OT: Will Michigan State (14-10, 6-5) make it?

[Greene Rice FIG]

With their blow out loss to Michigan last night they have a ton of work to do. I'd think they have to win 1 of @PUR, @MD, or WISC unless they go a perfect 4-0 in the other games.

Sat Feb 11 70 Iowa W, 78-72 70 70% Home
Tue Feb 14 60 Ohio St. W, 72-67 66 65% Home
Sat Feb 18 12 Purdue L, 78-66 68 13% Away
Thu Feb 23 98 Nebraska W, 72-64 66 75% Home
Sat Feb 25 11 Wisconsin L, 65-61 61 34% Home
Wed Mar 1 66 Illinois L, 67-65 65 42% Away
Sun Mar 5 37 Maryland L, 72-66 66 29% Away
Projected record: 17-14 9-9

 

[bac2therac]

Mark it down they are not going 0-3 in those last 3 games. They will either beat Wisky at home or Illinois on the road or possibly both. I see them at worst 18-13/10-8 with strong rpi nitty gritty stuff and one win in the B10 tourney will get them in

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

19-14 10-8 1-1 BASED on the preliminary bubble you have outlined they are probably in.

18-15 9-9 1-1 NO
18-14 10-8 0-1 I think so
19-16 8-10 3-1 probably not

bottom line a 9-9 B1G an absolute must.

I would mark it down they don't go 0-3. the question will be is if they will have the 9 wins before then.

Taking care of business in the next 2 would put them back on track. However the lopsided loss can't be ignored. If you believe kenpom they are 45.5% chance of winning BOTH Iowa and Ohio State at home. If i were a betting man I'd think the odds are more like 65-70%.

 

[bac2therac]

Kenpom seems to overvalue teams like Minnesota and Illinois and penalize some others like Maryland.

 

[G- RUnit]

NCAA will have a problem and will be besides themselves with all the large B1G schools, MSU, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio State, Minny, Iowa, Northwestern, on the proverbial bubble. None are a given.

Good thing A10 and AAC are down. On other hand every school in the ACC and B12 except Pitt, Oklahoma and Texas can make a case.

No really great small schools this year. Vermont and/or Illinois State? Think St. Mary's should already be in. BYU always lurking I suppose.

Fun time of year.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Their schedule in the OOC is insanely tough with travel and who and where they played teams.....Izzo's teams always close with a flurry and last nights loss will tighten the screws up and the rotation a bit, before they get to Washington DC and the B1G tournament.

There isn't a game on that schedule they cannot win, which also includes at Purdue and at Maryland....I see them going 6-1 down the stretch, Maryland will have little incentive in that finale at home and Michigan State has better players than Maryland.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Their schedule in the OOC is insanely tough with travel and who and where they played teams.....Izzo's teams always close with a flurry and last nights loss will tighten the screws up and the rotation a bit, before they get to Washington DC and the B1G tournament.

There isn't a game on that schedule they cannot win, which also includes at Purdue and at Maryland....I see them going 6-1 down the stretch, Maryland will have little incentive in that finale at home and Michigan State has better players than Maryland.

His guards have a flat head screw and Izzo has a Phillips head screw driver. I agree with your premise that there isn't a game they can't win, but the opposite is also true. Izzo could already be looking ahead to the future. If Izzo doesn't think he has the horses to make a Final 4 run he may play the season out with an eye to the future.

 

[TDIrish27]

Maryland is fair------the record is a product of a mediocre schedule.

They're 1 scorer short.

 

[Mr_Twister]

Sagarin's has Michigan State ranked #45 above Rhode Island and Seton Hall.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Sagarin's has Michigan State ranked #45 above Rhode Island and Seton Hall.

does that include last night?

 

[RU MAN]

Sagarin's has Michigan State ranked #45 above Rhode Island and Seton Hall.

And Kenpom has Michigan St. at 57 and Seton Hall at 50. The bottom line is because of their reputation coupled with their very difficult schedule, if they win some of those games mentioned above and win a B1G tourney game, they're probably in as a 9 or 10 seed.

 

[rubaseball78]

I think they need to win out to make it although selection committee may give them bonus points for their history. If they lose one or two, then they need to make it to the finals of the Big10 tourney to get in.

 

[ruman]

They will make it. Blue blood

 

[bac2therac]

there arent alot of small conference schools and midmajors that are going to steal bids. Its all about power conferences, MSU on the bubble will make it easily....they have advantages over several of the other Big 10 bubbles...even schools like Iowa and Illinois have shots at making it

 

[koko2315]

They will make it. Blue blood

tend to agree...as long as they are close to a bubble spot, they will be an 11/12 seed

 

[colbert17]

there arent alot of small conference schools and midmajors that are going to steal bids. Its all about power conferences, MSU on the bubble will make it easily....they have advantages over several of the other Big 10 bubbles...even schools like Iowa and Illinois have shots at making it

Wat about Monmouth? If they win 5 of 6 remainig games and lose in their tourney final and are lets say 27-7 do they get a bid??
Tourney people love Izzo MSU gets in and probably wins one or maybe two tourney games barring any total collapse.

 

[G- RUnit]

The odd/ironic thing is that it will be the Blue Bloods competing against each other for the bubble. MSU v Michigan v Iowa v Indiana! B1G v ACC v B12. Curious if Pac 12 goes from 4 to 6 bids.

 

[bac2therac]

Wat about Monmouth? If they win 5 of 6 remainig games and lose in their tourney final and are lets say 27-7 do they get a bid??
Tourney people love Izzo MSU gets in and probably wins one or maybe two tourney games barring any total collapse.

Monmouth is in the same boat as last year except this year they do not have the quality wins over schools like UCLA and USC and I think one other.....their wins this year are just at Memphis and Princeton...those are their only top 100 wins...yes they scheduled strong with losses to UNC, So Carolina and Syracuse but lost them all..their SOS of 166 isnt all that hot. They have bad losses in league to Rider and St Peters and 15 of their wins are to plus 150 rpi schools. I think they better just win the conference tourney...they absolutely can not afford a loss before the conference tourney. If they can run the table and get to the conference final and if they lose there they would be 28-6 where they would have a shot but if they have 7 losses forget it, if they didnt get in last year this year will be tough as well

 

[bac2therac]

tend to agree...as long as they are close to a bubble spot, they will be an 11/12 seed

right now they are in the 8/9 seed according to Lunardi...they are 3-5 vs top 50 and 7-8 vs top 100..those are pretty strong numbers right now

similarly Indiana which is an 11 seed right now last 4 in....3-6 vs top 50 and 6-8 vs top 100

Illinois has better rpi stuff than their awful Big 10 mark....2-7 vs top 50 isnt all that hot but 7-11 vs top 100 is pretty solid and note they have no loss to any team outside the top 100. They have wins over VCU and at Northwestern. The SOS is an outstanding 11 but they need to pick up that road mark of 1-5/4-7 neutral. Longshot but if they can get some quality wins down the stretch they will float toward the bubble....Their last 6 are not all that difficult...they get PSU/Northwestern/Mich State at home, suppose they win them all...then they have Nebby, RU, and Iowa on the road...those are worldbeaters...could they win 2 of 3...if they go 4-2/5-1 they will be in the running for a bid.