Iowa By The Numbers...

[mb5789]

Schedule​

Record: 7-2 (4-2)

9/2: vs Utah State (W) 24-14
9/9: @ Iowa State (W) 20-13
9/16: vs Western Michigan (W) 41-10
9/23: @ Penn State (L) 31-0
9/30: vs Michigan State (W) 26-16
10/7: vs Purdue (W) 20-14
10/14: @ Wisconsin (W) 15-6
10/21: vs Minnesota (L) 12-10
10/28: BYE
11/4: vs Northwestern (W) 10-7

Top Players​

Defense
DT - Logan Lee (#74/899 DI, 77.1 grade) 38 tackles, 2 sacks, 3.5 TFLs, 2 PDs
DT - Aaron Graves (#80/899 DI, 76.8 grade) 28 tackles, 1 sack, 3 TFLs, 1 PD, 1 FF
DT - Yahya Black (#115/899 DI, 75.4 grade) 39 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 TFLs, 2 PDs, 1 FF
LB - Jay Higgins (#33/813 LB, 82.5 grade) 113 tackles, 1 sack, 2.5 TFLs, 3 PDs, 1 FF
LB - Nick Jackson (#108/813 LB, 80.6 grade) 72 tackles, 2 sacks, 5.5 TFLs, 2 PDs, 2 FFs
CB - Sebastian Castro (#3/886 CB, 90.1 grade) 42 tackles, 6 TFLs, 3 INTs, 4 PDs
CB - Cooper DeJean (#211/886 CB, 74.6 grade) 41 tackles, 2 TFLs, 2 INTs, 4 PDs
S - Xavier Nwankpa (#21/872 S, 84.2 grade) 36 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 sack, 1 INT, 2 PDs
S - Quinn Schulte (#162/872 S, 75.2 grade) 50 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 2 PDs

Offense
#1 (Erick All) and #2 TEs both out for season
All 3 WRs who qualified for grades are in the bottom 10th percentile of PFF grades
Leading healthy WR (Diante Vines) has 134 receiving yards on the season
LG Rusty Feth, LT Mason Richman, C Logan Jones, backup LG Beau Stephens all questionable

RB - Leshon Williams (#408/475, 63.7 grade): 551 yards (5.0 ypc), 1TD, 9 catches for 44 yards 1 TD
RB - Kaleb Johnson (59.2 grade): 278 yards (3.8 ypc), 2 TDs, 2 catches for 17 yards
QB - Deacon Hill (#320/321, 37.0 grade): 47/113 (41.6%), 3 TDs/4 INTs, 11 sacks (5 starts)

Team Stats​

Team​

121st in time of possession (27 minutes/game)
4th in penalties per game (3.4/game)
90th in turnover margin (-3 total, -0.3/game)

Offense​

130th in total offense (225.3 yards/game)
128th in passing offense (110.8 yards/game)
109th in rushing offense (114.6 yards/game)
119th in scoring offense (18.4 points/game) only 13.5 ppg vs B1G

7th in red zone offense (21 RZ apps, 10 TDs, 10 FGs 95.2%)
72nd in sacks allowed (2.1 sacks/game)
72nd in TFLs allowed (5.8/game)
78th in turnovers lost (14, 1.6/game)
128th in 3rd down conversion rate (27%)
129th in passing efficiency (91.6)
130th in completion percentage (45.8%)
130th in first downs picked up (110, 12.2 per game)

Defense​

4th in scoring defense (13.7 points/game)
17th in total defense (298.7 yards/game)
13th in passing defense (177.2 yards/game)
31st in rushing defense (121.4 yards/game)

5th in defensive passing efficiency (101.7)
6th in red zone defense (22 RZ apps, 8 TDs and 7 FGs 68.2%)
20th in 3rd down conversion % allowed (31.8%)
28th in fewest first downs allowed (157, 17 of which we due to penalties)
55th in TFLs (5.9/game)
74th in sacks (2.0 per game)
87th in turnovers gained (11, 1.2/game)

Overview​

This is a team that is about as bipolar as you can get. Elite defense and putrid offense. Iowa's offense is worse than their defense is good, if that makes sense. Offense is easily the worst in the P5, might be the worst in the FBS. Defense is up there with the likes of UM, PSU and tOSU for the top defense in the conference. I'd put them in at 4, right behind those 3 and right in front of Rutgers.

Iowa's defensive numbers might be a bit deceiving, as they've face a slate of teams who are almost all (outside of PSU and Utah State) mediocre to bad offenses:


Total Offense Rank
Utah State - 26th (445.4 yards/game)
Iowa State - 101st (337.2 yards/game)
Western Michigan - 62nd (391.6 yards/game)
Penn State - 60th (394 yards/game)
Purdue - 98th (340.3 yards/game)
Wisconsin - 74th (375.6 yards/game) [Iowa played them in their backup QB's first start of the season]
Minnesota - 118th (308.8 yards/game)
Northwestern - 126th (292.1 yards/game) [Iowa faced NW's backup QB]


It won't be easy to score on these guys, but if we do it'll be via the outside rushing game. They have 3 very good interior defenders, possibly the B1G's top LB duo and a very good secondary. I have no doubt our offense can handle their defense. This game will likely come down to who's defense can set their team's offense with the most short fields, and who can get a handful of explosive plays.

The narrative is these teams are similar (great defenses and bad offenses), but Rutgers' offense is significantly better than Iowa's and Iowa's defense is only slightly better than Rutgers. As long as Rutgers doesn't shoot themselves in the foot (ie punting the ball to Cooper DeJean, Gavin Wimsatt throwing another RZ INT, etc) I think Rutgers wins this game. Iowa may be without 4 offensive linemen in this game to go along with all the other issues they've had on offense this year. Rutgers defense needs to force Iowa into 2nd/3rd and long scenarios and get to the QB.

I will be predicting Rutgers to win this week, I'll have my score prediction in the War Room but wanted to drop some of my Iowa notes for you guys here.

 

[RUGuitarMan]

I don’t know how banged up Iowa is, On Tues. Ferentz said the recent bye week helped them get guys healthy. Depends on how many got hurt against NW. Anyway, Iowa has been playing like this forever. They use a power run game and their defense is basic and very tough. They force offenses to be patient and beat themselves. They are very comfortable playing low scoring, very close games. While I think RU has a good chance, I picked them by 2 pts, some seem to think RU can win by a TD or more. I don’t see that happening, although I hope it does.

 

[mb5789]

I don’t know how banged up Iowa is, On Tues. Ferentz said the recent bye week helped them get guys healthy. Depends on how many got hurt against NW. Anyway, Iowa has been playing like this forever. They use a power run game and their defense is basic and very tough. They force offenses to be patient and beat themselves. They are very comfortable playing low scoring, very close games. While I think RU has a good chance, I picked them by 2 pts, some seem to think RU can win by a TD or more. I don’t see that happening, although I hope it does.

What Iowa football coach Kirk Ferentz said ahead of facing Rutgers

Hear from Kirk Ferentz on Cooper DeJean's offensive future, injury updates, controlling things in the Big Ten West and more.

www.hawkcentral.com

from the article...

Kirk Ferentz on Iowa's offensive-line health, which took a severe hit vs. Northwestern​

Four starter-level players left Wrigley Field banged-up. Center Logan Jones was in a walking boot. Left guard Rusty Feth’s arm was in a sling, and he actually played through his issue in the final snaps. That’s because Beau Stephens, who earlier replaced Feth, was taken off the field on a cart with an apparent leg injury (and he's not on this week’s depth chart). And left tackle Mason Richman continues to battle several undisclosed injuries and was pulled after a few series Saturday, with his mobility clearly affected.

"Time will tell," Ferentz said. "We’ll see how the week goes here. It’s November so we’re dealing with a lot of that stuff. We had a lot of it going into the bye, and the bye got a lot of guys cleaned up pretty well. So that helped immensely. We don’t have the luxury of taking a week off now. The guys are working back, and we’ll see who can do what on Saturday. Keep our fingers crossed."

 

[sct1111]

I honestly think with Powell we'd have a better defense. They haven't played anyone really.

 

[eddynyse]

As long as we don't shoot ourselves in the foot, like last year, we have a good chance of winning. Last year we just had to many mistakes with Simon as the QB, a fumble for 6 and 2 interceptions (one for 6). Iowa offense only scored 1 Td and 2 field goals while we scored a TD and a field goal.

I think the key of winning the Iowa game is to AVOID turnover, run the ball with RBs and our QB. Win the time of possession by a good margin. Play solid defense like we have all year long. We do these things and we win.

 

[RUBOB72]

We owe them B1G time since the Janarion Grant debacle. That game was all going to Rutgers if not for the injury and piss poor play calling inside the 5 yard line.

 

[Knight Shift]

We owe them B1G time since the Janarion Grant debacle. That game was all going to Rutgers if not for the injury and piss poor play calling inside the 5 yard line.

• 1st & Goal at IOWA 3​

  (5:53 - 2nd) Tylin Oden run for 1 yd to the Iowa 2

• 2nd & Goal at IOWA 2​

  (5:53 - 2nd) Tylin Oden run for no gain to the Iowa 2

• 3rd & Goal at IOWA 2​

  (5:53 - 2nd) Chris Laviano run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 3
• (2:10 - 2nd) Timeout RUTGERS, clock 02:10

• 4th & Goal at IOWA 3​

  (2:10 - 2nd) Chris Laviano run for 2 yds to the Iowa 1

 

[rutgersdave]

The problem is they are 7th in red zone offense. I don’t think Rutgers is near that efficient.

 

[NickRU714]

The problem is they are 7th in red zone offense. I don’t think Rutgers is near that efficient.

I hate RZ offense numbers.
Getting a FG is different than getting a TD.

RZ TD% would be a better gauge of actual RZ offense proficiency.

Just a guess would assume Iowa gets many FGs.

 

[Knight Shift]

The problem is they are 7th in red zone offense. I don’t think Rutgers is near that efficient.

Good point. Closer look:
Iowa (0.952): has 21 RZ attempts, and came away with 10 TD and 10 FG. That's below 47% on TDs.

Rutgers (0.829) : 35 RZ attempts; 22 TD and 6 FGs. That's 63% on TDs.

Will run this by my household statistician, but I like the odds of Rutgers scoring more, considering we have more attempts and more TDs for those attempts. It shows we are in RZ more than them and score more TDs.

Mashing those stats together, Iowa has 2.3 RZ attempts per game, which lines up to 1 TD.
For Rutgers, 3.88 RZ attempts per game, that figures 2.5 TDs.

Also consider, RU has played the #1, 11, 16, and 35 teams on RZ defense.
Iowa has played #16, #35, #46, 50. I did not look beyond #50.

I think a more meaning stat is RU is #72 on scoring offense and Iowa is #119, and that takes into account Rutgers playing teams with tougher defenses than Iowa has played.

 

[NickRU714]

Good point. Closer look:
Iowa (0.952): has 21 RZ attempts, and came away with 10 TD and 10 FG. That's below 47% on TDs.

Rutgers (0.829) : 35 RZ attempts; 22 TD and 6 FGs. That's 63% on TDs.

Will run this by my household statistician, but I like the odds of Rutgers scoring more, considering we have more attempts and more TDs for those attempts. It shows we are in RZ more than them and score more TDs.

Mashing those stats together, Iowa has 2.3 RZ attempts per game, which lines up to 1 TD.
For Rutgers, 3.88 RZ attempts per game, that figures 2.5 TDs.

Also consider, RU has played the #1, 11, 16, and 35 teams on RZ defense.
Iowa has played #16, #35, #46, 50. I did not look beyond #50.

I think a more meaning stat is RU is #72 on scoring offense and Iowa is #119, and that takes into account Rutgers playing teams with tougher defenses than Iowa has played.

 

[mb5789]

I hate RZ offense numbers.
Getting a FG is different than getting a TD.

RZ TD% would be a better gauge of actual RZ offense proficiency.

Just a guess would assume Iowa gets many FGs.

Good point. Closer look:
Iowa (0.952): has 21 RZ attempts, and came away with 10 TD and 10 FG. That's below 47% on TDs.

Rutgers (0.829) : 35 RZ attempts; 22 TD and 6 FGs. That's 63% on TDs.

Will run this by my household statistician, but I like the odds of Rutgers scoring more, considering we have more attempts and more TDs for those attempts. It shows we are in RZ more than them and score more TDs.

Mashing those stats together, Iowa has 2.3 RZ attempts per game, which lines up to 1 TD.
For Rutgers, 3.88 RZ attempts per game, that figures 2.5 TDs.

Also consider, RU has played the #1, 11, 16, and 35 teams on RZ defense.
Iowa has played #16, #35, #46, 50. I did not look beyond #50.

I think a more meaning stat is RU is #72 on scoring offense and Iowa is #119, and that takes into account Rutgers playing teams with tougher defenses than Iowa has played.

Both fantastic points. I was able to get TD % numbers on RZ trips and Iowa is awful at punching it in in the RZ.

The 7th in RZ scoring is HIGHLY misleading.

Iowa ranks 122nd in the FBS in TD score % in the RZ (47.6%). The only P5 school that is worse is Georgia Tech. Iowa has the HIGHEST RZ FG % in the FBS at 47.6% as well.

cfbstats.com - 2023 National Team Leaders

 

[Knight Shift]

Both fantastic points. I was able to get TD % numbers on RZ trips and Iowa is awful at punching it in in the RZ.

The 7th in RZ scoring is HIGHLY misleading.

Iowa ranks 122nd in the FBS in TD score % in the RZ (47.6%). The only P5 school that is worse is Georgia Tech. Iowa has the HIGHEST RZ FG % in the FBS at 47.6% as well.

cfbstats.com - 2023 National Team Leaders

I spend my life fighting with government employees what data and stats "show." Stats can be twisted to fit a variety of narratives. In football and baseball (and probably basketball and other sports too), one can trot out numbers that look impressive on their face but actually mean nothing when it comes to putting points/runs on the board and winning games. For Iowa, there lackluster offense and paucity of red zone TDs is saved by their awesome defense.

The masochist in me wants to see a single digit score on each side of the board Saturday, but I like our chances better if we get into double digits, particularly 14 and higher.