My Big 10 Power Rankings

[bac2therac]

1. Michigan State
2. Ohio State
3. Purdue
4. Nebraska
5. Michigan
6. Penn State
7. Indiana
8. Maryland
9. Northwestern
10. Wisconsin
11. Iowa
12. Rutgers
13. Minnesota
14. Illinois


Big game for Penn State this week taking on Ohio State...They beat them on the road and now get them at home. A sweep of the Buckeyes would certainly vault them into serious NCAA consideration. No shame for Purdue getting nipped in two close games. Michigan State still seems best equipped when it comes to tourney time. Nebby keeps rolling along and its going to be hard to deny them if they get to 14-4 in league...most avoid slip up at Illinois. Maryland's record is rather poor but this team has played in a lot of close games. A team to watch next year and I think they could be dangerous in the Big 10 tourney..ditto for Indiana...they will be a tourney team next year. Iowa is playing better Minnesota is complete and utter trash right now.

 

[koleszar]

We've had a very difficult schedule in conference this year, top 4 teams twice and only Illinios twice. Plus we got Minny before they fell apart(bad timing). I know it's not the reason we're bad, but a few more games against the lower echelon could have helped a little. The schedule definitely didn't work in our favor this year.

 

[knights1212]

I hope we can defeat Illinois on Senior Day and that we can play Minnesota in the 12 vs 13 game at MSG. Minnesota beat us pretty good in our very first BIG game on Dec 3 in Minneapolis. THey were #11 in the country at the time but they have fallen way off that once they lost Murphy. I would like to get them back for that loss at MSG in the BIG 10 Tournament.

 

[koleszar]

I hope we can defeat Illinois on Senior Day and that we can play Minnesota in the 12 vs 13 game at MSG. Minnesota beat us pretty good in our very first BIG game on Dec 3 in Minneapolis. THey were #11 in the country at the time but they have fallen way off that once they lost Murphy. I would like to get them back for that loss at MSG in the BIG 10 Tournament.

If we win that Illinois game I will be happy and so pissed at the same time. That StonyHartford debacle will rear it's ugly head again. RU could have gotten that 1st monkey off their back with our 1st winning regular season in 12 years. That's all I was looking for this season. It would have been talked about in all the papers and continued the positive perception.

 

[bac2therac]

Minnesota has Iowa and Wisconsin left..so winnable games for them but I think they lose both. I think there is a decent chance of actually finishing 11 if we beat Illinois..which would possibly set up another meeting with Illinois in the Big 10 tourney. Looking further ahead possibly RU opponents in the 2nd round are Michigan and Penn State...not good matchups IMO

 

[bac2therac]

We've had a very difficult schedule in conference this year, top 4 teams twice and only Illinios twice. Plus we got Minny before they fell apart(bad timing). I know it's not the reason we're bad, but a few more games against the lower echelon could have helped a little. The schedule definitely didn't work in our favor this year.

no one knew that OSU was going to be this good, they were expected to be a bottom 6 school...ditto for Nebraska, thats just how it worked out.

 

[huskersalways]

Just my $.02 stab at it.
1. MSU
2. OSU
3.Purdue
4.Nebraska
5.PSU
6.Michigan
7.Indiana
8.Maryland
9. Wisconsin
10.Northwestern
11.Illinois
12.Rutgers
13.Iowa
14.Minnesota

 

[shields]

Not impressed with Wisconsin, swept Illinois for two of their wins.

 

[dconifer]

We've had a very difficult schedule in conference this year, top 4 teams twice and only Illinios twice. Plus we got Minny before they fell apart(bad timing). I know it's not the reason we're bad, but a few more games against the lower echelon could have helped a little. The schedule definitely didn't work in our favor this year.

Playing pre-suspension Minnesota in the first week of December was a really bad break for you guys.

1. MSU
2. OSU
3.Purdue
4.Nebraska
5.Michigan/ Indiana/Maryland
8. Penn state
9. Northwestern
10. Wisconsin
11.Illinois
12.Rutgers
13. Minnesota
14.Iowa

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Long way to go....the Stony and Hartford games are not relevant to the strength of the program as far as winning record or not, you cannot fool savvy fans....Wisconsin, Iowa and Northwestern were much more important as were performances against Michigan State 2X, Florida State and Seton Hall.......we should not have scheduled as weakly as it appears we did, but in the larger picture, it allowed for the Baker and Doucoure tandem to settle in early.

As far as whether it's 11th through 14th isn't as critical as can RU perform in back to back games at MSG if they win their first game. I know there were a few fans that didn't quite understand how the NW game happened in the finale last year , but RU was out of gas and on fumes...

I am really interested in Saturdays game at Maryland....Bruno Fernando is a freshman monster PF/C for the Terps and will create havoc for RU, but can MD show enough moxie after another hard fought game. There could be a let down Saturday night for both teams OR MD might be motivated to erase things.....if they get off to a fast start, RU could have a difficult night....if MD comes in flat and RU can get off to a decent scoring and defensive start, it could get interesting because some fans are up in arms regarding Mark Turgeon..... A massive road upset by RU could change the thought process and narrative for the rest of the season and spring/summer recruiting.

 

[dconifer]

Not impressed with Wisconsin, swept Illinois for two of their wins.

I tried to put them lower, but we (Terrapins) barely beat them. They really are terrible. So are we, I guess..

 

[koleszar]

Long way to go....the Stony and Hartford games are not relevant to the strength of the program as far as winning record or not, you cannot fool savvy fans...

I completely disagree. For a moribund program perception matters. You get people outside of Rutgers talking about Rutgers and that creates buzz around the program. Which permeates through the tri-state area and into high school gyms. Achieving a winning record for the 1st time in 12 yrs. will be talked about as another positive step.

Only true die-hards remember who you beat at the end of the year. The rest will just read the papers see the record and say look Rutgers might finally be getting it together. College sports is a popularity contest, be the coolest, look the prettiest and recruits follow. In a popularity contest perception matters.

 

[bac2therac]

Playing pre-suspension Minnesota in the first week of December was a really bad break for you guys.

1. MSU
2. OSU
3.Purdue
4.Nebraska
5.Michigan/ Indiana/Maryland
8. Penn state
9. Northwestern
10. Wisconsin
11.Illinois
12.Rutgers
13. Minnesota
14.Iowa

I think Michigan has clearly distinguished themselves from Indiana and Maryland...and how could you rate either of those two ahead of PSU?

 

[bac2therac]

Long way to go....the Stony and Hartford games are not relevant to the strength of the program as far as winning record or not, you cannot fool savvy fans....Wisconsin, Iowa and Northwestern were much more important as were performances against Michigan State 2X, Florida State and Seton Hall.......we should not have scheduled as weakly as it appears we did, but in the larger picture, it allowed for the Baker and Doucoure tandem to settle in early.

As far as whether it's 11th through 14th isn't as critical as can RU perform in back to back games at MSG if they win their first game. I know there were a few fans that didn't quite understand how the NW game happened in the finale last year , but RU was out of gas and on fumes...

I am really interested in Saturdays game at Maryland....Bruno Fernando is a freshman monster PF/C for the Terps and will create havoc for RU, but can MD show enough moxie after another hard fought game. There could be a let down Saturday night for both teams OR MD might be motivated to erase things.....if they get off to a fast start, RU could have a difficult night....if MD comes in flat and RU can get off to a decent scoring and defensive start, it could get interesting because some fans are up in arms regarding Mark Turgeon..... A massive road upset by RU could change the thought process and narrative for the rest of the season and spring/summer recruiting.

a 500 season matters when its been 12 years so I would say those two losses were extremely costly considering the team could still finish as low as 13-19

 

[shields]

Penn State is better than Maryland for sure.

 

[PiscatawayMike]

I completely disagree. For a moribund program perception matters. You get people outside of Rutgers talking about Rutgers and that creates buzz around the program. Which permeates through the tri-state area and into high school gyms. Achieving a winning record for the 1st time in 12 yrs. will be talked about as another positive step.

Only true die-hards remember who you beat at the end of the year. The rest will just read the papers see the record and say look Rutgers might finally be getting it together. College sports is a popularity contest, be the coolest, look the prettiest and recruits follow. In a popularity contest perception matters.

Agree. Perception is reality. A winning record this season would have dramatically helped the perception of the program. Anyone who can't see that, well, I don't know what to tell you. Pikiell definitely knows it. That's why we played a horrible OOC schedule and had a ridiculous amount of home games.

 

[knights1212]

I said it at the time as well as a couple other times. There is no way we should have lost to Stony Brook or Hartford. Stony Brook is like 9-14 now. We probably thought we only had to show up and we are a team that can never do that. On top of that Stony Brook had extra incentive playing against their former coach and the game was just before the holiday break. Hartford was on Dec 28 just after the kids returned from their break. Neither of these should be excuses. The bottom line is our guys did not play with the intensity they needed and it most likely cost us our first winning season in 12 years. That was important to me and many others and it still bothers me that our guys played poorly.

 

[PiscatawayMike]

I hope we can defeat Illinois on Senior Day and that we can play Minnesota in the 12 vs 13 game at MSG. Minnesota beat us pretty good in our very first BIG game on Dec 3 in Minneapolis. THey were #11 in the country at the time but they have fallen way off that once they lost Murphy. I would like to get them back for that loss at MSG in the BIG 10 Tournament.

Art, they lost Lynch, who dropped his appeal today, not Murphy,

http://btn.com/2018/02/15/minnesota-gophers-center-reggie-lynch-drops-appeal-accepts-expulsion/

 

[RUJMM78]

Agree. Perception is reality. A winning record this season would have dramatically helped the perception of the program. Anyone who can't see that, well, I don't know what to tell you. Pikiell definitely knows it. That's why we played a horrible OOC schedule and had a ridiculous amount of home games.

Spot on response.Its mind boggling that any fan doesn't understand that ending a negative stat like consecutive losing seasons impacts recruiting,season ticket sales ,donor support and the reaction of players on the team.

 

[blockm2]

Computer rankings (KenPom/Torvik/Sagarin)

Purdue - 4/3/3
MSU - 6/6/4

OSU - 11/8/16

Mich - 25/19/18

PSU - 38/29/43
Mary - 39/38/32

Neb - 52/51/59

Ind - 73/69/61
NW - 81/74/63

and the rest...

Wis - 94/88/73
Iowa - 98/93/83
Minn - 104/103/79
Illinois - 114/98/93
Rut - 140/122/122


MSU and Purdue clearly at the top, but OSU with the inside track to the #1 seed in the tourney. Nebraska 4th best in the standings but not even close to computers.

 

[bac2therac]

OSU not getting a one seed with 2 losses to PSU. MSU will have the best shot at the 1

 

[bac2therac]

Computer rankings (KenPom/Torvik/Sagarin)

Purdue - 4/3/3
MSU - 6/6/4

OSU - 11/8/16

Mich - 25/19/18

PSU - 38/29/43
Mary - 39/38/32

Neb - 52/51/59

Ind - 73/69/61
NW - 81/74/63

and the rest...

Wis - 94/88/73
Iowa - 98/93/83
Minn - 104/103/79
Illinois - 114/98/93
Rut - 140/122/122


MSU and Purdue clearly at the top, but OSU with the inside track to the #1 seed in the tourney. Nebraska 4th best in the standings but not even close to computers.

not sure why you are using these 3 rankings but not including rpi....while this is the first year the NCAA committee will consider other ranking systems on a schools profile, the rpi, rpi sos and quadrant records are still the most relied on

 

[huskersalways]

The way they are playing I think I would move PSU to 4th now. Thought about doing it when I put my list together.

 

[blockm2]

not sure why you are using these 3 rankings but not including rpi....while this is the first year the NCAA committee will consider other ranking systems on a schools profile, the rpi, rpi sos and quadrant records are still the most relied on

While RPI is still something very relevant to the NCAA committee, it has no real basis in reality and is a horrible judge of how good teams are. I was only using those 3 since they correlate quite well with the Vegas point spread in their predictions which is pretty good evidence of the strength of their rankings.

For example, Rhode Island is currently #6 in the RPI, but that's just stupid. Nobody thinks they are the 6th best team in the country. They just have a nice record because they've played bad opponents. They are winless against KenPom top 50 competition and only have 4 wins vs KenPom top 120.

 

[kcg88]

OSU not getting a one seed with 2 losses to PSU. MSU will have the best shot at the 1

I think he was talking about the 1 seed in the B1G tournament as both OSU and MSU are 13-2 but OSU has the H2H win.

 

[knights1212]

Piscataway Mike, Thank you for the correction. I don't know why I said Murphy. I knew they lost Lynch. They still have Murphy, Mason, McBrayer, Washington etc.

 

[bac2therac]

While RPI is still something very relevant to the NCAA committee, it has no real basis in reality and is a horrible judge of how good teams are. I was only using those 3 since they correlate quite well with the Vegas point spread in their predictions which is pretty good evidence of the strength of their rankings.

For example, Rhode Island is currently #6 in the RPI, but that's just stupid. Nobody thinks they are the 6th best team in the country. They just have a nice record because they've played bad opponents. They are winless against KenPom top 50 competition and only have 4 wins vs KenPom top 120.

I agree generally but URI scheduled strong....a overall sos of 52 but their non conference sos is 3.....Dont go by Ken Pom top 50 records..its specifically about quadrants which aid playing games on the road....URI is 1-3 vs quadrant 1 but 5-0 vs quadrant 2..those are great numbers. Sure they realistically cannot be more than a 4 or 5 seed.

 

[bac2therac]

Piscataway Mike, Thank you for the correction. I don't know why I said Murphy. I knew they lost Lynch. They still have Murphy, Mason, McBrayer, Washington etc.

I think one of those players missed several games with an injury

 

[blockm2]

I agree generally but URI scheduled strong....a overall sos of 52 but their non conference sos is 3.....Dont go by Ken Pom top 50 records..its specifically about quadrants which aid playing games on the road....URI is 1-3 vs quadrant 1 but 5-0 vs quadrant 2..those are great numbers. Sure they realistically cannot be more than a 4 or 5 seed.

the quadrants are determined by opponent RPI. Which is kinda the point. RPI sucks. Therefore determining opponent strength by using their RPI is fundmentally flawed.

I used KenPom to determine opponent strength because it is a better measure. That's what we want. No point in using a worse measure.

Rhode Island best road win is vs #131 VCU so it isn't like they are piling up good wins away from home either.

I understand WHY Rhode Island rates highly by RPI and why their W/L in various quadrants is what it is, but that doesn't mean it is useful information or very good for describing how good they are. They are #30 in KenPom which is far more relevant for determining who they would be likely to beat on a neutral court.

 

[bac2therac]

Ken Pom will be used as consideration this year but its clear that the quadrants will be relied heavily on since that was the no change to reward road games, so using Ken Pom numbers dont mean all that much for NCAA selection purposes. URI has very good wins over SHU and Providence...playing and losing at Nevada and Alabama were big helps to their numbers..also Virginia neutral site and that SHU win counts as road/neutr

 

[G- RUnit]

So Rhode's best win like Rutgers is SHU. So much better than PSU or Nebraska. SMH

 

[blockm2]

Ken Pom will be used as consideration this year but its clear that the quadrants will be relied heavily on since that was the no change to reward road games, so using Ken Pom numbers dont mean all that much for NCAA selection purposes. URI has very good wins over SHU and Providence...playing and losing at Nevada and Alabama were big helps to their numbers..also Virginia neutral site and that SHU win counts as road/neutr

I guess what I'm saying is I like the concept of the quadrants, recognizing it's tougher to win on the road than at home. But what's dumb is using the RPI to form that basis.

Beating Providence at home not a "very good win". Providence lost to UMass this year. They are #67 in KenPom, even after their upset win over Nova. Beating them is similar to beating Indiana. I mean it's nice to win, but not something you put on your resume for the NCAA tourney.

A better way to do the quadrants is to use opponent KenPom ranks as the determinant for how good the opponent is instead of RPI.

RPI is both mathematically and to the "eye test" a terrible measure of opponent quality. I understand how it gets used by the selection committee and what their team sheets look like, but that doesn't mean we have to pretend it has any meaningful value.

 

[bac2therac]

I guess what I'm saying is I like the concept of the quadrants, recognizing it's tougher to win on the road than at home. But what's dumb is using the RPI to form that basis.

Beating Providence at home not a "very good win". Providence lost to UMass this year. They are #67 in KenPom, even after their upset win over Nova. Beating them is similar to beating Indiana. I mean it's nice to win, but not something you put on your resume for the NCAA tourney.

A better way to do the quadrants is to use opponent KenPom ranks as the determinant for how good the opponent is instead of RPI.

RPI is both mathematically and to the "eye test" a terrible measure of opponent quality. I understand how it gets used by the selection committee and what their team sheets look like, but that doesn't mean we have to pretend it has any meaningful value.

Providence is a NCAA team right now...so yes it is a great win for a high midmajor from the A10 like URI is....

 

[blockm2]

Providence is a NCAA team right now...so yes it is a great win for a high midmajor from the A10 like URI is....

You can call Providence whatever you want, but they'd be an underdog to 60+ teams on a neutral court right now. That's not what I'd call a great win. But I guess Minnesota, UMass, and DePaul all racked up great wins against them.

But if you like the RPI....

 

[bac2therac]

they are a NCAA team, that is what you call a quality win