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Playcalling thoughts

Okay I just had a real world situation to prove my point. I am doing film breakdown of opponent right now. I have them close to 70% pass on 2nd and 7+. I am watching a game live. They came out in 2nd and 7+ in big I right (QB under center, single WR split to the left, TE to the right, two FBs, and HB). In this formation I have them running 3 playes. Stretch to the strength, counter weakside, and boot to the weakside). The opponent heavily overplayed the run. They ran boot weakside and the inside Fb got into the endzone untouched. weakside LB and weakside DE lost all responsivity backside because they saw formation and thought run.
Ok, so how does that prove the D focused primarily on the down ? You didn’t prove anything
 
Sure, other things matter. But players and sets are primary. Down is not. Weather isn’t even primary. Same five wide shotgun in a snowstorm and you’re still playing pass

Team subs in its dedicated running QB who Never passes. That’s the key read, not the down. It’s always the who and formation first.
So- you are simplifying it- we bring in Jabu- we ain’t passing.
Cripes, I thought you meant more complicated than that.
Then yes, you are right. Janu comes in- you play a defense for 100% run
 
So- you are simplifying it- we bring in Jabu- we ain’t passing.
Cripes, I thought you meant more complicated than that.
Then yes, you are right. Janu comes in- you play a defense for 100% run
what I’m saying is, ‘down’ is never going to be a leading factor for the defense play call. First and 5, or second and 5 makes no difference to the D call. What matters most by far is the O personnel
 
Ok, so how does that prove the D focused primarily on the down ? You didn’t prove anything
The d focused on just the formation and personnel. They saw a run heavy formation but ignored tendency for 2nd and 7+. Purely played formation and not the down. If they took into account the tendency to be a passing team on 2nd and 7+ they probably do not get burned and play a base style as opposed to a run heavy blitz.
 
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The d focused on just the formation and personnel. They saw a run heavy formation but ignored tendency for 2nd and 7+. Purely played formation and not the down. If they took into account the tendency to be a passing team on 2nd and 7+ they probably do not get burned and play a base style as opposed to a run heavy blitz.
Ok, now I understand your example and it exactly proves my point, not yours. It shows the D was focused on the personnel and formation, not the down. You clearly refuted yourself. Easy one.
 
Glad we threw a bunch on 1st down. This was Howard. We could probably win running every single play. So what? We know we can run. The question mark is our passing game. These are the games to work on it.
 
Gemini ai says....As a defensive coordinator, the primary variables to determine if an offense is going to pass or run include: down and distance, yard line, score differential, offensive formation, personnel groupings, recent play calls, offensive tendencies, time remaining in the game, number of timeouts, and the quarterback's tendencies in specific situations; all of these factors contribute to a more accurate prediction of the upcoming play call.
 
what I’m saying is, ‘down’ is never going to be a leading factor for the defense play call. First and 5, or second and 5 makes no difference to the D call. What matters most by far is the O personnel
That is also cherry picking a specific situation where it does make no difference. Wouldn't you say that 1st and 10 or 3rd and 10 makes a difference? Or- 2nd and 2 vs 3rd and 2?
 
That is also cherry picking a specific situation where it does make no difference. Wouldn't you say that 1st and 10 or 3rd and 10 makes a difference? Or- 2nd and 2 vs 3rd and 2?
Aren’t you cherry picking as well? And don’t you think there’d be different personnel on 1st and 10 as opposed to 3rd and 10 ?

Let’s say it’s 3rd and 2 empty backfield and 5 wide. Does the defense put in run stoppers or extra DBs? Obviously the latter.
See now ? It’s always personnel before down.

Sure, if personnel isn’t indicative of anything then you move down the list… weather, what’s worked, tape and sure maybe even down. Might even be the O is trying to get the RB 100 yds for the game. Secondary stuff like that. All I am saying, very clearly, is that personnel and formation are the first (primary) D reads. It’s silly to suggest a D would rely most on down tendencies instead of who and what they see on the field. Absolutely ridiculous and you know it.
 
Aren’t you cherry picking as well? And don’t you think there’d be different personnel on 1st and 10 as opposed to 3rd and 10 ?

Let’s say it’s 3rd and 2 empty backfield and 5 wide. Does the defense put in run stoppers or extra DBs? Obviously the latter.
See now ? It’s always personnel before down.

Sure, if personnel isn’t indicative of anything then you move down the list… weather, what’s worked, tape and sure maybe even down. Might even be the O is trying to get the RB 100 yds for the game. Secondary stuff like that. All I am saying, very clearly, is that personnel and formation are the first (primary) D reads. It’s silly to suggest a D would rely most on down tendencies instead of who and what they see on the field. Absolutely ridiculous and you know it.
Have you coached?
 
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Some thoughts on last night's playcalling and what I believe our playcalling should look like moving forward. I'll preface by mentioning that I've never played or coached football at any level.

1) 1st Down:
a) We should run on 1st down 90% of the time or more. We are a run first team who needs to stay on schedule. 2nd & 10 is not where we want to be because it forces us to pass from a disadvantageous position.
b) We should be going hurry up on every 1st down other than on a change of possession. It will allow us to vary tempo, potentially prevents our opponent from substituting, and helps us catch the opponent off guard especially if we're running on 1st down 90+% of the time.

2) 2nd Down:
a) This is where we can look to pass. Anywhere between 2nd & 7 to 2nd & 4 are great spots for a controlled passing game. Screens, slants, quick outs/hitches, TE, playaction.
b) This is also the spot where on 2nd & 3 or less from anywhere between our own ~40 and the opponent's ~30, we can look to go playaction and for the big play.
c) When in doubt, 2nd & 3 or less should be an easy spot for us to move the chains with the run or at minimum set ourselves up for two more downs where we need 3 yds. or less.

3rd Down:
a) If we use the 1st down and 2nd down strategy I've mentioned, we should be in good shape to move the chains in short yardage with runs.
b) 3rd & 4-7/8 is a running down for us. We have the ability to get the 1st or set ourselves up for short yardage on 4th.
c) All 3rd & 1's should be a QB sneak/tush push. Don't make this situation harder than it needs to be.

**As much as I'd like to take shots downfield more frequently, I'd much prefer to stay on schedule, limit turnovers, and keep our QB upright. I have tons of faith in our OL with run blocking, but pass blocking is not where we're strongest.
I f. You are available this Saturday,will you please call plays for is
 
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