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Post Mortem by Lion - RU vs Seton Hall

lion1983

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May 2, 2024
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I have to start by calling out so many posters on this Board as whiny little b***ches. I am sorry, but it is true. I popped onto the Board after the game expecting to see lots of different views on the game, like usual (some critical of some aspects, but some - and more - pleased for the team pulling out a tough, hard-fought victory). What did I find? Multiple threads of complaints, of calling the LOSING coach a better coach than the RU coach, of multiple disparagements of the RU team and of its coaching staff .... I would say the NEGATIVE threads felt like they outnumbered positive or even NEUTRAL threads (and I am not talking about posts within threads, but the starting threads themselves) by at least 3:1, maybe more. Jeez ... RU just WON, for goodness sakes ... in a rock fight ... against a hated local rival ... against a team that very likely at this stage of the season viewed this game as potential redemption for an awful start to their season ... against a team with FOUR top 100 recruits (all of whim had at least 1 season's P5 experience).

To those who argued (and it was at least 4-5 posters) that Holloway is the better coach, please, stop. Pikiell has the far better coaching resume (8 20-win seasons, 8 post-season appearances - 4 to the NCAA - 11 winning records in 19 seasons - and has completely built or rebuilt TWO programs, brought RU to the NCAA for the first time in 29 years with a team of 2 star recruits - and to the NCAA in back to back seasons), has coached his team to back to back wins over SHU, etc., etc., etc. Maybe Holloway is a great coach. But if so, how come his current SHU team is so bad with so many Top 100 recruits? FYI, is Mick Cronin of UCLA suddenly a bad coach because his team went 7-16 FT and only beat a now 4-5 Arizona by 3? If RU goes 20-28 FT - about their now season-average, RU wins by double digits, going away.

Next ... the name of the game is to WIN, to find ways to WIN, even when you are not executing at your best. RU just did that versus SHU (as they did versus Penn State). Yes, RU is still a work in progress, and must continue to improve as a team, and as individual players, if they wish to make the NCAA. But they have now 2 more OOC conference games - in 2 weeks ... so outside of finishing finals, taking a couple of holiday breaks, RU has 17 days (only 2 games in that span) before they hit the road against Indiana - and the real test to see whether RU is an NCAA invite team is undergone.

Next, people should remember: THE OTHER TEAM ALSO PLAYS AND TRIES TO WIN. People on this Board often act as if the other team is supposed to be like the Washington Generals, letting the Globetrotters do whatever they want. In addition, people need to remember that RU's top 2 players are 18-year-old TRUE FRESHMEN, no matter how talented they might be, and that in many cases the opposing team will have their best players as Seniors and Grad transfers - 22- and 23-year-old MEN. Two of SHU's top 3 players were Graduate Transfers, 5th year players, FYI. Against Penn State it was even more pronounced. Get used to it - RU walks into every game with ONE advantage: It is likely to have the 2 most talented players in the game. But that advantage will be offset by a significant DISADVANTAGE: The opposing team's best players are likely to be veterans, 22- and 23-year-old 4th and 5th year players.

One last comment for game specific comments: I have RU just ONE game behind where I expected them. Admittedly, that is a really bad game, the Kennesaw State loss (even if on the road, its a bad loss). The result of every other game is the exact result I projected. RU has 20 remaining games. Of those, I assign RU's remaining games as "Expected Wins" (10 - 8 in conference), "Expected Losses" (4), and "Swing/??" (6 - 2 road, 3 home and MSU at MSG) games. I do expect RU to win the 2 OOC games ... the task for the staff and team would then be to find a way to hold serve on the expected wins, and find a way to win 2 or 3 of the "Swing/??" games. For every game RU loses from the "Expected Win" column of mine, they need to offset with an extra win from either the Expected Loss" or the "Swing" columns.

Now, to the SHU game, specifically:

1) Offense:
SHU gets a lot of credit for two things, specifically, that limited RU's offense: 1) They controlled the PACE of RU's offense through very solid defense - RU had to really work to get any good shots off; and 2) SHU pressured the ball causing a number of RU turnovers - 11 steals by SHU leading to 15 RU turnovers, often doubling the ball and using quick hands to poke away to get into the passing lanes. Oddly enough, I though RU did better against PSU's turnover creating defense than it did against SHU's defense. What may be lost is that RU had 6 turnovers in the 1st 5-7 minutes of the game (to SHU's credit) - but just 9 turnovers the remaining 33-35 minutes of the game. In other words, RU cleaned up its ball handling and passing somewhat. RU ended up with 11 turnovers in the 1st half - just 4 turnovers in the 2nd half.

Because of a combination of turnovers and Harper's 2 fouls, and SHU's ability to set the pace, RU only got 22 FG attempts - and only 1 player was able to be effective .... but here is the advnatage of having 2 major talents - they can sometimes carry the team. Bailey carried RU in that 1st half: 15 points, on 9 of RU's 22 FG attempts, and 7 of RU's 11 FG makes ... Harper had 2 more FG's, for 6 points, and the rest of the team had 2 made FG's in 7 attempts. Was that a failure of the rest of the team, or SHU's credit slowing the game down, and Bailey just taking over. RU had just 2 assists that half - partly because when Bailey takes over, he tends to fo ISO - and no assists, therefore.

The 2nd half, Harper took over hitting 6-8 FG's, scoring 18 points. But he did get a little help from others also: Bailey with 6 points on 2 very important 3's, Derkack with 6 points, Sommerville with 3-4 FT.

The BIGGEST problem with RU's offense versus SHU, in the end, was not even the 15 total turnovers (which were solved in the 2nd half), nort even the lack of shooting attempts from the other players. It was the FT shooting. RU ended up hitting almost 54% of its attempted FG's and 54% from 3 - very good numbers versus a SHU team allowing its opponents to shoot just 40% FG and 29% from 3. The PROBLEM was 13-28 from the FT line ... and especially just 1-8 FT from Bailey (including the front end of a 1 and 1) - 1-8 from one of RU's stars. Bailey should be expected to hit 5-8 or 6-8 ... meaning he should have had 25-26 points, not 21, and RU would likely have won by double digits not a last second shot. Completely unpredictable, and unusual. It did not help that Harper only made 4-7 FT, that Davis missed both of his FT (after starting the year 7-11) or that Martini missed his sole try, the front-end of a 1 and 1. FYI, all the missed FT's also padded SHU's rebounding numbers, adding at least 6 rebounds of missed FT. I know it is small consolation, given the missed FT's, but RU continues to get to the FT line in copious amounts: Yet again, RU MADE more FT's than its opponent ATTEMPTED (well, in this game the same amount. This has been a consistent pattern throughout the season, a positive for RU.

I would add, at one point in the 2nd half, as RU led 59-57, TU had been 8-11 FT (11-20 on the game) - RU went 2-8 FT in the last 3 minutes. The following sequences included: an RU defensive stop, the Davis 0-2 FT, Sommerville 2-2 FT, SHU score, Harper great 12' pull-up, RU defensive stop, Harper 0-2 FT, SHU offensive rebound score, Bailey 0-2 FT, SHU tying score, Harper 3.

2) Defense: So ... RU's defense did some good things, and some not-so-good things. The not so good: Too many points in the paint (36 for SHU), too many easy-ish in-the-lane shots. And, RU was unable to force SHU into many turnovers - just 10 on the game, with just 4 steals. BUT ... RU also really limited SHU's 3-point attempts - perhaps this was intentional (I do not know). I do know SHU was shooting 36% from 3 on the season, but against RU hit just 5-19 (26%). Perhaps this was a deliberate focus of RU, to pressure the 3-point line - but in doing so, gave up some additional interior shots?

Also very good: a) RU committed very few fouls that led to FT's: RU committed just 15 fouls, leading to just 13 FT's; b) RU held SHU's leading scorer to just 8 points, allowing him just 4 FG attempts, and forcing him to commit 4 turnovers ... holding Addae-Wusu, their 3rd leading scorer to hit just 3-10 FG, and though they allowed SHU's 2nd leading scorer to get 15 points, it was on an inefficient 5-14 FG. In fact, SHU's top 3 scorers heading into this game were just 11-28 , combined. RU's defense was not tip top, but was more than adequate. In particular, Harper was solid defensively, and Davis, Williams, Derkack and Sommerville did well defensively, IMO.

3) Rebounding: So ... SHU had 31 rebounds to RU's 30 ... but just 8 offensive rebounds (of their 30 missed shots - under 30% of their misses) - that is a solid job of RU's defensive rebounding. Bailey was effective, with 7, and Williams was great with 7. Derkack had 5. As mentioned above, SHU had 6 of their 31 total rebounds off RU missed FT's - generally a much easier rebound than in game flow. If you exclude rebounds from missed FT's (and RU had 3 off SHU missed FT's, the true "game-flow" rebounding was RU 27, SHU 25 - and SHU is a generally good rebounding team, coming into the game with a +3 per game rebounding edge. Further improvement would be desired, but solid effort, at least.

Players:

1) Harper: Somewhat limited in the 1st half, having to sit down for a chunk (5 minutes, perhaps) with 2 fouls - he did come back with 7 minutes left in the half, and 2 fouls (committed 2 turnovers in the last 7 minutes of the half). Had trouble getting to his spots in the first half, had 3 first half turnovers, was 2-5FG in the first half. But ... well ... superb execution in the 2nd half: 6-8 FG (including 3-4 3-pointers), 3 rebounds, 2 assists, solid defense without fouling (and the 1 foul he was called for sure looked like a great, clean, recovery blocked shot) - and of course the clutch buzzer beating 3. No one can figure out what SHU was doing that last play - letting Harper receive the in-bounds pass uncontested, soft coverage bringing the ball up the court, getting an uncontested (even if long) 3. It is true Harper had an excellent jab step that spun #33 around, freeing him for the truly uncontested shot -0 so Harper deserves some credit for a good move. Even so ... everyone in the arena knew RU wanted the ball in Harper's hands, and even knowing Holloway must have told his team DO NOT FOUL ... how can they not double Harper on the in-bounds pass, to at least try to prevent him from receiving the ball? And the 3 was a beautiful shot: not outrageously long (maybe NBA-distance 3), in perfect form and rhythm. And made.

2) Bailey: If Harper won the game for RU, Bailey gets credit for single-handedly keeping RU in the game in the 1st half, with getting and making good shots, in rhythm, that could not be easily contested ... and making 2 hugely timely 3's in the 2nd Half ... and getting 7 rebounds. On the downside, he was a ridiculously bad 1-8 FT - should have had 25-26 points, not "merely" 21 points. he was also slow getting out to the 3-point line several times when defending Toumi (who hit 2 3's). Still, a good overall game, and scored 21 points om just 15 shots (9-15 FG, 2-3 3-pointers) ... How strange is it to be saying an RU player scored 21 points - and should have much more? Are we already so blase about Bailey and Harper's offensive skills that we tale 20+ point games for granted?

3) Derkack: Not the starter, but off the bench had the 3rd best all around game vs SHU. He did force his sole 3, but otherwise was an okay 2-5 FG, HIT HIS FT's (5-6), scored 9 points, 5 rebounds, a steal and an assist - and high energy defense. Definitely a key player this game. I really like him coming off the bench did have the 5th most minutes.

4) Williams: I thought Williams played really well, though it does not jump out in the box score. He only attempted 2 shots - he did not force ANYTHING into the teeth of SHU's defense. I know he had 3 turnovers, also. But I thought his passing was excellent (the box score said 2 assists, I counted 3, frankly) - when he had the ball the ball kept moving for the most part. he was really looking to set up his teammates. And ... he had 7 rebounds, tied with Bailey for leading rebounder. I thought he also played good defense. I may be wrong (someone should feel free to correct me), but he did cover WUsu and Coleman at times - so Coleman did score 15 - but Wusu and Coleman also combined for 8-22 FG shooting. And Williams had 2 of RU's 4 steals. Additionally, I thought Williams was a stabilizing force for RU.

5) Davis: Yeah, he missed to crucial FT's after being fouled in transition - and had another shot blocked at the rium ... and had 2 TO's, only 1 assist. BUT ... I think he continued to provide the excellent defense he had done versus Penn State - and RU needs him to be the effective on-ball defender he had been last season, that I thought he'd be this season - and until the Penn State game had NOT been. I thought Davis was fine versus SHU - though he had been better versus Penn State.

6) Sommerville: Hit hugely important FT's towards the end (the only RU player to hit any FT's in the last 3 minutes of the game), 3-4 FT on the game. He only had 3 rebounds in 24 minutes, BUT ... despite allowing Okorafor to get 4 offensive rebounds, I felt Sommerville continued to show progress defensively: RU's only blocked shot, solid "wall-up" positional defense, etc. Yes, still room for improvement, but slowly but hopefully surely, getting there.

7) The Rest: Hayes - hit the single 3 he took, but was not open very much, and in a slow-down, fewer possession game like this, when Harper and bailey dominated the ball each half, not that many chances ... Acuff - missed his only 3, which was not a reason to not play, but he did little else and got a DNP in thje 2nd half ... Martini - 8 minutes in the 1st half, zero rebounds, poor defense, missed the front end of a 1 + 1, DNP in the 2nd half.

8) General: Many wanted Pikiell to shorten RU's rotation, well here it is: Starters are Harper, Bailey, Williams, Davis, Ogbole ... primary, every game bench players are Derkack and Sommerville, and MAYBE Hayes ... spot, situational (based on match-ups, foul trouble, specific in-game needs and "hotness" of the player) players: Acuff, Martini and maybe Grant occasionally. There it is: 8-man rotation with Acuff and Martini, and maybe Grant as situational players.
 
If i were Pike this morning the 1st thing I would be looking at is to see what went wrong with the 4-5 baskets that were scored inside in the 2nd half.

Watching the game live without the abiliry to rewind and see the entire court I may wonder if Ogobole should be getting some of Somerville’s minutes. Sometimes, actual often. You can see things differrntly with rewind and slow motion
 
ya he was defending refs in our game in Vegas and then admitted he actually hadn't watched it. so his opinion is worth crap IMO....AND HE STARTS THIS GARBAGE POST BY SAYING WE ARE WHINY BITCHES. ya ok.
He is right. A lot of fans are acting like whinny bitches. The team is underperforming expectations and they are lookking for scapegoats. It is OK. I have been a whinny bitch a few times this seaosn.
 
ya he was defending refs in our game in Vegas and then admitted he actually hadn't watched it. so his opinion is worth crap IMO
Huh?

a) "lion" refers to my alma mater, Columbia, not Penn State - absolutely HATE Penn St, hate Paterno who was the man who killed an Eastern All Sports conference in the 1970's, and contrary to revisionist history ONLY argued for an Eastern All Sports conference the 2nd go-around (which Pitt scotched - in one of Dave Gavitt's brilliant moves, inviting a woeful Pitt basketball program into the Big East - solely for the purpose of preventing a Big East implosion ... Syracuse, BC, Villanova were all about to leave the Big East for the 2nd effort at creating an Eastern All Sports Conference) when Peen States' non-football programs were having huge problems with being unaffiliated - he had been the architect of vetoing the 1st effort, by Gruninger and Bloustein of RU to put together an Eastern All Sports conference of WVU, PSU, Pitt, RU, Temple, Syracuse, BC and I cannot remember if there was an 8th team or it was just 7 ... but no conference would survive without football, and Pitt and PSU were required for an Eastern football conference.

b) I have no idea what you are talking about in re the Vegas games. I watched all 3 of them. I may even have charted aspects of one of the games after rewatching (can't remember). And there may have been some cases in those games where I criticized the RU players for committing stupid fouls, but I do not remember making a concerted effort of defending refs ... acknowledging RU players committing stupid fouls is not the same as defending refs. Surely, I had some comment about the amount of FT attempts disparity A&M game. Not sure what they were, frankly - hard to believe I defended the refs, per se. Pretty sure I pointed out that Harper's miss at the rim down 2 points at the end was probably a foul that was NOT called.

c) Been a RU season ticket holder in football and basketball in my own name since the 1980's (with my Dad), been attending RU games since the 1960's with my Dad - between him and me we have been consecutive season ticket holders in football and basketball for over 70 years. And have been a member of these various RU message Boards (under a different moniker, though, - just recently took on this moniker) since the original days (with John Otterstedt - what was it called back then, Exit 109? - ditzing ... was a moderator and writer way back then), prefer this Board to the other Board.

But do not let facts get in the way of your opinions!

Thanks, Greene - we do not always agree, of course, but I always look for your posts cuz you have something worthwhile and smart to say.
 
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look I'm not going to search it, but you 100% admitted you didn't watch a game. You said you caught the end. So you're a liar. you told me about the refs being in the final four so you ASSUMED they called a good game based only on that. okay if I'm wrong about you being a PSU fan. and again you 100% defended the refs only based on them being in the final 4 yada yada. Now I do want to find the post where you said you were not watching.
Delete your posts…this is a really good poster.
 
Good analysis, lion.

One thing I want to add that I forgot to include in my abbreviated Rapid Reaction thread — At halftime, I was saying that JMike shouldn’t play in the second half, but Pike sure showed me. JMike played just as much in the 2nd half, and was a key reason we were able to climb back into the game, because he defended and slowed down Chaunce Jenkins (who hurt us in the 1st half). He is also doing better at not forcing things on offense. Of course, that makes it 4 on 5 when we have the ball, but that is off set by the much better defense he has played in the last two games.

Also, I really wish Pike & Co. could figure out a way to get Hayes some shots. I know his defense leads a little to be desired, but we really need him on the floor as a shooter, especially since Martini appears to be unplayable at this point — which is a whole other problem.
 
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If i were Pike this morning the 1st thing I would be looking at is to see what went wrong with the 4-5 baskets that were scored inside in the 2nd half.

Watching the game live without the abiliry to rewind and see the entire court I may wonder if Ogobole should be getting some of Somerville’s minutes. Sometimes, actual often. You can see things differrntly with rewind and slow motion
I was thinking the same thing. I said to my seatmate that the only positive thing about those plays is that they are on tape and we have a week to work on them.
 
look I'm not going to search it, but you 100% admitted you didn't watch a game. You said you caught the end. So you're a liar. you told me about the refs being in the final four so you ASSUMED they called a good game based only on that. okay if I'm wrong about you being a PSU fan. and again you 100% defended the refs only based on them being in the final 4 yada yada. Now I do want to find the post where you said you were not watching.
You have the wrong guy, I think.

There was one game this season where a game on the same network went to OT, and the RU game was joined in progress, and I missed the 1st 7-8 minutes (by clock) of the RU game - a game on CBS Sports Network maybe - I was trying to get it in the CBS app - or maybe on Fox Sports Network and the Fox app. But that was not any of the Vegas games. There also was one game I had to watch on BTN+ - maybe that same game, in fact ... and I charted that game for sure - but the BTN+ replay was missing a 2 minute chunk of the last 4 minutes of the game for reason's unbeknownst - and I KNOW that because I was trying to chart Ogbole's defense for that game - was that the St. John's exhibition game maybe?

But I really know you have the completely wrong guy because I never have ANY idea whether the refs were Final Four refs or not - never pay attention to that, never would, and would never, ever comment on it.

Jeez ... I cannot believe I am even commenting on this crap, hijacking my own thread!!! Sorry to all!
 
You have the wrong guy, I think.

There was one game this season where a game on the same network went to OT, and the RU game was joined in progress, and I missed the 1st 7-8 minutes (by clock) of the RU game - a game on CBS Sports Network maybe - I was trying to get it in the CBS app - or maybe on Fox Sports Network and the Fox app. But that was not any of the Vegas games. There also was one game I had to watch on BTN+ - maybe that same game, in fact ... and I charted that game for sure - but the BTN+ replay was missing a 2 minute chunk of the last 4 minutes of the game for reason's unbeknownst - and I KNOW that because I was trying to chart Ogbole's defense for that game - was that the St. John's exhibition game maybe?

But I really know you have the completely wrong guy because I never have ANY idea whether the refs were Final Four refs or not - never pay attention to that, never would, and would never, ever comment on it.

Jeez ... I cannot believe I am even commenting on this crap, hijacking my own thread!!! Sorry to all!
OKAY OKAY!!! I think you're correct, it was some other lion. SORRY. I'm really a pretty level headed guy.

BACK ON TOPIC!!!!!
 
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RU Pete wants a breakdown and “allocation of fault” for the 4-5 interior breakdowns!

Plus you said Somerville had a food defensive game….i am not so sure. Someone f’d up
 
Okay - back to the game.

Greene - on Ogbole ... I doubt I will rewatch this game (despite Harper's great end-game shot and Bailey's amazing 1st half shot-making, the game was not really worth rewatching - maybe if I get bored this week) ... He just did not stand out in any way to me in this game ... I did forget ot include his name in my comments, which was an oversight. He DID make both his dunks, which is good, both early in the 2nd half as RU began its rally. He just did not eally register other than those dunks and 1 of his 2 rebounds. And Sommerville, did show some decent "wall-up" defense ... getting over the screens is still an issue for him, and he was slow to rotate back to the rim on one of those high screens at least once, allowing an easy dunk. But still, I think Sommerville IS improving defensively - though he still needs more improvement.

Degaz: On Davis - when he is defending on-ball at a high level he is very valuable, offensive shortcomings notwithstanding. For example, he was a real difference maker in the Penn State game, a HUGE part of disrupting Ace Baldwin. And the last 2 games are the defense I expected from him that had not really happened in the prior 9 games for some reason. I do feel a little bit like Charlie Brown with Lucy and the football ... keep hoping Davis will hit some jumpers consistently. Fool's errand, probably.
 
I guess you are making me do it because I am very curious what led to the 4-5 easy inside baskets in the 2nd half. Probably the answer is going to be 2 players contribute to breakdown equally
 
People are whiny bitches because we have two of the best players in American and struggle with Seton Hall. Holloway builds his teams with good athletes who aren’t necessarily good basketball
players. This was evident in waching them play. The created chaos defensively and we struggled to score. We should have curb stomped Seton Hall. We should have stomped Penn State. This is typical pikiel basketball where we play to the level of our competitor, despite having two of the best players possible. Super glad they won, but I’ll admit to being a whiny bitch because we are not very good. It falls on Coach.
 
People are whiny bitches because we have two of the best players in American and struggle with Seton Hall. Holloway builds his teams with good athletes who aren’t necessarily good basketball
players. This was evident in waching them play. The created chaos defensively and we struggled to score. We should have curb stomped Seton Hall. We should have stomped Penn State. This is typical pikiel basketball where we play to the level of our competitor, despite having two of the best players possible. Super glad they won, but I’ll admit to being a whiny bitch because we are not very good. It falls on Coach.
Coach the roster creater or as coach
 
Huh?

a) "lion" refers to my alma mater, Columbia, not Penn State - absolutely HATE Penn St, hate Paterno who was the man who killed an Eastern All Sports conference in the 1970's, and contrary to revisionist history ONLY argued for an Eastern All Sports conference the 2nd go-around (which Pitt scotched - in one of Dave Gavitt's brilliant moves, inviting a woeful Pitt basketball program into the Big East - solely for the purpose of preventing a Big East implosion ... Syracuse, BC, Villanova were all about to leave the Big East for the 2nd effort at creating an Eastern All Sports Conference) when Peen States' non-football programs were having huge problems with being unaffiliated - he had been the architect of vetoing the 1st effort, by Gruninger and Bloustein of RU to put together an Eastern All Sports conference of WVU, PSU, Pitt, RU, Temple, Syracuse, BC and I cannot remember if there was an 8th team or it was just 7 ... but no conference would survive without football, and Pitt and PSU were required for an Eastern football conference.

b) I have no idea what you are talking about in re the Vegas games. I watched all 3 of them. I may even have charted aspects of one of the games after rewatching (can't remember). And there may have been some cases in those games where I criticized the RU players for committing stupid fouls, but I do not remember making a concerted effort of defending refs ... acknowledging RU players committing stupid fouls is not the same as defending refs. Surely, I had some comment about the amount of FT attempts disparity A&M game. Not sure what they were, frankly - hard to believe I defended the refs, per se. Pretty sure I pointed out that Harper's miss at the rim down 2 points at the end was probably a foul that was NOT called.

c) Been a RU season ticket holder in football and basketball in my own name since the 1980's (with my Dad), been attending RU games since the 1960's with my Dad - between him and me we have been consecutive season ticket holders in football and basketball for over 70 years. And have been a member of these various RU message Boards (under a different moniker, though, - just recently took on this moniker) since the original days (with John Otterstedt - what was it called back then, Exit 109? - ditzing ... was a moderator and writer way back then), prefer this Board to the other Board.

But do not let facts get in the way of your opinions!

Thanks, Greene - we do not always agree, of course, but I always look for your posts cuz you have something worthwhile and smart to say.
OMG is this jellyman redux?
 
Coach the roster creater or as coach
A bit of both. Love the top two guys but we are lacking otherwise. I would say more of Coach, and especially on the offensive side of the ball. We would have been blown out in the first half if Ace didn’t create every single shot. We consistently don’t get easy looks, consistently don’t work the ball, never have an offensive flow. It’s not just this year…it’s a consistent problem. On top of that, I’ve never seen a team where guys become worse shooters over time.
 
I have to start by calling out so many posters on this Board as whiny little b***ches. I am sorry, but it is true. I popped onto the Board after the game expecting to see lots of different views on the game, like usual (some critical of some aspects, but some - and more - pleased for the team pulling out a tough, hard-fought victory). What did I find? Multiple threads of complaints, of calling the LOSING coach a better coach than the RU coach, of multiple disparagements of the RU team and of its coaching staff .... I would say the NEGATIVE threads felt like they outnumbered positive or even NEUTRAL threads (and I am not talking about posts within threads, but the starting threads themselves) by at least 3:1, maybe more. Jeez ... RU just WON, for goodness sakes ... in a rock fight ... against a hated local rival ... against a team that very likely at this stage of the season viewed this game as potential redemption for an awful start to their season ... against a team with FOUR top 100 recruits (all of whim had at least 1 season's P5 experience).

To those who argued (and it was at least 4-5 posters) that Holloway is the better coach, please, stop. Pikiell has the far better coaching resume (8 20-win seasons, 8 post-season appearances - 4 to the NCAA - 11 winning records in 19 seasons - and has completely built or rebuilt TWO programs, brought RU to the NCAA for the first time in 29 years with a team of 2 star recruits - and to the NCAA in back to back seasons), has coached his team to back to back wins over SHU, etc., etc., etc. Maybe Holloway is a great coach. But if so, how come his current SHU team is so bad with so many Top 100 recruits? FYI, is Mick Cronin of UCLA suddenly a bad coach because his team went 7-16 FT and only beat a now 4-5 Arizona by 3? If RU goes 20-28 FT - about their now season-average, RU wins by double digits, going away.

Next ... the name of the game is to WIN, to find ways to WIN, even when you are not executing at your best. RU just did that versus SHU (as they did versus Penn State). Yes, RU is still a work in progress, and must continue to improve as a team, and as individual players, if they wish to make the NCAA. But they have now 2 more OOC conference games - in 2 weeks ... so outside of finishing finals, taking a couple of holiday breaks, RU has 17 days (only 2 games in that span) before they hit the road against Indiana - and the real test to see whether RU is an NCAA invite team is undergone.

Next, people should remember: THE OTHER TEAM ALSO PLAYS AND TRIES TO WIN. People on this Board often act as if the other team is supposed to be like the Washington Generals, letting the Globetrotters do whatever they want. In addition, people need to remember that RU's top 2 players are 18-year-old TRUE FRESHMEN, no matter how talented they might be, and that in many cases the opposing team will have their best players as Seniors and Grad transfers - 22- and 23-year-old MEN. Two of SHU's top 3 players were Graduate Transfers, 5th year players, FYI. Against Penn State it was even more pronounced. Get used to it - RU walks into every game with ONE advantage: It is likely to have the 2 most talented players in the game. But that advantage will be offset by a significant DISADVANTAGE: The opposing team's best players are likely to be veterans, 22- and 23-year-old 4th and 5th year players.

One last comment for game specific comments: I have RU just ONE game behind where I expected them. Admittedly, that is a really bad game, the Kennesaw State loss (even if on the road, its a bad loss). The result of every other game is the exact result I projected. RU has 20 remaining games. Of those, I assign RU's remaining games as "Expected Wins" (10 - 8 in conference), "Expected Losses" (4), and "Swing/??" (6 - 2 road, 3 home and MSU at MSG) games. I do expect RU to win the 2 OOC games ... the task for the staff and team would then be to find a way to hold serve on the expected wins, and find a way to win 2 or 3 of the "Swing/??" games. For every game RU loses from the "Expected Win" column of mine, they need to offset with an extra win from either the Expected Loss" or the "Swing" columns.

Now, to the SHU game, specifically:

1) Offense:
SHU gets a lot of credit for two things, specifically, that limited RU's offense: 1) They controlled the PACE of RU's offense through very solid defense - RU had to really work to get any good shots off; and 2) SHU pressured the ball causing a number of RU turnovers - 11 steals by SHU leading to 15 RU turnovers, often doubling the ball and using quick hands to poke away to get into the passing lanes. Oddly enough, I though RU did better against PSU's turnover creating defense than it did against SHU's defense. What may be lost is that RU had 6 turnovers in the 1st 5-7 minutes of the game (to SHU's credit) - but just 9 turnovers the remaining 33-35 minutes of the game. In other words, RU cleaned up its ball handling and passing somewhat. RU ended up with 11 turnovers in the 1st half - just 4 turnovers in the 2nd half.

Because of a combination of turnovers and Harper's 2 fouls, and SHU's ability to set the pace, RU only got 22 FG attempts - and only 1 player was able to be effective .... but here is the advnatage of having 2 major talents - they can sometimes carry the team. Bailey carried RU in that 1st half: 15 points, on 9 of RU's 22 FG attempts, and 7 of RU's 11 FG makes ... Harper had 2 more FG's, for 6 points, and the rest of the team had 2 made FG's in 7 attempts. Was that a failure of the rest of the team, or SHU's credit slowing the game down, and Bailey just taking over. RU had just 2 assists that half - partly because when Bailey takes over, he tends to fo ISO - and no assists, therefore.

The 2nd half, Harper took over hitting 6-8 FG's, scoring 18 points. But he did get a little help from others also: Bailey with 6 points on 2 very important 3's, Derkack with 6 points, Sommerville with 3-4 FT.

The BIGGEST problem with RU's offense versus SHU, in the end, was not even the 15 total turnovers (which were solved in the 2nd half), nort even the lack of shooting attempts from the other players. It was the FT shooting. RU ended up hitting almost 54% of its attempted FG's and 54% from 3 - very good numbers versus a SHU team allowing its opponents to shoot just 40% FG and 29% from 3. The PROBLEM was 13-28 from the FT line ... and especially just 1-8 FT from Bailey (including the front end of a 1 and 1) - 1-8 from one of RU's stars. Bailey should be expected to hit 5-8 or 6-8 ... meaning he should have had 25-26 points, not 21, and RU would likely have won by double digits not a last second shot. Completely unpredictable, and unusual. It did not help that Harper only made 4-7 FT, that Davis missed both of his FT (after starting the year 7-11) or that Martini missed his sole try, the front-end of a 1 and 1. FYI, all the missed FT's also padded SHU's rebounding numbers, adding at least 6 rebounds of missed FT. I know it is small consolation, given the missed FT's, but RU continues to get to the FT line in copious amounts: Yet again, RU MADE more FT's than its opponent ATTEMPTED (well, in this game the same amount. This has been a consistent pattern throughout the season, a positive for RU.

I would add, at one point in the 2nd half, as RU led 59-57, TU had been 8-11 FT (11-20 on the game) - RU went 2-8 FT in the last 3 minutes. The following sequences included: an RU defensive stop, the Davis 0-2 FT, Sommerville 2-2 FT, SHU score, Harper great 12' pull-up, RU defensive stop, Harper 0-2 FT, SHU offensive rebound score, Bailey 0-2 FT, SHU tying score, Harper 3.

2) Defense: So ... RU's defense did some good things, and some not-so-good things. The not so good: Too many points in the paint (36 for SHU), too many easy-ish in-the-lane shots. And, RU was unable to force SHU into many turnovers - just 10 on the game, with just 4 steals. BUT ... RU also really limited SHU's 3-point attempts - perhaps this was intentional (I do not know). I do know SHU was shooting 36% from 3 on the season, but against RU hit just 5-19 (26%). Perhaps this was a deliberate focus of RU, to pressure the 3-point line - but in doing so, gave up some additional interior shots?

Also very good: a) RU committed very few fouls that led to FT's: RU committed just 15 fouls, leading to just 13 FT's; b) RU held SHU's leading scorer to just 8 points, allowing him just 4 FG attempts, and forcing him to commit 4 turnovers ... holding Addae-Wusu, their 3rd leading scorer to hit just 3-10 FG, and though they allowed SHU's 2nd leading scorer to get 15 points, it was on an inefficient 5-14 FG. In fact, SHU's top 3 scorers heading into this game were just 11-28 , combined. RU's defense was not tip top, but was more than adequate. In particular, Harper was solid defensively, and Davis, Williams, Derkack and Sommerville did well defensively, IMO.

3) Rebounding: So ... SHU had 31 rebounds to RU's 30 ... but just 8 offensive rebounds (of their 30 missed shots - under 30% of their misses) - that is a solid job of RU's defensive rebounding. Bailey was effective, with 7, and Williams was great with 7. Derkack had 5. As mentioned above, SHU had 6 of their 31 total rebounds off RU missed FT's - generally a much easier rebound than in game flow. If you exclude rebounds from missed FT's (and RU had 3 off SHU missed FT's, the true "game-flow" rebounding was RU 27, SHU 25 - and SHU is a generally good rebounding team, coming into the game with a +3 per game rebounding edge. Further improvement would be desired, but solid effort, at least.

Players:

1) Harper: Somewhat limited in the 1st half, having to sit down for a chunk (5 minutes, perhaps) with 2 fouls - he did come back with 7 minutes left in the half, and 2 fouls (committed 2 turnovers in the last 7 minutes of the half). Had trouble getting to his spots in the first half, had 3 first half turnovers, was 2-5FG in the first half. But ... well ... superb execution in the 2nd half: 6-8 FG (including 3-4 3-pointers), 3 rebounds, 2 assists, solid defense without fouling (and the 1 foul he was called for sure looked like a great, clean, recovery blocked shot) - and of course the clutch buzzer beating 3. No one can figure out what SHU was doing that last play - letting Harper receive the in-bounds pass uncontested, soft coverage bringing the ball up the court, getting an uncontested (even if long) 3. It is true Harper had an excellent jab step that spun #33 around, freeing him for the truly uncontested shot -0 so Harper deserves some credit for a good move. Even so ... everyone in the arena knew RU wanted the ball in Harper's hands, and even knowing Holloway must have told his team DO NOT FOUL ... how can they not double Harper on the in-bounds pass, to at least try to prevent him from receiving the ball? And the 3 was a beautiful shot: not outrageously long (maybe NBA-distance 3), in perfect form and rhythm. And made.

2) Bailey: If Harper won the game for RU, Bailey gets credit for single-handedly keeping RU in the game in the 1st half, with getting and making good shots, in rhythm, that could not be easily contested ... and making 2 hugely timely 3's in the 2nd Half ... and getting 7 rebounds. On the downside, he was a ridiculously bad 1-8 FT - should have had 25-26 points, not "merely" 21 points. he was also slow getting out to the 3-point line several times when defending Toumi (who hit 2 3's). Still, a good overall game, and scored 21 points om just 15 shots (9-15 FG, 2-3 3-pointers) ... How strange is it to be saying an RU player scored 21 points - and should have much more? Are we already so blase about Bailey and Harper's offensive skills that we tale 20+ point games for granted?

3) Derkack: Not the starter, but off the bench had the 3rd best all around game vs SHU. He did force his sole 3, but otherwise was an okay 2-5 FG, HIT HIS FT's (5-6), scored 9 points, 5 rebounds, a steal and an assist - and high energy defense. Definitely a key player this game. I really like him coming off the bench did have the 5th most minutes.

4) Williams: I thought Williams played really well, though it does not jump out in the box score. He only attempted 2 shots - he did not force ANYTHING into the teeth of SHU's defense. I know he had 3 turnovers, also. But I thought his passing was excellent (the box score said 2 assists, I counted 3, frankly) - when he had the ball the ball kept moving for the most part. he was really looking to set up his teammates. And ... he had 7 rebounds, tied with Bailey for leading rebounder. I thought he also played good defense. I may be wrong (someone should feel free to correct me), but he did cover WUsu and Coleman at times - so Coleman did score 15 - but Wusu and Coleman also combined for 8-22 FG shooting. And Williams had 2 of RU's 4 steals. Additionally, I thought Williams was a stabilizing force for RU.

5) Davis: Yeah, he missed to crucial FT's after being fouled in transition - and had another shot blocked at the rium ... and had 2 TO's, only 1 assist. BUT ... I think he continued to provide the excellent defense he had done versus Penn State - and RU needs him to be the effective on-ball defender he had been last season, that I thought he'd be this season - and until the Penn State game had NOT been. I thought Davis was fine versus SHU - though he had been better versus Penn State.

6) Sommerville: Hit hugely important FT's towards the end (the only RU player to hit any FT's in the last 3 minutes of the game), 3-4 FT on the game. He only had 3 rebounds in 24 minutes, BUT ... despite allowing Okorafor to get 4 offensive rebounds, I felt Sommerville continued to show progress defensively: RU's only blocked shot, solid "wall-up" positional defense, etc. Yes, still room for improvement, but slowly but hopefully surely, getting there.

7) The Rest: Hayes - hit the single 3 he took, but was not open very much, and in a slow-down, fewer possession game like this, when Harper and bailey dominated the ball each half, not that many chances ... Acuff - missed his only 3, which was not a reason to not play, but he did little else and got a DNP in thje 2nd half ... Martini - 8 minutes in the 1st half, zero rebounds, poor defense, missed the front end of a 1 + 1, DNP in the 2nd half.

8) General: Many wanted Pikiell to shorten RU's rotation, well here it is: Starters are Harper, Bailey, Williams, Davis, Ogbole ... primary, every game bench players are Derkack and Sommerville, and MAYBE Hayes ... spot, situational (based on match-ups, foul trouble, specific in-game needs and "hotness" of the player) players: Acuff, Martini and maybe Grant occasionally. There it is: 8-man rotation with Acuff and Martini, and maybe Grant as situational players.
I rewatched Penn State. I had forgotten or not noticed that J Will got dinged on his bad shoulder twice. Makes me rethink his lack of shooting on Saturday.
 
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Lion....got a few for you........

1. Bailey and Harper getting rest at same time in 1st half....thoughts? I see both sides to argument
2. Pike sending pick and roll with the 5.......thoughts on trying with Ace. Pike stopped after ogbole's man stayed to double and swarm Harper. Also didn't help they extended our offense 3-5 feet past where we wanted to be
3. Can Dercack defend the way JMike did the last 2 games? I am thinking not as effective, but the drop off offensively? However it isn't like the opponent fears an open Dercack. I think JaMike's 3 point shot is a few notches below Dercack which is below acceptable.
 
A bit of both. Love the top two guys but we are lacking otherwise. I would say more of Coach, and especially on the offensive side of the ball. We would have been blown out in the first half if Ace didn’t create every single shot. We consistently don’t get easy looks, consistently don’t work the ball, never have an offensive flow. It’s not just this year…it’s a consistent problem. On top of that, I’ve never seen a team where guys become worse shooters over time.

People complain about offense a lot in a year where our scoring is way up (and against some very good teams). The issues with this team are mainly on defense. Even great teams screw the pooch....especially if they rely heavily on freshmen. The Michigan Fab 5 as freshman lost at home to a near bottom dweller 13-18 Wisconsin team.
 
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People complain about offense a lot in a year where our scoring is way up (and against some very good teams). The issues with this team are mainly on defense. Even great teams screw the pooch....especially if they rely heavily on freshmen. The Michigan Fab 5 as freshman lost at home to a near bottom dweller 13-18 Wisconsin team.
Crunched numbers in a totally amateur back of the envelope way.

What does it take to be a #25 on the bart/kenpom?

The differential between adjusted OFF and DEF is .184 for #25

The average eff is 1.063 in D1 basketball

IF you want to be neutral OFF vs DEF

Adjusted off needs to be 1.155 (1.063 +.092)
Adjusted def needs to be .971 (1.063 -.092)

We are currently (preseason bias removed)
OFF 1.139 (hair off 1.155)
DEF 1.038 (full head of hair off of .971)

If we acknowledge we need to be skewed more towards offense based on personnel then we need to improve both.

If we need to be +18.4 I might say we need to be 12.4 better than average on O and 6.0 better on D

Adjusted off would need to be 1.187 (vs 1.139 that we are)
Adjusted D would need to be 1.003 (vs. 1.038)

If we ascribe to the above we actually need to improve offense more than D which would be fuel to the fire of those who want more Hayes and less Davis
 
OMG is this jellyman redux?
I have thought too that lion is a reincarnation of Jellyman. The knowledge, detail, and cadence are very Jellyman-like.

(lion, this is a compliment, as Jelly was revered by most on this board for years, but disappeared from the board about five years ago)
 
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Lion....got a few for you........

1. Bailey and Harper getting rest at same time in 1st half....thoughts? I see both sides to argument
2. Pike sending pick and roll with the 5.......thoughts on trying with Ace. Pike stopped after ogbole's man stayed to double and swarm Harper. Also didn't help they extended our offense 3-5 feet past where we wanted to be
3. Can Dercack defend the way JMike did the last 2 games? I am thinking not as effective, but the drop off offensively? However it isn't like the opponent fears an open Dercack. I think JaMike's 3 point shot is a few notches below Dercack which is below acceptable.
Good questions and noticed situations:

1) I actually noticed that for the first time all season (in the games Bailey has played) both Bailey and Harper were out at the same time - made a note of it in my game notes - as I score, especially watching on TV, also also write down a play by play, with occasional comments. It happened at the 12 minute mark score was RU 5, SHU 9 ... Derkack then went 1-2 FT, but then the score went from 6-9 to 8-16 in like 3 or 4 possessions ... Bailey came back in. - he may have come back with the score 6-14. Do not like it, but they had to rest Bailey for at least a couple of minutes, and Harper had 2 fouls. Pikiell DID bring Harper back with 6-7 minutes left in the hgalf, with his 2 fouls - and RU was fortunate Harper did not foul.

2) Its strange - no one EVER seems to run that high screen with anyone other than a center or post player. For example, last season, I wanted RU to run the high screen with Simpson/Davis, with Griffiths setting the screen - Griffiths being 6'8", and athletic ... from his high school tape I thought he'd be pretty good having the option after setting the screen to slide to the 3-point line, or to roll to the rim, or to rol to the just below foul line for a 12' jumper ... that was before he showed he literally could play no defense at all or hit any type of shot in an actual game. Yeah, I would think Harper and Bailey playing the 2-man screen, or Williams and Bailey - leaving Harper on the wing - might be interesting. I guess the GOAL is to get the opposing center to have to make a choice of drop coverage, or end up being matched up against a guard, either way a potential advantage to the offense's guard ... or if the guard defender fights through the screen, having Harper now have the defender on his back - which is a huge advantage for Harper. I will say this about Ogbole - he does set really good screens, very tough to get through or around.

3) Derkack is a decent defender, more often than not - maybe even above average. He does use his length well to wall off the offensive player. But he is not the on-ball disruptive defender Davis can be - and has been the last 2 games (back to last season's defensive form) ... Just my opinion, of course. Derkack is also very high energy, and an excellent rebounder. In re Derkack's mid-range game: I do not think he has taken a single true mid-range shot this season - or of so, just a handful. He would benefit from doing so, IMO, if he ahs that in his arsenal. It feels like with Derkack it is ALL either 3-point shot or to the rim. In the NEC , with his 6'6" and great jumping ability, he could get away with that, with always going to the rim or posting up. He has not been able to do that consistently at RU, nor against the better P5 teams.
 
Huh?

a) "lion" refers to my alma mater, Columbia, not Penn State - absolutely HATE Penn St, hate Paterno who was the man who killed an Eastern All Sports conference in the 1970's, and contrary to revisionist history ONLY argued for an Eastern All Sports conference the 2nd go-around (which Pitt scotched - in one of Dave Gavitt's brilliant moves, inviting a woeful Pitt basketball program into the Big East - solely for the purpose of preventing a Big East implosion ... Syracuse, BC, Villanova were all about to leave the Big East for the 2nd effort at creating an Eastern All Sports Conference) when Peen States' non-football programs were having huge problems with being unaffiliated - he had been the architect of vetoing the 1st effort, by Gruninger and Bloustein of RU to put together an Eastern All Sports conference of WVU, PSU, Pitt, RU, Temple, Syracuse, BC and I cannot remember if there was an 8th team or it was just 7 ... but no conference would survive without football, and Pitt and PSU were required for an Eastern football conference.

b) I have no idea what you are talking about in re the Vegas games. I watched all 3 of them. I may even have charted aspects of one of the games after rewatching (can't remember). And there may have been some cases in those games where I criticized the RU players for committing stupid fouls, but I do not remember making a concerted effort of defending refs ... acknowledging RU players committing stupid fouls is not the same as defending refs. Surely, I had some comment about the amount of FT attempts disparity A&M game. Not sure what they were, frankly - hard to believe I defended the refs, per se. Pretty sure I pointed out that Harper's miss at the rim down 2 points at the end was probably a foul that was NOT called.

c) Been a RU season ticket holder in football and basketball in my own name since the 1980's (with my Dad), been attending RU games since the 1960's with my Dad - between him and me we have been consecutive season ticket holders in football and basketball for over 70 years. And have been a member of these various RU message Boards (under a different moniker, though, - just recently took on this moniker) since the original days (with John Otterstedt - what was it called back then, Exit 109? - ditzing ... was a moderator and writer way back then), prefer this Board to the other Board.

But do not let facts get in the way of your opinions!

Thanks, Greene - we do not always agree, of course, but I always look for your posts cuz you have something worthwhile and smart to say.
Do you watch Columbia hoops too? That 2016 team that won the CIT was awesome. They should’ve been in the NCAA tournament — total screw job vs Harvard on that offensive foul call last game of the season on Alex Rosenberg
 
If i were Pike this morning the 1st thing I would be looking at is to see what went wrong with the 4-5 baskets that were scored inside in the 2nd half.

Watching the game live without the abiliry to rewind and see the entire court I may wonder if Ogobole should be getting some of Somerville’s minutes. Sometimes, actual often. You can see things differrntly with rewind and slow motion
We were getting schooled on the pick and roll numerous times with Lathan in there
Also disagree with the original poster about Davis he should not be starting and his defense is not excellent it’s adequate at best he’s getting way too many minutes and when he is in we are playing 4v 5 on offense
 
I have to start by calling out so many posters on this Board as whiny little b***ches. I am sorry, but it is true. I popped onto the Board after the game expecting to see lots of different views on the game, like usual (some critical of some aspects, but some - and more - pleased for the team pulling out a tough, hard-fought victory). What did I find? Multiple threads of complaints, of calling the LOSING coach a better coach than the RU coach, of multiple disparagements of the RU team and of its coaching staff .... I would say the NEGATIVE threads felt like they outnumbered positive or even NEUTRAL threads (and I am not talking about posts within threads, but the starting threads themselves) by at least 3:1, maybe more. Jeez ... RU just WON, for goodness sakes ... in a rock fight ... against a hated local rival ... against a team that very likely at this stage of the season viewed this game as potential redemption for an awful start to their season ... against a team with FOUR top 100 recruits (all of whim had at least 1 season's P5 experience).

To those who argued (and it was at least 4-5 posters) that Holloway is the better coach, please, stop. Pikiell has the far better coaching resume (8 20-win seasons, 8 post-season appearances - 4 to the NCAA - 11 winning records in 19 seasons - and has completely built or rebuilt TWO programs, brought RU to the NCAA for the first time in 29 years with a team of 2 star recruits - and to the NCAA in back to back seasons), has coached his team to back to back wins over SHU, etc., etc., etc. Maybe Holloway is a great coach. But if so, how come his current SHU team is so bad with so many Top 100 recruits? FYI, is Mick Cronin of UCLA suddenly a bad coach because his team went 7-16 FT and only beat a now 4-5 Arizona by 3? If RU goes 20-28 FT - about their now season-average, RU wins by double digits, going away.

Next ... the name of the game is to WIN, to find ways to WIN, even when you are not executing at your best. RU just did that versus SHU (as they did versus Penn State). Yes, RU is still a work in progress, and must continue to improve as a team, and as individual players, if they wish to make the NCAA. But they have now 2 more OOC conference games - in 2 weeks ... so outside of finishing finals, taking a couple of holiday breaks, RU has 17 days (only 2 games in that span) before they hit the road against Indiana - and the real test to see whether RU is an NCAA invite team is undergone.

Next, people should remember: THE OTHER TEAM ALSO PLAYS AND TRIES TO WIN. People on this Board often act as if the other team is supposed to be like the Washington Generals, letting the Globetrotters do whatever they want. In addition, people need to remember that RU's top 2 players are 18-year-old TRUE FRESHMEN, no matter how talented they might be, and that in many cases the opposing team will have their best players as Seniors and Grad transfers - 22- and 23-year-old MEN. Two of SHU's top 3 players were Graduate Transfers, 5th year players, FYI. Against Penn State it was even more pronounced. Get used to it - RU walks into every game with ONE advantage: It is likely to have the 2 most talented players in the game. But that advantage will be offset by a significant DISADVANTAGE: The opposing team's best players are likely to be veterans, 22- and 23-year-old 4th and 5th year players.

One last comment for game specific comments: I have RU just ONE game behind where I expected them. Admittedly, that is a really bad game, the Kennesaw State loss (even if on the road, its a bad loss). The result of every other game is the exact result I projected. RU has 20 remaining games. Of those, I assign RU's remaining games as "Expected Wins" (10 - 8 in conference), "Expected Losses" (4), and "Swing/??" (6 - 2 road, 3 home and MSU at MSG) games. I do expect RU to win the 2 OOC games ... the task for the staff and team would then be to find a way to hold serve on the expected wins, and find a way to win 2 or 3 of the "Swing/??" games. For every game RU loses from the "Expected Win" column of mine, they need to offset with an extra win from either the Expected Loss" or the "Swing" columns.

Now, to the SHU game, specifically:

1) Offense:
SHU gets a lot of credit for two things, specifically, that limited RU's offense: 1) They controlled the PACE of RU's offense through very solid defense - RU had to really work to get any good shots off; and 2) SHU pressured the ball causing a number of RU turnovers - 11 steals by SHU leading to 15 RU turnovers, often doubling the ball and using quick hands to poke away to get into the passing lanes. Oddly enough, I though RU did better against PSU's turnover creating defense than it did against SHU's defense. What may be lost is that RU had 6 turnovers in the 1st 5-7 minutes of the game (to SHU's credit) - but just 9 turnovers the remaining 33-35 minutes of the game. In other words, RU cleaned up its ball handling and passing somewhat. RU ended up with 11 turnovers in the 1st half - just 4 turnovers in the 2nd half.

Because of a combination of turnovers and Harper's 2 fouls, and SHU's ability to set the pace, RU only got 22 FG attempts - and only 1 player was able to be effective .... but here is the advnatage of having 2 major talents - they can sometimes carry the team. Bailey carried RU in that 1st half: 15 points, on 9 of RU's 22 FG attempts, and 7 of RU's 11 FG makes ... Harper had 2 more FG's, for 6 points, and the rest of the team had 2 made FG's in 7 attempts. Was that a failure of the rest of the team, or SHU's credit slowing the game down, and Bailey just taking over. RU had just 2 assists that half - partly because when Bailey takes over, he tends to fo ISO - and no assists, therefore.

The 2nd half, Harper took over hitting 6-8 FG's, scoring 18 points. But he did get a little help from others also: Bailey with 6 points on 2 very important 3's, Derkack with 6 points, Sommerville with 3-4 FT.

The BIGGEST problem with RU's offense versus SHU, in the end, was not even the 15 total turnovers (which were solved in the 2nd half), nort even the lack of shooting attempts from the other players. It was the FT shooting. RU ended up hitting almost 54% of its attempted FG's and 54% from 3 - very good numbers versus a SHU team allowing its opponents to shoot just 40% FG and 29% from 3. The PROBLEM was 13-28 from the FT line ... and especially just 1-8 FT from Bailey (including the front end of a 1 and 1) - 1-8 from one of RU's stars. Bailey should be expected to hit 5-8 or 6-8 ... meaning he should have had 25-26 points, not 21, and RU would likely have won by double digits not a last second shot. Completely unpredictable, and unusual. It did not help that Harper only made 4-7 FT, that Davis missed both of his FT (after starting the year 7-11) or that Martini missed his sole try, the front-end of a 1 and 1. FYI, all the missed FT's also padded SHU's rebounding numbers, adding at least 6 rebounds of missed FT. I know it is small consolation, given the missed FT's, but RU continues to get to the FT line in copious amounts: Yet again, RU MADE more FT's than its opponent ATTEMPTED (well, in this game the same amount. This has been a consistent pattern throughout the season, a positive for RU.

I would add, at one point in the 2nd half, as RU led 59-57, TU had been 8-11 FT (11-20 on the game) - RU went 2-8 FT in the last 3 minutes. The following sequences included: an RU defensive stop, the Davis 0-2 FT, Sommerville 2-2 FT, SHU score, Harper great 12' pull-up, RU defensive stop, Harper 0-2 FT, SHU offensive rebound score, Bailey 0-2 FT, SHU tying score, Harper 3.

2) Defense: So ... RU's defense did some good things, and some not-so-good things. The not so good: Too many points in the paint (36 for SHU), too many easy-ish in-the-lane shots. And, RU was unable to force SHU into many turnovers - just 10 on the game, with just 4 steals. BUT ... RU also really limited SHU's 3-point attempts - perhaps this was intentional (I do not know). I do know SHU was shooting 36% from 3 on the season, but against RU hit just 5-19 (26%). Perhaps this was a deliberate focus of RU, to pressure the 3-point line - but in doing so, gave up some additional interior shots?

Also very good: a) RU committed very few fouls that led to FT's: RU committed just 15 fouls, leading to just 13 FT's; b) RU held SHU's leading scorer to just 8 points, allowing him just 4 FG attempts, and forcing him to commit 4 turnovers ... holding Addae-Wusu, their 3rd leading scorer to hit just 3-10 FG, and though they allowed SHU's 2nd leading scorer to get 15 points, it was on an inefficient 5-14 FG. In fact, SHU's top 3 scorers heading into this game were just 11-28 , combined. RU's defense was not tip top, but was more than adequate. In particular, Harper was solid defensively, and Davis, Williams, Derkack and Sommerville did well defensively, IMO.

3) Rebounding: So ... SHU had 31 rebounds to RU's 30 ... but just 8 offensive rebounds (of their 30 missed shots - under 30% of their misses) - that is a solid job of RU's defensive rebounding. Bailey was effective, with 7, and Williams was great with 7. Derkack had 5. As mentioned above, SHU had 6 of their 31 total rebounds off RU missed FT's - generally a much easier rebound than in game flow. If you exclude rebounds from missed FT's (and RU had 3 off SHU missed FT's, the true "game-flow" rebounding was RU 27, SHU 25 - and SHU is a generally good rebounding team, coming into the game with a +3 per game rebounding edge. Further improvement would be desired, but solid effort, at least.

Players:

1) Harper: Somewhat limited in the 1st half, having to sit down for a chunk (5 minutes, perhaps) with 2 fouls - he did come back with 7 minutes left in the half, and 2 fouls (committed 2 turnovers in the last 7 minutes of the half). Had trouble getting to his spots in the first half, had 3 first half turnovers, was 2-5FG in the first half. But ... well ... superb execution in the 2nd half: 6-8 FG (including 3-4 3-pointers), 3 rebounds, 2 assists, solid defense without fouling (and the 1 foul he was called for sure looked like a great, clean, recovery blocked shot) - and of course the clutch buzzer beating 3. No one can figure out what SHU was doing that last play - letting Harper receive the in-bounds pass uncontested, soft coverage bringing the ball up the court, getting an uncontested (even if long) 3. It is true Harper had an excellent jab step that spun #33 around, freeing him for the truly uncontested shot -0 so Harper deserves some credit for a good move. Even so ... everyone in the arena knew RU wanted the ball in Harper's hands, and even knowing Holloway must have told his team DO NOT FOUL ... how can they not double Harper on the in-bounds pass, to at least try to prevent him from receiving the ball? And the 3 was a beautiful shot: not outrageously long (maybe NBA-distance 3), in perfect form and rhythm. And made.

2) Bailey: If Harper won the game for RU, Bailey gets credit for single-handedly keeping RU in the game in the 1st half, with getting and making good shots, in rhythm, that could not be easily contested ... and making 2 hugely timely 3's in the 2nd Half ... and getting 7 rebounds. On the downside, he was a ridiculously bad 1-8 FT - should have had 25-26 points, not "merely" 21 points. he was also slow getting out to the 3-point line several times when defending Toumi (who hit 2 3's). Still, a good overall game, and scored 21 points om just 15 shots (9-15 FG, 2-3 3-pointers) ... How strange is it to be saying an RU player scored 21 points - and should have much more? Are we already so blase about Bailey and Harper's offensive skills that we tale 20+ point games for granted?

3) Derkack: Not the starter, but off the bench had the 3rd best all around game vs SHU. He did force his sole 3, but otherwise was an okay 2-5 FG, HIT HIS FT's (5-6), scored 9 points, 5 rebounds, a steal and an assist - and high energy defense. Definitely a key player this game. I really like him coming off the bench did have the 5th most minutes.

4) Williams: I thought Williams played really well, though it does not jump out in the box score. He only attempted 2 shots - he did not force ANYTHING into the teeth of SHU's defense. I know he had 3 turnovers, also. But I thought his passing was excellent (the box score said 2 assists, I counted 3, frankly) - when he had the ball the ball kept moving for the most part. he was really looking to set up his teammates. And ... he had 7 rebounds, tied with Bailey for leading rebounder. I thought he also played good defense. I may be wrong (someone should feel free to correct me), but he did cover WUsu and Coleman at times - so Coleman did score 15 - but Wusu and Coleman also combined for 8-22 FG shooting. And Williams had 2 of RU's 4 steals. Additionally, I thought Williams was a stabilizing force for RU.

5) Davis: Yeah, he missed to crucial FT's after being fouled in transition - and had another shot blocked at the rium ... and had 2 TO's, only 1 assist. BUT ... I think he continued to provide the excellent defense he had done versus Penn State - and RU needs him to be the effective on-ball defender he had been last season, that I thought he'd be this season - and until the Penn State game had NOT been. I thought Davis was fine versus SHU - though he had been better versus Penn State.

6) Sommerville: Hit hugely important FT's towards the end (the only RU player to hit any FT's in the last 3 minutes of the game), 3-4 FT on the game. He only had 3 rebounds in 24 minutes, BUT ... despite allowing Okorafor to get 4 offensive rebounds, I felt Sommerville continued to show progress defensively: RU's only blocked shot, solid "wall-up" positional defense, etc. Yes, still room for improvement, but slowly but hopefully surely, getting there.

7) The Rest: Hayes - hit the single 3 he took, but was not open very much, and in a slow-down, fewer possession game like this, when Harper and bailey dominated the ball each half, not that many chances ... Acuff - missed his only 3, which was not a reason to not play, but he did little else and got a DNP in thje 2nd half ... Martini - 8 minutes in the 1st half, zero rebounds, poor defense, missed the front end of a 1 + 1, DNP in the 2nd half.

8) General: Many wanted Pikiell to shorten RU's rotation, well here it is: Starters are Harper, Bailey, Williams, Davis, Ogbole ... primary, every game bench players are Derkack and Sommerville, and MAYBE Hayes ... spot, situational (based on match-ups, foul trouble, specific in-game needs and "hotness" of the player) players: Acuff, Martini and maybe Grant occasionally. There it is: 8-man rotation with Acuff and Martini, and maybe Grant as situational players.
Fantastic post.
 
OKAY OKAY!!! I think you're correct, it was some other lion. SORRY. I'm really a pretty level headed guy.

BACK ON TOPIC!!!!!
The guy you are thinking of is Erial_Lion FYI. And he is honestly a good poster as well but he is a Penn State fan and I'm pretty sure he posted about the refs from the Texas A&M game.
 
Crunched numbers in a totally amateur back of the envelope way.

What does it take to be a #25 on the bart/kenpom?

The differential between adjusted OFF and DEF is .184 for #25

The average eff is 1.063 in D1 basketball

IF you want to be neutral OFF vs DEF

Adjusted off needs to be 1.155 (1.063 +.092)
Adjusted def needs to be .971 (1.063 -.092)

We are currently (preseason bias removed)
OFF 1.139 (hair off 1.155)
DEF 1.038 (full head of hair off of .971)

If we acknowledge we need to be skewed more towards offense based on personnel then we need to improve both.

If we need to be +18.4 I might say we need to be 12.4 better than average on O and 6.0 better on D

Adjusted off would need to be 1.187 (vs 1.139 that we are)
Adjusted D would need to be 1.003 (vs. 1.038)

If we ascribe to the above we actually need to improve offense more than D which would be fuel to the fire of those who want more Hayes and less Davis
Good analysis, however the problem I have with all cumulative stats is that they homogenize everything.

For example, we could be a .8 in one game and a 1.6 in another (not even sure if that’s possible, just trying to make a point here) and our offensive efficiency would average out to 1.2, a tournament team (!) and yet we would only be 1-1 and as a .500 team we would not be dancing.

Put in baseball terms, a team could win 21-2 with the whole team going 4-5 from the plate and the next game they get shutout when every guy goes 0-3, and yet the cumulative team batting average would be .500!

The idea is to win games (in any sport). When my baseball team scores 21 runs in one game, I think, what a waste. Sure it pads that stats, which is nice, but I’d rather they scored 7 runs in 3 different games and I like my chances to win all 3 (with decent pitching).
 
I have to start by calling out so many posters on this Board as whiny little b***ches. I am sorry, but it is true. I popped onto the Board after the game expecting to see lots of different views on the game, like usual (some critical of some aspects, but some - and more - pleased for the team pulling out a tough, hard-fought victory). What did I find? Multiple threads of complaints, of calling the LOSING coach a better coach than the RU coach, of multiple disparagements of the RU team and of its coaching staff .... I would say the NEGATIVE threads felt like they outnumbered positive or even NEUTRAL threads (and I am not talking about posts within threads, but the starting threads themselves) by at least 3:1, maybe more. Jeez ... RU just WON, for goodness sakes ... in a rock fight ... against a hated local rival ... against a team that very likely at this stage of the season viewed this game as potential redemption for an awful start to their season ... against a team with FOUR top 100 recruits (all of whim had at least 1 season's P5 experience).

To those who argued (and it was at least 4-5 posters) that Holloway is the better coach, please, stop. Pikiell has the far better coaching resume (8 20-win seasons, 8 post-season appearances - 4 to the NCAA - 11 winning records in 19 seasons - and has completely built or rebuilt TWO programs, brought RU to the NCAA for the first time in 29 years with a team of 2 star recruits - and to the NCAA in back to back seasons), has coached his team to back to back wins over SHU, etc., etc., etc. Maybe Holloway is a great coach. But if so, how come his current SHU team is so bad with so many Top 100 recruits? FYI, is Mick Cronin of UCLA suddenly a bad coach because his team went 7-16 FT and only beat a now 4-5 Arizona by 3? If RU goes 20-28 FT - about their now season-average, RU wins by double digits, going away.

Next ... the name of the game is to WIN, to find ways to WIN, even when you are not executing at your best. RU just did that versus SHU (as they did versus Penn State). Yes, RU is still a work in progress, and must continue to improve as a team, and as individual players, if they wish to make the NCAA. But they have now 2 more OOC conference games - in 2 weeks ... so outside of finishing finals, taking a couple of holiday breaks, RU has 17 days (only 2 games in that span) before they hit the road against Indiana - and the real test to see whether RU is an NCAA invite team is undergone.

Next, people should remember: THE OTHER TEAM ALSO PLAYS AND TRIES TO WIN. People on this Board often act as if the other team is supposed to be like the Washington Generals, letting the Globetrotters do whatever they want. In addition, people need to remember that RU's top 2 players are 18-year-old TRUE FRESHMEN, no matter how talented they might be, and that in many cases the opposing team will have their best players as Seniors and Grad transfers - 22- and 23-year-old MEN. Two of SHU's top 3 players were Graduate Transfers, 5th year players, FYI. Against Penn State it was even more pronounced. Get used to it - RU walks into every game with ONE advantage: It is likely to have the 2 most talented players in the game. But that advantage will be offset by a significant DISADVANTAGE: The opposing team's best players are likely to be veterans, 22- and 23-year-old 4th and 5th year players.

One last comment for game specific comments: I have RU just ONE game behind where I expected them. Admittedly, that is a really bad game, the Kennesaw State loss (even if on the road, its a bad loss). The result of every other game is the exact result I projected. RU has 20 remaining games. Of those, I assign RU's remaining games as "Expected Wins" (10 - 8 in conference), "Expected Losses" (4), and "Swing/??" (6 - 2 road, 3 home and MSU at MSG) games. I do expect RU to win the 2 OOC games ... the task for the staff and team would then be to find a way to hold serve on the expected wins, and find a way to win 2 or 3 of the "Swing/??" games. For every game RU loses from the "Expected Win" column of mine, they need to offset with an extra win from either the Expected Loss" or the "Swing" columns.

Now, to the SHU game, specifically:

1) Offense:
SHU gets a lot of credit for two things, specifically, that limited RU's offense: 1) They controlled the PACE of RU's offense through very solid defense - RU had to really work to get any good shots off; and 2) SHU pressured the ball causing a number of RU turnovers - 11 steals by SHU leading to 15 RU turnovers, often doubling the ball and using quick hands to poke away to get into the passing lanes. Oddly enough, I though RU did better against PSU's turnover creating defense than it did against SHU's defense. What may be lost is that RU had 6 turnovers in the 1st 5-7 minutes of the game (to SHU's credit) - but just 9 turnovers the remaining 33-35 minutes of the game. In other words, RU cleaned up its ball handling and passing somewhat. RU ended up with 11 turnovers in the 1st half - just 4 turnovers in the 2nd half.

Because of a combination of turnovers and Harper's 2 fouls, and SHU's ability to set the pace, RU only got 22 FG attempts - and only 1 player was able to be effective .... but here is the advnatage of having 2 major talents - they can sometimes carry the team. Bailey carried RU in that 1st half: 15 points, on 9 of RU's 22 FG attempts, and 7 of RU's 11 FG makes ... Harper had 2 more FG's, for 6 points, and the rest of the team had 2 made FG's in 7 attempts. Was that a failure of the rest of the team, or SHU's credit slowing the game down, and Bailey just taking over. RU had just 2 assists that half - partly because when Bailey takes over, he tends to fo ISO - and no assists, therefore.

The 2nd half, Harper took over hitting 6-8 FG's, scoring 18 points. But he did get a little help from others also: Bailey with 6 points on 2 very important 3's, Derkack with 6 points, Sommerville with 3-4 FT.

The BIGGEST problem with RU's offense versus SHU, in the end, was not even the 15 total turnovers (which were solved in the 2nd half), nort even the lack of shooting attempts from the other players. It was the FT shooting. RU ended up hitting almost 54% of its attempted FG's and 54% from 3 - very good numbers versus a SHU team allowing its opponents to shoot just 40% FG and 29% from 3. The PROBLEM was 13-28 from the FT line ... and especially just 1-8 FT from Bailey (including the front end of a 1 and 1) - 1-8 from one of RU's stars. Bailey should be expected to hit 5-8 or 6-8 ... meaning he should have had 25-26 points, not 21, and RU would likely have won by double digits not a last second shot. Completely unpredictable, and unusual. It did not help that Harper only made 4-7 FT, that Davis missed both of his FT (after starting the year 7-11) or that Martini missed his sole try, the front-end of a 1 and 1. FYI, all the missed FT's also padded SHU's rebounding numbers, adding at least 6 rebounds of missed FT. I know it is small consolation, given the missed FT's, but RU continues to get to the FT line in copious amounts: Yet again, RU MADE more FT's than its opponent ATTEMPTED (well, in this game the same amount. This has been a consistent pattern throughout the season, a positive for RU.

I would add, at one point in the 2nd half, as RU led 59-57, TU had been 8-11 FT (11-20 on the game) - RU went 2-8 FT in the last 3 minutes. The following sequences included: an RU defensive stop, the Davis 0-2 FT, Sommerville 2-2 FT, SHU score, Harper great 12' pull-up, RU defensive stop, Harper 0-2 FT, SHU offensive rebound score, Bailey 0-2 FT, SHU tying score, Harper 3.

2) Defense: So ... RU's defense did some good things, and some not-so-good things. The not so good: Too many points in the paint (36 for SHU), too many easy-ish in-the-lane shots. And, RU was unable to force SHU into many turnovers - just 10 on the game, with just 4 steals. BUT ... RU also really limited SHU's 3-point attempts - perhaps this was intentional (I do not know). I do know SHU was shooting 36% from 3 on the season, but against RU hit just 5-19 (26%). Perhaps this was a deliberate focus of RU, to pressure the 3-point line - but in doing so, gave up some additional interior shots?

Also very good: a) RU committed very few fouls that led to FT's: RU committed just 15 fouls, leading to just 13 FT's; b) RU held SHU's leading scorer to just 8 points, allowing him just 4 FG attempts, and forcing him to commit 4 turnovers ... holding Addae-Wusu, their 3rd leading scorer to hit just 3-10 FG, and though they allowed SHU's 2nd leading scorer to get 15 points, it was on an inefficient 5-14 FG. In fact, SHU's top 3 scorers heading into this game were just 11-28 , combined. RU's defense was not tip top, but was more than adequate. In particular, Harper was solid defensively, and Davis, Williams, Derkack and Sommerville did well defensively, IMO.

3) Rebounding: So ... SHU had 31 rebounds to RU's 30 ... but just 8 offensive rebounds (of their 30 missed shots - under 30% of their misses) - that is a solid job of RU's defensive rebounding. Bailey was effective, with 7, and Williams was great with 7. Derkack had 5. As mentioned above, SHU had 6 of their 31 total rebounds off RU missed FT's - generally a much easier rebound than in game flow. If you exclude rebounds from missed FT's (and RU had 3 off SHU missed FT's, the true "game-flow" rebounding was RU 27, SHU 25 - and SHU is a generally good rebounding team, coming into the game with a +3 per game rebounding edge. Further improvement would be desired, but solid effort, at least.

Players:

1) Harper: Somewhat limited in the 1st half, having to sit down for a chunk (5 minutes, perhaps) with 2 fouls - he did come back with 7 minutes left in the half, and 2 fouls (committed 2 turnovers in the last 7 minutes of the half). Had trouble getting to his spots in the first half, had 3 first half turnovers, was 2-5FG in the first half. But ... well ... superb execution in the 2nd half: 6-8 FG (including 3-4 3-pointers), 3 rebounds, 2 assists, solid defense without fouling (and the 1 foul he was called for sure looked like a great, clean, recovery blocked shot) - and of course the clutch buzzer beating 3. No one can figure out what SHU was doing that last play - letting Harper receive the in-bounds pass uncontested, soft coverage bringing the ball up the court, getting an uncontested (even if long) 3. It is true Harper had an excellent jab step that spun #33 around, freeing him for the truly uncontested shot -0 so Harper deserves some credit for a good move. Even so ... everyone in the arena knew RU wanted the ball in Harper's hands, and even knowing Holloway must have told his team DO NOT FOUL ... how can they not double Harper on the in-bounds pass, to at least try to prevent him from receiving the ball? And the 3 was a beautiful shot: not outrageously long (maybe NBA-distance 3), in perfect form and rhythm. And made.

2) Bailey: If Harper won the game for RU, Bailey gets credit for single-handedly keeping RU in the game in the 1st half, with getting and making good shots, in rhythm, that could not be easily contested ... and making 2 hugely timely 3's in the 2nd Half ... and getting 7 rebounds. On the downside, he was a ridiculously bad 1-8 FT - should have had 25-26 points, not "merely" 21 points. he was also slow getting out to the 3-point line several times when defending Toumi (who hit 2 3's). Still, a good overall game, and scored 21 points om just 15 shots (9-15 FG, 2-3 3-pointers) ... How strange is it to be saying an RU player scored 21 points - and should have much more? Are we already so blase about Bailey and Harper's offensive skills that we tale 20+ point games for granted?

3) Derkack: Not the starter, but off the bench had the 3rd best all around game vs SHU. He did force his sole 3, but otherwise was an okay 2-5 FG, HIT HIS FT's (5-6), scored 9 points, 5 rebounds, a steal and an assist - and high energy defense. Definitely a key player this game. I really like him coming off the bench did have the 5th most minutes.

4) Williams: I thought Williams played really well, though it does not jump out in the box score. He only attempted 2 shots - he did not force ANYTHING into the teeth of SHU's defense. I know he had 3 turnovers, also. But I thought his passing was excellent (the box score said 2 assists, I counted 3, frankly) - when he had the ball the ball kept moving for the most part. he was really looking to set up his teammates. And ... he had 7 rebounds, tied with Bailey for leading rebounder. I thought he also played good defense. I may be wrong (someone should feel free to correct me), but he did cover WUsu and Coleman at times - so Coleman did score 15 - but Wusu and Coleman also combined for 8-22 FG shooting. And Williams had 2 of RU's 4 steals. Additionally, I thought Williams was a stabilizing force for RU.

5) Davis: Yeah, he missed to crucial FT's after being fouled in transition - and had another shot blocked at the rium ... and had 2 TO's, only 1 assist. BUT ... I think he continued to provide the excellent defense he had done versus Penn State - and RU needs him to be the effective on-ball defender he had been last season, that I thought he'd be this season - and until the Penn State game had NOT been. I thought Davis was fine versus SHU - though he had been better versus Penn State.

6) Sommerville: Hit hugely important FT's towards the end (the only RU player to hit any FT's in the last 3 minutes of the game), 3-4 FT on the game. He only had 3 rebounds in 24 minutes, BUT ... despite allowing Okorafor to get 4 offensive rebounds, I felt Sommerville continued to show progress defensively: RU's only blocked shot, solid "wall-up" positional defense, etc. Yes, still room for improvement, but slowly but hopefully surely, getting there.

7) The Rest: Hayes - hit the single 3 he took, but was not open very much, and in a slow-down, fewer possession game like this, when Harper and bailey dominated the ball each half, not that many chances ... Acuff - missed his only 3, which was not a reason to not play, but he did little else and got a DNP in thje 2nd half ... Martini - 8 minutes in the 1st half, zero rebounds, poor defense, missed the front end of a 1 + 1, DNP in the 2nd half.

8) General: Many wanted Pikiell to shorten RU's rotation, well here it is: Starters are Harper, Bailey, Williams, Davis, Ogbole ... primary, every game bench players are Derkack and Sommerville, and MAYBE Hayes ... spot, situational (based on match-ups, foul trouble, specific in-game needs and "hotness" of the player) players: Acuff, Martini and maybe Grant occasionally. There it is: 8-man rotation with Acuff and Martini, and maybe Grant as situational players.
Your first paragraph is identical to my thoughts after reading all of the negative posts. Was at a party yesterday and could only catch a minute here and there. Finally watched the whole game today, and I loved it! Reminded me of the old Big East physical matchups we faced when we were in that conference. The win was as sweet as any against our in-state rival, and the RAC was rockin!
 
Good analysis, however the problem I have with all cumulative stats is that they homogenize everything.

For example, we could be a .8 in one game and a 1.6 in another (not even sure if that’s possible, just trying to make a point here) and our offensive efficiency would average out to 1.2, a tournament team (!) and yet we would only be 1-1 and as a .500 team we would not be dancing.

Put in baseball terms, a team could win 21-2 with the whole team going 4-5 from the plate and the next game they get shutout when every guy goes 0-3, and yet the cumulative team batting average would be .500!

The idea is to win games (in any sport). When my baseball team scores 21 runs in one game, I think, what a waste. Sure it pads that stats, which is nice, but I’d rather they scored 7 runs in 3 different games and I like my chances to win all 3 (with decent pitching).
I think standard deviations in normal distributions say those single game outcomes barely happen.
 
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