Portal: Outgoing vs. Incoming

[RUChoppin]

I made a comment in the game thread about our portal activity that I wanted to look at a little more. We lost 5 rotational players to the portal last year and picked up 4

Looking at these one by one, comparing on a per-100 possession basis to adjust for the different pace between seasons.

Omoruyi - No replacement was picked up. This was a huge loss. Expectation here was that a combination of adding Sommerville and increasing Ogbole's minutes would mitigate this loss. It hasn't.

Simpson - Closest role replacement here would be Acuff. Simpson was a high usage player with terrible efficiency last year. Per 100 possessions, he had 18.5 pts on 20.0 FGA, 7.2 rb, 6.5 ast, 3.1 stl, and 3.4 tov. Looking at Acuff so far per 100 possessions, he has 14.5 pts on 13.7 FGA, 6.3 rb, 3.0 ast, 1.5 stl, and 1.1 tov. Offensively, not really a huge dropoff here - but this loss is felt more on the defensive side. Whether or not Acuff's defense is impacted by his foot injury over the summer, the result is he's as much of a liability defensively as Simpson was bricking long 2s offensively. I'd say this is a slight advantage to 2023-24 Simpson over 2024-25 Acuff. However, we've seen Simpson has been more efficient this year on a team with other primary scorers.

Mag - Closest role replacement here would be Derkack. Mag had a disappointing year last season after a promising sophomore campaign cut short by injury. Per 100 possessions, he had 19.7 pts on 19.2 FGA, 8.2 rb, 2.7 ast, 2.6 stl, 3.3 tov. By comparison, Derkack has 17.8 pts on 12.9 FGA, 10.4 rb, 6.3 ast, 2.7 stl, 3.4 tov. Again, the loss here is more defensive - especially regarding help defense and the ability to defend 3-5. But Mag also lost a step as a junior from a rebounding and eFG% perspective. I'd say this is probably a wash, but may be slightly to Derkack's advantage.

Griffiths - Closest role replacement here would be Hayes. Two supposed shooters who don't play very good defense. Per 100 possessions, Griffiths had 18.8 pts on 21.3 FGA, 7.2 rb, 2.0 ast, 1.0 stl, 3.0 tov. Meanwhile, Hayes has 17.2 pts on 13.7 FGA, 9.2 rb, 2.0 ast, 1.9 stl, 1.0 tov. Edge goes to Hayes here.

Woolfolk - Closest role replacement here would be Martini. Definitely gave up some size at the 3rd center spot, but Woolf wasn't especially great defensively either - though he did rebound.. Per 100 possessions, Woolf had 15.1 pts on 11.7 FGA (the only outgoing portal player with more points than FGA), 14.1 rb, 2.4 ast, 2.5 stl, 3.7 tov. Martini has 14.4 pts on 9.7 FGA, 6.1 rb, 1.4 ast, 1.9 stl, 1.7 tov.

So.... would we be better off right now if we had Simpson/Mag/Griffiths/Woolf instead of Acuff/Derkack/Hayes/Martini?

I think we'd be better defensively and probably slightly worse offensively. Simpson and Woolf have both seemingly improved in their new landing spots, albeit against an easier schedule. Mag isn't much changed but is getting fewer minutes. Griffiths is glued to the bench.

Ultimately, it might have been just enough to scrape by a couple more wins. If we could have had a combination of Simpson, Derkack, Hayes, and Woolfolk... that might have been the best combo, imo. Not meaningfully better, but improved defense and more culture carry-over from prior seasons.

 

[darkcheck]

I made a comment in the game thread about our portal activity that I wanted to look at a little more. We lost 5 rotational players to the portal last year and picked up 4

Looking at these one by one, comparing on a per-100 possession basis to adjust for the different pace between seasons.

Omoruyi - No replacement was picked up. This was a huge loss. Expectation here was that a combination of adding Sommerville and increasing Ogbole's minutes would mitigate this loss. It hasn't.

Simpson - Closest role replacement here would be Acuff. Simpson was a high usage player with terrible efficiency last year. Per 100 possessions, he had 18.5 pts on 20.0 FGA, 7.2 rb, 6.5 ast, 3.1 stl, and 3.4 tov. Looking at Acuff so far per 100 possessions, he has 14.5 pts on 13.7 FGA, 6.3 rb, 3.0 ast, 1.5 stl, and 1.1 tov. Offensively, not really a huge dropoff here - but this loss is felt more on the defensive side. Whether or not Acuff's defense is impacted by his foot injury over the summer, the result is he's as much of a liability defensively as Simpson was bricking long 2s offensively. I'd say this is a slight advantage to 2023-24 Simpson over 2024-25 Acuff. However, we've seen Simpson has been more efficient this year on a team with other primary scorers.

Mag - Closest role replacement here would be Derkack. Mag had a disappointing year last season after a promising sophomore campaign cut short by injury. Per 100 possessions, he had 19.7 pts on 19.2 FGA, 8.2 rb, 2.7 ast, 2.6 stl, 3.3 tov. By comparison, Derkack has 17.8 pts on 12.9 FGA, 10.4 rb, 6.3 ast, 2.7 stl, 3.4 tov. Again, the loss here is more defensive - especially regarding help defense and the ability to defend 3-5. But Mag also lost a step as a junior from a rebounding and eFG% perspective. I'd say this is probably a wash, but may be slightly to Derkack's advantage.

Griffiths - Closest role replacement here would be Hayes. Two supposed shooters who don't play very good defense. Per 100 possessions, Griffiths had 18.8 pts on 21.3 FGA, 7.2 rb, 2.0 ast, 1.0 stl, 3.0 tov. Meanwhile, Hayes has 17.2 pts on 13.7 FGA, 9.2 rb, 2.0 ast, 1.9 stl, 1.0 tov. Edge goes to Hayes here.

Woolfolk - Closest role replacement here would be Martini. Definitely gave up some size at the 3rd center spot, but Woolf wasn't especially great defensively either - though he did rebound.. Per 100 possessions, Woolf had 15.1 pts on 11.7 FGA (the only outgoing portal player with more points than FGA), 14.1 rb, 2.4 ast, 2.5 stl, 3.7 tov. Martini has 14.4 pts on 9.7 FGA, 6.1 rb, 1.4 ast, 1.9 stl, 1.7 tov.

So.... would we be better off right now if we had Simpson/Mag/Griffiths/Woolf instead of Acuff/Derkack/Hayes/Martini?

I think we'd be better defensively and probably slightly worse offensively. Simpson and Woolf have both seemingly improved in their new landing spots, albeit against an easier schedule. Mag isn't much changed but is getting fewer minutes. Griffiths is glued to the bench.

Ultimately, it might have been just enough to scrape by a couple more wins. If we could have had a combination of Simpson, Derkack, Hayes, and Woolfolk... that might have been the best combo, imo. Not meaningfully better, but improved defense and more culture carry-over from prior seasons.

Nice research and breakdown. Thanks. Would we have saved nil money not making any changes?

 

[RUChoppin]

Nice research and breakdown. Thanks. Would we have saved nil money not making any changes?

No idea.

Also, this is not to say those guys would have stayed even if we pulled out whatever NIL stops we had to keep them. For example, Simpson very likely left because he saw his role was going to be reduced and there was going to be tougher competition for minutes; and Mag did not seem committed to the team at all by the end of last year.

This is just looking at what we got to replace those outgoing roles - I don't really see much overall improvement from what we were able to afford from the portal.

 

[darkcheck]

No idea.

Also, this is not to say those guys would have stayed even if we pulled out whatever NIL stops we had to keep them. For example, Simpson very likely left because he saw his role was going to be reduced and there was going to be tougher competition for minutes; and Mag did not seem committed to the team at all by the end of last year.

This is just looking at what we got to replace those outgoing roles - I don't really see much overall improvement from what we were able to afford from the portal.

What we can afford seems to be a big mystery. Apparently we could have afforded Ewin from FL ST but wouldn’t pay just a little more. So maybe that cost us one or two of the guys you analyzed. Wouldn’t we be better off?

 

[BillyC80]

I made a comment in the game thread about our portal activity that I wanted to look at a little more. We lost 5 rotational players to the portal last year and picked up 4

Looking at these one by one, comparing on a per-100 possession basis to adjust for the different pace between seasons.

Omoruyi - No replacement was picked up. This was a huge loss. Expectation here was that a combination of adding Sommerville and increasing Ogbole's minutes would mitigate this loss. It hasn't.

Simpson - Closest role replacement here would be Acuff. Simpson was a high usage player with terrible efficiency last year. Per 100 possessions, he had 18.5 pts on 20.0 FGA, 7.2 rb, 6.5 ast, 3.1 stl, and 3.4 tov. Looking at Acuff so far per 100 possessions, he has 14.5 pts on 13.7 FGA, 6.3 rb, 3.0 ast, 1.5 stl, and 1.1 tov. Offensively, not really a huge dropoff here - but this loss is felt more on the defensive side. Whether or not Acuff's defense is impacted by his foot injury over the summer, the result is he's as much of a liability defensively as Simpson was bricking long 2s offensively. I'd say this is a slight advantage to 2023-24 Simpson over 2024-25 Acuff. However, we've seen Simpson has been more efficient this year on a team with other primary scorers.

Mag - Closest role replacement here would be Derkack. Mag had a disappointing year last season after a promising sophomore campaign cut short by injury. Per 100 possessions, he had 19.7 pts on 19.2 FGA, 8.2 rb, 2.7 ast, 2.6 stl, 3.3 tov. By comparison, Derkack has 17.8 pts on 12.9 FGA, 10.4 rb, 6.3 ast, 2.7 stl, 3.4 tov. Again, the loss here is more defensive - especially regarding help defense and the ability to defend 3-5. But Mag also lost a step as a junior from a rebounding and eFG% perspective. I'd say this is probably a wash, but may be slightly to Derkack's advantage.

Griffiths - Closest role replacement here would be Hayes. Two supposed shooters who don't play very good defense. Per 100 possessions, Griffiths had 18.8 pts on 21.3 FGA, 7.2 rb, 2.0 ast, 1.0 stl, 3.0 tov. Meanwhile, Hayes has 17.2 pts on 13.7 FGA, 9.2 rb, 2.0 ast, 1.9 stl, 1.0 tov. Edge goes to Hayes here.

Woolfolk - Closest role replacement here would be Martini. Definitely gave up some size at the 3rd center spot, but Woolf wasn't especially great defensively either - though he did rebound.. Per 100 possessions, Woolf had 15.1 pts on 11.7 FGA (the only outgoing portal player with more points than FGA), 14.1 rb, 2.4 ast, 2.5 stl, 3.7 tov. Martini has 14.4 pts on 9.7 FGA, 6.1 rb, 1.4 ast, 1.9 stl, 1.7 tov.

So.... would we be better off right now if we had Simpson/Mag/Griffiths/Woolf instead of Acuff/Derkack/Hayes/Martini?

I think we'd be better defensively and probably slightly worse offensively. Simpson and Woolf have both seemingly improved in their new landing spots, albeit against an easier schedule. Mag isn't much changed but is getting fewer minutes. Griffiths is glued to the bench.

Ultimately, it might have been just enough to scrape by a couple more wins. If we could have had a combination of Simpson, Derkack, Hayes, and Woolfolk... that might have been the best combo, imo. Not meaningfully better, but improved defense and more culture carry-over from prior seasons.

Nice analysis. Goes to show the real difference would have been getting a portal replacement for Cliff — one who understood coming in that their job would be to defend, rebound and protect the rim, with occasional put~backs, dunks, and foul shots.

Hard to believe a B1G team like RU, with 2 lottery picks signed, could not find one guy to fill that role, instead leaving one scholly position unfilled.

 

[RUChoppin]

What we can afford seems to be a big mystery. Apparently we could have afforded Ewin from FL ST but wouldn’t pay just a little more. So maybe that cost us one or two of the guys you analyzed. Wouldn’t we be better off?

First I'd heard of that re: Ewin. Ewin didn't really do much at Ole Miss as a freshman - he's certainly having a great year as part of a very big lineup at FSU this year.

 

[billgumpper]

I made a comment in the game thread about our portal activity that I wanted to look at a little more. We lost 5 rotational players to the portal last year and picked up 4

Looking at these one by one, comparing on a per-100 possession basis to adjust for the different pace between seasons.

Omoruyi - No replacement was picked up. This was a huge loss. Expectation here was that a combination of adding Sommerville and increasing Ogbole's minutes would mitigate this loss. It hasn't.

Simpson - Closest role replacement here would be Acuff. Simpson was a high usage player with terrible efficiency last year. Per 100 possessions, he had 18.5 pts on 20.0 FGA, 7.2 rb, 6.5 ast, 3.1 stl, and 3.4 tov. Looking at Acuff so far per 100 possessions, he has 14.5 pts on 13.7 FGA, 6.3 rb, 3.0 ast, 1.5 stl, and 1.1 tov. Offensively, not really a huge dropoff here - but this loss is felt more on the defensive side. Whether or not Acuff's defense is impacted by his foot injury over the summer, the result is he's as much of a liability defensively as Simpson was bricking long 2s offensively. I'd say this is a slight advantage to 2023-24 Simpson over 2024-25 Acuff. However, we've seen Simpson has been more efficient this year on a team with other primary scorers.

Mag - Closest role replacement here would be Derkack. Mag had a disappointing year last season after a promising sophomore campaign cut short by injury. Per 100 possessions, he had 19.7 pts on 19.2 FGA, 8.2 rb, 2.7 ast, 2.6 stl, 3.3 tov. By comparison, Derkack has 17.8 pts on 12.9 FGA, 10.4 rb, 6.3 ast, 2.7 stl, 3.4 tov. Again, the loss here is more defensive - especially regarding help defense and the ability to defend 3-5. But Mag also lost a step as a junior from a rebounding and eFG% perspective. I'd say this is probably a wash, but may be slightly to Derkack's advantage.

Griffiths - Closest role replacement here would be Hayes. Two supposed shooters who don't play very good defense. Per 100 possessions, Griffiths had 18.8 pts on 21.3 FGA, 7.2 rb, 2.0 ast, 1.0 stl, 3.0 tov. Meanwhile, Hayes has 17.2 pts on 13.7 FGA, 9.2 rb, 2.0 ast, 1.9 stl, 1.0 tov. Edge goes to Hayes here.

Woolfolk - Closest role replacement here would be Martini. Definitely gave up some size at the 3rd center spot, but Woolf wasn't especially great defensively either - though he did rebound.. Per 100 possessions, Woolf had 15.1 pts on 11.7 FGA (the only outgoing portal player with more points than FGA), 14.1 rb, 2.4 ast, 2.5 stl, 3.7 tov. Martini has 14.4 pts on 9.7 FGA, 6.1 rb, 1.4 ast, 1.9 stl, 1.7 tov.

So.... would we be better off right now if we had Simpson/Mag/Griffiths/Woolf instead of Acuff/Derkack/Hayes/Martini?

I think we'd be better defensively and probably slightly worse offensively. Simpson and Woolf have both seemingly improved in their new landing spots, albeit against an easier schedule. Mag isn't much changed but is getting fewer minutes. Griffiths is glued to the bench.

Ultimately, it might have been just enough to scrape by a couple more wins. If we could have had a combination of Simpson, Derkack, Hayes, and Woolfolk... that might have been the best combo, imo. Not meaningfully better, but improved defense and more culture carry-over from prior seasons.

Mag quit on the team, he was never coming back

 

[billgumpper]

I think if Gavin improved, he would’ve given us much more than Hayes or Martini

 

[darkcheck]

First I'd heard of that re: Ewin. Ewin didn't really do much at Ole Miss as a freshman - he's certainly having a great year as part of a very big lineup at FSU this year.

Richie talked about it on the podcast today.

 

[toby83]

We need this 6'8" big from Manhattan, Will Sydnor from the Bronx, went to the Patrick School.
Had offers to Seton Hall, URI, Drexel, etc

Good start to the season
He's not sticking around there

 

[Joey Bags]

We need this 6'8" big from Manhattan, Will Sydnor from the Bronx, went to the Patrick School.
Had offers to Seton Hall, URI, Drexel, etc

Good start to the season
He's not sticking around there

Hard pass. Manhattan to the Big 10 screams bust. Look at that 5 point game against the only power conference team they played.

 

[toby83]

Hard pass. Manhattan to the Big 10 screams bust. Look at that 5 point game against the only power conference team they played.

Amari Williams from CAA and doing just fine for Kentucky
I might take this kid over most of our bigs

 

[Jerseylegends]

Ill never understand how they didn't bring in an experienced big. Couldn't believe it, lowered my expectations.

 

[Jerseylegends]

Amari Williams from CAA and doing just fine for Kentucky
I might take this kid over most of our bigs

That's who Rutgers struck out on. I believe he was at Drexel last year. Amari Williams, but I think he wanted 1,000,000 dollars.

 

[RUshore99]

I think if Gavin improved, he would’ve given us much more than Hayes or Martini

Have you reviewed Gavin's usage or stats at Nebraska?

 

[RUJMM78]

Rutgers is going to be desperate to get from the transfer portal players that can contribute right away .

 

[RUshore99]

Rutgers is going to be desperate to get from the transfer portal players that can contribute right away .

We certainly will have huge minutes available for potential contributors. Can we identify and convince the right ones to join us? The last two years tell us we miss more than we hit.

 

[Mr Magoo]

Only Derkack actually gives us anything at all from the players you mentioned. Woolfolk and Mag would be huge on this team. Even though Woolfolk was in over his head, like you said, he did rebound and he’s way better than Captain Martini. I’ll easily take last year’s group and just hold my nose when Simpson shoots the ball.

 

[billgumpper]

Have you reviewed Gavin's usage or stats at Nebraska?

Do you think the transfers that Pike brought in would play at Nebraska?

 

[mildone]

Mag, if he's actually physically 100% which I kinda doubt, and could stay healthy which I also kinda doubt, would be enormously helpful on D and at rebounding and we wouldn't need him to score except now and then from outside. Cliff would be enormously helpful on D and rebounding and again, we wouldn't really need him to score a bunch, although I think he would get plenty of points with our two superstars drawing double and triple teams all the time. Simpson could help on D.

But it's pretty unclear that any of them would have wanted to stay even with decent NIL offering. Not sure how much Mag or Simpson would appreciate the diminished roles they'd have. They'd have to swallow a fair amount of ego and, after last season, it seems that was never going to happen here at RU.

Edit: BTW, pretty interesting what-if, @RUChoppin. Good stuff.

 

[Shelby65]

Not sure the ‘24 to replacement ‘25 portal player comparison as a way to analyze this year’s struggle is useful.

Last year’s team wasn’t very good either. And Acuff has the same role as Noah F. Hayes not the same role as Griffiths.

Nonetheless, the high usage dynamic duo skews the stats of the others on the court with them. Can’t compare stats across years.

What’s the eye test tell you ?

*That our bigs are slow and play small.
*The shooters Martini, Hayes and Acuff are also slow and can’t get open shots in the offense, and for the same reason (slow) can’t defend either.
*The athletic players Davis&Derkack can’t make open jumpers or layups and can’t rebound their positions. The high major stage is just too big for them.
*Williams is a solid player who along with Harper and Bailey cant make up for the above major roster fail deficiencies.

It is what it is.

Shelby’s opinion is that 1) better players in the portal with mid or high major options didn’t want to come here to watch the Harper and Bailey showcase, and 2) Sommerville insisted no portal 5s be brought here.

End result: crap roster.

 

[RUChoppin]

Mag, if he's actually physically 100% which I kinda doubt, and could stay healthy which I also kinda doubt, would be enormously helpful on D and at rebounding and we wouldn't need him to score except now and then from outside. Cliff would be enormously helpful on D and rebounding and again, we wouldn't really need him to score a bunch, although I think he would get plenty of points with our two superstars drawing double and triple teams all the time. Simpson could help on D.

But it's pretty unclear that any of them would have wanted to stay even with decent NIL offering. Not sure how much Mag or Simpson would appreciate the diminished roles they'd have. They'd have to swallow a fair amount of ego and, after last season, it seems that was never going to happen here at RU.

Edit: BTW, pretty interesting what-if, @RUChoppin. Good stuff.

Junior year Mag would be a huge help - but he was not the same player as a senior that he was as a junior. Part of that may have been the injury, but I think part of it was attitude/effort/checking-out. His rebounding and offensive efficiency went way down his last year here.

Per 100 Possessions:
Junior: 19.1 pts (.500 FG%, .300 3P%, .740 FT%), 12.8 rb
Senior: 19.7 pts (.387 FG%, .285 3P%, .703 FT%), 8.2 rb

I also don't think a diminished role was in the cards for him if he hadn't checked out mentally/emotionally before the end of the season. We didn't really have anyone coming in that was already penciled into that PF spot, and Hyatt was out of eligibility. But with the holding out for NIL and delaying his start date with the team to December, I don't think there was the buy-in necessary to return.

 

[essexknight]

Losing Cliff and then bringing in nothing in the portal at the 5 has greatly damaged the defense and rebounding of this team. It also doesn’t help that a few shooters were brought in and they are all struggling to shoot.

 

[mildone]

Junior year Mag would be a huge help - but he was not the same player as a senior that he was as a junior. Part of that may have been the injury, but I think part of it was attitude/effort/checking-out. His rebounding and offensive efficiency went way down his last year here.

Per 100 Possessions:
Junior: 19.1 pts (.500 FG%, .300 3P%, .740 FT%), 12.8 rb
Senior: 19.7 pts (.387 FG%, .285 3P%, .703 FT%), 8.2 rb

I also don't think a diminished role was in the cards for him if he hadn't checked out mentally/emotionally before the end of the season. We didn't really have anyone coming in that was already penciled into that PF spot, and Hyatt was out of eligibility. But with the holding out for NIL and delaying his start date with the team to December, I don't think there was the buy-in necessary to return.

I can’t prove it. But I think it very likely he was more injured than was ever made public. He was a hugely impactful player (mostly on D) when healthy and I would guess any mental checkout that existed would’ve been driven more by the nature of the injury and what it meant for him long term. It’s just a guess but it fits all known facts (even if it contradicts a lot of non-facts people took to be facts about him).