OT: NFL Draft - Good article on drafting better or drafting more

[kapyoche]

Economists' analysis of the NFL Draft.

http://www.vox.com/2015/4/30/8516007/nfl-draft-economics

 

[JQRU91]

The Patriots seem to trade down a lot and stockpile picks. Years ago when Robert Edwards got hurt in that rookie beach Pro Bowl game, I remember hearing that the commissioner told Bob Kraft that having a lot of draft picks was good for building a team. It may have been in reference to picks they may have gotten in compensation for the Edwards' injury.

 

[ScarletCrimson]

Really interesting perspective.

 

[Rokodesh]

reminds me of Jimmy Johnson cutting all the guys from the Walker trade to get more draft picks. Ahead of his time.

 

[Abro1975]

Good point in that article that there is only a 55% chance of the first guy being picked in a postion being better than the 3rd guy at that position. They use the example of Buffalo trading up to grab WR Sammy Watkis as the first WR, while the Giants took Odell Beckham as the 3rd WR , looks like Giants did better.

Also, look at last years QBs picked. Looking like Minn did a lot better with Bridgewater as the 3rd QB , than Jax did with the first ( Blake Bortles) and of course, Cleveland took Johnny Manziel as the 2nd QB .

NAME POS SCHOOL ROUND PK(OVR) TEAM
Blake Bortles QB UCF 1 3(3) Jacksonville
Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M 1 22(22) Cleveland
Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville 1 32(32) Minnesota
Derek Carr QB Fresno State 2 4(36) Oakland
Jimmy Garoppolo QB Eastern Illinois 2 30(62) New England
Logan Thomas QB Virginia Tech 4 20(120) Arizona
Tom Savage QB Pittsburgh 4 35(135) Houston
Aaron Murray QB Georgia 5 23(163) Kansas City
AJ McCarron QB Alabama 5 24(164) Cincinnati
Zach Mettenberger QB LSU 6 2(178) Tennessee
David Fales QB San Jose State 6 7(183) Chicago
Keith Wenning QB Ball State 6 18(194) Baltimore
Tajh Boyd QB Clemson 6 37(213) NY Jets
Garrett Gilbert QB Southern Methodist 6 38(214) St. Louis

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

reminds me of Jimmy Johnson cutting all the guys from the Walker trade to get more draft picks. Ahead of his time.

But that is not the example this story is meant to support. Cutting known commodities for unknown commodities is just an example of Jimmy Johnson thinking he knows best. You'd have to list who he cut and who he got with those extra picks to begin to make the argument that this was a good move.