Perspective vs. Last Season - Just Wins/Losses and Margins

[jellyman]

While there is so much more one can look at to evaluate the progress this season versus last season, I thought I would look at some of the easy stuff: Wins. losses and margins of losses.

I do want to start with my very strong belief that Pikiell and his staff are very much responsible for these improvements - and the players for buying in. BUT ... I also want to make it clear that last year's team, regardless of whatever coaching deficiencies many of us might want to highlight, was severely handicapped due to massive injuries. For too-large stretches RU had just 6 schilarship, or maybe 7 scholarship players even available to play ... and at times had to start and/or play Laurent at CENTER, and either Grier or Williams at PF ... and sometimes Goode at WF (the fact that RU had to play Goode at all says a lot).

That said, here are some comparisons, THIS season, the 2016-2017 season, listed first, followed by LAST season, the 2015-2016 season - with at least 1 game left in this season:

Overall Wins: 14, vs 7

Losses: 17, vs 25

Big Ten Wins: 3, vs 1

Games lost by 10 or more points: 10, vs 20

Games lost by MORE than 20 points (i.e. 21 or more points): 1, vs 12 (this season, RU did lose 3 games by exactly 20 points).

Games lost by 29 or more points: 0, vs 7 (this season, RU did lose ONE game by 28 points, so somewhat arbitrary).

Games lost by 30 or more points: 0, vs 5

Games in which RU gave up 100 or more points: 0, vs 2

Games in which RU gave up 90 or more points: 1, vs 8

Games in which RU gave up 80 or more points: 2, vs 16

Games in which RU gave up 70 or more points: 10, vs, 23

That is improvement: Both from having a deeper roster (partly the coaching staff adding players, and partly being more healthy), and from instilling a different attitude of effort, rebounding and defense.

 

[shields]

Good job, still have nightmares of Goode trying to guard Shields from Nebraska last year.

 

[ScarletDave]

Wow .. most shocking stat to me is games lost by more than 20 points ... 1 this year vs 12 !! Last year ... my gosh did I really sit through 12 games watching RU get demolished last year ... how the heck did any of these guys stay .. and how the heck have we improved that much this year to hanging with the big dogs of the league ... 11-1 start to the season .. truly amazing.

 

[RJM_Go_RU]

We need to see similar improvement in football. Eliminate lopsided losses. Stay competitive. Make every opponent fight for a win. Be the team no one wants to play.

 

[jtung230]

Wow .. most shocking stat to me is games lost by more than 20 points ... 1 this year vs 12 !! Last year ... my gosh did I really sit through 12 games watching RU get demolished last year ... how the heck did any of these guys stay .. and how the heck have we improved that much this year to hanging with the big dogs of the league ... 11-1 start to the season .. truly amazing.

If you actually sat through those games you would know the answers to your own questions.

 

[RUJMM78]

Excellent analysis in comparing the last two seasons.The next step is determining what improvement is required for next season and what players will show significant improvement to make 3 league wins go to 6 wins?

I start with a basis of 62 points in league games this season minus 8 points with Gettys graduation giving 54 points as the foundation for next year .Nobody knows right now how recruits will perform or what players might transfer.My target number for next year is 67 points per league game which means 5 more than this season but 13 more minus Gettys.To achieve those numbers Sanders and Johnson have to be more consistent scorers and help must come from the small forward position and a replacement for Gettys.There are lots of ifs but there also is the potential for scoring more points especially by recruiting a shooter at the small forward position or Thiam shows major improvement.

It will be a exciting off season with construction of the practice facility commencing and following summer recruiting .Coach Pikiell has the program heading in the right direction.Future recruiting will determine how fast it happens.

 

[mikefla]

To me the losses by 20 says it all... 12 last year...seemed like more LOL

By my count we werent OUT of many games....in fact we went down to the wire on 5 losses
Mich, NW, OSU, Wisc, Iowa...we were IN all of those fairly close losses

 

[koleszar]

Excellent analysis in comparing the last two seasons.The next step is determining what improvement is required for next season and what players will show significant improvement to make 3 league wins go to 6 wins?

I start with a basis of 62 points in league games this season minus 8 points with Gettys graduation giving 54 points as the foundation for next year .Nobody knows right now how recruits will perform or what players might transfer.My target number for next year is 67 points per league game which means 5 more than this season but 13 more minus Gettys.To achieve those numbers Sanders and Johnson have to be more consistent scorers and help must come from the small forward position and a replacement for Gettys.There are lots of ifs but there also is the potential for scoring more points especially by recruiting a shooter at the small forward position or Thiam shows major improvement.

It will be a exciting off season with construction of the practice facility commencing and following summer recruiting .Coach Pikiell has the program heading in the right direction.Future recruiting will determine how fast it happens.

If we get just average free throw shooting next year that should equate to roughly 6 of those points. And that's just average. Improved free throw shooting this year probably equates to an extra 2 B1G wins. The kids really need to work on this basic skill and we'll see improvement next year. It truly was one of our Achilles heels this year.

 

[knight82]

Another intangible difference from last year is the fact that we as fans went into most games with hope. It wasn't inconceivable that this could be the night they knock off one of the top teams, or win a road game. Last year, between the decimated roster and the poor coaching, it was just a feeling of hopelessness.

 

[knights1212]

Just imagine if we had just won two of those five close losses we would have a over .500 record at 16-15. Woulda, coulda, shoulda.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

the real analysis is why is our offensive efficiency so bad and what can we do to improve.

If our offensive numbers equaled our defensive numbers we'd be a 18-13 team watching college basketball at all hours of the night rooting for bubble teams to lose also knowing we'd need to make it to at least the semifinals of our own tournament

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

If we played to a 1.05 in B1G play like 69th ranked Michigan State we would have flipped 7 B1G games to wins.

20-11 10-8

 

[nirrad]

Good points. I'm just happy that we doubled our win total. If RU would've hit some crucial free throws, it's possible that they would be playing in the NIT.

 

[RU MAN]

While there is so much more one can look at to evaluate the progress this season versus last season, I thought I would look at some of the easy stuff: Wins. losses and margins of losses.

I do want to start with my very strong belief that Pikiell and his staff are very much responsible for these improvements - and the players for buying in. BUT ... I also want to make it clear that last year's team, regardless of whatever coaching deficiencies many of us might want to highlight, was severely handicapped due to massive injuries. For too-large stretches RU had just 6 schilarship, or maybe 7 scholarship players even available to play ... and at times had to start and/or play Laurent at CENTER, and either Grier or Williams at PF ... and sometimes Goode at WF (the fact that RU had to play Goode at all says a lot).

That said, here are some comparisons, THIS season, the 2016-2017 season, listed first, followed by LAST season, the 2015-2016 season - with at least 1 game left in this season:

Overall Wins: 14, vs 7

Losses: 17, vs 25

Big Ten Wins: 3, vs 1

Games lost by 10 or more points: 10, vs 20

Games lost by MORE than 20 points (i.e. 21 or more points): 1, vs 12 (this season, RU did lose 3 games by exactly 20 points).

Games lost by 29 or more points: 0, vs 7 (this season, RU did lose ONE game by 28 points, so somewhat arbitrary).

Games lost by 30 or more points: 0, vs 5

Games in which RU gave up 100 or more points: 0, vs 2

Games in which RU gave up 90 or more points: 1, vs 8

Games in which RU gave up 80 or more points: 2, vs 16

Games in which RU gave up 70 or more points: 10, vs, 23

That is improvement: Both from having a deeper roster (partly the coaching staff adding players, and partly being more healthy), and from instilling a different attitude of effort, rebounding and defense.

Jelly, thanks for the stats. The biggest improvement I saw was was losing by 20 or more points (1) versus last year (12). What is also important to note, is how many losses this year by ten points or less, which was 7 games. Twelve points or less was 10 games. The previous year we lost by 10 points or less five times. But of those five times two were devastating losses to St. Johns and Monmouth. We didn't have those this year. We won every game we were supposed to win in non-conference play.

Another perspective: This year we were beating SHU for three quarters of that game before falling to them by 12 at the PRU. Last year they beat us by 29 in our house.

I realize that we had a ton of injuries last year, but anyone can see we have improved immensely especially with how we played in the B1G this year. We were in 10 games this year to the end where we lost by 4 or less possessions. I see this as HUGE IMPROVEMENTS. Kudos to Pikiell, staff and the kids who bought into his system and really played hard for him.

Lastly, a big thank you for CJ for creating stability in the low post and scoring contributions. I wish he was returning for one more year with those returning next year.

 

[ScarletRunner]

Great analysis Jelly.

I'll echo other folks saying that the 20-point loss numbers say it all. But above all, think how frequently we were "in" games this year... Maybe even some of the 10+ point losses that got away from us towards the end. Last year in B1G play you almost always got a sense early on that we simply had no chance.

 

[rufeelinit]

We still need to get much better to be a 500 team in this conference. Remember this was a down year for the conference overall so expect better competition next year. It will be interesting to see what type of non conference schedule we play.

 

[SkilletHead2]

Funny thing in thinking about this. Shooting. After game two, I questioned the free throw shooting and was assured it was just game two and not to worry about it.

So here's the question. Can the guys who are coming back improve? Look at the astounding improvement we had in rebounding this year over last. And the improvement in defense. Can we improve in shooting by really working hard on it? Can these guys become better?

My guess is that if there is a way to do this, Pikiell will find it. But what is the evidence for individual players improving their shots? Can it occur with good coaching and a lot of hard work?

 

[bac2therac]

this year was the first step...being competitive...hopefully the next two years the leap to winning games starts to take place but its going to be all about recruiting recruiting recruiting as we start to lose our current players after next year

 

[higgins3]

Just imagine if we had just won two of those five close laws we would have a over .500 record at 16-15. Woulda, coulda, shoulda.

Next year,Art. It will be the best year in five years.

 

[higgins3]

Funny thing in thinking about this. Shooting. After game two, I questioned the free throw shooting and was assured it was just game two and not to worry about it.

So here's the question. Can the guys who are coming back improve? Look at the astounding improvement we had in rebounding this year over last. And the improvement in defense. Can we improve in shooting by really working hard on it? Can these guys become better?

My guess is that if there is a way to do this, Pikiell will find it. But what is the evidence for individual players improving their shots? Can it occur with good coaching and a lot of hard work?

Yes. Definitely.

A lot of our shooting woes come from the players releases being too low, and passes not being made, or done quickly enough to allow them the right time, and the right shot.

 

[higgins3]

Funny thing in thinking about this. Shooting. After game two, I questioned the free throw shooting and was assured it was just game two and not to worry about it.

So here's the question. Can the guys who are coming back improve? Look at the astounding improvement we had in rebounding this year over last. And the improvement in defense. Can we improve in shooting by really working hard on it? Can these guys become better?

My guess is that if there is a way to do this, Pikiell will find it. But what is the evidence for individual players improving their shots? Can it occur with good coaching and a lot of hard work?

In general, it was not a good shooting team this year. Add in Baker, and you have a guy that will have 13-20 minutes in OOC play, and 9-14 minutes in conference play. Right shooting pocket.

I think you see more improvement from freshman to sophmore year than from junior to senior.

The best part is,the team has a lot of high character kids. Kids who have the right spirit now, and want to improve. That has not always been the case. Next year will be very interesting.

 

[bowlgoal]

Thanks for that detailed analysis. After the start to our season I was confident that we would have made the NIT. But reality hit quickly as it's easy to forget how difficult it is to win league games. The stats you gave speak for themselves as some of these loses could have been wins but we were always playing better talent than we have. Corey is a special player but most of these teams have a few guys who are at his level and that's why they beat us.

One glaring example was what I remember seeing in the blowout losses vs Iowa and Maryland and this is what happens. You had a guy driving to the hoop in open space but an equally talented guy slashing to the hoop without the ball. So two players at a Corey sanders level finding matchups where they were faster, got around the screens and you didn't know if the guy driving was going to shoot or dish the ball off and in most cases he dished to a wide open guy for and easy dunk or layup or found a third shooter wide open beyond the arc. These were plays that seemed to be run to perfection and we couldn't defend because everything moved at a step faster with precision.

We played defense at a frantic pace this year and never gave up and our guys we in shape. That's when you lose by a reasonable margin and don't get embarrassed and exactly what the Indiana coach said about Pikiell when he was hired. He said it was a great hire because he's played Steve Pikiell teams and his kids are prepared and play hard. And he's right. And now we've seen that he prepare a game plan with multiple defenses and do it with less talent. When the talent is on par, look out for Rutgers.


Here's what I think can happen:

2017- NIT bid
2018- NIT with a few nice wins. This is a year playing several very talented freshman
2019- NCAA appearance in the sophomore year of the very talented 2018 class

If things go well and we can pay Pikiell from then, we could be on our way to many NCAA consecutive appearances.

 

[gef21]

wow those stats show vast improvement.