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Path to the tourney, yes, it’s realistic

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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy

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As we get ready for the B1G slate to start, lets map out the realistic road to the tourney. Assuming we enter conference play at 10-3, my guess is we’d have to go 11-9 in conference play to dance. Is it realistic? I think so. Kenpom has us going 8-12 in conference play so is it really that unfathomable that we win 3 more games? I think not. So heres my path.
@mich st- L q1
Wisconsin- W q2

@Nebraska- W q2
PSU- W q1
@ Illinois- L q1
Indiana- W q2
Minny- W q2
@Iowa- L q1
Nebraska- W q3
Purdue- W q1
Michigan @Garden- L q1
@Maryland- L q1
Northwestern- W q3
@ ohio state- L q1
Illinois- W q2
Michigan- L q1
@Wisconsin- W q1
@PSU- L q1
Maryland- W q1
@Purdue- L q1

Q1 4-9 (could be 5-9 if SHU gets into top 30 by seasons end)
Q2 6-0

i think if we do this we should finish about 6th in the big ten. We’d get a first round bye in the big ten tourney then play the winner of the 11-14 matchup. Win that game and I think you seal a bid to the tourney, lose that game and its dicey.

The path is certainly there and whats interesting is the data suggests through kenpom that by February 15th we should hit the 8 win mark in conference play with still 5 B1G games to go. Now those 5 remaining games are as tough a 5 game slate youll see in america but for the first time in a long time, the path to the tourney lies before us and is realistic. Ill wait for @Greene Rice FIG to chime in with some negativity now.
 
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So the path includes us beating Indiana, Purdue, Maryland and Penn State?

I think you have a better chance getting kicked out of your seats again then we have f winning more than one of those games
 
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Woody522 said:
So the path includes us beating Indiana, Purdue, Maryland and Penn State?

I think you have a better chance getting kicked out of your seats again then we have f winning more than one of those games
Click to expand...
Kenpom predicts us to beat indiana and psu at home. Did you not watch maryland get whacked by a shu team without powell and mamu this past week? My path is beating them at home and losing to them on the road. And kenpom once again, a completely objective analytic driven site predicts us to lose by 1 point to purdue at home, how is it that unfathomable that we beat them at home?
 
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Bart says we have a 55% chance of making the tournament.

Is that right? I doubt it. Bart seems to have us the highest of any of the ratings. But that tells me it's definitely not unrealistic.

FWIW, I think 11-9 + 1-1 is the bar.
 
Woody522 said:
So the path includes us beating Indiana, Purdue, Maryland and Penn State?

I think you have a better chance getting kicked out of your seats again then we have f winning more than one of those games
Click to expand...

Please. We play 7 games against those teams and we prob go like 3-4 on average.
 
Number one, we need to take care of business at home. Every WTF? kind of game equals one more road game we need to win and that probably won't happen much.

With that said, I don't think Kyk's path is that ridiculous if we continue to play well. I don't expect it, but it IS possible.

I should have posted this in the RU xmas gift thread, but my gift this year was a half hour long RU hoops conversation with my brother in law who's a St. Joe's fan. He was very excited to hear we were doing well, he was shocked to see our NET ranking so high and we spent 30 minutes breaking down the schedule, looking for wins and to see how possible it was to dance. He went as far as to look at what the 1st round destinations were but I told him that was way too much for me to even think about. I've been married 12 years and this is the first time I ever had this type of convo with him where I felt like I wasn't just having blind optimism and was just talking out my a$$. A truly great Xmas gift!
 
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I’ll focus more on players as our best path to NCAA play. Specifically three points:
1. Young cutting down on turnovers and becoming an actual offensive threat.
2. Johnson keeping out of foul trouble and flirting with double-doubles on a nightly basis.
3. Harper breaking out and becoming the scorer he’s teased in the past.
If those three things happen I’m confident we will be in. I’m pretty confident about 2. Three is certainly possible. 1....I dunno.
 
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RUSCFORMERLYRULOU said:
I’ll focus more on players as our best path to NCAA play. Specifically three points:
1. Young cutting down on turnovers and becoming an actual offensive threat.
2. Johnson keeping out of foul trouble and flirting with double-doubles on a nightly basis.
3. Harper breaking out and becoming the scorer he’s teased in the past.
If those three things happen I’m confident we will be in. I’m pretty confident about 2. Three is certainly possible. 1....I dunno.
Click to expand...
6 players should eat up 80% of our minutes. Geo, Akwasi, Harper, Montez, Myles, Caleb.

the remaining 20% should be sprinkled between Carter, young and mulcahy. Id like to see our minutes breakdown something like this.

geo- 30
Akwasi- 30
Harper- 30
Montez- 23
Caleb- 23
Myles- 27

Shaq C- 10
Mulcahy- 14
Young- 10
Duke- 3
 
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kyk1827 said:
As we get ready for the B1G slate to start, lets map out the realistic road to the tourney. Assuming we enter conference play at 10-3, my guess is we’d have to go 11-9 in conference play to dance. Is it realistic? I think so. Kenpom has us going 8-12 in conference play so is it really that unfathomable that we win 3 more games? I think not. So heres my path.
@mich st- L q1
Wisconsin- W q2

@Nebraska- W q2
PSU- W q1
@ Illinois- L q1
Indiana- W q2
Minny- W q2
@Iowa- L q1
Nebraska- W q3
Purdue- W q1
Michigan @Garden- L q1
@Maryland- L q1
Northwestern- W q3
@ ohio state- L q1
Illinois- W q2
Michigan- L q1
@Wisconsin- W q1
@PSU- L q1
Maryland- W q1
@Purdue- L q1

Q1 4-9 (could be 5-9 if SHU gets into top 30 by seasons end)
Q2 6-0

i think if we do this we should finish about 6th in the big ten. We’d get a first round bye in the big ten tourney then play the winner of the 11-14 matchup. Win that game and I think you seal a bid to the tourney, lose that game and its dicey.

The path is certainly there and whats interesting is the data suggests through kenpom that by February 15th we should hit the 8 win mark in conference play with still 5 B1G games to go. Now those 5 remaining games are as tough a 5 game slate youll see in america but for the first time in a long time, the path to the tourney lies before us and is realistic. Ill wait for @Greene Rice FIG to chime in with some negativity now.
Click to expand...
Kyk, I agree with most of your projections, except I think we beat Michigan at least once. I think Nebraska will be a huge tell for our season — a team we should beat at home or on a neutral court, but if we find a way to get that W on the road, then I feel our path is clear, and our NCAA destiny is totally in our hands.

No doubt we can beat anyone at home. Coming out strong and fast in our last 3 games, literally annihilating good teams in the first few minutes is something we haven’t seen here in quite a while, if ever. Our defense is legit but we have to unleash the Kraken on the road. Do that against Nebraska and I like our chances.
 
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kyk1827 said:
6 players should eat up 80% of our minutes. Geo, Akwasi, Harper, Montez, Myles, Caleb.

the remaining 20% should be sprinkled between Carter, young and mulcahy. Id like to see our minutes breakdown something like this.

geo- 30
Akwasi- 30
Harper- 30
Montez- 23
Caleb- 23
Myles- 27

Shaq C- 10
Mulcahy- 14
Young- 10
Duke- 3
Click to expand...
What I’m saying though is that if Young steps it up - the way people say he does in practice - he will get more minutes and make us better. Your minutes assessment is spot on based on the evidence thus far.
 
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This path has us winning every single conference game at home ex Michigan. So the path said simply is be dominant at home and steal 2 wins on the road in conference play.
 
fluoxetine said:
Bart says we have a 55% chance of making the tournament.

Is that right? I doubt it. Bart seems to have us the highest of any of the ratings. But that tells me it's definitely not unrealistic.

FWIW, I think 11-9 + 1-1 is the bar.
Click to expand...

I was thinking 10-10 +1-1 but what do I know. It just seems to me so much depends on what happens around the country during conference tourney time.
 
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After wandering in the desert for 27 years, I won't look that far ahead. Let's see where we are in a month. I think there is a good chance of a strong January but I'm not looking past Nebraska right now. It's safe to look past Caldwell. Every other game, we need to come in hungry and ready to play.
 
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I think we all are somewhere between "how good is this team?" and "same old Rutgers".
Hard to be too optimistic when you consider our history.
If we are going to finally get to the dance, we have to show a lot of things are a consistent factor. 3pt. shooting and foul shots have to be better.
Pike has to set the starting lineup and limit the minutes of those who have more negatives than positives.
I don't see us blowing teams off the court with offense, defense will ultimately decide our fate.
 
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Having a deeper team that lessens the effect of fatigue and injury prevents me from stamping this thread as a Kiss of Death thread. If we can find ways to play effectively and with a good basketball IQ and have nights where we shoot the ball decently on the road in the Big Ten, we have something.
 
The path if you have 11 wins is fine, but a handful have to be confident wins, where they look like Wisconsin at The RAC. A bunch of squeakers will not help.

The road wins?? I think you have to find 2 and the 8 losses left, you have to avoid more than 4 of them become out of hand.

The analysis is not wins and losses, it's how competitive does the team look most nights.

That means it may take this half a season or full season to learn how to play 36 to 38 quality minutes on the road.....you have to "break trends", that Vegas has in place.

So if you're a pick or small favorite at Nebraska, you have to handle them by 2 possessions more than the trend line or Vegas line. If not vs Nebraska, then if RU is getting 6 points from Illinois, make that game a 2-3 point game...

At RAC, if you are a 2 to 2.5 point favorite, you have to win like Wisconsin in some of those games.

I know it was not watched closely but Penn State broke trendlines last year in the same way, despite starting 0-9 in the B1G.....took Purdue to OT at home, close loss here and there and eventually, they turned some games they were projected to lose by 8 to 10, into losses by 2 or 3.

When Penn State eventually went from 0-9 to 7-13, it included a pick em at the RAC, which was even baffling to me, but Vegas had game projections correct.

RU has to break trends. That means fixing Jacob Young, building on Mulcahy off the bench...getting more consistent play from the starters.

This is still a year ahead of schedule for my calculations, but Yeboah and Caleb, could break that trend to lift this roster to bubble status. If that happens and we fix Young and Mulcahy stays steady, and Yeboah/Caleb stay on track, those trends could speed up RU and 11-9 is in reach.
 
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Just enjoy the wins one at a time. This league is too hard to make any assumptions. We haven't finished .500 in years. I'm optimistic but we have a ton of very hard games and need extreme fan support in everyone of them.
 
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The road wins will be very hard to come by. Even a depleted Nebraska squad won their home game against a much better Purdue team by 14 points! I agree with those who say we'll learn a lot about RU's chances when they face the Huskers on the road on Jan. 3
 
I think it's a little too early to look at post season. If we beat Nebraska and PSU in the next couple of weeks, which will be incredibly tough, then there is a post season path. If we lose any one of those two games then there are too many games where we are a big underdog that we have to win.
 
Let's just get past the road game at Nebraska. We should beat them but road conference games are not easy. Let's see if we start growing up a little bit. If we beat them and PSU then I'm jumping in the "Tournament Train"!
 
cubuffsdoug said:
We have fans who doubt our team is capable of doing better, why bother being a fan?
Click to expand...

Silly. Fans WANT their team to win; they don't have to expect their team to win. Besides, sometimes (usually) it's nice to be pleasantly surprised rather than bitterly disappointed. Not really hard to fathom.
 
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Every remaining B1G game is both winnable and loseable. All paths are open—as of Dec26, 2019.
 
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With every win, the Path becomes more clear. Just need to keep winning one game a time. In reality, we must take care of home court and steal a few on the road.
 
BoroKnight said:
Silly. Fans WANT their team to win; they don't have to expect their team to win. Besides, sometimes (usually) it's nice to be pleasantly surprised rather than bitterly disappointed. Not really hard to fathom.
Click to expand...
They are the first to point out Rutgers losing and the last to give credit when they win.

You have Rutgers fans who are ALWAYS going against the grain just because. Rutgers could be 25-0 and you'll still have the same few fans saying this team is not making the tournament.

Rutgers can never show improvement in their eyes because they have conditioned themselves to think the worst. I'm willing to bet the same naysayers still can't wrap their minds around the win over Seton Hall.
 
cubuffsdoug said:
They are the first to point out Rutgers losing and the last to give credit when they win.

You have Rutgers fans who are ALWAYS going against the grain just because. Rutgers could be 25-0 and you'll still have the same few fans saying this team is not making the tournament.

Rutgers can never show improvement in their eyes because they have conditioned themselves to think the worst. I'm willing to bet the same naysayers still can't wrap their minds around the win over Seton Hall.
Click to expand...
Hey I know I still can’t!
 
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kyk1827 said:
As we get ready for the B1G slate to start, lets map out the realistic road to the tourney. Assuming we enter conference play at 10-3, my guess is we’d have to go 11-9 in conference play to dance. Is it realistic? I think so. Kenpom has us going 8-12 in conference play so is it really that unfathomable that we win 3 more games? I think not. So heres my path.
Click to expand...

While KenPom is probably better than T-rank at predicting future W/L records, T-rank is a far more fun website to play around with and more customizable.

T-rank currently pegs Rutgers for finishing 10-10 in the conference (a bit more ambitious than KenPom) and gives Rutgers an 18% chance of winning 11 games, 14% of 12 games, 8% of 13 games, and combined about 4% chance of winning 14+ which works out to around 44% chance of 11+ wins. If you preferred the KenPom rankings you'd have to adjust downward a smidge (current KenPom projected 9-11).
 
kyk1827 said:
As we get ready for the B1G slate to start, lets map out the realistic road to the tourney. Assuming we enter conference play at 10-3, my guess is we’d have to go 11-9 in conference play to dance. Is it realistic? I think so. Kenpom has us going 8-12 in conference play so is it really that unfathomable that we win 3 more games? I think not. So heres my path.
@mich st- L q1
Wisconsin- W q2

@Nebraska- W q2
PSU- W q1
@ Illinois- L q1
Indiana- W q2
Minny- W q2
@Iowa- L q1
Nebraska- W q3
Purdue- W q1
Michigan @Garden- L q1
@Maryland- L q1
Northwestern- W q3
@ ohio state- L q1
Illinois- W q2
Michigan- L q1
@Wisconsin- W q1
@PSU- L q1
Maryland- W q1
@Purdue- L q1

Q1 4-9 (could be 5-9 if SHU gets into top 30 by seasons end)
Q2 6-0

i think if we do this we should finish about 6th in the big ten. We’d get a first round bye in the big ten tourney then play the winner of the 11-14 matchup. Win that game and I think you seal a bid to the tourney, lose that game and its dicey.

The path is certainly there and whats interesting is the data suggests through kenpom that by February 15th we should hit the 8 win mark in conference play with still 5 B1G games to go. Now those 5 remaining games are as tough a 5 game slate youll see in america but for the first time in a long time, the path to the tourney lies before us and is realistic. Ill wait for @Greene Rice FIG to chime in with some negativity now.
Click to expand...

I don’t think we win the game @Wisc, but I agree that your other projections are reasonable
 
cubuffsdoug said:
They are the first to point out Rutgers losing and the last to give credit when they win.

You have Rutgers fans who are ALWAYS going against the grain just because. Rutgers could be 25-0 and you'll still have the same few fans saying this team is not making the tournament.

Rutgers can never show improvement in their eyes because they have conditioned themselves to think the worst. I'm willing to bet the same naysayers still can't wrap their minds around the win over Seton Hall.
Click to expand...
That's because Seton Hall sucks and their HC faked an injury for their star player to save face because he's a slimy POS. It's very easy to understand..they just don't want to.

I wish I could say it was a good game, but Caldwell will give us a tougher time than shu did.
 
kyk1827 said:
Gotta win 3 of next 5
Click to expand...
We are now on a 5 game winning streak, with wins over Wisconsin and Seton Hall , who have not lost since they played us, and now a road conference domination at a place we have never won before. I am looking at a 10 game winning streak as the Penn State home game will be harder than the Illinois and Iowa road games. But we have to protect the RAC this year and try to go undefeated. It starts Tuesday night . The road to February 1 is attainable and winnable even without Geo and I cannot believe I just typed that line .
 
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Woody522 said:
So the path includes us beating Indiana, Purdue, Maryland and Penn State?

I think you have a better chance getting kicked out of your seats again then we have f winning more than one of those games
Click to expand...
Start watching a few more games. Defense travels. Rutgers is playing tough D and outworking others. Plus, Rutgers has been efficient on offense. Something that has been missing for a long time.

If you watched Purdue, Maryland, and PSU you'll see they rely on offensive skills to carry them more than defense. If Purdue played just a little defense, they don't lose to Nebraska. Maryland and PSU issue is being consistent. There are times they seem to lack interest in the game based on who they are playing. Rutgers has a chance against these teams because of the matchup, defense, and outworking people.

Btw, we know you are not a Rutgers fan. We know based on prior posts and you can take your SH friend too who co-signed your post with likes.
 
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