my guess is...
- Pitino gets a 5 year penalty similar to what Tressel got at Ohio St.
- Louisville basketball faces scholarship reductions for 2-3 years and is banned from the post season for 2 years
- will be put on probation for 3 years
- financial penalties
I don't see a death penalty here since the NCAA seems resistant to that but will hurt the program significantly with scholarships reductions and a post season ban.
I 5 year penalty for Pitino will have him at 69-70 years old when he is able to coach again essentially forcing him into retirement. Of course I can see ESPN wanting him for broadcasting or the studio show in a year or so.