Official How Much Will We Improve Prediction Thread (Off and Def)

[winfield102]

It looks like we are currently 16th in the Big ten for OE. If we get to #60, we'll be 12th in the Big ten on offensive efficiency (if no one else moves up or down). That doesn't seem very good.

We are also 16th for DE. #80 would only move us to 15th. Not a recipe for success.

Interested in coming back after the regular season to see where we landed.

 

[BillyC80]

Right now we are ranked 106th by bart in adjusted offensive efficiency and 111th in defensive efficiency.

WHAT WILL THOSE NUMBERS BE AT THE END OF THE YEAR?

Brief education....those numbers just look at points scored and points given up divided by amount of possessions and then adjusted for strength of opponent. Below is our adjusted numbers each game...move the decimal point over two spots to your left to get adjusted points per possession

		POSS	OFF	DEF
Wagner	W, 75-52	69	105.3	90.6
Saint Peter's	W, 75-65	65	111.1	112.3
Monmouth	W, 98-81	70	132.1	122
Merrimack	W, 74-63	68	112.9	98.4
Kennesaw St.	L, 79-77	79	94.6	104.3
Notre Dame	W, 85-84 OT	73	116	107.6
Alabama	L, 95-90	79	126.3	100.2
Texas A&M	L, 81-77	77	114.4	95.4
Ohio St.	L, 80-66	66	112.4	109.3
Penn St.	W, 80-76	73	118.5	95.8
Seton Hall	W, 66-63	65	102.1	107
Princeton	L, 83-82	74	110.3	109.5
Columbia	W, 91-64	72	114.8	92
Indiana	L, 84-74	75	108.6	103.2
Wisconsin	L, 75-63	70	94.8	94.3
Purdue	L, 68-50	63	86.1	93.2

T-Page for Rutgers - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

Thanks for posting this. Trying to understand how you predict outcomes based on these numbers.

For example versus Alabama, Adjusted O/D we were 126/100 while Alabama was 124/111, both in 79 possessions. Yet we lost by 5 points. Is it the “Adjusted” part that accounts for the difference?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Thanks for posting this. Trying to understand how you predict outcomes based on these numbers.

For example versus Alabama, Adjusted O/D we were 126/100 while Alabama was 124/111, both in 79 possessions. Yet we lost by 5 points. Is it the “Adjusted” part that accounts for the difference?

Yes. Alabama played a bad team and we played a good team.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

RU 75 points on 65 possessions. Raw 1.146 Adj 1.269 (elite)
RU 68 points allowed on 65 possessions Raw 1.039 ADj 1.037 (below average)

Why? UCLa is 100th ranked on O but 8th on D

Updated for RU
Offense 95th
Defense 109th

 

[bac2therac]

RU 75 points on 65 possessions. Raw 1.146 Adj 1.269 (elite)
RU 68 points allowed on 65 possessions Raw 1.039 ADj 1.037 (below average)

Why? UCLa is 100th ranked on O but 8th on D

Updated for RU
Offense 95th
Defense 109th

I thought it was our best consistent from start to finish defensive performance of the year

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I thought it was our best consistent from start to finish defensive performance of the year

1st 6 minutes we gave up 14 points and Ace had a couple of breakdowns. Last 34 minutes gave up 54 and Ace was good and very active off the ball. Also go great minutes out of our 5. No PJ and Derkack didn't hurt. Derkack has killed us defensively this year.

 

[bac2therac]

1st 6 minutes we gave up 14 points and Ace had a couple of breakdowns. Last 34 minutes gave up 54 and Ace was good and very active off the ball. Also go great minutes out of our 5. No PJ and Derkack didn't hurt. Derkack has killed us defensively this year.

I think EO should have started given their size. Not a big deal as both contributed and Lathan hauled down 9 boards eventually

 

[goru7]

1st 6 minutes we gave up 14 points and Ace had a couple of breakdowns. Last 34 minutes gave up 54 and Ace was good and very active off the ball. Also go great minutes out of our 5. No PJ and Derkack didn't hurt. Derkack has killed us defensively this year.

What is Mr. Defense’s assessment of ACE ‘s defense. ? Are you still taking every chance to knock him. ? Open your eyes.

 

[RUJMM78]

I thought it was our best consistent from start to finish defensive performance of the year

The Columbia game was a good defensive effort holding them to 64 points.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

What is Mr. Defense’s assessment of ACE ‘s defense. ? Are you still taking every chance to knock him. ? Open your eyes.

Watch the 1st 6 minutes of the game and tell me how UCLA scored their baskets and come back to me. Actually don't bother coming back to me. Instead of disagreeing with people you are nasty with anyone that disagrees. I have put you on ignore because you don't deserve your posts being read.

 

[goru7]

Watch the 1st 6 minutes of the game and tell me how UCLA scored their baskets and come back to me. Actually don't bother coming back to me. Instead of disagreeing with people you are nasty with anyone that disagrees. I have put you on ignore because you don't deserve your posts being read.

You are a tool. Mr. Contrarian. Trying real hard to prove ACE Bailey is some liability. Get over yourself. Ignore will be a pleasure for me so I don’t have to deal with your ridiculous takes on our players and no less our NBA players