Don't Recruit Top 50 QBs

[Knight Shift]

70% chance of them leaving. Paywall article, but here are highlights.

"Based on these recent classes, if a top-50 QB signee doesn’t start one game in his first two years on campus, there’s an 87 percent chance he’ll end up leaving the program. But among the quarterbacks who did earn a start in their first two years, more than 60 percent still ended up transferring during their careers."

"Among these 126 QBs who did transfer, almost 75 percent ended up at another FBS program, and 42 percent got to stay at the Power 5 level. Only nine of the 126 had to go to a junior college to continue their careers."

"We left the 2021 recruits out of this study because it felt too early to judge them. They’ve only been in college for two years. But 27 of the top 50 have already transferred, including five of the top 10"

You just signed a top-50 QB. The odds he stays have never been lower

To better understand the ROI of QB recruiting, let’s examine four recruiting classes and see how many QBs succeeded where they signed.

theathletic.com

 

[RUScrew85]

70% chance of them leaving. Paywall article, but here are highlights.

"Based on these recent classes, if a top-50 QB signee doesn’t start one game in his first two years on campus, there’s an 87 percent chance he’ll end up leaving the program. But among the quarterbacks who did earn a start in their first two years, more than 60 percent still ended up transferring during their careers."

"Among these 126 QBs who did transfer, almost 75 percent ended up at another FBS program, and 42 percent got to stay at the Power 5 level. Only nine of the 126 had to go to a junior college to continue their careers."

"We left the 2021 recruits out of this study because it felt too early to judge them. They’ve only been in college for two years. But 27 of the top 50 have already transferred, including five of the top 10"

You just signed a top-50 QB. The odds he stays have never been lower

To better understand the ROI of QB recruiting, let’s examine four recruiting classes and see how many QBs succeeded where they signed.

theathletic.com

I'm sure it will get better with NIL money involved.

 

[Knight Shift]

I'm sure it will get better with NIL money involved.

The article is paywalled, but no. The retention rate sucks. Poor return on money. It's a fool's game to invest in a top 50 QB.

 

[rutgersguy1]

QBs move around, that’s the nature of the beast and playing time is big factor.

Recruit a bunch in the portal and the signing class and let the chips fall where they fall.