Obviously, really disappointing ... a game RU had all the opportunity to win, needed to win ... and did not perform well enough to win.
To start, I had posted in a couple of threads prior to the game there were TWO essential keys to this specific game ... on top of RU's GENERAL keys.
So .. general keys include elements such as Harper and Bailey both performing well in the same game - not necessarily at a grade of "A", but both contributing well in the same game ... Having TWO other RU players provide some complementary offense ... rebounding well .. improving their defending ... taking care of the ball (will cover in the Specific Key section).
For the Penn State game, I suggested two Penn State specific keys were to keep RU's turnovers at 14 or fewer (Penn St was 8-0 when they forced the opposing team to 15 or more turnovers), and keeping Penn State UNDER 80 points (PSU was 1-4 in games they scored under 80 points and 11-2 in games they scored over 80 points). Additionally, though I did not specify this, I was thinking RU had an advantage in Harper over Baldwin ... yes, Baldwin is a terrific player, an elite defender, and PSU's best player. But Harper owned Baldwin in the December game - and at 6'6" Harper had a material physical advantage RU needed to exploit. I also felt with Puff Johnson absent, PSU would have a problem matching up with Bailey - who had a solid game in the 1st game between these 2 teams even WITH Puff Johnson. Also, Ogbole and Sommerville combined to really limit Neiderhouser in the December game, so doing similar or the same would be a specific key as well.
Well ... RU failed in almost all the keys, eh? Here is how:
1) Specific Key: Turn the ball over 14 times or fewer. This was the most disappointing. RU had enormous issues in the 1st half, mainly - setting a tone for the game, even though RU did much better in the 2nd half. RU had 12 turnovers in the 1st half alone (when I kept score I showed 11 - I wonder if the last play of the half counted as a turnover). And ended up committing 17 turnovers for the game. This was hurtful in so many ways, of course. Not only did Penn St get points off turnovers (17), but many were because the turnovers were "live ball" turnovers. fueled by 5 steals by Baldwin (4 or 5 in the 1st half alone). But also, RU was extremely productive and efficient when NOT turning the ball over: 56%+ FG, plus of 11 missed shots, 4 offensive rebounds. So every lost opportunity to get a shot off, especially in that strong offensive 1st half was doubly costly. By my count, Harper, Williams and Sommerville each had 2 turnovers in the 1st half - but it seemed everyone had at least 1. FAIL
2) Specific Key: Hold PSU under 80 points (though the actual number is 76 points - PSU had scored 76 points or fewer just 5 times, and was 1-4). Also, a fail ... but I know, just barely. If 76 is the number ... RU may well have won (yeah, I know RU scored just 72 points - but ... a lower scoring PSU team ... 2 fewer turnovers by RU, let's say ... 2 extra makes by wide open Harper/Martini combined - they were 4-15 combined, 2-9 from 3) ... would have meant both fewer points for PSU, more points for RU ... and fewer deliberate fouls down the stretch (i.e. if in the last minute, PSU hit 8-10 FT - either 6 of them purposeful fouls by RU). If RU does not have to foul in the last minute, RU probably holds PSU to 75 points or fewer. Still ... FAIL.
3) Specific Key: Ogbole/Sommerville contain Neiderhouser. While Niederhouser is solid - and does average 12 ppg - RU did well against him in the prior match-up (aided by Davis harassing Baldwin and preventing dribble penetration and easy passes to the post). Well ... not so much here. In the 1st half, and in the 1st 7-8 minutes of the 2nd half, Sommerville was simply AWFUL defensively. Sommerville either let Niederhouser do what he wanted in the post, or failed on the hedges screens - often forcing Grant to rotate to cover the 7'0" Niederhouser - but often not in perfect position (i.e. often behind Niederhouser). Neiderhouser was 7-8 FG and had 18 points ... ouch. FAIL.
4) Specific Key: Harper owning Baldwin, especially Harper offensively owning Baldwin. Well ... did not happen. So, as I pseculated, RU began the game with Harper defending Baldwin - because Acuff is completely incapable doing so. Look, this may not be the reason Harper struggled a bit 0 more on that in a moment. And I know Pikiell hates to change his line-up after a win. And I know Pikiell likes the overall substitutional rotation with Acuff starting. AND ... in this game Davis was not all that good (after the fact we see this). BUT ... for this ONE game, I would have considered starting Davis over Acuff, with one task: TO DEFEND BALDWIN the way he did in the 1st game between RU and PSU. Davis was terrific in that game defending Baldwin, and it would have meant Harper would not have to defend Baldwin too much. Well ... needless to say Pikiell did NOT do this (it would have been bold, but also going with what worked in the 1st game).
I will also state, one factor for Harper clearly was his hurt ankle ... at about the 4:30 mark of the 1st half, Harper rolled his ankle on a drive and came out of the game. While he came back a couple of minutes later and played most of the 2nd half, it was VERY clear he was not 100% - he lacked explosiveness or aggression towards the basket on offense. And his shots were mostly not in rhythm, and were often short. Harper went 1-1-8 FG in the 2nd half - and was a huge reason RU struggled (more on that later) and why Bailey got no offensive help. Harper owning Baldwin? FAIL.
5) Bailey exploiting an added mismatch in the absence of Puff Johnson. Yep. This happened. Bailey was dominant. Yeah, he made not just 1, but 2 costly mental errors that cost him 2 fouls, PSU 3-4 extra FT (so 3 points), AND kept Bailey off the floor at really important moments of the game, when they really needed him. Even so, tough to complain when he got essentially NO other help (kind of like the Indiana game), was ridiculously efficient (13-15 FG plus 7 rebounds). Hard to believe he got no FT's, though. SUCCESS.
6) General Key: Harper and Bailey both performing and producing at least decently. Well ... Bailey was great. Harper was ... welll okay, at least, in the 1st half until he rolled his ankle (though he did have 2 turnovers) ... Harper being 108 FG in the 2nd half meant ... FAIL.
7) General Key: Two other RU players provide some complimentary offense. Well .. Sommerville scored 12 points, 6 in each half (2 FG in the 1st half, 6-6 FT in the 2nd half). he did end up with 6 rebounds, which was fine ... but he was awful defensively in the 1st half and the first 6-8 minutes of the 2nd half. a 2nd complementary player? Uh ... nope. Grant was 3-5 with 7 points - and was solid, mostly ... but not enough to be the 2nd complementary scorer. martini was 1-4 from the 3-point line, 3 points. Acuff - ouch, another ZERO - 3rd game in a row he was useless both offensively and defensively - 3 points total in those 3 games ... he did have 3 assists and just 1 turnover. But also was covering Dilione in the 1st half (3-3 3-pointers), and got burned badly several times at important junctures of the 2nd half on drives by the player he was covering ... so neither offense nor defense. Williams? ... just 6 points on 3-6 FG - but a really bad floor game this game ... Williams has had a really good floor game the last few games, but was terrible against PSU - 5 turnovers, 4 of which because he put himself in bad positions and 1 an unforced error dribbling the ball off his own leg when there was no pressure on him at all. Derkakc - gave energy - especially as RU rallied from down 10 points ... but just 6 points. Davis did have a poor game. Ogbole was solid, but no scoring. So ... FAIL.
8) General Key: Rebounding. RU actually did very, very well in this area. No one dominant rebounder per se, but they outrebounded PSU 34-22 - and 10-4 on the offensive boards. Bailey and Ogbole had 7 rebounds each. Sommerville had 6, Harper 4, Grant 3. Sommerville had a particularly strong 2nd half rebounding effort (4 of his 6). Ogbole and Bailey were good in both halves. PSU had come into the game averaging +2 rebounding versus their opponents, and outrebounding their opponents on the offensive boards as well. So RU did fine here. SUCCESS.
The defense was not great - at times awful, frankly, but at other times very solid. RU did have 7 steals, forcing 13 turnovers, which is fine. RU limited PSU to 3-9 3-pointers in the 2nd half - but overall, allowed PSU to shoot 10-21 (48% ... and 10 3-poonters is too many when only 1 RU player was consistently scoring). RU was solid in its 2-point defense in the 1st half - but weaker in the 2nd half. Basically inconsistent.
Bailey: Frankly, an amazing game, marred by 2 emotionally loss-of-control plays that were very costly to RU. Hard to blame him for the loss, though those plays WERE very costly - because he got no help from almost anyone else offensively. Those 2 plays gave PSU 4 FT's of which they made 3 - so 3 extra points, and at key moments of the game when RU was truggling to rally (they did not cost RU the ball - as they were deadball fouls after a Bailey dunk - so PSU ball any way). But those were also 2 PERSONAL fouls, Bailey's 4th and 5th fouls, and after each Bailey had to sit - for a crucial 2 minutes after his 4th foul, and for the last 20 seconds after the 2nd call ... at times when NO OTHER RU PLAYER BESIDES BAILEY had showed the ability to generate points.
KEY SEQUENCE #1: In the 2nd half, Bailey was taken out, for a necessary rest at the 9:23 minute mark, RU was up 53-51 after Acuff had missed a 3-pointer and PSU had hit 1-2 FT. Here were the sequences of play, starting the possession before Bailey went to the bench:
A) How no RU player stepped up in the last 10 minutes of the game when Bailey had to rest. Any ONE of Harper, Acuff or Martini (combined 0-5 3's in that span) hitting even ONE 3 ... RU probably ahs the LEAD with 2 minutes left, not down 2 or 3 - a totally different end game dynamic.
B) How close the margin really was, even with RU FAILING on so many keys.
To start, I had posted in a couple of threads prior to the game there were TWO essential keys to this specific game ... on top of RU's GENERAL keys.
So .. general keys include elements such as Harper and Bailey both performing well in the same game - not necessarily at a grade of "A", but both contributing well in the same game ... Having TWO other RU players provide some complementary offense ... rebounding well .. improving their defending ... taking care of the ball (will cover in the Specific Key section).
For the Penn State game, I suggested two Penn State specific keys were to keep RU's turnovers at 14 or fewer (Penn St was 8-0 when they forced the opposing team to 15 or more turnovers), and keeping Penn State UNDER 80 points (PSU was 1-4 in games they scored under 80 points and 11-2 in games they scored over 80 points). Additionally, though I did not specify this, I was thinking RU had an advantage in Harper over Baldwin ... yes, Baldwin is a terrific player, an elite defender, and PSU's best player. But Harper owned Baldwin in the December game - and at 6'6" Harper had a material physical advantage RU needed to exploit. I also felt with Puff Johnson absent, PSU would have a problem matching up with Bailey - who had a solid game in the 1st game between these 2 teams even WITH Puff Johnson. Also, Ogbole and Sommerville combined to really limit Neiderhouser in the December game, so doing similar or the same would be a specific key as well.
Well ... RU failed in almost all the keys, eh? Here is how:
1) Specific Key: Turn the ball over 14 times or fewer. This was the most disappointing. RU had enormous issues in the 1st half, mainly - setting a tone for the game, even though RU did much better in the 2nd half. RU had 12 turnovers in the 1st half alone (when I kept score I showed 11 - I wonder if the last play of the half counted as a turnover). And ended up committing 17 turnovers for the game. This was hurtful in so many ways, of course. Not only did Penn St get points off turnovers (17), but many were because the turnovers were "live ball" turnovers. fueled by 5 steals by Baldwin (4 or 5 in the 1st half alone). But also, RU was extremely productive and efficient when NOT turning the ball over: 56%+ FG, plus of 11 missed shots, 4 offensive rebounds. So every lost opportunity to get a shot off, especially in that strong offensive 1st half was doubly costly. By my count, Harper, Williams and Sommerville each had 2 turnovers in the 1st half - but it seemed everyone had at least 1. FAIL
2) Specific Key: Hold PSU under 80 points (though the actual number is 76 points - PSU had scored 76 points or fewer just 5 times, and was 1-4). Also, a fail ... but I know, just barely. If 76 is the number ... RU may well have won (yeah, I know RU scored just 72 points - but ... a lower scoring PSU team ... 2 fewer turnovers by RU, let's say ... 2 extra makes by wide open Harper/Martini combined - they were 4-15 combined, 2-9 from 3) ... would have meant both fewer points for PSU, more points for RU ... and fewer deliberate fouls down the stretch (i.e. if in the last minute, PSU hit 8-10 FT - either 6 of them purposeful fouls by RU). If RU does not have to foul in the last minute, RU probably holds PSU to 75 points or fewer. Still ... FAIL.
3) Specific Key: Ogbole/Sommerville contain Neiderhouser. While Niederhouser is solid - and does average 12 ppg - RU did well against him in the prior match-up (aided by Davis harassing Baldwin and preventing dribble penetration and easy passes to the post). Well ... not so much here. In the 1st half, and in the 1st 7-8 minutes of the 2nd half, Sommerville was simply AWFUL defensively. Sommerville either let Niederhouser do what he wanted in the post, or failed on the hedges screens - often forcing Grant to rotate to cover the 7'0" Niederhouser - but often not in perfect position (i.e. often behind Niederhouser). Neiderhouser was 7-8 FG and had 18 points ... ouch. FAIL.
4) Specific Key: Harper owning Baldwin, especially Harper offensively owning Baldwin. Well ... did not happen. So, as I pseculated, RU began the game with Harper defending Baldwin - because Acuff is completely incapable doing so. Look, this may not be the reason Harper struggled a bit 0 more on that in a moment. And I know Pikiell hates to change his line-up after a win. And I know Pikiell likes the overall substitutional rotation with Acuff starting. AND ... in this game Davis was not all that good (after the fact we see this). BUT ... for this ONE game, I would have considered starting Davis over Acuff, with one task: TO DEFEND BALDWIN the way he did in the 1st game between RU and PSU. Davis was terrific in that game defending Baldwin, and it would have meant Harper would not have to defend Baldwin too much. Well ... needless to say Pikiell did NOT do this (it would have been bold, but also going with what worked in the 1st game).
I will also state, one factor for Harper clearly was his hurt ankle ... at about the 4:30 mark of the 1st half, Harper rolled his ankle on a drive and came out of the game. While he came back a couple of minutes later and played most of the 2nd half, it was VERY clear he was not 100% - he lacked explosiveness or aggression towards the basket on offense. And his shots were mostly not in rhythm, and were often short. Harper went 1-1-8 FG in the 2nd half - and was a huge reason RU struggled (more on that later) and why Bailey got no offensive help. Harper owning Baldwin? FAIL.
5) Bailey exploiting an added mismatch in the absence of Puff Johnson. Yep. This happened. Bailey was dominant. Yeah, he made not just 1, but 2 costly mental errors that cost him 2 fouls, PSU 3-4 extra FT (so 3 points), AND kept Bailey off the floor at really important moments of the game, when they really needed him. Even so, tough to complain when he got essentially NO other help (kind of like the Indiana game), was ridiculously efficient (13-15 FG plus 7 rebounds). Hard to believe he got no FT's, though. SUCCESS.
6) General Key: Harper and Bailey both performing and producing at least decently. Well ... Bailey was great. Harper was ... welll okay, at least, in the 1st half until he rolled his ankle (though he did have 2 turnovers) ... Harper being 108 FG in the 2nd half meant ... FAIL.
7) General Key: Two other RU players provide some complimentary offense. Well .. Sommerville scored 12 points, 6 in each half (2 FG in the 1st half, 6-6 FT in the 2nd half). he did end up with 6 rebounds, which was fine ... but he was awful defensively in the 1st half and the first 6-8 minutes of the 2nd half. a 2nd complementary player? Uh ... nope. Grant was 3-5 with 7 points - and was solid, mostly ... but not enough to be the 2nd complementary scorer. martini was 1-4 from the 3-point line, 3 points. Acuff - ouch, another ZERO - 3rd game in a row he was useless both offensively and defensively - 3 points total in those 3 games ... he did have 3 assists and just 1 turnover. But also was covering Dilione in the 1st half (3-3 3-pointers), and got burned badly several times at important junctures of the 2nd half on drives by the player he was covering ... so neither offense nor defense. Williams? ... just 6 points on 3-6 FG - but a really bad floor game this game ... Williams has had a really good floor game the last few games, but was terrible against PSU - 5 turnovers, 4 of which because he put himself in bad positions and 1 an unforced error dribbling the ball off his own leg when there was no pressure on him at all. Derkakc - gave energy - especially as RU rallied from down 10 points ... but just 6 points. Davis did have a poor game. Ogbole was solid, but no scoring. So ... FAIL.
8) General Key: Rebounding. RU actually did very, very well in this area. No one dominant rebounder per se, but they outrebounded PSU 34-22 - and 10-4 on the offensive boards. Bailey and Ogbole had 7 rebounds each. Sommerville had 6, Harper 4, Grant 3. Sommerville had a particularly strong 2nd half rebounding effort (4 of his 6). Ogbole and Bailey were good in both halves. PSU had come into the game averaging +2 rebounding versus their opponents, and outrebounding their opponents on the offensive boards as well. So RU did fine here. SUCCESS.
The defense was not great - at times awful, frankly, but at other times very solid. RU did have 7 steals, forcing 13 turnovers, which is fine. RU limited PSU to 3-9 3-pointers in the 2nd half - but overall, allowed PSU to shoot 10-21 (48% ... and 10 3-poonters is too many when only 1 RU player was consistently scoring). RU was solid in its 2-point defense in the 1st half - but weaker in the 2nd half. Basically inconsistent.
Bailey: Frankly, an amazing game, marred by 2 emotionally loss-of-control plays that were very costly to RU. Hard to blame him for the loss, though those plays WERE very costly - because he got no help from almost anyone else offensively. Those 2 plays gave PSU 4 FT's of which they made 3 - so 3 extra points, and at key moments of the game when RU was truggling to rally (they did not cost RU the ball - as they were deadball fouls after a Bailey dunk - so PSU ball any way). But those were also 2 PERSONAL fouls, Bailey's 4th and 5th fouls, and after each Bailey had to sit - for a crucial 2 minutes after his 4th foul, and for the last 20 seconds after the 2nd call ... at times when NO OTHER RU PLAYER BESIDES BAILEY had showed the ability to generate points.
KEY SEQUENCE #1: In the 2nd half, Bailey was taken out, for a necessary rest at the 9:23 minute mark, RU was up 53-51 after Acuff had missed a 3-pointer and PSU had hit 1-2 FT. Here were the sequences of play, starting the possession before Bailey went to the bench:
1) At 10:13, up 53-50 after an RU defensive stop after Bailey had scored, Acuff took a very ill-advised 3, though he was open, it was because he was very deep, and it was relatively early in the shot clock.
2) Sommerville foul, PSU 2-2 FT - 53-52 (the start of a 11-0 PSU run).
3) Bailey taken out for a rest at 9:23, Harper put back in for Bailey.
4) Sommerville misses a wide open face-up 14 footer - a good shot, but a miss.
5) Kern beats Acuff very easily and badly on a drive for a lay-up: 53-54.
6) Harper misses a 3.
7) Off Harper's missed 3, Baldwin hits a 3 in transition ... 53-57.
8) Acuff takes and misses another 3.
9) RU gets a defensive stop.
10) Harper drives but misses a lay-up.
11) Baldwin mises a 3, but Neiderhouser tips in the ball for an offensive rebound FG ... 53-69.
12) 7:10 on the clock ... RU time out, Bailey returns, J. Davis out. Note: At this time on the 2nd half, RU was 7-17 FG in the half, but just 3-14 FG other than Bailey (who was 3-3 in the 2nd half at this time).
13) After RU time out, PSU great half court defense, forces RU into a shot clock violation turnover.
14) PSU gets a lay-up from Neiderhouser - I think he set a high screen, rolled, and Grant had to rotate form the weakside - which he did, but got caught on Neiderhosuer's back, so easy pass by Baldwin and easy FG by Niederhouser ... 53-61
Grant finally broke RU's mini-drought with a dunk, making it 55-61, a drought of about 4 minutes, during which RU went 0-5 FG (essentially with Bailey out), plus a turnover.
In the next sequence, FYI, Williams committed 2 fouls, within 5 seconds of each other at the 5:35 mark or so - his 3rd and 4th fouls ... and the 2nd such foul resulted in 2-2 FT by PSU, up 55-63. This was followed by back to back steals (one by PSU, then one by Bailey), and Bailey's posterizing dunk, followed by his 4th foul from taunting (which he absolutely did) ... 57-63, but PSU hit 2-2 FT, followed by a FG by Neiderhouser ... so 57-67.
Key Sequence #2 - End Game: At the 3:40 mark, RU down 57-67:1) Derkack on line, 2-2 FT ... 59-67 ... Ogbole in for Sommerville ...
2) RU stop (missed 3 by PSU).
3) Bailey transition lay-up, 61-67.
4) Sommerville in for Ogbole at 3 minutes ... Steal by Derkakc, PSU turnover (RU stop) ,,, Sommerville fouled, 2-2 FT, 63-67
5) Derkack committed foul, PSU 2-2 FT, 63-69.
6) Martini miss open 3, Bailey offensive rebound and put back FG ... 65-69 ... 2"28 left
7) Baldwin defended on drive, Sommerville good rebound, then fouled on RU offensive set, 2-2 FT ... 67-69 ... 1:52 left.
8) Sommerville commit foul, PSU just 1-2 FT ... 67-70.
9) Harper miss wide open 3 - and I mean wide open ... at 1:11 left
10) Kern scores lay-up in transition after Harper missed 3, 67-72, 1:03 left.
11) Harper makes good penetration move, gets wide open 12-14 foot pull-up in lane ... misses at 45 seconds left.
12) PSU 2-2 FT ... purposeful foul ... 67-74.
13) Bailey ridiculous 3 over Niederhouser, 36 seconds left ... 70-74.
14) PSU 1-2 FT on purposeful foul ... 70-75.
15) Bailey great dunk in transition ... 72-75 ... 21 seconds left ...
16) But Bailey gets called for a deadball technical (on a deliberate, senseless push!!), his 5th foul ... PSU 1-2 FT ,,, then RU fouls with 16 seconds left, PSU 2-2 FT ... 72-78.
17) Harper missed 3 with 8 seconds left, RU fouls and PSU 2-2 FT - 72-80.
So ... Without Bailey's 2 technicals, with 15 seconds left, assuming no other dynamics, RU might have been down 75-72, with Bailey in the game and RU ball. Odds are BAILEY takes that last 3, not Harper.
Anyway, I thought I'd map out those 2 huge sequences, to show:A) How no RU player stepped up in the last 10 minutes of the game when Bailey had to rest. Any ONE of Harper, Acuff or Martini (combined 0-5 3's in that span) hitting even ONE 3 ... RU probably ahs the LEAD with 2 minutes left, not down 2 or 3 - a totally different end game dynamic.
B) How close the margin really was, even with RU FAILING on so many keys.
