5 to 7 minutes there.

If Dylan Harper plays 33 to 34 minutes a game, there's another 6 minutes there.

I am assuming that either Ace or Dylan Harper are on the court. My ideal situation is to add Dortch with either Ace and Dylan on the court OR while BOTH Ace and Dylan are on the court.

This is a 1-7 B1G record in my opinion, without Dylan Grant playing in the last 5 games. I am not going to say that Dylan Harper being sick, didn't impact us vs Wisconsin, Purdue and Indiana, but there are games where Ace or Harper are not going to score 20+ PTS or more

If RU can win 5 more games this year by burning his redshirt, it is 100% worth it. I will repeat, Dylan Grant had NO support or consistent playing time for WEEKS. It is a minor miracle that he's played this well.....BUT the options were JMike, Derkack, Ogbole and Martini.

Why is it impossible to think we can't get more than 3PPG in 15 to 20 minutes, from a 6'9 mobile frosh, who has upside, if I'm getting 8PPG in a short sample size from Dylan Grant??

Agree on Grant coming in cold and playing real well.

Hawk, we can’t win without d harp. We prob go 2-2 in 3 flu games and PSU with a healthy ankle .

I’m OK trying Dortch but I’m not thinking it’s a must either. I’m thinking more minutes for the starters and less for the bench is the better play here.

I think we play 66% the rest of the way (I said it when we weee 8-8 (2-1 so far) and sneak in. Assuming the BIG 2 r healthy the rest of the way.

Would be awesome to get this one on Saturday because it may come down to who we beat in the 10 wins since being 8-8.

I know they aren’t winning as expected but the expectations were way to high for such a young/ new team AND 4 games without a healthy D harp hurt us.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I am looking at wing defense and an occasional rebound and put backs and a couple of players who can drive and score in the paint. If Dortch can't play at this level, someone else next year will outplay him. For now, if it's Martini or bust to get stops and rebounds on defense, then we know how that's going to end.

In fairness to Martini......

He is a threat to make 3s and he is actually not a bad perimeter defender.

I prefer him on the court over Derkack.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I like the 4 freshman, BUT, there isn't a line up combo over the last three games where the four freshman played together and have outscored the opponents. -2 in 24 minutes with Acuff. -6 with JWill. -4 with Derkack. -2 with Davis. That's a combined -14 in 39 minutes when the four of them are on the court.

The problem is that EO has been so much more solid in a back up role, you don't want to swap him in.

I am starting to think EO should be matched and play every minute Ace is not in the game. No Ace and no EO can be brutal inside with no shot blocking. We saw that in the PSU run that could have ended our season.

 

[RutgersChow]

Obviously not a big fan of Pike, but because of the things his team does and does not due on the court. Except for my believing he plays too many guys, who he plays is based on what he sees every day in practice. I assume he is capable of making that decision.

 

[bac2therac]

I remember when J Will was the key to everything last year

Its always the guy on the bench touted as a savior

 

[RUGiddy777]

Wonder if we can get Rettig some time as well.

 

[ancienthooper]

I’m usually aligned with NJH but this one is a head-scratcher that appears to have very little upside.

 

[kt124]

you’re basically shoving players into the portal when you redshirt them in basketball these days