Your numbers are so skewed all the time and always to the negative.
The Kenpom crap you always talk about bases things from the year before to start a season and then when a team becomes good, ALL of a sudden they jump up dramatically and it always gets adjusted like Sagarin and the RPI.
Not saying we will beat all of the teams other than Miami and Seton Hall, but the odds are definitely better than 25%(probably more in the 35-40% range).
Stop with all the negativity and enjoy what is going on.
Best of Luck,
Groz