Playoff Projections

[jaydogsmooth1]

The Athletic did an interesting analysis (linked for those who can access). They assume Michigan will beat Iowa, which leaves 16 possible combinations of the outcomes of the other games. They looked at each possible outcome and concluded the following:

• MIchigan (whose win is assumed), Georgia, Washington, Oregon, Alabama, and FSU are all win and in. In other words, Texas is the only team still playing who does not control its own destiny.
• Oregon, Alabama, FSU, and Texas are all must-win. Lose and they are out. No two-loss team has a chance under this analysis.
• If Texas wins, they need Georgia OR FSU to lose.
• If Georgia loses, they need both FSU and Texas to lose.
• If Washington loses, they need Georgia to win (knocking out Alabama), and FSU and Texas to lose. Under this scenario, it would come down to Washington vs. Ohio State for the last spot. The Athletic gives it to Washington.
• Ohio State is still alive, but need Georgia to beat Alabama, Washington to beat Oregon, and FSU and Texas to both lose.

To me, the noteworthy thing about this analysis is that Alabama and FSU are both considered win and in. I have seen disagreement on that.

Georgia loses to Alabama: Possible CFP scenarios

As we approach championship weekend, eight teams can still reach the CFP. Here's the path for each of them.

theathletic.com

FSU is all but assured of win and in
Bama has to get in w/a win

Assuming FSU, Mich and Wash all win, all defeated, they're in
Bama beating UGA they'd have to get in

Bama not getting in, playing in the SEC, having only 1 loss to a strong Texas team at the beginning of the season stopping UGA's 29 game win streak, winning SEC division and conference championship (essentially on UGA's home turf) - would make all they did in the regular season / conference champ game useless

Where it gets tricky is if FSU/Wash both win, and Mich loses to Iowa and Bama wins. Do you take 2 SEC teams, or bump UGA to 5 and take 1 big 10 team (and if so, is it OSU or Mich)

Also gets tricky if all undefeated teams lose except for FSU. Do you put Noles at # 1 being only undefeated team (doubtful with no JT).

Moreover, who do you choose for the other 3 spots? Gota go conference title winners (Oregon & Bama) and either UGA/OSU/Mich for the 4 seed (I would bet UGA, assuming they don't lose by 50)

Interesting for sure

 

[rubigtimenow]

Alabama, Michigan, Washington, FSU - the only unbeatens (except for Liberty - but G5 regular season doesn't matter for the CFP).

Oregon, OSU, Texas and Alabama the one loss teams.

Not sure how #1 Georgia gets in with a loss to #8 Alabama.
Especially if #5 Oregon beats #3 Washington.


Georgia best win would be #11 Ole Miss.
OSU would have a win over #9 PSU (only loss to Top 2 Michigan)

Texas would have a win over #3/4 Alabama (only loss to #12 Oklahoma)

12-1 Washington would have a win over Top 2/3 Oregon and only loss to Top 2/3 Oregon.


If Bama wins, wouldnt this make most sense:
#1 Michigan undefeated
#2 FSU undefeated
#3 PAC 12 winner
#4 PAC 12 loser (unless its Oregon at 11-2) or Texas
then Bama, OSU, Georgia

Why is PAC 12 a loser goes home match but SEC isn't?

Real good thoughts Nick! A couple things:
- I agree that Michigan and the PAC winner are in, those 2 are solid (Oregon is the top 1 loss team for various reasons and def are in with a W).
- Hard to believe but I agree now that if Georgia loses they are likely out! Of course they’re in with a win.
- FSU is of course in with a W, but will they win?
- If Texas wins, which they likely will do, and Bama beats Georgia, there is going to be lots of uproar on who gets ranked higher between these 2.. I think they HAVE to pick Texas on account of the 10 point victory in Tuscaloosa. But I know there will be “pressure” (real or perceived) to include an SEC team.

 

[rubigtimenow]

The Athletic did an interesting analysis (linked for those who can access). They assume Michigan will beat Iowa, which leaves 16 possible combinations of the outcomes of the other games. They looked at each possible outcome and concluded the following:

• MIchigan (whose win is assumed), Georgia, Washington, Oregon, Alabama, and FSU are all win and in. In other words, Texas is the only team still playing who does not control its own destiny.
• Oregon, Alabama, FSU, and Texas are all must-win. Lose and they are out. No two-loss team has a chance under this analysis.
• If Texas wins, they need Georgia OR FSU to lose.
• If Georgia loses, they need both FSU and Texas to lose.
• If Washington loses, they need Georgia to win (knocking out Alabama), and FSU and Texas to lose. Under this scenario, it would come down to Washington vs. Ohio State for the last spot. The Athletic gives it to Washington.
• Ohio State is still alive, but need Georgia to beat Alabama, Washington to beat Oregon, and FSU and Texas to both lose.

To me, the noteworthy thing about this analysis is that Alabama and FSU are both considered win and in. I have seen disagreement on that.

Georgia loses to Alabama: Possible CFP scenarios

As we approach championship weekend, eight teams can still reach the CFP. Here's the path for each of them.

theathletic.com

Thanks for posting.
Please explain how the 1st and 3rd bullet make sense together for Texas. If TX win they need Georgia to lose, but in 1st bullet, if Bama wins Bama is in. I think you meant the 3rd bullet to be AND and not OR.
The concept of Bama win and definitely in surprised me. Let’s say Texas wins by 10-20 this week and Bama wins a squeaker. It will be outrageous (to me and most non SEC apologists) for Texas to have beaten Bama in Bama (by 10) and for them to get beaten out by Bama.

 

[RUGuitarMan]

If Georgia gets upset by Alabama, i think they will still get in at #4. There is no way Georgia would lose that game by more than a few pts. The more interesting question is would Alabama get in? They are #8 currently and if Mich, Wash & FSU win , there will be 3 undefeated conf champions plus Georgia who has been the clear # 1 for some time. I think the final 4 will be:

Georgia vs Oregon
Michigan vs FSU

I think Georgia, Mich will win comfortably. Oregon and FSU win close games.

 

[Doctor Worm]

Thanks for posting.
Please explain how the 1st and 3rd bullet make sense together for Texas. If TX win they need Georgia to lose, but in 1st bullet, if Bama wins Bama is in. I think you meant the 3rd bullet to be AND and not OR.
The concept of Bama win and definitely in surprised me. Let’s say Texas wins by 10-20 this week and Bama wins a squeaker. It will be outrageous (to me and most non SEC apologists) for Texas to have beaten Bama in Bama (by 10) and for them to get beaten out by Bama.

Good catch! 3rd bullet should read that if Texas wins, they need FSU to lose, period. They might also get in if Michigan loses, but this analysis assumes a Michigan win.

According to this analysis, the Bama-GA game is irrelevant to Texas, who would be behind the winner and ahead of the loser.

 

[rutgersguy1]

The Athletic did an interesting analysis (linked for those who can access). They assume Michigan will beat Iowa, which leaves 16 possible combinations of the outcomes of the other games. They looked at each possible outcome and concluded the following:

• MIchigan (whose win is assumed), Georgia, Washington, Oregon, Alabama, and FSU are all win and in. In other words, Texas is the only team still playing who does not control its own destiny.
• Oregon, Alabama, FSU, and Texas are all must-win. Lose and they are out. No two-loss team has a chance under this analysis.
• If Texas wins, they need Georgia OR FSU to lose.
• If Georgia loses, they need both FSU and Texas to lose.
• If Washington loses, they need Georgia to win (knocking out Alabama), and FSU and Texas to lose. Under this scenario, it would come down to Washington vs. Ohio State for the last spot. The Athletic gives it to Washington.
• Ohio State is still alive, but need Georgia to beat Alabama, Washington to beat Oregon, and FSU and Texas to both lose.

To me, the noteworthy thing about this analysis is that Alabama and FSU are both considered win and in. I have seen disagreement on that.

Georgia loses to Alabama: Possible CFP scenarios

As we approach championship weekend, eight teams can still reach the CFP. Here's the path for each of them.

theathletic.com

 

[RUforester72]

Go Ducks!