Football Fortune Telling: The ACC in 10 Years

[graystork]

So here's the task. Look at the ACC lineup and predict where its teams will be in 10 years. I'll start:

Big Ten - plucking best football/academic mix
North Carolina
Virginia
Notre Dame
Miami

SEC - taking the best traditional football programs
Clemson
Florida State
Virginia Tech

Big 12 - building an eastern wing for WV/Cincy/UCF and to go 4 time zones with the Big 10
Louisville
Georgia Tech
NC State
Pitt

American - the last refuge of the left behind
Boston College
Syracuse
Duke
Wake Forest

 

[T2Kplus20]

I don't know how it will happen, but the ACC won't exist in 10 years.

 

[robjknight]

And remember there were some on the board that didn't want us to go to the Big 10.

 

[angmo]

What does Miami deliver?

 

[Nycrusupporter]

i think we may be surprised how few teams are added to the BIG and SEC going forward, and it will be driving largely by how much content their media partners want at levels that are accretive to current members. Both the BIG and SEC have lots of content in the Eastern time zone and we don’t know if their media partners want more. ESPN wasn’t ready to pay the SEC more money to go to a 9 game conference schedule. Maybe both leagues only add 2 more teams from the ACC if they become available.

 

[Joey Bags]

There won’t be conferences in 10 years, one super league with everyone else either disbanding or moving to FCS.

 

[Shelby65]

I believe Duke and Wake Forest will find something better and UConn will join them. And I think NC St will join VT in the SEC giving them a NoCarolina School

 

[Arizona Knight]

What does Miami deliver?

Eyeballs and access to Florida.

 

[angmo]

Eyeballs and access to Florida.

Generic answer. Miami offers nothing to the BIG. They'd be the 4th FL pick for the B1G.

 

[Arizona Knight]

Generic answer. Miami offers nothing to the BIG. They'd be the 4th FL pick for the B1G.

You asked what they offer and I answered. The may have seemed generic only because it’s obvious. People watch Miami on TV which would be a positive. They are also located in Miami which allows the B1G to plant a flag in Florida which is talent rich.

You didn’t ask what “pick” they would be.

 

[angmo]

You asked what they offer and I answered. The may have seemed generic only because it’s obvious. People watch Miami on TV which would be a positive. They are also located in Miami which allows the B1G to plant a flag in Florida which is talent rich.

You didn’t ask what “pick” they would be.

Fair enough. I don't think they offer much and most likely would not get a B1G invite. They aren't the Miami of the last century. They're not FL State screaming to get out of the ACC.

 

[Arizona Knight]

Fair enough. I don't think they offer much and most likely would not get a B1G invite. They aren't the Miami of the last century. They're not FL State screaming to get out of the ACC.

Agree on FSU. That should be the priority for sure. That said, I we can’t get FSU I think it makes sense to pivot to Miami. We don’t have Texas. California is now B1G. Need a Florida school IMO. That would give us a presence in 2 of the big 3 states.

 

[rutgersguy1]

i think we may be surprised how few teams are added to the BIG and SEC going forward, and it will be driving largely by how much content their media partners want at levels that are accretive to current members. Both the BIG and SEC have lots of content in the Eastern time zone and we don’t know if their media partners want more. ESPN wasn’t ready to pay the SEC more money to go to a 9 game conference schedule. Maybe both leagues only add 2 more teams from the ACC if they become available.

Agree. I said it in the other thread, people just assume oh this conference has room to 18 or 20 or 24 or whatever so you can just shift this school over.

It's not so simple, some media company has to pay for that and it has to be worth it for them to do so.

Another big thing people forget is the playoffs are expanding and the deal will be coming up for bid in a couple years and the media companies need money for that so they can't be just throwing money around at conferences for schools that don't add enough to the bottom line.

I think FSU/Clemson/UNC probably are worthwhile for a network. UVA, Miami maybe and that's about it for the ACC in terms of decent probability of getting a home in the B10 or SEC IMO. What's left is at least as good as the B12 leftovers after Texas/OU and the PAC leftovers which tried everything to stay together. If they lose more than that, it could be a problem but if not they can be fine.

If the ACC and B12 are on par, don't expect teams from the ACC to leave for that. If anything, I've said there's a decent chance schools like UCF/WVU come back east because of better geographic fit. UConn could be added and maybe Cincy. I won't write the ACC off for dead. There's this notion that the B12 is in some power position because Yormark has done a great job stabilizing the conference. They're in a stable position not a power position. There biggest point of stability was that no one wanted their schools. Guess what, in a scenario where the ACC loses some schools, someone could want their schools (UCF/WVU etc..) and suddenly it may not look as stable as it does now.

 

[RUnTeX]

Miami has upped its academic game overall in recent times to the dismay of some of its fans that the football program has fallen off. Heck, even FSU has elevated its academic profile substantially in the past handful of years. Miami getting AAU this year, along with USF of all places, is mildly interesting. But UF is still the leader of the pack in that state.

That said, academics is not going to be a big consideration in a Florida expansion scenario for the B1G if they go in that direction. But I think maybe UNC and UVA (or VaTech instead?) is where they look to go next, to get to 20.

 

[RU at the shore]

Big Ten - plucking best football/academic mix
North Carolina
Virginia
Notre Dame
Miami

Not sure that I've ever heard those two words in the same paragraph unless I'm missing something.

Really ? Miami’s academic profile is considerably strong. Check AAU , admission rate, rankings

 

[jmc11201]

Really ? Miami’s academic profile is considerably strong. Check AAU , admission rate, rankings

This is true. The school academically is quite different than their reputation on the football field. It is actually a very good school.

 

[vkj91]

Big Ten - plucking best football/academic mix
North Carolina
Virginia
Notre Dame
Miami

Not sure that I've ever heard those two words in the same paragraph unless I'm missing something.

You are. It’s not 1980 anymore. Miami has made huge strides and is a destination school for many NJ top students

 

[vkj91]

If FSU gets out of GOR in the next ten years

B1G
FSU or Miami
UNC
UVA
NC state (I don’t think politicians let them die on the vine)

SEC

Miami or FSU
Clemson
Va Tech
Pitt

Big 12
Makes a push to be Basketball powerhouse
Duke
Cuse
Wake
Lville
UConn

Others go to American

ND stays independent their Olympic sports go to Big 12

 

[mdk01]

Big Ten - plucking best football/academic mix
North Carolina
Virginia
Notre Dame
Miami

Not sure that I've ever heard those two words in the same paragraph unless I'm missing something.

Especially when Ga. Tech was available.

 

[rubigtimenow]

Here’s my stab at it:
Big Ten
North Carolina
Virginia
Notre Dame
FSU

SEC
Clemson
NC State?

Big 12
Pitt
Miami

They still existing ACC
Boston College
Syracuse
Duke
Wake Forest
Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech
Louisville

 

[vkj91]

Especially when Ga. Tech was available.

I don’t think GT has enough sports.

 

[colbert17]

Really ? Miami’s academic profile is considerably strong. Check AAU , admission rate, rankings

I stand corrected.

 

[RW90]

Unless all the potential media content providers transition to the fictitious ESPN Ocho package format, one would think there has to be a point of diminishing returns. I mean, how many games are these providers financially capable of broadcasting in a given day with so many conference games competing in the same timeslots?

Not to mention, once these two or three remaining mega-conferences take shape, the spread in media attention between the bluebloods and the smaller conference teams will be even more pronounced.

 

[krup]

Since ESPN is the one entity that can arrange an ACC school leaving for another conference easily (since they fully control the ACC and SEC), I think people overestimate the B1G chances of getting the ACC schools with the most value, FSU and UNC.

 

[RUref]

So here's the task. Look at the ACC lineup and predict where its teams will be in 10 years. I'll start:

Big Ten - plucking best football/academic mix
North Carolina
Virginia
Notre Dame
Miami

SEC - taking the best traditional football programs
Clemson
Florida State
Virginia Tech

Big 12 - building an eastern wing for WV/Cincy/UCF and to go 4 time zones with the Big 10
Louisville
Georgia Tech
NC State
Pitt

American - the last refuge of the left behind
Boston College
Syracuse
Duke
Wake Forest

I'd sign up for that.

 

[rubigtimenow]

Unless all the potential media content providers transition to the fictitious ESPN Ocho package format, one would think there has to be a point of diminishing returns. I mean, how many games are these providers financially capable of broadcasting in a given day with so many conference games competing in the same timeslots?

Not to mention, once these two or three remaining mega-conferences take shape, the spread in media attention between the bluebloods and the smaller conference teams will be even more pronounced.

Wait until 2024 for the B1G! The media attention on Saturdays and Sundays is going to significantly increased from what it was in 2022.

 

[RW90]

Wait until 2024 for the B1G! The media attention on Saturdays and Sundays is going to significantly increased from what it was in 2022.

Outside LDW, how can NCAAF compete with the NFL for Sundays?

 

[graystork]

Big Ten - plucking best football/academic mix
North Carolina
Virginia
Notre Dame
Miami

Not sure that I've ever heard those two words in the same paragraph unless I'm missing something.

AAU

 

[graystork]

Especially when Ga. Tech was available.

The gap between Miami and Ga Tech football is much greater than the gap between Ga Tech and Miami academics. Agree that Ga. Tech is a definite dark horse candidate for the Big Ten though. Yet another state to introduce Big 10 to.

 

[colbert17]

AAU

As I posted previously, I stand corrected.

 

[graystork]

Eh forget Miami. They can go to the SEC. Big 10 stays at 21 with 3, 7 team divsions
East
Rutgers
Maryland
Penn State
Virginia
North Carolina
Notre Dame
Purdue

Central
Ohio State
MIchigan
Michigan State
Illinois
Northwestern
Indiana
Wisconsin

West
Minnesota
Nebraska
Iowa
USC
UCLA
Washington
Oregon

 

[rubigtimenow]

Outside LDW, how can NCAAF compete with the NFL for Sundays?

Not compete with them. Media advertising and promotion for the B1G during your Sunday football programming.
NBC Saturday night (B1G) and Sunday night (NFL) football, lots of cross promotion going to happen every single week.
CBS now doing a 3:30 B1G game every Saturday. Of course they’ll be promoting it on nfl Sundays.
In 2024 going to be LOTS more advertising of the B1G games to the average football fan.