Gavin Griffiths - Freshman Season Projection

[RutgHoops]

Yup - Hyatt is an entirely different player this season, Simpson is going to shoot it better and has improved a ton, Chol is an entirely different guy, elite shooter and D is much better, Wolf's improvement has been unbelievable, Mag is way ahead of recovery timelines, Oskar has improved enough to be in the rotation this year...

I'm as optimistic as anyone, but what's realistic? 10-20-30% of this stuff comes true?

It's a fair point but players getting better has been a common theme the past 7 years in this program.

Harper 7.8 to 12.1, to 14.9 to 15.8. Cliff 3.8 to 11.9 to 13.2. Eugene 2.4 to 7.9 to 13.8,. Young went from 3.2 to 6.8 (before he got here) and 8.5 to 14.1 at Rutgers. Caleb got better, Geo, Myles, Paul, Mag all got better. On both ends. Guys like Yeboah and Cam pop in to Pike's teams and perform.

I'll take the over (way over in fact) on a 30% hit rate for upside surprises. Replacing Caleb is our biggest challenge imo. And it's a big challenge. He was terrific last year (and his junior year also).

 

[needmorecowbell]

What is being said goes beyond that kind of typical improvement.
BTW - Cliff and Paul were both worse last year offensively than the previous year.

Cliff was not worse offensively. He he averaged more points with a lower FG % because he took more difficult shots. Cliff had a more expanded offensive skill set last year and he was a much bigger part of the offense than the year before.

 

[NickRU714]

Cliff was not worse offensively. He he averaged more points with a lower FG % because he took more difficult shots. Cliff had a more expanded offensive skill set last year and he was a much bigger part of the offense than the year before.

I would say Clif thought he had an expanded offensive skill set - which led to the lower FG%

Don't have the stats but would guess his FG% drop was mostly due to an increase in mid-range shots that didn't work.
Hopefully his offensive skill set contracts this year.

 

[needmorecowbell]

Would you prefer "less valuable"?
Cliff took 95 more shots compared to the previous year and made 18 of them
He was a bigger part of the offense for sure and the offense was worse than the year before

That is less efficient.

 

[Jerseylegends]

I go by the eye test...Gavin Griffiths and Noah Fernandes are better than Spencer and mulcahy.. b1g experience is all that is holding me back from saying they are outright better putting the ball in the floor, getting to the basket..both look like better shooters than mulcahy.... Griffiths is regarded as the best shooter in his class so I'm assuming he can match Spencer's shooting...I've been high on chol since I started looking in to him this summer, he has an NBA body is athletic and will let it fly...I'm worried Abt Simpson being under control and a better shooter but we haven't heard many rave reviews about him, hopefully he's gotten better..Hyatt was never that bad, just missed shots, if he starts making those then boom, you get what we're hearing about him right now...cliff wants to go to the league so I know he's working hard and do you have to question if the reports about mag outworking everyone and going hard in rehab are true? You can usually read through the lines of coach speak. This isn't that, think this is honesty from the staff and observers..

 

[Jerseylegends]

But time will tell...couple more weeks.

 

[Nycrusupporter]

He was both less efficient and less valuable (offensively - he was awesome defensively) or as I said originally, worse than the year before.
His offensive rating was down significantly too 118.3 to 106.8. IOW - he produced fewer points per possession.

He was on the floor more and involved in more possessions - so he scored more points.

His help defense was awesome, his man to man defense was not. He got eaten up by a lot opposing centers in the paint last year.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Would you prefer "less valuable"?
Cliff took 95 more shots compared to the previous year and made 18 of them
He was a bigger part of the offense for sure and the offense was worse than the year before

That was a concern I had going in to last year...what were the incremental numbers going to be with Cliff's expanded role. Never went back and looked, but you just did.

If there was ever a blueprint to improve offense it is to get back those 95 attempts and get a point per shot and improve our offense by 1.5 points per game. It doesn't seem like a lot, but it is.

 

[needmorecowbell]

I go by the eye test...Gavin Griffiths and Noah Fernandes are better than Spencer and mulcahy.. b1g experience is all that is holding me back from saying they are outright better putting the ball in the floor, getting to the basket..both look like better shooters than mulcahy.... Griffiths is regarded as the best shooter in his class so I'm assuming he can match Spencer's shooting...I've been high on chol since I started looking in to him this summer, he has an NBA body is athletic and will let it fly...I'm worried Abt Simpson being under control and a better shooter but we haven't heard many rave reviews about him, hopefully he's gotten better..Hyatt was never that bad, just missed shots, if he starts making those then boom, you get what we're hearing about him right now...cliff wants to go to the league so I know he's working hard and do you have to question if the reports about mag outworking everyone and going hard in rehab are true? You can usually read through the lines of coach speak. This isn't that, think this is honesty from the staff and observers..

Both Cam and Paul were very underrated defenders. Some people complain about their defense because they weren’t quick players but both were very very efficient and effective defenders. When you look at advanced defense metrics, Cam and Paul were right behind McConnell last year and Paul has ranked high on those metrics his whole career. Yet some people think they know better. Gavin and Noah are big question marks on defense for me. They should be fine but not sure they can be as effective as Cam and Paul. Offensively Gavin and Noah should be better, which we all expect. Unfortunately we won’t know what they are capable of until the ball hits the floor in the Big Ten games. That’s when it gets real.

 

[Nycrusupporter]

Both Cam and Paul were very underrated defenders. Some people complain about their defense because they weren’t quick players but both were very very efficient and effective defenders. When you look at advanced defense metrics, Cam and Paul were right behind McConnell last year and Paul has ranked high on those metrics his whole career. Yet some people think they know better. Gavin and Noah are big question marks on defense for me. They should be fine but not sure they can be as effective as Cam and Paul. Offensively Gavin and Noah should be better, which we all expect. Unfortunately we won’t know what they are capable of until the ball hits the floor in the Big Ten games. That’s when it gets real.

This is very true. Danny Hurley has been shocked by how good Spencer is defensively.

 

[cm_13]

Both Cam and Paul were very underrated defenders. Some people complain about their defense because they weren’t quick players but both were very very efficient and effective defenders. When you look at advanced defense metrics, Cam and Paul were right behind McConnell last year and Paul has ranked high on those metrics his whole career. Yet some people think they know better. Gavin and Noah are big question marks on defense for me. They should be fine but not sure they can be as effective as Cam and Paul. Offensively Gavin and Noah should be better, which we all expect. Unfortunately we won’t know what they are capable of until the ball hits the floor in the Big Ten games. That’s when it gets real.

Paul was a good help defender. He would also frequently overhelp and give up open looks on the perimeter as a result.

Definitely a lot of question marks on the defensive end but I trust Pike to find a way to make the pieces work.

 

[needmorecowbell]

He was both less efficient and less valuable (offensively - he was awesome defensively) or as I said originally, worse than the year before.
His offensive rating was down significantly too 118.3 to 106.8. IOW - he produced fewer points per possession.

He was on the floor more and involved in more possessions - so he scored more points.

Agree to disagree.

 

[GRU23]

His help defense was awesome, his man to man defense was not. He got eaten up by a lot opposing centers in the paint last year.

Did he really? He had some bad moments but for the most part he did pretty well against most B1G centers and guarded Edey the best I’ve seen anyone guard him all year. I feel he struggles against centers like Rebracca or Key who are shorter but bigger and skilled, but that doesn’t mean he’s a bad one on one defender.

 

[Nycrusupporter]

Did he really? He had some bad moments but for the most part he did pretty well against most B1G centers and guarded Edey the best I’ve seen anyone guard him all year. I feel he struggles against centers like Rebracca or Key who are shorter but bigger and skilled, but that doesn’t mean he’s a bad one on one defender.

He was also outplayed against Miami and Temple, twice against Trayce Jackson Davis, and he didn’t really put up much resistance against Edey. If you want to know why he is still in college, part of it his offensive shortcomings, but a big part of it is his poor man to man defense in the post, which you have to be able to play in the NBA, particularly at center, because pro teams can’t afford to bring help down low and leave shooters open.

 

[Jerseylegends]

Both Cam and Paul were very underrated defenders. Some people complain about their defense because they weren’t quick players but both were very very efficient and effective defenders. When you look at advanced defense metrics, Cam and Paul were right behind McConnell last year and Paul has ranked high on those metrics his whole career. Yet some people think they know better. Gavin and Noah are big question marks on defense for me. They should be fine but not sure they can be as effective as Cam and Paul. Offensively Gavin and Noah should be better, which we all expect. Unfortunately we won’t know what they are capable of until the ball hits the floor in the Big Ten games. That’s when it gets real.

I do worry about Fernandes as far as his size...but to me the teams defensive identity is based on the culture and attitude. A big part of defense is want to and hustle. Gavin has the athleticism and size to be a good defender. I have faith in the coaches to get him there. It's fun to discuss but we really won't know until the season starts. I'm sure there will be some rough games, especially running and gunning if shots aren't falling. But you hope that's where grit and Jersey tough comes in..

 

[Alonzos001]

My guess , is the will be a little more balanced

Assuming that jerimah is inegibke

I see
Cliff 14.0
Gavin 10.5
Hyatt 10.0
Fernandez 10.0
Simpson 9.0
Mag 8.0
A wiliams 4.0
Wolfolk 3.0
Jmike 2.0
Chol /Palm 2.0

TotAl 74.5

So Gavin 10.5

So 7 total points game for Wolf, JMike, Chol, and Oscar?

I sure hope not. That would be horrible. I see many more total points per game for those 4 (of course dependent on the minutes that they receive)

 

[Alonzos001]

Yup - Hyatt is an entirely different player this season, Simpson is going to shoot it better and has improved a ton, Chol is an entirely different guy, elite shooter and D is much better, Wolf's improvement has been unbelievable, Mag is way ahead of recovery timelines, Oskar has improved enough to be in the rotation this year...

I'm as optimistic as anyone, but what's realistic? 10-20-30% of this stuff comes true?

 

[needmorecowbell]

I do worry about Fernandes as far as his size...but to me the teams defensive identity is based on the culture and attitude. A big part of defense is want to and hustle. Gavin has the athleticism and size to be a good defender. I have faith in the coaches to get him there. It's fun to discuss but we really won't know until the season starts. I'm sure there will be some rough games, especially running and gunning if shots aren't falling. But you hope that's where grit and Jersey tough comes in..

I agree with you for the most part but I’ve heard Geo say this multiple times… Pike and other big ten coaches love to attack freshman. Experience matters.

 

[Nycrusupporter]

I agree with you for the most part but I’ve heard Geo say this multiple times… Pike and other big ten coaches love to attack freshman. Experience matters.

The BIG has not been a magnet for many top 20 recruits, so of course they are attacking them.

 

[Nycrusupporter]

TJD had 13 points the first game, 20 in the second - he averaged 21.8 in Big Ten play last season
Edey had 19 first game and 16 the second game - he averaged 21.9 in Big Ten play

The biggest part of one one-on-one defense for a big is NOT letting your guy catch the ball where he can be most effective with it. Cliff is really good at that. Everyone struggles against guys like TJD, Edey or other bigs with good size, footwork and touch once they catch it in spots they want it.

In each of the games against Indiana and Purdue, Cliff was pretty much dominated, and points were below season averages largely due to the slow pace of play:

Indiana Game 1 - TJD 13pts/10rebs, Cliff 6pts/9reb - In this game TJD attacked Cliff early and got him in foul trouble, Cliff only played 19 minutes. Indiana mysteriously stopped going to TJD when Cliff was out, which allowed Rutgers to come back and win the game. Cliff only shot 1-6.

Indiana Game 2 - TJD 20pts/18rebs/6assists, Cliff 15pts, 4rebs - TJD throughly dominated the game, leading to the win.

Purdue Game 1 - Edey 19pts/11 rebs, Cliff 12pts/8rebs on 4-11 from the field. Edey got into some early foul trouble on some ticky tack fouls in the first half, but when he was on the court he was dominating the game.

Purdue Game 2 - Edey 16pts/11rebs, Cliff 10pts/8rebs on 4-10 from the field. Rutgers strategy in this game was to triple team Edey whenever he touched the ball, which opened things up for the rest of the team. Even so, Edey still throughly outplayed Cliff.

 

[GRU23]

He was also outplayed against Miami and Temple, twice against Trayce Jackson Davis, and he didn’t really put up much resistance against Edey. If you want to know why he is still in college, part of it his offensive shortcomings, but a big part of it is his poor man to man defense in the post, which you have to be able to play in the NBA, particularly at center, because pro teams can’t afford to bring help down low and leave shooters open.

"Not much resistance against Edey" lol ok. Cliff played great defense on him. TJD had one good game and one bad game against Cliff. Cliff isn't in the league because he is a bit smaller of a big with a very limited offensive game and not very switchable. But for college hes a tremendous defender. Just cause all you see is some guy able to hit a post hook on him doesn't mean he is a bad post defender.

 

[Nycrusupporter]

If you were arguing that those two guys are better players than Cliff whose teams base their offense around them, I would have agreed.

If you're saying Cliff is a weak one on one defender by using his D against two of the best players in the country, I think you have to look at what they do against everyone else.

When Cliff gets beat in the post it's a bucket or foul. When Paul or Cam got beat on the perimeter, they got help, that led to defensive rotations and someone other than their man getting a shot. They both got beat - EVERYONE on the team other than Caleb and Mag, got beat more one on one than Cliff did. You just don't see it as much because help D is different on the perimeter and in the post.

I am more than happy to give him a pass on TJD and Edey. But when he lets players like Rebracca, Key, Jamille Reynolds of Temple and Omier from Miami back him down in the post and score over him, it is a problem. He does not hold his position in the post and lets players he should be able to shut down have career games. Great help defender, poor man to man defender.

 

[RutgHoops]

In each of the games against Indiana and Purdue, Cliff was pretty much dominated, and points were below season averages largely due to the slow pace of play:

Indiana Game 1 - TJD 13pts/10rebs, Cliff 6pts/9reb - In this game TJD attacked Cliff early and got him in foul trouble, Cliff only played 19 minutes. Indiana mysteriously stopped going to TJD when Cliff was out, which allowed Rutgers to come back and win the game. Cliff only shot 1-6.

Indiana Game 2 - TJD 20pts/18rebs/6assists, Cliff 15pts, 4rebs - TJD throughly dominated the game, leading to the win.

Purdue Game 1 - Edey 19pts/11 rebs, Cliff 12pts/8rebs on 4-11 from the field. Edey got into some early foul trouble on some ticky tack fouls in the first half, but when he was on the court he was dominating the game.

Purdue Game 2 - Edey 16pts/11rebs, Cliff 10pts/8rebs on 4-10 from the field. Rutgers strategy in this game was to triple team Edey whenever he touched the ball, which opened things up for the rest of the team. Even so, Edey still throughly outplayed Cliff.

Purdue and Indiana went 27-13 (combined) in the B1G and finished first and second in the B1G final standings. Rutgers went 2-2 vs those teams. We beat Purdue in Lafayette in a season where they lost a total of two (2) games at home. One of the reasons we were more successful than most v those two teams is because their two First team All-American big men did not dominate Rutgers the way they did most of the rest of the B1G.

 

[RU-ROCS]

Hyatt needs to do 1 of 2 things to get points and minutes people expect
1. Shoot 40+% from 3 and not turn it over
2. Improve defense

When he stopped making shots he found himself behind Oskar on depth charts. I honestly find it frightening that most people are penciling him for 25+ MPG and 10+ PPG. We have seen 2 years of Hyatt and this will be his 6th season.

I would also add finishing at the rim, which for a good stretch of last season Hyatt struggled with.

 

[Nycrusupporter]

"Not much resistance against Edey" lol ok. Cliff played great defense on him. TJD had one good game and one bad game against Cliff. Cliff isn't in the league because he is a bit smaller of a big with a very limited offensive game and not very switchable. But for college hes a tremendous defender. Just cause all you see is some guy able to hit a post hook on him doesn't mean he is a bad post defender.

Listen, I love that Cliff is at Rutgers and he has made a major contribution while he has been here, but his man to man defense is far where it should be and it is a big reason there has been limited NBA interest in him. Look at the last 3 prominent centers drafted in NY. Jarrett Allen, Nic Claxton, and Mitchell Robinson were all very raw offensively when the got drafted. Allen and Robinson could do little more than dunk the basketball. The reason they all got drafted and played immediately was that they all showed they could play tenacious man to man defense against other centers. The idea that Cliff is being held back because he can’t hit three pointers or needs to show he can bring the court is all a smokescreen. If he was a better defensive player, he would already be in the NBA.

 

[BillyC80]

For Gavin, it may be a question of how many shots he gets, while on the court with Cliff, Hyatt, and Simpson, all prolific shot-takers.

Gavin will exceed my expectations if he goes beyond 10/4/2 in his freshman year.

 

[Usbcbowler]

Agree that the line is set right. 11.5 ppg would be outstanding and basically what I expect. I'm not really buying the Hyatt-hype. How much does I guy improve in year 5, coming off a year (9ppg) that was statistically well above his average (5 ppg)? Coaches say the nicest things about the guys on the bench. I think Hyatt being on par with last year is the best we can hope for. GG will be featured, will have plays run for him, will score in transition. I'm taking the over, 'cause why not be optimistic in October. I'm a little worried about rebounding. I pencil in GG for 3.5 per game. Someone else has to pick up the slack,

Anticipation for Hyatt's numbers is not completely based on improvement but also includes the fact he should see more minutes, which will give him more opportunities. Let's NIT forget who he was playing behind last year

 

[NickRU714]

Anticipation for Hyatt's numbers is not completely based on improvement but also includes the fact he should see more minutes, which will give him more opportunities. Let's NIT forget who he was playing behind last year

Hyatt ended the year playing behind Simpson and Oskar.

After Mag got hurt, Hyatt started.
Then he lost his starting spot the last 3 games of the year to Simpson.

Played 9min (5pts), 6min (0pts) and 17min (5pts) to end the year.
Even Jalen Miller played and scored more against Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament.

 

[Scangg]

Hyatt ended the year playing behind Simpson and Oskar.

After Mag got hurt, Hyatt started.
Then he lost his starting spot the last 3 games of the year to Simpson.

Played 9min (5pts), 6min (0pts) and 17min (5pts) to end the year.
Even Jalen Miller played and scored more against Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament.

That's what makes this off season hype so interesting. He had a huge opportunity to step up when the team needed him most. After Mag went down, he did have a couple good games to be fair. Then it all went downhill. With Hyatt falling behind Oskar to end the season, I thought he was actually a dark horse transfer candidate.

If Hyatt, comes back after that and has a stellar final season it will be an amazing story and you have to credit his determination to work on his game and get his head right. It will also be a credit to Pike for maintaining a good relationship after demoting Hyatt. I think a lot of young men transfer in today's portal trigger happy era if the season ended the way it did for Hyatt

 

[Usbcbowler]

Listen, I love that Cliff is at Rutgers and he has made a major contribution while he has been here, but his man to man defense is far where it should be and it is a big reason there has been limited NBA interest in him. Look at the last 3 prominent centers drafted in NY. Jarrett Allen, Nic Claxton, and Mitchell Robinson were all very raw offensively when the got drafted. Allen and Robinson could do little more than dunk the basketball. The reason they all got drafted and played immediately was that they all showed they could play tenacious man to man defense against other centers. The idea that Cliff is being held back because he can’t hit three pointers or needs to show he can bring the court is all a smokescreen. If he was a better defensive player, he would already be in the NBA.

Here are some arts about Cliff re Defense
1 First team All Big10 Defensive team
2. Averaged 2.1 blocks per game
3. 72 blocks put him 15th in nation n 3rd inBig10
4. Made semi finalist list for Kareem. Abdul- Jabbar Award