Espn gives us a 27% chance of beating Nebraska
- Thread starter Westcoast
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Bart has 35%.
Newsflash.....we aren't that good. We are 14-16 and they are 16-15. They had a higher SOS.
Newsflash.....we aren't that good. We are 14-16 and they are 16-15. They had a higher SOS.
There needs to be more to it than JUST advanced metrics, particularly given the way Nebraska closed the year and the additional hits their roster has taken.
OK.
3 of Nebraska's core 4 players will be playing. We are coming off a recent road game where we didn't compete. One of our respected members of the program is just out of jail and could be deported. We have a young team that could be hitting the wall. Our best player is playing on one leg and can't jump.
Ok.
9 of 10 players in our season long rotation are playing. We're coming off a 1 point loss to a team playing like a top-15 team in the country and an admittedly poor showing on the road against a once ranked team that finally got healthy and was playing to save its season. Before that we were playing our best ball of the season. Meanwhile Nebraska has needed maximum effort and a few lucky bounces to pull out 3 wins in its last 12.
It's almost like we can all cherry pick facts to fit our perspective!!!
This...the metrics which these picks and favoritism are going by favor Nebraska. So there is no human element. However anyone paying attention the last few weeks would know otherwise that these two schooks are headed in opposite direction Yes Nebby pulled out a miracle comeback vs a struggling Iowa...they were down 9 with 50 seconds. It doesn't take away that they tanked their season
Theoretically they are 3 wins away from the NCAA tournament. 19-16 losing in the semis could be enough
Right?
I agree. Wrong team is favored. Unless our coaching staff does a horrible job in not getting us prepared and focused to win, we should win by 6-15 points.
You can take BART and shove it's analytics. Only a computer with no human feel for what is going on and which team is better would come up with it's result.
The one wild card is Palmer. He has the talent to take over a game, but most games he just goes through the motions.
I do think that losing tonight would put a big damper on thoughts going into next year, but I don't see us losing.
Against Maryland, that is a different story.
Best of Luck,
Groz
Ok, drama queen.......We match up well with them because they are still undermanned and we play a lot of players which is an advantage. Separate from that, certain teams we just match up well with ie: Nebraska, others not, Maryland.
Didn't compete in the last road game but I saw that coming a mile away as did many others. We also often bounce back from those inexplicable losses with a good game the next time out, particularly against a team we match up well against.
Respected member of the team? To fans it appears yes, to our internal players????? Who knows? If, and this is a big if, he had more of a temper, and didn't treat his girlfriend well that may have been common knowledge amongst his team mates. So, this event to me is being overblown. If it were a 15 pt a game scorer and team captain then yes, the blow would seem much bigger.
Young team hitting a wall.....this is definitely a possibility but tournament time brings out energy in all teams because it's do or die.
And finally, our best player is physically limited but is averaging 21 pts a game his past 2 games and he's been dealing with that same injury even through our hot streak. So moral of the post is it's never as good or bad as it looks. Glad we are playing a slightly undermanned team that we match up well against. Should we win, well Maryland might be a different story. RU 66 Nebraska 61. Go RU!
Nebby was 3-11 in last 14 games
the wins were a fluke miracle comeback at home vs Iowa
a controversial 1 pt win at home vs Minny
and a 9 point home win against everybodys whipping boy Northwestern
they lost to Michigan by 29 and Penn State by 24 in the last 5 games. They did have a 3 pt loss close battle with Purdue at home which probably shot their load
Not nearly the same team away from home, not even close. Have one conference road win at Indiana pretty early in the season when Nebby was thinking NCAA and Indy was beginning to pack it in.
the wins were a fluke miracle comeback at home vs Iowa
a controversial 1 pt win at home vs Minny
and a 9 point home win against everybodys whipping boy Northwestern
they lost to Michigan by 29 and Penn State by 24 in the last 5 games. They did have a 3 pt loss close battle with Purdue at home which probably shot their load
Not nearly the same team away from home, not even close. Have one conference road win at Indiana pretty early in the season when Nebby was thinking NCAA and Indy was beginning to pack it in.
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Seems like a 50/50 game to me. They probably have more experience and the best player. We have more depth but will need to score enough to win.
Rutgers University needs to take the lack of respect and make it a unifying , war chant. It’s been an earned lack of respect to be honest up to this point. But I want to see the entire university from top to bottom adapt a more edgy, Jersey like fight, make us the bad guys. Don’t care what anyone thinks anymore type attitude.
They were 12-4 3-2 and ranked 25th when NU beat them. I don't think they were packing anything in at that time. That game may have started a collapse for them though. JMO
If we want to learn to be successful we can’t say we lost by 1 to a team playing like a top 15 team.
We lost at home to a team below us in the standings. Don’t sugarcoat it.
No one is saying we can’t or won’t win.
We lost at home to a team below us in the standings. Don’t sugarcoat it.
No one is saying we can’t or won’t win.
Don’t minimize the timeline
Friday. Issa news hits
Saturday fly to Indiana
Sunday play game and fly home
Tuesday fly back to Chicago
Friday. Issa news hits
Saturday fly to Indiana
Sunday play game and fly home
Tuesday fly back to Chicago
If you're going to lean on the concept of "team below us in the standings," I have news for you regarding the Nebraska team you think is going to beat us tonight.
The 73% is “advanced metrics”
-1 1/2 is Las Vegas.
I actually see -1 now AND with vig money line is even. Think 53-55% chance Nebby wins
-1 1/2 is Las Vegas.
I actually see -1 now AND with vig money line is even. Think 53-55% chance Nebby wins
Didn't you predict we will get blown out 78-61 in the prediction thread? That looks a whole lot like saying we won't win.
I know they’re coming from different places but the differential is considerable.
I think there is a good chance we don’t play with our normal edge and get blown out.
I also think we can get back to playing Rutgers basketball and win.
2 back to back and travels and Issa situation is my thesis why we lose. I can be totally wrong. It is a prediction.
I also think we can get back to playing Rutgers basketball and win.
2 back to back and travels and Issa situation is my thesis why we lose. I can be totally wrong. It is a prediction.
what schools have blown us out
Maryland beginning of year when we were wet gerber babies
Purdue and Minnesota both on the road when we had no Eugene
Indiana two days after Issa kicked off with Indiana playing like a top 4 school
are those the blowouts?
when was the last time Nebby blew anyone out
Maryland beginning of year when we were wet gerber babies
Purdue and Minnesota both on the road when we had no Eugene
Indiana two days after Issa kicked off with Indiana playing like a top 4 school
are those the blowouts?
when was the last time Nebby blew anyone out
I am a big fan of metrics, however:
- 27% is lower than most other metrics have us
- metrics are generally based on the whole season, and I think most would agree that we have improved throughout while Nebraska has gotten worse.
So probably ESPN < average of metrics predictions < actual RU chance of winning
Would think the Vegas line is about right.
- 27% is lower than most other metrics have us
- metrics are generally based on the whole season, and I think most would agree that we have improved throughout while Nebraska has gotten worse.
So probably ESPN < average of metrics predictions < actual RU chance of winning
Would think the Vegas line is about right.
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