When this happens it tends to be bad (or good) luck that will even out over time. But yes it can happen, that’s why we made the tournament in 2022 when we were #77 in Kenpom and missed in 2023 when we were #39
Post Mortem by Lion - RU vs Seton Hall
- Thread starter lion1983
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When this happens it tends to be bad (or good) luck that will even out over time. But yes it can happen, that’s why we made the tournament in 2022 when we were #77 in Kenpom and missed in 2023 when we were #39
Yes, thanks for mentioning that. Another example is in this SHU game itself. What was the likelihood that a team averaging 74% from the FT line would make only 46% of 28 attempts (including 2 front ends of a 1 and 1)? Yet that’s what happened and we very easily could have lost this game as a result.
Pike should be running pick and roll but pick and pop with Dylan and ACE about 10 times a game. Pike runs it like once per game. ACE I think hit the big 3 the other night. The minute Dylan gets doubled his passing is so good ACE will have an easy look. That is one way to increase the offensive output and you are doing it with your 2 best players and 2 of the best on the floor every night.
Not a fan of resting Dylan and ACE at the same time. You do not remove the offense threats on the floor for the opposition . First time Pike did it and hopefully the last .
The actual answer to this is tricky because there is both uncertainty around their true FT percentages and a team is a collection of individuals all with varying (and uncertain) FT percentages. Both of those factors will increase the variance and make extreme outcomes more likely than the naive calculation will say.
BUT, if you assume that a team is a monolithic entity and that 74% is their true success probability then the odds of making 13 or less in 28 attempts is 0.172%.
If you lower the true success probability to 71% (which is their average post Seton Hall) the odds increase to 0.549%, which demonstrates how sensitive the odds of extreme events can be to small changes in the parameters (the odds increase to >3x from a 3% decrease in FT percentage).
Given that, and the other factors mentioned above I would guess the actual answer to the question is somewhere on the order of 1%.
Given that, and the other factors mentioned above I would guess the actual answer to the question is somewhere on the order of 1%.
Like the pthyagarian record in baseball where it is your expected record given runs scored vs run allowed. Everyone in awhile you get outliers.
1.6 is a tough one to get. Unadjusted its scoring 112 in a 70 possession game (1.6 * 70)
Our offense scores this year….agree about that. Point is our entire offense is from ace and Dylan doing it on their own. Rest of the team is generally not involved in the offense. We don’t create good looks…we just have two great players that create their own shots. Defense is typically good to excellent. This year it is poor. This group does not defend well. We have screwed the pooch too much. I guess kennessW was our fab 5 loss to Wisconsin. But we don’t look good despite having two of the best players around. It’s not a well coached team. Pike is a good guy but he consistently does not get the best out of the group of players he has on the roster.
Dylan and Ace are carrying the load because they are super talented. Aside from that, most of the rest of your post is not what I'm witnessing. Defense and rebounding is improving albeit slowly. This should probably be expected due to having freshman with heavy minutes in the lineup. Every game is different. SHU we went ISO heavy in the 2nd half because SHU nullified our screens and passing lanes in the first half. In other games I've seen guys miss some wide open spot up 3's off of passes.
As far as Pike not getting the most out of his roster....up until this year that has been pretty much his calling card. Working mostly with 3 stars and lesser ranked players.
I love how profanity informs every post or thought you disagree with. Really.
agreed it's very scary on offense with them out. if we do it again i'd like to see us full court press with jmike and jwill up top. make it four minutes of crazy intensity on defense or something.
I think when he did that, he knew he was going to call time out so giving them both an extended breather.
There's no other response worthy of responding to your posts. Most people here think the same thing of you based on your posting history. Sorry but self-awareness sometimes comes in handy.
Much better in my opinion , give ACE two to three minutes at the 13 minute mark and take Dylan out at the 10 minute mark and bring him back at the under 8 after the timeout and then maybe get ACE another blow and steal a minute for Dylan.
In the second half only need in my opinion one break of 2-3 minutes and wrap it ahead of the Tv timeout , under 16, under 12 , under 8.
Sure, everything is run through Ace and Dylan this season. We haven't had any offensive threats like those two since Douby at a minimum. It would be coaching misconduct to run an offense where they are not the dominant shot-takers. Dylan is the conference leader in usage rate at 30.6% (Barnhizer is 2nd at 30.3%) and he is also leading the conference in scoring. Ace is 7th in usage rate.
I think we went heavy ISO against SHU because we were in the holiday spirit too soon in the first half, giving it away 11 times. That's insane. In the second half, we cut that to four. Seton Hall had six steals in the first 5:06! We were 1-4 from the floor in that time period. That's insane. Something had to change. We scored six in the first 10 minutes of the game and 60 in the last 30. I'd say that was the result of a good in-game coaching adjustment. One could fairly criticize the team/staff for the poor play in the first 10 minutes.
I think we went heavy ISO against SHU because we were in the holiday spirit too soon in the first half, giving it away 11 times. That's insane. In the second half, we cut that to four. Seton Hall had six steals in the first 5:06! We were 1-4 from the floor in that time period. That's insane. Something had to change. We scored six in the first 10 minutes of the game and 60 in the last 30. I'd say that was the result of a good in-game coaching adjustment. One could fairly criticize the team/staff for the poor play in the first 10 minutes.
The problem is our press is not great which is surprising with our length. Pressure with JWilliams and JMike to maybe get a 10 second call or reduce the time the other team can get into their offense , sure. But we are giving up too many easy baskets and threes off of the press this year. Yes, I want pressure and JMike if he is going to play , should be asserting even more than he has to date., I want Jeremiah and Jordan to be in the opponent’s jocks so they have a difficult time , which would help our porous paint defense.
or pick spots when the other team is resting their best players too and then slow the game down to as a few possessions as possible.
Press takes discipline and practice, which takes time and maturity. Hard to build that with all new moving parts and next to no carry over from prior season.
Defense will improve as the season wears on, as it's always been a point of emphasis for Pike.
Many comments worth listening to, and responding to. In no particular order:
1) Harper and Bailey on the bench together, for the first time all season: I had not expected that to ever happen - and until the SHU game it had not happened. Pikiell very clearly has a rotation in mind that generally calls for Bailey to be substituted for first, and after a few minutes, Bailey renters the game and Harper sits ... then Harper returns and they both are in together again. I THINK what happened in the SHU game is that Harper got 2 fouls and had to sit - but Bailey had not had a chance to sit yet. So ... though Pikiell DID bring Harper back in the 1st half with 2 fouls, he may not have been sure when or if that was going to happen, and he HAD to give Bailey at least a short blow. So, for a couple of minutes Bailey was out while Harper sat with 2 fouls. I think I referred to this earlier: RU was down 6-9 at the time, and after a few possessions, RU was down 6-14 ... and Bailey came back ... and took over RU's offensive game.
2) In re Why RU went so heavily ISO: Listen to Holloway's post game press conference: . At about the 2 minute mark he was asked about what was different about Harper in the 2nd half vs the 1st half. Holloway specifically stated that SHU's screen defense (i.e. the aggressive doubles) was creating turnovers and problems for RU, and in the 2nd half Harper stopped asking for/running off of, etc., screens, and just went ISO ... that SHU "threw a lot of different stuff" at RU in the 1st half, but in the 2nd half Harper just put his head down. My interpretation of that is that Pikiell and staff had a conversation with the team and Harper at half time, and basically went away from the screening, thus making it more difficult for SHU to double and pressure Harper - allowing Harper to work his will, essentially. FYI: If I thought (and others agreed) that RU fans on this Board can be "whiny b***hes", then you HAVE to listen to Holloway's post game link I just gave. My gosh, what a (and admitted to) a sore loser, low class, whiny b***h Holloway comes across as ... NO ... ZERO credit to RU, or its players, except grudgingly admitting Harper and Bailey are good players, and that RU made plays and SHU did not ... really low class press conference.
3) Running a 2-man game with Harper and Bailey, Bailey setting the screen ... The comment started with Greene suggesting this, pointing out he has seen it with Knueppel and Flagg of Duke. I agree, that'd I'd like to see how that would work, as well. I will say I wonder about how the spacing on the court would look with RU's 2 best offensive players together, drawing all the defenders, sort of - I guess it depends on who else is on the floor with them, eh? Also, I would say that Flagg and Bailey are not really similar players at all, so I wonder if that 2-man game dynamic would work as well.
Flagg is much more of a stretch forward type (that is what they used to call it), has a bigger, stronger body (meaning thicker) than does Bailey ... Bailey is a PURE WF. Flagg is much more of a post player, with traditional post moves - who also can hit the 3 and drive from the 3-point line and baseline. Bailey is NOT a post player at all, and really has no pure post moves. Bailey CAN back down his defender, but then relies almost entirely on a turnaround - with either a step-back or a fadeaway jump shot (which is undefendable because of his elevation). Bailey also appears to be a better pure shooter than Flagg - from the outside - Flagg DOES have a terrifically accurate mid-range game ... as does Bailey. Flagg certainly sets good screens from what I have seen - Bailey? Not so sure, In the PSU game I saw Bailey try to set some off-ball screens for Hayes, amongst other players - not sure they were that effective ... and it also depends on the other player using the screen well.
So, I'd like to see the 2-man screen and roll or screen and slide with Harper and Bailey just to see how it works. But I suspect that since the combo of Bailey and Harper are so very different in strengths and weaknesses and style than Knueppel and Flagg it would not work as well: Knueppel is a pure catch and shoot sniper (yes, he can score in other ways, also, but his best skill is as a sniper). Harper is NOT a "sniper" so top speak ... Bailey is more so of that type - but even so is not what I would call a pure sniper shooter ... he is a shot maker, from all angles, including the catch and shoot or step back 3, but not mainly a long-range sniper.
I guess I rambled a bit with that last part - just trying to feel my way and visualize the play-making as I write it up. Thanks for your patience.
1) Harper and Bailey on the bench together, for the first time all season: I had not expected that to ever happen - and until the SHU game it had not happened. Pikiell very clearly has a rotation in mind that generally calls for Bailey to be substituted for first, and after a few minutes, Bailey renters the game and Harper sits ... then Harper returns and they both are in together again. I THINK what happened in the SHU game is that Harper got 2 fouls and had to sit - but Bailey had not had a chance to sit yet. So ... though Pikiell DID bring Harper back in the 1st half with 2 fouls, he may not have been sure when or if that was going to happen, and he HAD to give Bailey at least a short blow. So, for a couple of minutes Bailey was out while Harper sat with 2 fouls. I think I referred to this earlier: RU was down 6-9 at the time, and after a few possessions, RU was down 6-14 ... and Bailey came back ... and took over RU's offensive game.
2) In re Why RU went so heavily ISO: Listen to Holloway's post game press conference: . At about the 2 minute mark he was asked about what was different about Harper in the 2nd half vs the 1st half. Holloway specifically stated that SHU's screen defense (i.e. the aggressive doubles) was creating turnovers and problems for RU, and in the 2nd half Harper stopped asking for/running off of, etc., screens, and just went ISO ... that SHU "threw a lot of different stuff" at RU in the 1st half, but in the 2nd half Harper just put his head down. My interpretation of that is that Pikiell and staff had a conversation with the team and Harper at half time, and basically went away from the screening, thus making it more difficult for SHU to double and pressure Harper - allowing Harper to work his will, essentially. FYI: If I thought (and others agreed) that RU fans on this Board can be "whiny b***hes", then you HAVE to listen to Holloway's post game link I just gave. My gosh, what a (and admitted to) a sore loser, low class, whiny b***h Holloway comes across as ... NO ... ZERO credit to RU, or its players, except grudgingly admitting Harper and Bailey are good players, and that RU made plays and SHU did not ... really low class press conference.
3) Running a 2-man game with Harper and Bailey, Bailey setting the screen ... The comment started with Greene suggesting this, pointing out he has seen it with Knueppel and Flagg of Duke. I agree, that'd I'd like to see how that would work, as well. I will say I wonder about how the spacing on the court would look with RU's 2 best offensive players together, drawing all the defenders, sort of - I guess it depends on who else is on the floor with them, eh? Also, I would say that Flagg and Bailey are not really similar players at all, so I wonder if that 2-man game dynamic would work as well.
Flagg is much more of a stretch forward type (that is what they used to call it), has a bigger, stronger body (meaning thicker) than does Bailey ... Bailey is a PURE WF. Flagg is much more of a post player, with traditional post moves - who also can hit the 3 and drive from the 3-point line and baseline. Bailey is NOT a post player at all, and really has no pure post moves. Bailey CAN back down his defender, but then relies almost entirely on a turnaround - with either a step-back or a fadeaway jump shot (which is undefendable because of his elevation). Bailey also appears to be a better pure shooter than Flagg - from the outside - Flagg DOES have a terrifically accurate mid-range game ... as does Bailey. Flagg certainly sets good screens from what I have seen - Bailey? Not so sure, In the PSU game I saw Bailey try to set some off-ball screens for Hayes, amongst other players - not sure they were that effective ... and it also depends on the other player using the screen well.
So, I'd like to see the 2-man screen and roll or screen and slide with Harper and Bailey just to see how it works. But I suspect that since the combo of Bailey and Harper are so very different in strengths and weaknesses and style than Knueppel and Flagg it would not work as well: Knueppel is a pure catch and shoot sniper (yes, he can score in other ways, also, but his best skill is as a sniper). Harper is NOT a "sniper" so top speak ... Bailey is more so of that type - but even so is not what I would call a pure sniper shooter ... he is a shot maker, from all angles, including the catch and shoot or step back 3, but not mainly a long-range sniper.
I guess I rambled a bit with that last part - just trying to feel my way and visualize the play-making as I write it up. Thanks for your patience.
We ran pick and pop in Vegas and it worked. Suprised as heck that Pike hasn’t run it more with Dylan and ACE. Should be doing it 10 times a game and when wing defender comes off to get Bailey , AcE gives it to PJ or Acuff in the corner to bury the 3. That will play out positively more times than not.
IIRC, they both come out closer to 4-5 mins left in the 1st before his last time out. Went to a defensive lineup. Might have been 1-2 possessions.
I also like what we did sometimes with Cliff where he would come up to set the screen but then quickly reverse and cut to the basket. Keeps the defender from going all out on the quick double.
I went back in looked at some of Jelly's old posts and he did like to capitalize things. Also he in one post referenced playing pickup BB in NY and lion is a Columbia lion.
I think it is 50/50 Jellyman is lion.
Good work
found a jelly post. jelly circa 2018 = lion 2024?
BTW Shack and I were right about Issa
rutgers.forums.rivals.com
@S_Janowski ha ha ha ha
BTW Shack and I were right about Issa
Matt Bullock and Souf Mensah to leave program
Will Souf graduate? Not likely from Rutgers in the immediate future - but it does not appear to be an immediate priority for him at this time. Disclaimer - we have no idea what kind of student he is & has been at RU - or any where else - and no idea as to how many credits he -on paper - had...
rutgers.forums.rivals.com
It's him. I have agreed a lot with lion1983 so why would he say we do not always agree if he wasn't talking about the past.
What does lion1983 think of Deshawn Freeman?
found a jelly post. jelly circa 2018 = lion 2024?
BTW Shack and I were right about Issa
@S_Janowski ha ha ha haMatt Bullock and Souf Mensah to leave program
Will Souf graduate? Not likely from Rutgers in the immediate future - but it does not appear to be an immediate priority for him at this time. Disclaimer - we have no idea what kind of student he is & has been at RU - or any where else - and no idea as to how many credits he -on paper - had...
I saw Issa and was afraid to read.
At least I wasn’t the only one wrong about him haha. Hard to play good D when you get wrapped up in domestic violence.
Apologies :)
put my name in the search thread......plenty of material to kill me with. I hope you don't find me calling Caleb's defense slightly above average or our defense was going to be decimated losing Eugene Omoruyi.
I think it shows that the team stinks but thank god we have two greats. A well coached team does not come out of the gate and shut the bed like RU did. I love what Dylan and ace can do and they will enable us to be a decent team this year. But a good coach would help the role players play a supporting role…and ultimately make us a good team. We have some amazing talent and yet get our asses whooped by seton hall out of the gate. Sucks as a fan that we are wasting the season where we have two lottery picks on our side.
Is he in the witness protection program? Usernames should follow posters. I liked Jelly's posts. Was it the shitty play or something else that stopped the posts?
I was wondering about Dylan's usage rate. With his high points per possession, the usage rate needs to be higher if we don't speed up. I don't care that it is the highest in the league. I'd like to see us speed up to get Dylan and Ace more shots.
Anyone know Dylan's PPP and how it compares nationally? Good chance he's been the highest in every game this year for the team.
I was wondering about Dylan's usage rate. With his high points per possession, the usage rate needs to be higher if we don't speed up. I don't care that it is the highest in the league. I'd like to see us speed up to get Dylan and Ace more shots.
Anyone know Dylan's PPP and how it compares nationally? Good chance he's been the highest in every game this year for the team.
