Hard to believe but we're roughly 25% of the way through the season. I can't always type out game thoughts like bac2therac and some others, but I wanted to collect my thoughts so far in one place.
Geo Baker
Grade: B+
He's being put in a tough position as the primary ballhandler and scorer on offense as a sophomore, and what's more it's not even his natural role. I expect Baker to really excel next year as a secondary ballhandler, and this experience will benefit him. His three-point shooting has been fantastic, and he's shown some ability to get to the rim. It's the stuff in between and the decision-making that knocks his grade down from an A. Not unexpectedly, he's still getting a feel for how to truly run an offense, especially against the better teams on our schedule. Sometimes he hands the ball off and checks out for an offensive series, and sometimes he forces a bad shot early in the shot clock. These are issues that can be smoothed out. Gets a B+ instead of an A- because he's yet to play a great game against a top-tier opponent, in my eyes.
Eugene Omoruyi
Grade: B+
Obviously the addition of a three-point shot is the story here. It was a big surprise and is huge for his game as it changes the way teams need to defend him. Although: he started 6 for 7 and is just 4 for 16 since. His rebounding numbers have predictably gone up with Freeman's departure and his two-point shooting has remained steady. Two things keeping him from an A: While he's elite at drawing charges, I think he may be relying too much on that as a defender. He was decent at generating blocks and steals a season ago but has hardly done it at all this year. Offensively, the ball gets stuck in his hands too often. After 13 assists and 12 turnovers in the first four games, he's assisted just 4 times and turned it over 15 in the last four. Obviously the step up in competition accounts for some of that... He's not going to be Ethan Happ passing out of the lane, but it's reasonable to want him to do a better job of dishing to teammates.
Shaq Doorson
Grade: B
If I was grading relative to my pre-season expectations, this would be an A++. He's clearly more mobile than he's ever been and done an excellent job of finishing at the rim, which seems like it'd be easy for a 7-footer but hasn't always been. You'd like to see him get some more touches inside. In poker they say if you're never caught bluffing, that means you aren't bluffing enough. Same for shooting: If you're not missing any shots, that means you're not attempting enough of them. He knows his own limitations and I'm not saying he needs to step out and start taking jumpers, but he's shown enough feel inside that more sets should be drawn up to get him the ball. Ward and Happ are very good so them having big games isn't surprising and isn't damning of Shaq's defense, but the B1G is full of quality big guys.
Peter Kiss
Grade: B
I was a little bit skeptical of how his shooting would transfer since he was inefficient at Quinnipiac, but so far so good. Even if he settles in as a 35% three-point shooter, it's something we've missed. While Baker and Omoruyi struggled a bit in the two B1G games, I thought Kiss was fantastic and that matches his reputation as a big-game guy. He brings energy and his defense has already seen big improvement from the first couple of games this year. He's going to be streaky -- he shot just 5-25 in a three-game stretch against SJU, EMU, and BU -- so we'll have to live with that. I'd like to see the defense continue to improve and for him to use his energy to help us break out of scoring droughts, not just to put exclamation points on big runs.
Shaq Carter
Grade: B-
I mean, this is kind of a mystery grade. He played 14 minutes of mostly garbage time, and then suddenly has 18 great minutes against Wisconsin. So I kind of split the difference here. Like Doorson, he knows his own game well and has shown a pretty good feel for the basket when he's close by. He played some good defense and also some bad, which isn't really surprising for a JUCO guy thrown directly into a B1G game. We're talking about a one-game sample so not many conclusions to draw. We'll see how many minutes he gets going forward.
Ron Harper Jr.
Grade: C+
Harper would get an A from me if only he could make shots. 3-22 from three and 3-9 from the line isn't going to cut it. He won the MidKnight Madness 3-point contest so I think it'll come around, but there have been some BAD misses. Other than that, I love his game. He always seems to be in the right place and he's made 17-25 from inside the arc. Like most freshman there are strides to be taken defensively but I'd like to see him get 16-18 minutes a night, because he impacts the game in a positive way when he's on the floor and I think the shots will start to drop.
Issa Thiam
Grade: C+
Essentially the opposite of Harper: Thiam hits three-pointers and plays good defense but otherwise he's invisible. 3-and-D is valuable but he needs to actually be attempting the threes for the formula to work. He's seemingly good for one great drive to the basket a game but never any more, and that's the same complaint I had last season. Part of the issue is that we don't have a natural distributor, but Thiam needs to be more assertive. Not that I'm saying anything that hasn't been said over and over again on this board.
Myles Johnson
Grade: C-
Not entirely sure what to make of Johnson. He looked really solid early on but his minutes have dwindled and his play has fallen off. Shades of Mamadou Doucoure from last season, who looked good in the non-conference and against Minnesota but turned into a nonfactor. Hopefully Johnson can avoid that fate, but the numbers are striking: Doorson is 16-17 and Carter is 7-10, while Johnson is just 9-22 from the floor and I don't recall seeing him take any jumpers so we're talking about shots near the rim that need to be hit at a higher rate. He's been alright defensively and on the glass, but nothing too special. I like his potential but I wouldn't be surprised to see Carter as the first big man off the bench for a while.
Caleb McConnell
Grade: D+
Another sort of mystery grade. He was a very nice surprise these last two games but there's also a reason Pikiell played Geo for 39 minutes against Miami. The shooting is rough (3-14 overall) but he's shown some ability to drive, can competently dribble, and isn't a zero defensively, which marks an upgrade over last year's backup PG situation.
Montez Mathis
Grade: D
There are some things Mathis does well: He can be a complete pest defensively, and he attacks the rim and draws fouls. Those are both important things that can be built on. However, he's been a total liability offensively. This isn't impugning his future potential or writing him off, it's just an evaluation of his play so far. 8-31 on two-pointers is brutal, and 3-14 from three isn't much better. He needs to improve at finishing at the rim and he needs to see when it's not there and back it out rather than force it up.
Mamdou Doucoure
Grade: D-
To whatever extent I expected a sophomore leap, it hasn't happened. How he went from 13 and 9 against Reggie Lynch, Jordan Murphy, and Minnesota early in last year's schedule to what he is now might forever be a mystery. He grabbed 6 boards in 10 minutes against EMU, a glimmer of hope, but has just 2 in 9 minutes since. His only made field goal was an ugly banked-in jumper against Fairleigh Dickinson. I have nothing else to say here.
Overall Grade: B
Why is this grade a B when so many players graded out lower? Simple: The coaching staff does a good job and this team plays hard. They're more as a team than the sum of the individual parts.
Outlook
I'm optimistic looking forward. One of my talking points this off-season was that the new guys couldn't possibly shoot threes worse than the 21% that Sanders, Williams, and Freeman produced. Well, through eight games Harper, Mathis, and McConnell are shooting 16%. Oops. I do think that will pick up, even if it's just to 25%. And the addition of Kiss and Omoruyi's newfound longball have offset that. Turnovers are up, which was easy to predict. The foul shooting is going to improve a little bit, but opponents are also going to shoot better than the 53.1% they've shot so far, so there's no hidden regression to be had at the stripe.
Will we finish higher than 14th? I still don't know. There's no doubt that we're a better team than last year but the Big Ten is also much improved. I'd like to say yes but the shooting overall has fallen short of my expectations and has especially been a letdown after the first two games. This is really going to be the key. The four freshman need to start putting the ball through the hoop while continuing to develop the rest of their games. The non-Harper freshman are shooting 31.7% on two pointers and the non-Johnson (he's 0-0) freshman are shooting 15.9% on three pointers. Even accounting for the fact that they're freshmen in their first eight games, those are bad numbers.
On the flip side, Baker, Omoruyi, Kiss, and Doorson have played really well. There are quibbles to be had but they're all positive contributors. The coaches do a good job, the team seems to have chemistry, and they play hard.
Right now I see one projection system (Torvik) has us going 15-15 (7-13). KenPom has us going 13-17 (5-15). I think splitting the difference at 14-16 (6-14) is the baseline for a good/successful season. Worse than that and I'll be disappointed. Better than that and I'll be very happy.
Geo Baker
Grade: B+
He's being put in a tough position as the primary ballhandler and scorer on offense as a sophomore, and what's more it's not even his natural role. I expect Baker to really excel next year as a secondary ballhandler, and this experience will benefit him. His three-point shooting has been fantastic, and he's shown some ability to get to the rim. It's the stuff in between and the decision-making that knocks his grade down from an A. Not unexpectedly, he's still getting a feel for how to truly run an offense, especially against the better teams on our schedule. Sometimes he hands the ball off and checks out for an offensive series, and sometimes he forces a bad shot early in the shot clock. These are issues that can be smoothed out. Gets a B+ instead of an A- because he's yet to play a great game against a top-tier opponent, in my eyes.
Eugene Omoruyi
Grade: B+
Obviously the addition of a three-point shot is the story here. It was a big surprise and is huge for his game as it changes the way teams need to defend him. Although: he started 6 for 7 and is just 4 for 16 since. His rebounding numbers have predictably gone up with Freeman's departure and his two-point shooting has remained steady. Two things keeping him from an A: While he's elite at drawing charges, I think he may be relying too much on that as a defender. He was decent at generating blocks and steals a season ago but has hardly done it at all this year. Offensively, the ball gets stuck in his hands too often. After 13 assists and 12 turnovers in the first four games, he's assisted just 4 times and turned it over 15 in the last four. Obviously the step up in competition accounts for some of that... He's not going to be Ethan Happ passing out of the lane, but it's reasonable to want him to do a better job of dishing to teammates.
Shaq Doorson
Grade: B
If I was grading relative to my pre-season expectations, this would be an A++. He's clearly more mobile than he's ever been and done an excellent job of finishing at the rim, which seems like it'd be easy for a 7-footer but hasn't always been. You'd like to see him get some more touches inside. In poker they say if you're never caught bluffing, that means you aren't bluffing enough. Same for shooting: If you're not missing any shots, that means you're not attempting enough of them. He knows his own limitations and I'm not saying he needs to step out and start taking jumpers, but he's shown enough feel inside that more sets should be drawn up to get him the ball. Ward and Happ are very good so them having big games isn't surprising and isn't damning of Shaq's defense, but the B1G is full of quality big guys.
Peter Kiss
Grade: B
I was a little bit skeptical of how his shooting would transfer since he was inefficient at Quinnipiac, but so far so good. Even if he settles in as a 35% three-point shooter, it's something we've missed. While Baker and Omoruyi struggled a bit in the two B1G games, I thought Kiss was fantastic and that matches his reputation as a big-game guy. He brings energy and his defense has already seen big improvement from the first couple of games this year. He's going to be streaky -- he shot just 5-25 in a three-game stretch against SJU, EMU, and BU -- so we'll have to live with that. I'd like to see the defense continue to improve and for him to use his energy to help us break out of scoring droughts, not just to put exclamation points on big runs.
Shaq Carter
Grade: B-
I mean, this is kind of a mystery grade. He played 14 minutes of mostly garbage time, and then suddenly has 18 great minutes against Wisconsin. So I kind of split the difference here. Like Doorson, he knows his own game well and has shown a pretty good feel for the basket when he's close by. He played some good defense and also some bad, which isn't really surprising for a JUCO guy thrown directly into a B1G game. We're talking about a one-game sample so not many conclusions to draw. We'll see how many minutes he gets going forward.
Ron Harper Jr.
Grade: C+
Harper would get an A from me if only he could make shots. 3-22 from three and 3-9 from the line isn't going to cut it. He won the MidKnight Madness 3-point contest so I think it'll come around, but there have been some BAD misses. Other than that, I love his game. He always seems to be in the right place and he's made 17-25 from inside the arc. Like most freshman there are strides to be taken defensively but I'd like to see him get 16-18 minutes a night, because he impacts the game in a positive way when he's on the floor and I think the shots will start to drop.
Issa Thiam
Grade: C+
Essentially the opposite of Harper: Thiam hits three-pointers and plays good defense but otherwise he's invisible. 3-and-D is valuable but he needs to actually be attempting the threes for the formula to work. He's seemingly good for one great drive to the basket a game but never any more, and that's the same complaint I had last season. Part of the issue is that we don't have a natural distributor, but Thiam needs to be more assertive. Not that I'm saying anything that hasn't been said over and over again on this board.
Myles Johnson
Grade: C-
Not entirely sure what to make of Johnson. He looked really solid early on but his minutes have dwindled and his play has fallen off. Shades of Mamadou Doucoure from last season, who looked good in the non-conference and against Minnesota but turned into a nonfactor. Hopefully Johnson can avoid that fate, but the numbers are striking: Doorson is 16-17 and Carter is 7-10, while Johnson is just 9-22 from the floor and I don't recall seeing him take any jumpers so we're talking about shots near the rim that need to be hit at a higher rate. He's been alright defensively and on the glass, but nothing too special. I like his potential but I wouldn't be surprised to see Carter as the first big man off the bench for a while.
Caleb McConnell
Grade: D+
Another sort of mystery grade. He was a very nice surprise these last two games but there's also a reason Pikiell played Geo for 39 minutes against Miami. The shooting is rough (3-14 overall) but he's shown some ability to drive, can competently dribble, and isn't a zero defensively, which marks an upgrade over last year's backup PG situation.
Montez Mathis
Grade: D
There are some things Mathis does well: He can be a complete pest defensively, and he attacks the rim and draws fouls. Those are both important things that can be built on. However, he's been a total liability offensively. This isn't impugning his future potential or writing him off, it's just an evaluation of his play so far. 8-31 on two-pointers is brutal, and 3-14 from three isn't much better. He needs to improve at finishing at the rim and he needs to see when it's not there and back it out rather than force it up.
Mamdou Doucoure
Grade: D-
To whatever extent I expected a sophomore leap, it hasn't happened. How he went from 13 and 9 against Reggie Lynch, Jordan Murphy, and Minnesota early in last year's schedule to what he is now might forever be a mystery. He grabbed 6 boards in 10 minutes against EMU, a glimmer of hope, but has just 2 in 9 minutes since. His only made field goal was an ugly banked-in jumper against Fairleigh Dickinson. I have nothing else to say here.
Overall Grade: B
Why is this grade a B when so many players graded out lower? Simple: The coaching staff does a good job and this team plays hard. They're more as a team than the sum of the individual parts.
Outlook
I'm optimistic looking forward. One of my talking points this off-season was that the new guys couldn't possibly shoot threes worse than the 21% that Sanders, Williams, and Freeman produced. Well, through eight games Harper, Mathis, and McConnell are shooting 16%. Oops. I do think that will pick up, even if it's just to 25%. And the addition of Kiss and Omoruyi's newfound longball have offset that. Turnovers are up, which was easy to predict. The foul shooting is going to improve a little bit, but opponents are also going to shoot better than the 53.1% they've shot so far, so there's no hidden regression to be had at the stripe.
Will we finish higher than 14th? I still don't know. There's no doubt that we're a better team than last year but the Big Ten is also much improved. I'd like to say yes but the shooting overall has fallen short of my expectations and has especially been a letdown after the first two games. This is really going to be the key. The four freshman need to start putting the ball through the hoop while continuing to develop the rest of their games. The non-Harper freshman are shooting 31.7% on two pointers and the non-Johnson (he's 0-0) freshman are shooting 15.9% on three pointers. Even accounting for the fact that they're freshmen in their first eight games, those are bad numbers.
On the flip side, Baker, Omoruyi, Kiss, and Doorson have played really well. There are quibbles to be had but they're all positive contributors. The coaches do a good job, the team seems to have chemistry, and they play hard.
Right now I see one projection system (Torvik) has us going 15-15 (7-13). KenPom has us going 13-17 (5-15). I think splitting the difference at 14-16 (6-14) is the baseline for a good/successful season. Worse than that and I'll be disappointed. Better than that and I'll be very happy.
