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Playcalling thoughts

Okay I just had a real world situation to prove my point. I am doing film breakdown of opponent right now. I have them close to 70% pass on 2nd and 7+. I am watching a game live. They came out in 2nd and 7+ in big I right (QB under center, single WR split to the left, TE to the right, two FBs, and HB). In this formation I have them running 3 playes. Stretch to the strength, counter weakside, and boot to the weakside). The opponent heavily overplayed the run. They ran boot weakside and the inside Fb got into the endzone untouched. weakside LB and weakside DE lost all responsivity backside because they saw formation and thought run.
Ok, so how does that prove the D focused primarily on the down ? You didn’t prove anything
 
Sure, other things matter. But players and sets are primary. Down is not. Weather isn’t even primary. Same five wide shotgun in a snowstorm and you’re still playing pass

Team subs in its dedicated running QB who Never passes. That’s the key read, not the down. It’s always the who and formation first.
So- you are simplifying it- we bring in Jabu- we ain’t passing.
Cripes, I thought you meant more complicated than that.
Then yes, you are right. Janu comes in- you play a defense for 100% run
 
So- you are simplifying it- we bring in Jabu- we ain’t passing.
Cripes, I thought you meant more complicated than that.
Then yes, you are right. Janu comes in- you play a defense for 100% run
what I’m saying is, ‘down’ is never going to be a leading factor for the defense play call. First and 5, or second and 5 makes no difference to the D call. What matters most by far is the O personnel
 
Ok, so how does that prove the D focused primarily on the down ? You didn’t prove anything
The d focused on just the formation and personnel. They saw a run heavy formation but ignored tendency for 2nd and 7+. Purely played formation and not the down. If they took into account the tendency to be a passing team on 2nd and 7+ they probably do not get burned and play a base style as opposed to a run heavy blitz.
 
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The d focused on just the formation and personnel. They saw a run heavy formation but ignored tendency for 2nd and 7+. Purely played formation and not the down. If they took into account the tendency to be a passing team on 2nd and 7+ they probably do not get burned and play a base style as opposed to a run heavy blitz.
Ok, now I understand your example and it exactly proves my point, not yours. It shows the D was focused on the personnel and formation, not the down. You clearly refuted yourself. Easy one.
 
Glad we threw a bunch on 1st down. This was Howard. We could probably win running every single play. So what? We know we can run. The question mark is our passing game. These are the games to work on it.
 
Gemini ai says....As a defensive coordinator, the primary variables to determine if an offense is going to pass or run include: down and distance, yard line, score differential, offensive formation, personnel groupings, recent play calls, offensive tendencies, time remaining in the game, number of timeouts, and the quarterback's tendencies in specific situations; all of these factors contribute to a more accurate prediction of the upcoming play call.
 
what I’m saying is, ‘down’ is never going to be a leading factor for the defense play call. First and 5, or second and 5 makes no difference to the D call. What matters most by far is the O personnel
That is also cherry picking a specific situation where it does make no difference. Wouldn't you say that 1st and 10 or 3rd and 10 makes a difference? Or- 2nd and 2 vs 3rd and 2?
 
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