I realize this is a down year in the Big Ten due to graduations , kids leaving school early , coaching turnover last season etc., but am wondering what next season portends? Granted we don't know which kids will leave early this year ( ex. Corey?) and final recruiting classes , grad transfers etc but I'm interested in thoughts on relative strength of the conference and individual schools next year. Which schools look to have most of their starters back , strong in-coming recruiting class , etc
How strong will the Big Ten be next year?
- Thread starter jonS
- Start date
Why do people keep saying this is a down year for the B1G? To support their narrative?
#3 Purdue (with a first place vote)
#5 Michigan State
#17 Ohio State
#24 Michigan
7 maybe 8 teams from the B1G will dance.
Do we need 10 teams from the B1G in the top 25 to not have a down year?
#3 Purdue (with a first place vote)
#5 Michigan State
#17 Ohio State
#24 Michigan
7 maybe 8 teams from the B1G will dance.
Do we need 10 teams from the B1G in the top 25 to not have a down year?
7 to 8 teams are gonna go dancing??? most bracketologists at this point only getting those 4 in. Maybe if Nebraska and Maryland sweep the rest of their seasons we sneak 6 in but I dont know what 8 you expect to dance
Just from a roster standpoint of players that play, Nebraska loses Anton Gill and Evan Taylor. They play the same spot and both have started at different times during the season. Neither one does much other than being role players. Duby Okeke is a graduate transfer that plays occasionally if the other 3 bigger guys are in foul trouble which is quiet often. He has more fouls than minutes and leads the country in moving screens. He is simply an enforcer. Ha.
NU usually has a rash of kids transfer out every year but I don't see that with this group. Maybe one.
Palmer could possibly look to go pro but I don't think he is ready yet. Palmer, Watson, Copeland, and Roby all return which is the big 4 for NU's team.
If they all stay then NU should be top half of the conference next year. IF!!
Probably will be about the same as this year. For whatever reason, the Big Ten is really down in recruiting compared to the other high-majors.
Top 50 prospects committed to B1G schools:
22. Jalen Smith (Maryland)
27. Ayo Dosunmu (Illinois)
38. Aaron Wiggins (Maryland)
48. Daniel Oturu (Minnesota)
50. Joe Wieskamp (Iowa)
There are 10 more in the 51-100 range but the point is the strength of the conference isn't going to be altered significantly by any freshmen, the way the ACC, SEC, and Pac-12 will be. There's an opening here if we have a good offseason of player development.
Top 50 prospects committed to B1G schools:
22. Jalen Smith (Maryland)
27. Ayo Dosunmu (Illinois)
38. Aaron Wiggins (Maryland)
48. Daniel Oturu (Minnesota)
50. Joe Wieskamp (Iowa)
There are 10 more in the 51-100 range but the point is the strength of the conference isn't going to be altered significantly by any freshmen, the way the ACC, SEC, and Pac-12 will be. There's an opening here if we have a good offseason of player development.
I think teams like PSU and Nebraska will take the next step forward next year, as they have talent and almost everyone returning. Maryland also has a lot of talent coming in and should get back the many players injured this year , so they should be much better. That alone will make the team tougher next year, as MSU and Purdue will likely reload.
The Big 10 is extremely strong at the top with 2 national title contenders and two others who are sweet 16 contenders...then a drop off where maybe only 4 teams are even in contention for a bid and maybe only one of them or maybe two tops makes the tourney..or even none of them...then there is a drop off to some mediocrity and then a just flat out bad bottom 4 of Iowa, Ill, RU, Wisky.
Next year expect the middle and bottom to rise somewhat and top to fall..much more competitive league, some of the same teams will stay thought were they are at the top and at the bottom, thats why its going to be quite a tough haul for RU to move up out of the bottom 4
Next year expect the middle and bottom to rise somewhat and top to fall..much more competitive league, some of the same teams will stay thought were they are at the top and at the bottom, thats why its going to be quite a tough haul for RU to move up out of the bottom 4
Michigan has Ignas Brazdeikis coming in. He doesn't quite fit into normal recruiting profile because he's Canadian. Rivals calls him a 5 star, but doesn't give him a numeric rank in the class (because that's what they do for out of country kids, although the lowest 5 star in their top 100 is #28). 247 calls him #40 in his class. ESPN gives him an 88 grade which would put him between #37 and #44 in the class. Despite all 3 services thinking he's essentially top 40 or better in his class, the 247 composite calls him #75 nationally because of how they count the ESPN and Rivals ratings that don't fit him into their top 100 (of US prospects) even though their grade is in the 4-5 star range.
Weird when you try to figure out the math.
does it matter....RU will almost assuredly finish last and our fans will complain why are they picking us last, there is no way we will finish last, etc...wait they said that this year too..
KenPom conference ranking by year..
2018: 5th
2017: 4th
2016: 5th
2015: 4th
2014: 2nd
2013: 1st
2012: 1st
2011: 1st
So yes, by objective measures it's a down year. The top 4 is comparable to most years, but the conference totally craters after that. Here's the ranking of the 5th best team in the conference in KenPom by year (as a highlight for that).
2018: 41
2017: 38
2016: 23
2015: 33
2014: 22
2013: 12
2012: 22
2011: 30
As you can see, a steep drop off after the top 4 this year. Big Ten has had several years in the recent past with way stronger teams than this year. In 2013, the Big Ten had teams ranked #3, 4, 7, 10, 12, 20, and 29.
Very interesting information. What do you suppose are the reason(s) for the decline ?
