Speaking of math - $22 million x 365 is $8.03 BILLION. At average salaries that would cover 160,000 people out of work and not able to get a new job - i.e. more than 12,5000 new unemployed and unemployable people a month.
OT: $30 barrel oil best thing for USA since Steve Jobs
- Thread starter GeorgeStreet
- Start date
Its not that scary - poor people don't make good international terrorists. They cant afford plane tickets, or weapons or training. Al Shabbab is no threat to us, nor is Boko Haram - because they dont have oil revenues backing them like ISIS does. The Taliban was terrible for Afghanistan - but was nothing to us until they provided safe haven for the Saudi backed Osamites.
So no, it's not "BILLIONS" and no, those savings are NOT offset by the damage done to the U.S. economy, top to bottom. The roughly 10,000 job losses in the last few months, alone, are about the same as the total savings in consumer fuel costs in the last year.
This issue isn't terribly complicated. It's mostly math. You're on the wrong side. Let it go.[/QUOTE]
It may be mostly math but then you are on the wrong side as your math is way off
This issue isn't terribly complicated. It's mostly math. You're on the wrong side. Let it go.[/QUOTE]
It may be mostly math but then you are on the wrong side as your math is way off
Stupid decimals.
Okay, so it is BILLIONS.
One other thing occurred to me though, in thinking about it. It's really only that much money if the price of gas drops all at once. It didn't. If the price of gas went down roughly 80 cents a gallon over a year, it did it in increments of a penny or two per week, right? So to figure out how much anybody would really save would require doing that math. Conservatively speaking, it cuts the number roughly in half.
I figure I'm more or less an average driver - 15,000 miles per year, combination of city and highway, my car has averaged 24.8 mpg over the last 10,000 miles. So if the price of gas were to drop the full 80 cents a gallon all at once, at the beginning of the year, my total savings on the year is about $480 bucks. Of course, it's less than that, per the above. So let's be generous and say that I saved $300 in the last year on gas.
That's hardly stimulating to the economy. For one thing, the price of food has gone up by more than that in the last year.
OK I think I got it, Let's keep them rich or even richer, so they can
buy smart bombs, and better killing devices, and really wreck havoc.
well here is a master of the obvious perspective-
Problem originated with the "peak oil" concept - where oil became a speculative investment and futures trading contracts grew exponentially - causing very high price in oil. This lead to a lot of folks "getting into the oil business" - as the price dynamics were very appealing.
As energy -mainly oil - became such a large part of the economy and the stock market as well, low oil prices has had a negative effect on the economy and market - putting oil service companies, drillers out of work. The next domino are the debt holders - mainly banks - that have loaned money to the oil drillers who potentially will be bankrupt.
Problem originated with the "peak oil" concept - where oil became a speculative investment and futures trading contracts grew exponentially - causing very high price in oil. This lead to a lot of folks "getting into the oil business" - as the price dynamics were very appealing.
As energy -mainly oil - became such a large part of the economy and the stock market as well, low oil prices has had a negative effect on the economy and market - putting oil service companies, drillers out of work. The next domino are the debt holders - mainly banks - that have loaned money to the oil drillers who potentially will be bankrupt.
I think you're right, but I think from the perspective of the banks the problem is compounded further by the fact that a lot of the money they have out to the shale companies is long-term debt.
The rational part of me thinks that OPEC is going to have to correct the market, especially with Iran getting back into it. Iran's production costs are lower than everybody else's and the rest of the members are going to get really poor, really fast, if they play that game. I would expect to see production limits by the end of Q2.
funny how most economists got this wrong - as the conventional wisdom was that this was so good for consumers it would boost the economy - oil became such a large part of the economy that low oil prices is nw hurting the economy.
FWIW the Economist opined last year in article about winners and losers that low energy prices were something of a break even prospect for the US.
At what threshold?
One of the things that's being whispered about is that oil could go below $20 a barrel - some analysts are even saying we would see $10. If that were to happen, there's general agreement that it would be an economic disaster.
I don't remember the price--but I think it was something higher than where we are now and higher than where we might be headed, which could change the entire situation. Certainly from a geopolitical perspective ultra-low oil prices are likely to alter a lot of things, some for the better but others quite possibly catastrophically bad. "Drill, baby, drill." Be careful what you wish for.
There was a piece on CNBC just this afternoon seems like most of the money center banks like WFC/BAC/JPM//C all have about 20B each in exposure to the energy sector which accounts to about a few percentage points of their loan portfolios. Some of it investment grade depending on the bank, some secured debt or higher seniority. They all seem to be putting aside around 1B in loan loss reserves in the coming year should oil remain low for the next couple years and they're all planning for that outlook. European banks seem to have a slightly larger portion of the loan portfolios exposed to energy mid to high single digits. The regionals are the ones who could be more exposed possibly due to investment grade quality and percentage of their loan books.
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well certainly regime change globally is an issue- for the US economy we are service based. Our manufacturing base is no longer what it used to be.
Might be good for airlines - but that has yet to materialize.
Might be good for airlines - but that has yet to materialize.
Airlines (and large trucking companies) hedge their fuel costs. If fuel prices go down, they keep the cash on their books and use it for when fuel prices go back up. It's why you don't see significant changes in airfares as fuel prices fluctuate.
The real "crystal ball" question is "what do fuel markets look like, long-term?" The reality is that there is more oil in the shales of Wyoming than there is in all of Saudi Arabia - by a considerable amount. If technology renders it economically recoverable, than the whole idea of "peak oil" goes right out the window. When you add in the possibility of decreased consumption due to higher vehicle CAFE standards, broader implementation of hybrid vehicles and alternative forms of electricity production, you're looking at a domestic crude oil reserve that's 200, 300 years deep.
The reserve issue has been there for years and ignored by many. Stockpiles have been at all times highs for a long time but the traders would bid up the prices because of a minor event some where in the middle east.
Like the B mortgage crisis, this was predictable
True. Amazing things are being done.
Even among airlines - the "next generation" of commercial aircraft, the ones that are just starting to come online now, like the A350, the 787 and the new 737 MAX, are upwards of 30% more fuel efficient than the current generation, which in turn were 25-30% more efficient than the previous generation. Looking to the following generation, which will likely be 100% composite in terms of their construction, I would expect an equivalent gain in fuel efficiency. That means, roughly speaking, that the airliners of 2030 will use about 35% as much fuel per passenger mile as the original 707/DC-8 class of aircraft.
What I don't get is the slow, orderly take down of oil's price in the market. The variables are known, we know who has what and what it costs them to produce and we know the demand side will be tepid for the foreseeable future. So if it's going to $20, take it to $20.
The market is a hostage to the price of oil and will not rebound until there is a floor. The uncertainty of where that floor is needs to end.
The market is a hostage to the price of oil and will not rebound until there is a floor. The uncertainty of where that floor is needs to end.
my guess is that the first removal/casualty of the price action will be the Canadian Oil sands as this is the least desirable form of crude and most expensive to produce.
What's interesting that in NJ we used to be fed Brent North Sea oil to our local refineries. We are now receiving North Dakota Bakken oil via rail - through Canada then through Albany.
What's interesting that in NJ we used to be fed Brent North Sea oil to our local refineries. We are now receiving North Dakota Bakken oil via rail - through Canada then through Albany.
Well to be honest - I dont think you are going to remember to come here in 15 years to rip on me if I am wrong.
Lol, good strategy, but you don't know me very well. I have an excellent memory for useless stuff like this - I still rip old friends for dumb stuff they said or did back in high school. Anyway, about 5 years will be good enough to show no movement toward that prediction.
No big deal, I took that Prius comment as you coyly backing off the 15-year projection.
In 15 years, all US cars will be electric, we won't own them, they will pick us up like an uber and drive themselves to a parking lot somewhere and recharge themselves. We'll probably pay a monthly subscription fee to whatever network we choose (Google, Apple, Uber, Tesla and whoever makes the transition from the old car companies.)
I met an engineer at a wedding working on robotics and driverless cars at Carnegie Mellon about two years ago. Went out with the groom a couple of months ago and said Uber swept in and hired him and nearly every single engineer in the program, to work on this very thing. Apple has over 1,000 engineers working on it. The government is about to earmark $4 billion to create all the guidelines and regulations across the country for driverless cars. It's going to happen fairly quickly from here. The tech is proven and the pressure from the biggest companies in tech and the car companies, will force the government to act.
Musk: Owning a car that is not self-driving, over time, will become like owning a horse. You would own it and use it for sentimental reasons, but not for daily use.
Here's the interview...
http://www.treehugger.com/clean-tec...-secret-wide-ranging-bbc-interview-video.html
Not sure if you're kidding or not, but none of that is going to happen in 15 years.
As much as I appreciate the reliable citations of "talking to this one guy at a wedding" and "reading Elon Musk's self-serving interview" on an environmental blog, most of what you say is completely ridiculous. Some of it will happen, slowly, over the course of decades, not years. No one with a clue would say "all cars" within "15 years" about any one of those changes, let alone all of them.
Agreed. 100%.
Lest we forget, those of us who were grade-schoolers in the late 60s were promised flying cars by the year 2000.
Where's my flying car?
The first rule of innovation is that it never happens in the manner in which it is predicted.
Forecasts
Autonomous car forecasts
This page lists the most recent predictions about when driverless cars will be available on the market:
First autonomous Toyota to be available in 2020
Toyota is starting to overcome its long-standing reluctance with respect to autonomous driving: It plans to bring the first models capable of autonomous highway driving to the market by 2020.
(Source: Wired.com, 2010-10-08)
Elon Musk now expects first fully autonomous Tesla by 2018, approved by 2021
In an interview by Danish newspaper Borsen, Tesla’s founder Elon Musk accelerates his timeline for the introduction of fully autonomous Teslas by 2 years (!) compared to his estimate less than a year ago (October 2014). He now expects fully autonomous Teslas to be ready by 2018 but notes that regulatory approval may take 1 to 3 more years thereafter.
(Source: Borsen Interview on youtube, timeline: 8:06-8:29, recorded on 2015-9-23)
Driverless cars will be in use all over the world by 2025
US Secretary of Transportation stated at the 2015 Frankfurt Auto show that he expects driverless cars to be in use all over the world within the next 10 years.
(Source: Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 2015-09-19)
Uber fleet to be driverless by 2030
Uber CEO, Travis Kalanick, has indicated in a tweet that he expects Uber’s fleet to be driverless by 2030. The service will then be so inexpensive and ubiquitous that car ownership will be obsolete.
(Source: Mobility Lab, 2015-08-18)
Ford CEO expects fully autonomous cars by 2020
In an interview with Forbes, Mark Fields, CEO of Ford estimated that fully autonomous vehicles would be available on the market within 5 years. But he was reluctant to claim that Ford would have an autonomous vehicle on the market by then.
(Source: Forbes, 2015-02-09).
Next generation Audi A8 capable of fully autonomous driving in 2017
Stefan Moser, Head of Product and Technology Communications at Audi has announced that the next generation of their A8 limousine will be able to drive itself with full autonomy.
(Source: motoring.com.au, 2014-10-22)
Tesla CEO expects true autonomous driving by 2023
Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla estimates that “five or six years from now we will be able to achieve true autonomous driving where you could literally get in the car, go to sleep and wake up at your destination”. He then added another 2 to 3 years for regulatory approval.
(Source: Huffington Post, 2014-10-15)
Jaguar and Land-Rover to provide fully autonomous cars by 2024 says Director of Research and Technlogy
At the 2014 Paris Motor Show Dr. Wolfgang Epple, Jaguar and Land Rover’s Director of Research and Technology said that about fully autonomous driving: “For Jaguar and Land Rover it will happen within the next 10 years”.
(Source: Drive.com.au, 2014-10-03)
Fully autonomous vehicles could be ready by 2025, predicts Daimler chairmanDieter Zetsche, chairman of Daimler, predicts that fully autonomous vehicles which can drive without human intervention and might not even have a steering wheel could be available on the market by 2025.
(Source: The Detroit News, 2014-01-13)
Nissan to provide fully autonomous vehicles by 2020
Andy Palmer, the Executive Vice President of California-based Nissan Motors Ltd., has announced that Nissan will make fully autonomous vehicles available to the consumer by 2020. These cars will be able to drive in urban traffic. In contrast to Google’s cars, Palmer claimed that they will not need detailed 3D maps for local navigation.
(Source: Nissan Motors, 2013-08-27)
Truly autonomous cars to populate roads by 2028-2032 estimates insurance think tank executiveAt a meeting of the Society of Automotive Engineers, Robert Hartwig, President of the Insurance Information Institute estimated that it will take between 15 and 20 years until truly autonomous vehicles populate US roads.(Source: The Detroit News, 2013-02-14)
Driverless cars coming to showrooms by 2020 says Nissan’s CEO
During this years’ CES, Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Nissan said that driverless cars will be ready for showtime by the end of this decade.
(Source: Forbes.com, 2013-1-14)
Continental to make fully autonomous driving a reality by 2025
Automotive supplier Continental has just announced that automated driving is at the core of its long-term strategy. It has formed a new business unit for “Advanced driver assistance systems” and plans to make fully autonomous driving available by 2025.
Source: Continental, 2012-12-18
Intel CTO predicts that autonomous car will arrive by 2022
Justin Rattner, CTO of Intel predicts that driverless cars will be available within 10 years. Intel is hoping to equip autonomous smart cars with its Atom and Core processors.
(Source: Computerworld, 2012-10-22)
Sergey Brin plans to have Google driverless car in the market by 2018
Google’s founder Sergey Brin has made it clear that the company plans to have its driverless cars on the market no later than 2018. At the signing ceremony for California’s autonomous vehicles law, he outlined Googles path towards commercialization of its driverless cars. Within 2013 Google plans to expand the number and users of their driverless cars to Google employees. Thereafter it will not take longer than 5 years to get the cars into the market.
(Source: Driverless car market watch, 2012-10-02)
IEEE predicts up to 75% of vehicles will be autonomous in 2040
Expert members of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) have determined that driverless vehicles will be the most viable form of intelligent transportation. They estimate that up to 75% of all vehicles will be autonomous by 2040.
(Source: IEEE, 2012-09-05)
Autonomous car forecasts
This page lists the most recent predictions about when driverless cars will be available on the market:
First autonomous Toyota to be available in 2020
Toyota is starting to overcome its long-standing reluctance with respect to autonomous driving: It plans to bring the first models capable of autonomous highway driving to the market by 2020.
(Source: Wired.com, 2010-10-08)
Elon Musk now expects first fully autonomous Tesla by 2018, approved by 2021
In an interview by Danish newspaper Borsen, Tesla’s founder Elon Musk accelerates his timeline for the introduction of fully autonomous Teslas by 2 years (!) compared to his estimate less than a year ago (October 2014). He now expects fully autonomous Teslas to be ready by 2018 but notes that regulatory approval may take 1 to 3 more years thereafter.
(Source: Borsen Interview on youtube, timeline: 8:06-8:29, recorded on 2015-9-23)
Driverless cars will be in use all over the world by 2025
US Secretary of Transportation stated at the 2015 Frankfurt Auto show that he expects driverless cars to be in use all over the world within the next 10 years.
(Source: Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 2015-09-19)
Uber fleet to be driverless by 2030
Uber CEO, Travis Kalanick, has indicated in a tweet that he expects Uber’s fleet to be driverless by 2030. The service will then be so inexpensive and ubiquitous that car ownership will be obsolete.
(Source: Mobility Lab, 2015-08-18)
Ford CEO expects fully autonomous cars by 2020
In an interview with Forbes, Mark Fields, CEO of Ford estimated that fully autonomous vehicles would be available on the market within 5 years. But he was reluctant to claim that Ford would have an autonomous vehicle on the market by then.
(Source: Forbes, 2015-02-09).
Next generation Audi A8 capable of fully autonomous driving in 2017
Stefan Moser, Head of Product and Technology Communications at Audi has announced that the next generation of their A8 limousine will be able to drive itself with full autonomy.
(Source: motoring.com.au, 2014-10-22)
Tesla CEO expects true autonomous driving by 2023
Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla estimates that “five or six years from now we will be able to achieve true autonomous driving where you could literally get in the car, go to sleep and wake up at your destination”. He then added another 2 to 3 years for regulatory approval.
(Source: Huffington Post, 2014-10-15)
Jaguar and Land-Rover to provide fully autonomous cars by 2024 says Director of Research and Technlogy
At the 2014 Paris Motor Show Dr. Wolfgang Epple, Jaguar and Land Rover’s Director of Research and Technology said that about fully autonomous driving: “For Jaguar and Land Rover it will happen within the next 10 years”.
(Source: Drive.com.au, 2014-10-03)
Fully autonomous vehicles could be ready by 2025, predicts Daimler chairmanDieter Zetsche, chairman of Daimler, predicts that fully autonomous vehicles which can drive without human intervention and might not even have a steering wheel could be available on the market by 2025.
(Source: The Detroit News, 2014-01-13)
Nissan to provide fully autonomous vehicles by 2020
Andy Palmer, the Executive Vice President of California-based Nissan Motors Ltd., has announced that Nissan will make fully autonomous vehicles available to the consumer by 2020. These cars will be able to drive in urban traffic. In contrast to Google’s cars, Palmer claimed that they will not need detailed 3D maps for local navigation.
(Source: Nissan Motors, 2013-08-27)
Truly autonomous cars to populate roads by 2028-2032 estimates insurance think tank executiveAt a meeting of the Society of Automotive Engineers, Robert Hartwig, President of the Insurance Information Institute estimated that it will take between 15 and 20 years until truly autonomous vehicles populate US roads.(Source: The Detroit News, 2013-02-14)
Driverless cars coming to showrooms by 2020 says Nissan’s CEO
During this years’ CES, Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Nissan said that driverless cars will be ready for showtime by the end of this decade.
(Source: Forbes.com, 2013-1-14)
Continental to make fully autonomous driving a reality by 2025
Automotive supplier Continental has just announced that automated driving is at the core of its long-term strategy. It has formed a new business unit for “Advanced driver assistance systems” and plans to make fully autonomous driving available by 2025.
Source: Continental, 2012-12-18
Intel CTO predicts that autonomous car will arrive by 2022
Justin Rattner, CTO of Intel predicts that driverless cars will be available within 10 years. Intel is hoping to equip autonomous smart cars with its Atom and Core processors.
(Source: Computerworld, 2012-10-22)
Sergey Brin plans to have Google driverless car in the market by 2018
Google’s founder Sergey Brin has made it clear that the company plans to have its driverless cars on the market no later than 2018. At the signing ceremony for California’s autonomous vehicles law, he outlined Googles path towards commercialization of its driverless cars. Within 2013 Google plans to expand the number and users of their driverless cars to Google employees. Thereafter it will not take longer than 5 years to get the cars into the market.
(Source: Driverless car market watch, 2012-10-02)
IEEE predicts up to 75% of vehicles will be autonomous in 2040
Expert members of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) have determined that driverless vehicles will be the most viable form of intelligent transportation. They estimate that up to 75% of all vehicles will be autonomous by 2040.
(Source: IEEE, 2012-09-05)
Chase, do I need to point out the difference between "selling a single car that can drive itself in certain situations" and "all cars will be part of an all-electric, autonomous car-sharing network inside a decade and a half," or can you figure that out on your own?
Copying and pasting the "most recent headlines" section of a horrible WordPress blog isn't telling me anything I don't know. It also isn't supporting any of what you blurted out above - the only relevant projection there says "2040" (that's 24 years, not 15) and "75 percent" (fyi, that's not "all").
Also, self-driving cars can and will have gas engines, so they have nothing at all to do with the "all electric" aspect.
Copying and pasting the "most recent headlines" section of a horrible WordPress blog isn't telling me anything I don't know. It also isn't supporting any of what you blurted out above - the only relevant projection there says "2040" (that's 24 years, not 15) and "75 percent" (fyi, that's not "all").
Also, self-driving cars can and will have gas engines, so they have nothing at all to do with the "all electric" aspect.
Lol, what a load of backtracking. The only relevant prediction cones from the insurance industry who stands to lose 90% of their business? Apple and google are going to make gas powered cars?
Comical.
As a net importer of oil, the US should, on average, benefit from lower oil prices. It has destroyed my brokerage accounts, beyond energy companies and their investors, America, as a whole, should benefit from lower prices since we import a bulk of our energy.
Per the EIA website:
How much gasoline does the United States consume?
In 2014, about 136.78 billion gallons1 (or 3.26 billion barrels) of gasoline were consumed in the United States, a daily average of about 374.74 million gallons (or 8.92 million barrels).3 This was about 4% less than the record high of about 142.35 billion gallons (or 3.39 billion barrels) consumed in 2007.
So assuming we went from $2.77 to $1.88, that is a savings of $333mm per day or $121.7B per year. So a much more substantial amount. The US averages around 19 million barrels of oil consumption daily (consumer, industrial, commercial, etc.)...so you can double and then some the $121.7B savings to something closer to $250B. All in all, not a bad tax cut for the USA.
To add, the US imports about 9 million barrels of oil a day (again per EIA), mostly from Canada, OPEC, and Mexico. So with oil at $60 a year ago and $30 today (slightly less), each day we are sending $270 million less out of the country, which can only help consumers, businesses, etc. If you believe that tax cuts are stimulative, if nothing else, lower energy prices are offsetting the negative impact to North Dakota, Oklahoma, Texas, etc. Clearly the negative impact in oil regions will outweigh the local benefits, but nationally, we should be better off.
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Your information is incorrect - I've located several web sites that indicate retail (pump) sales of gasoline to motorists averages less than 20M gallons per day.
In your source, you forgot to consider this footnote, which would by definition include gasoline exported from the U.S.:
2) EIA uses product supplied to represent approximate consumption of petroleum products. Product supplied measures the disappearance of these products from primary sources, such as refineries, natural gas processing plants, blending plants, pipelines, and bulk terminals.
Looks like you are right and it shocks me. EIA has it around 26 million gallons a day. Considering there are ~250 million cars in the USA, that assumes that the average car consumes 1/10th of a gallon a day...a number that also shocks me. I get it that all cars aren't on the road at all times, but still...my commute alone is probably two gallons a day.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=A103600001&f=M
Regardless of the impact on the US consumer...if we consume ~19 million barrels a day, oil at $30 vs. $60 means that the cost of energy in this country is $570 million less per day or $208 billion less per year. Obviously energy companies, employees, and investors feel the sting from that, but retailers, consumers, industrial companies, and others benefit...so it isn't all one sided. I view it as a tax cut to the US economy provided by US energy companies, OPEC, the investor class in the USA, and other energy producing nations.
Are you sniffing a big bucket of bleach and ammonia? Or are you just the least entertaining troll on the Internet?
The IEEE stands for "Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers". It says so right in the link you provided. In terms you might understand: that one guy you met at the wedding in your really cool story, he's an engineer. The IEEE is an association full of such folks. And its prediction is the only relevant one because it's the only one that even vaguely relates to your moronic predictions.
Google and Apple aren't even an operational part of the auto industry at the moment.All those names like "Toyota," "Nissan" and "Jaguar" (also in your very own links) are. They build and sell large lines of gasoline-powered cars, with one or two token electric models thrown in. In launching technology they invested billions of dollars in, they're going to want to sell it to more than the 1 percent of car buyers that see electric motor power as a viable option. Some of them, like Cadillac, have even announced what models they will be launching autonomous tech on .. lo and behold, gas power!
tl;dr you should never utter another word on this topic again. for your own sake
Yeah, but I'm not sure you can really look at it that way. If the oil companies are paying 30 vs 60 per barrel, that looks like a significant difference on paper, but if you break it down it becomes 1.43 a gallon vs .72 a gallon. From what I've read, the production cost of gasoline (of which there are roughly 30 gallons in a barrel of crude) is fairly constant at about .20 a gallon. The various taxes are fixed. So as you lower the price of crude, the pump price of gas doesn't decrease in a linear fashion - it can't, because your fixed costs from well to pump don't change.
Many big banks have a large exposure in lending to the oil companies worldwide...currently on their balance sheets.
Wonder when they will be tooting their whistles to take down down the economy because of their greed to loan so much to the oil industry.
Wall Street....owned by the banks...are naturally going to take everyone down with them.
