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OT - Stock Market is crashing

These economic doomsday hucksters do a disservice to the segment of the population who don't closely follow the markets, pushing their doomsday books and pay newsletters. "Buy Gold-the end is near!". How'd that work out for ya the last 3 years?

We're not on the brink of an economic collapse. It is just a correction that is fueled by the latest drop in oil prices. In the last 3 years the Dow went from 13000 to 18000- a very big run up. We're giving some of that back. We're now just below 16000. This isn't 2007-2008. If you bought SPY every time the market dropped 10%, you'd be doing very well.
 
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ScarletStateofNJ said:
These economic doomsday hucksters do a disservice to the segment of the population who don't closely follow the markets, pushing their doomsday books and pay newsletters. "Buy Gold-the end is near!". How'd that work out for ya the last 3 years?

We're not on the brink of an economic collapse. It is just a correction that is fueled by the latest drop in oil prices. In the last 3 years the Dow went from 13000 to 18000- a very big run up. We're giving some of that back. We're now just below 16000. This isn't 2007-2008. If you bought SPY every time the market dropped 10%, you'd be doing very well.
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This is to both you and Rutgers Sam. Actually, the stock market is the last thing to go and a reactionary variable to what is going on in the economy. As I said before, don't look at the market, look at the fundamentals. Rather than taking histrionic shots at people who you disagree with, take a look at John Williams Shadow Stats site and take a look at things like unemployment, GDP, manufacturing, Baltic Dry Index etc. Walmart announced that they are closing 28,750 stores. Does that sound like a good thing? And does it have anything to do with the stock market?

Just to be clear, I'm not predicting the end of the world nor am I one of those Doomsday Preppers. But the monetary system is simply not sustainable and there is going to be a period of pain for everyone. Eventually they will reset the system and we will all go on. Sticking your heads in the sand isn't going to make it go away.

And btw, gold was $300.00 in 2000. It is a bit under $1,200.00 today. You want to compare that to the S&P 500 over the same period? The one doing the disservice, is people like you who have no idea what they are talking about and telling the masses to ride out the market and not buy precious metals.
 
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albanyknight said:
This is to both you and Rutgers Sam. Actually, the stock market is the last thing to go and a reactionary variable to what is going on in the economy. As I said before, don't look at the market, look at the fundamentals. Rather than taking histrionic shots at people who you disagree with, take a look at John Williams Shadow Stats site and take a look at things like unemployment, GDP, manufacturing, Baltic Dry Index etc. Walmart announced that they are closing 28,750 stores. Does that sound like a good thing? And does it have anything to do with the stock market?

Just to be clear, I'm not predicting the end of the world nor am I one of those Doomsday Preppers. But the monetary system is simply not sustainable and there is going to be a period of pain for everyone. Eventually they will reset the system and we will all go on. Sticking your heads in the sand isn't going to make it go away.

And btw, gold was $300.00 in 2000. It is a bit under $1,200.00 today. You want to compare that to the S&P 500 over the same period? The one doing the disservice, is people like you who have no idea what they are talking about and telling the masses to ride out the market and not buy precious metals.
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OK, look at unemployment (u4 and u6). OK, look at GDP. OK, look at CPI. What makes you pause in a US consumer-driven economy? I will say that we will surely see a big uptick in energy sector unemployment and a negative impact on that sector's stocks but that's been a slow moving car crash.

US Manufacturing Index (PMI) has gone down primarily on a decrease of input costs. A decrease I the cost of raw goods isn't really the biggest problem for the US economy.

Also where did you read that WalMart is closing 28,000 stores? I read that they're closing a few hundred redundant stores throughout the world and about 150 in the US.

Oh, and most people don't use the Baltic Dry Index as a leading indicator of anything beyond the Chinese economy these days.

A very good piece of advice is to buy good quality stocks when everyone is selling the sector. So even in the energy sector there are good low debt, solid cash position companies that are getting cheap like: SYRG, HP, DRQ, and even XOM.

Finally, you have a lot of nerve bringing up precious medals, given that the 5 year return on every one of them is about negative 30-40%.

Go ahead and buy gold, I'll be looking at individual best of breed companies with strong balance sheets that are getting cheaper. See you in 3 years.
 
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http://www.naturalnews.com/049112_debt_GDP_entitlement_programs.html

Sorry about the Walmart comment. I thought it was 279 or 289 stores and mis-typed. So you are right about that but that is where you being right ends.

The most important indicator is the Debt-to-GDP ratio. Our GDP to debt ratio is over 100 which should tell you that we will never be able to pay off our debts which is approximately $18 billion but is dwarfed by the number of unfunded liabilities and derivative contracts.

Obviously, we are not going to convince each other but your knowledge of precious metals comes straight from Larry Kramer and CNBC. I just showed you that gold has quadrupled in value in the past fifteen years and I'm the one with a lot of nerve? Are you kidding me? The only reason precious metals has not taken off is because the Comex market has been manipulated just like Libor. If you took all the gold in the world, it would just fill one Olympic size pool. In other words it is a finite resource and has been used as a basis of money and commerce since the beginning of civilization.

Suffice to say in three years, the stock market will be lucky to be at 10,000 and gold will be off the charts. Good luck to you. You are going to need it.
 
albanyknight said:
http://www.naturalnews.com/049112_debt_GDP_entitlement_programs.html

Sorry about the Walmart comment. I thought it was 279 or 289 stores and mis-typed. So you are right about that but that is where you being right ends.

The most important indicator is the Debt-to-GDP ratio. Our GDP to debt ratio is over 100 which should tell you that we will never be able to pay off our debts which is approximately $18 billion but is dwarfed by the number of unfunded liabilities and derivative contracts.

Obviously, we are not going to convince each other but your knowledge of precious metals comes straight from Larry Kramer and CNBC. I just showed you that gold has quadrupled in value in the past fifteen years and I'm the one with a lot of nerve? Are you kidding me? The only reason precious metals has not taken off is because the Comex market has been manipulated just like Libor. If you took all the gold in the world, it would just fill one Olympic size pool. In other words it is a finite resource and has been used as a basis of money and commerce since the beginning of civilization.

Suffice to say in three years, the stock market will be lucky to be at 10,000 and gold will be off the charts. Good luck to you. You are going to need it.
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We've been leveraged in debt for a generation.. And there have been doomsday predictions every day since that have failed to come true, time and time again. Employment is rising as is our GDP and consumer spending/consumption. Housing is also doing well.

You seriously need to take a step back and stop being brainwashed by the plethora of extremists websites and newsletters out there. They feed off of people who believe they're somehow smarter than everyone else by predicting impending economic calamity. These extreme views are more a function of people's susceptibility to see only what they want to see than reality. I'd be very careful falling victim to these charlatans.
 
albanyknight said:
http://www.naturalnews.com/049112_debt_GDP_entitlement_programs.html

Sorry about the Walmart comment. I thought it was 279 or 289 stores and mis-typed. So you are right about that but that is where you being right ends.

The most important indicator is the Debt-to-GDP ratio. Our GDP to debt ratio is over 100 which should tell you that we will never be able to pay off our debts which is approximately $18 billion but is dwarfed by the number of unfunded liabilities and derivative contracts.

Obviously, we are not going to convince each other but your knowledge of precious metals comes straight from Larry Kramer and CNBC. I just showed you that gold has quadrupled in value in the past fifteen years and I'm the one with a lot of nerve? Are you kidding me? The only reason precious metals has not taken off is because the Comex market has been manipulated just like Libor. If you took all the gold in the world, it would just fill one Olympic size pool. In other words it is a finite resource and has been used as a basis of money and commerce since the beginning of civilization.

Suffice to say in three years, the stock market will be lucky to be at 10,000 and gold will be off the charts. Good luck to you. You are going to need it.
Click to expand...
Yes our Debt:GDP has gone up but the fears of inflation/USD devaluation/interest rate explosion never came to fruition. Why? Mainly because the dollar and the US economy is the least dirty shirt in the pile. Also most don't quote a 15 yr trade duration. Outside of fixed income, most trades don't last more than 3-5 yrs.

Moreover,read up on factor investing. Just because equities go down it doesn't mean gold will go up.
 
RUJohnny99 said:
oNObxMf.gif
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OK Bail ins isn't a thing.
 
Babybull244 said:
Ok - you like CNBC?

Richard Fisher a voting Governor at the Federal Reserve Bank - indicates the Market is rigged - was front loaded!

Peace out

View embedded media
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-Richard Fisher is not, and has never been, a Governor at the Fed.
-The position you're thinking of (Dallas Fed President) doesn't get another shot to vote on the FOMC till 2017.
-The last time Fisher voted was in 2014, and he's now retired.


He failed horribly as an investor when he tried being a fund manager. He then failed horribly as a politician running as a democrat in Texas. After that he was appointed to get NAFTA rolling.

He may not be the guy you want to quote. History has shown he had the worst record of anyone at the Fed before and during the crisis, and as the 2011 transcripts are released, his post-crisis arguments aren't holding up either.
 
What I think is that we are in prime position right now to get bargains in the stock market. Walmart is probably closing brick and mortar stores because of the increase in their online sales.
 
theRU said:
CMG was a good buy at 408... I hope some of you guys that are active got in on that.
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Nope I didn't, like I said it's out of my wheelhouse in terms of beta/volatility. Been trading around lately in PFE, GE, MDLZ, ABT, NKE, SBUX. The one I regret missing recently is BA. I was so tempted the day it got hit by that SEC notice when it went as low as 102 and I was seriously considering it around the 103-104 area where I thought it had some support but in the end I chickened out. I traded it earlier too after earnings when I thought there was a big short term overreaction to the earnings. Should've have done the same again for this short term overreaction. Oh well, win some "lose" some.

Said in one of the other threads a few weeks ago, I thought we'd be in a trading range between low 1800s and low 1900s and so far that seems to be holding for the most part. We're at the high end of that range again, we'll see if it breaks out or not. I still think the bias is to the downside myself whenever we do break out of the range, but we'll see.

So did you end up selling any of CMG or you still holding for your 600 target area?
 
rutgersguy1 said:
Nope I didn't, like I said it's out of my wheelhouse in terms of beta/volatility. Been trading around lately in PFE, GE, MDLZ, ABT, NKE, SBUX. The one I regret missing recently is BA. I was so tempted the day it got hit by that SEC notice when it went as low as 102 and I was seriously considering it around the 103-104 area where I thought it had some support but in the end I chickened out. I traded it earlier too after earnings when I thought there was a big short term overreaction to the earnings. Should've have done the same again for this short term overreaction. Oh well, win some "lose" some.

Said in one of the other threads a few weeks ago, I thought we'd be in a trading range between low 1800s and low 1900s and so far that seems to be holding for the most part. We're at the high end of that range again, we'll see if it breaks out or not. I still think the bias is to the downside myself whenever we do break out of the range, but we'll see.

So did you end up selling any of CMG or you still holding for your 600 target area?
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Sold half of my position. Keeping the other half long term. If it dips for whatever reason i may buy back in.
 
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theRU said:
i would hope not but you never know.I usually don't put out recos on anything that i dont feel strongly about. In fact i dont think i ever did on this board before.
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When I read these threads, I'm not really looking for recommendations but do like to read what other people are thinking and trading/investing in. Sometimes I won't have interest but others times it might be worth investigating. That's one of the main reasons I throw out names I've been trading in at the moment and the other is just to give examples of possible opportunities for similar setups for those that might be just starting.
 
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What about the housing market on a national level? Safe time to buy or another drop possible? Interest rates at near all time and 52 week lows, while prices have stabilized or are on the rise again in prime locations.
 
PhDKnight said:
What about the housing market on a national level? Safe time to buy or another drop possible? Interest rates at near all time and 52 week lows, while prices have stabilized or are on the rise again in prime locations.
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A house is a place to live. Buy one if you need a place to live. The money is practically free.
 
rutgersguy1 said:
When I read these threads, I'm not really looking for recommendations but do like to read what other people are thinking and trading/investing in. Sometimes I won't have interest but others times it might be worth investigating. That's one of the main reasons I throw out names I've been trading in at the moment and the other is just to give examples of possible opportunities for similar setups for those that might be just starting.
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Yeah i hear you. At the end of the day trade at your own risk anyway, but its good to talk with people and get their feel for trends.
 
PhDKnight said:
What about the housing market on a national level? Safe time to buy or another drop possible? Interest rates at near all time and 52 week lows, while prices have stabilized or are on the rise again in prime locations.
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Depends on how you would look at it. Rates have gone down despite the fed increase. Are you sitting on Cash, or are you taking out a loan. Do you currently own? Are you time sensitive?

All factor into your decision. People dream of buying high and selling low, but in reality most time people Buy and SELL at the same time.
 
theRU said:
i just run in the opposite direction and do FINE... everyone starts panicing, prices plunge, I BUY. We'll see how it works out but i just dropped 20m on chipotle as everybody was burying them at $409 per share.
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Phenomenal trade. The trick with down markets is to be really selective.

What most people never realize about a bear market is that it's rarely a beat down. Typically, it's death by a thousand cuts. Bear markets sand paper you to death.

We've had a nice 3 day rally but there has been nothing to change the perception of the big picture. I expect another leg sideways and down. The rallies suck ppl in for another sandpapering.
 
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albanyknight said:
This is to both you and Rutgers Sam. Actually, the stock market is the last thing to go and a reactionary variable to what is going on in the economy.
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This is completely wrong. It has been proven time and time again that the market is actually a leading indicator of future economic activity 6 to 9 months out. Go back to the bible, Norman Fosback's Stock Market Logic.
 
I have been following Vanguard Wellington fund since someone mentioned it a year or so ago. When equities go up, it goes up very little. But when equities go down, it goes down very little. I looks to pay out about 2.5 percent and has over 19 billion in assets. Not a bad thing to get for conservative people in my opinion.
 
The Fact that this thread is on this board is probably the greatest BUY signal you could get!!!
 
STAY. THE. COURSE.

On a long enough time line, we are ALWAYS a bull market. The only losers are those who panic or try to time the market. It's the difference between solid average annual returns and actually losing money. Another thing to keep in mind. . If the S&P averages 8% or so over a 40 year period, it actually returns 6 - 10% in a given year very seldomly. Normally, it will be either negative or extremely positive. If you are "timing" the market and miss some of the biggest moves, you are toast.

81.png
 
socaldave said:
The Fact that this thread is on this board is probably the greatest BUY signal you could get!!!
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When this thread and the oil threads first popped up a month ago, I said it could be a signal that we're feeling around for a short term bottom and it looks like that was the case. We've been in a trading range that I mentioned since for about the last month or so. Now a month later though just because more replies have been tacked on to the original thread I don't know that I'd say that or be confident yet that the ultimate bottom has been put in. We're at the high end of that range right now, we'll see if we get a sustained break out. I'm still not sold yet myself and still think when we do break out of the range it'll be to the downside and I still don't put that 1550-1600 area I've mentioned before out of the picture.
 
ScarletStateofNJ said:
These economic doomsday hucksters do a disservice to the segment of the population who don't closely follow the markets, pushing their doomsday books and pay newsletters. "Buy Gold-the end is near!". How'd that work out for ya the last 3 years?

We're not on the brink of an economic collapse. It is just a correction that is fueled by the latest drop in oil prices. In the last 3 years the Dow went from 13000 to 18000- a very big run up. We're giving some of that back. We're now just below 16000. This isn't 2007-2008. If you bought SPY every time the market dropped 10%, you'd be doing very well.
Click to expand...

This. I remember back in 10/11 you couldn't watch cable news without seeing at least three separate companies (ex: Roseland Capital with that dbag actor from the Bad News bears) admonishing you to buy gold. It never goes down was the inference. Pretty sure if you brought gold back then you're out a pretty penny. Suckers.
 
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WMT out with earnings, comps not so good and guidance cut hitting the stock premarket. How much of that is priced in? Stock has had a good run though since late last year. It was at the 200DMA as well so it was probably ripe for a pullback without a really nice earnings report.

Looks like it's been a channel since late last year and the bottom of it probably is around mid 62-low 63 area. I don't know if that'll hold, after that support looks to be at 60-61, then 58 area. 3% divy at the moment. Market near the high end of the trading range too so any possible selloff could affect it too.
 
rutgersguy1 said:
WMT out with earnings, comps not so good and guidance cut hitting the stock premarket. How much of that is priced in? Stock has had a good run though since late last year. It was at the 200DMA as well so it was probably ripe for a pullback without a really nice earnings report.

Looks like it's been a channel since late last year and the bottom of it probably is around mid 62-low 63 area. I don't know if that'll hold, after that support looks to be at 60-61, then 58 area. 3% divy at the moment. Market near the high end of the trading range too so any possible selloff could affect it too.
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Looks like the bottom of that channel held this morning. Out of the trade in the afternoon around 64.50. Might test the 200DMA again which I think will be firm resistance short term at least but decided to take the quick profit and move on.
 
rutgersguy1 said:
Looks like the bottom of that channel held this morning. Out of the trade in the afternoon around 64.50. Might test the 200DMA again which I think will be firm resistance short term at least but decided to take the quick profit and move on.
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"MIND THE GAPS" - Quick money to be made
 
Oil bottom for the time being? Those beaten up oil names might be a good pick up for a short swing trade or even UWTI (EMA crossover)

Natty still looks beaten up
 
Extra Point said:
I have been following Vanguard Wellington fund since someone mentioned it a year or so ago. When equities go up, it goes up very little. But when equities go down, it goes down very little. I looks to pay out about 2.5 percent and has over 19 billion in assets. Not a bad thing to get for conservative people in my opinion.
Click to expand...

Balanced funds are pretty cookie cutter but you're right that this is a solid one that holds blue chip stocks and investment grade debt. Can't go too far wrong with that long term.

Wellington Management Company is undoubtedly one of the best money management firms in the world, a fact attributable mostly to the extraordinary depth and strength of their fundamental research capabilities.

True fact:
When Jack Welsh was running GE he used to go to Boston twice per year to meet with the investment community there. He always held two meetings. The first was in a hotel ballroom where all the major mutual fund companies in Boston -Fidelity, Putnam, etc.-would have the opportunity to hear him speak and ask questions. The second meeting was immediately thereafter, held at Wellington Management Company's offices, where he would have a vigorous back and forth with dozens of their analysts, most of whom follow one industry for their entire career and are almost without exception considered to be among the very best in their sector. Welsh said the reason he arranged his Boston visits this way was because he got more out of meeting with Wellington than they got out of having him there. He liked that he could drill down on their analysts and get meaningful insight about his customers, suppliers, and even his own company.

If you are partial toward fundamentally driven bottom up stock picking you can't do better than Wellington.
 
I'm very glad that this thread has been resurrected.

At the end of the day all of us must do what we feel is in our own and families best self-interest.

I am not advocating against going into the stock market. For those who know what they are doing, there is amazing value in certain sectors of the economy and certain companies.

What I am saying is that just because the economy hasn't collapsed since the 1930's does not mean it will never happen again. It is a fact that had there not been a bailout in 2008, the economy would of collapsed then.

Nothing has changed since 2008 except our debt has increased exponentially. In addition, we have had zero interest rates for six years running (other than the laughable 25 bps in December); oil prices ave dived (supply versus demand) and the derivatives exposure is so high nobody realistically knows what the number is.

The current situation is unsustainable. It is a mathematical certainty. It might happen tomorrow, it might happen next month or it might not happen for three years; but it will happen.

All I'm saying is keep some cash, protection and extra food in the house. Buy some silver (especially silver) and maybe a little gold just to hedge your bets. If I am wrong, what have you lost?

I
 
mdk01 said:
Don't confuse a short squeeze with a secular bull market.
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Sure that could be true...but you can't deny that the volatility of the past couple months has been great to make some decent money...regardless of a dead cat bounce, short squeeze, bull market and/or bear market...we're seeing so many ~1% market moves in either direction

The irony of my previous post...Natty going ho hum now!
 
The irony of my previous post...Natty going ho hum now![/QUOTE]
mdk01 said:
Don't confuse a short squeeze with a secular bull market.
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Almost all the analysts with charts were predicting below 1800 with 20% correction. Now the Chartists predict a big move up. I knew I shouldn't listen to them, they change their prediction when the market pretty much is substantially up.
 
rutgersdave said:
Almost all the analysts with charts were predicting below 1800 with 20% correction. Now the Chartists predict a big move up. I knew I shouldn't listen to them, they change their prediction when the market pretty much is substantially up.
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I still use charts, patterns, trends, etc.. and it's been a great tool to help in my trading. Nothing changes for me and nothing goes straight up and nothing goes straight down. That successful retest of that low 1800 level in an oversold market was likely to create a strong rebound. Mind you I didn't expect it to be this strong and this fast but you take things as they are. I kind of think we're leaning towards overbought now but we'll see how much more it can go.

I think we've broken out of a trading range from the low 1800s to low 1900s and that's a nice sign but I'm not going to go overboard and say much beyond that. The next resistance is probably around 2000 or little more and 200 DMA is in that area as well. Oil seems to be stabilizing in this low-mid 30 area for now, financials showed some strength today so will we get back to those low 1800s again or possibly lower? I don't know but I still don't rule it out because of the recent strength. Plus if the economy is doing well (still not so sure of that) and recession is off the table then is a rate hike put back on the table and how will that affect the market? China is still out there as a possible issue as well.

Regardless, market going up or going down you usually can find some opportunities here and there. Utilities got hit today and they've been pricey for me so I've stayed away from them recently but if they show more weakness while the market rallies I'll probably sniff around the same names I have in the past. BUD is another one that got hit recently on earnings and I bought some of that, haven't sold it yet. Regardless of what the market does, IMO charts, technicals still give you a little bit of a road map of what could be a good spot to buy/sell as opposed to flying blind.
 
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