Putting our current record into perspective

[RUich]

We all know that every P5 program starts the season with primarily a slew of cup cakes. Yes, our OOC schedule is very soft and we have done pretty well by beating all 8 of them so far. This is the plan to get some kind of winning concept before starting our BIG schedule which will certainly be more challenging. As any sport, the early rankings can be all over the place and have little resemblance to what the final numbers will look like.
However, every BIG team is pretty much doing the same thing and we have already seen some of them get caught flatfooted here and there. Again, so far, we have not.
I decided to take a look at one of our former league opponents to see how it compares.
We all remember Syracuse. Well, they are currently ranked (no surprise there) and are sporting a 5-3 record. Their schedule is certainly more challenging than ours, but they have lost all three of their games to name programs. Two of them pretty badly, South Carolina by 14 and Wisconsin by 17. The other was to UCONN which is not having a great season so far and is actually ranked at number 221!
All of their wins are against teams currently ranked 74, 176, 223 and 333. The other win was to North Florida who I could not find but lost to Miami by 38. So, their wins were to pretty soft programs too!

So, we all expect things to get a lot tougher in league play. But, we have already surpassed last year's total wins and anything can happen. Stop worrying about what happens when we start the league, maybe some of the BIG teams should be worrying about Rutgers. [cheers]

 

[RUChoppin]

We all know that every P5 program starts the season with primarily a slew of cup cakes. Yes, our OOC schedule is very soft and we have done pretty well by beating all 8 of them so far. This is the plan to get some kind of winning concept before starting our BIG schedule which will certainly be more challenging. As any sport, the early rankings can be all over the place and have little resemblance to what the final numbers will look like.
However, every BIG team is pretty much doing the same thing and we have already seen some of them get caught flatfooted here and there. Again, so far, we have not.
I decided to take a look at one of our former league opponents to see how it compares.
We all remember Syracuse. Well, they are currently ranked (no surprise there) and are sporting a 5-3 record. Their schedule is certainly more challenging than ours, but they have lost all three of their games to name programs. Two of them pretty badly, South Carolina by 14 and Wisconsin by 17. The other was to UCONN which is not having a great season so far and is actually ranked at number 221!
All of their wins are against teams currently ranked 74, 176, 223 and 333. The other win was to North Florida who I could not find but lost to Miami by 38. So, their wins were to pretty soft programs too!

So, we all expect things to get a lot tougher in league play. But, we have already surpassed last year's total wins and anything can happen. Stop worrying about what happens when we start the league, maybe some of the BIG teams should be worrying about Rutgers. [cheers]

B1G teams should be worrying about Rutgers far more than they did last year, that's for certain. This is a team that can jump up and bite them if they aren't on their game, which is great to see.

To put things in a little more perspective, here are the B1G teams by Sagarin rank, including their record and strength of schedule.

13 Wisconsin (8-2) SOS: 79
14 Purdue (7-2) SOS: 94
17 Indiana (7-1) SOS: 310
29 MIchigan (7-2) SOS: 88
33 Northwestern (6-2) SOS: 100
36 MSU (6-4) SOS: 14
44 Minnesota (8-1) SOS: 108
46 Ohio State (7-2) SOS: 316
66 Maryland (8-1) SOS: 146
74 Illinois (6-3) SOS: 122
83 Nebraska (4-4) SOS: 12
108 Rutgers (7-1) SOS: 350
113 Iowa (4-5) SOS: 273
123 PA St (6-4) SOS: 180

So, we do have the easiest schedule of the bunch (350 out of 351), but Ohio State (316), Indiana (310), and Iowa (273) are also pretty pillow soft.

 

[socaldave]

19-20 wins this year

 

[higgins3]

Absolutely. Pikiell has put his team in good position. Also, his crootin will be a little easier. My initial guess was 14 wins, now I think its 15.

BUY BUY BUY

 

[goru7]

B1G teams should be worrying about Rutgers far more than they did last year, that's for certain. This is a team that can jump up and bite them if they aren't on their game, which is great to see.

To put things in a little more perspective, here are the B1G teams by Sagarin rank, including their record and strength of schedule.

13 Wisconsin (8-2) SOS: 79
14 Purdue (7-2) SOS: 94
17 Indiana (7-1) SOS: 310
29 MIchigan (7-2) SOS: 88
33 Northwestern (6-2) SOS: 100
36 MSU (6-4) SOS: 14
44 Minnesota (8-1) SOS: 108
46 Ohio State (7-2) SOS: 316
66 Maryland (8-1) SOS: 146
74 Illinois (6-3) SOS: 122
83 Nebraska (4-4) SOS: 12
108 Rutgers (7-1) SOS: 350
113 Iowa (4-5) SOS: 273
123 PA St (6-4) SOS: 180

So, we do have the easiest schedule of the bunch (350 out of 351), but Ohio State (316), Indiana (310), and Iowa (273) are also pretty pillow soft.

Choppin, how have the conference teams with better strength of schedule done in the games against better teams. I know Wisconsin played Creighton and North Carolina but they got blown out by both. Ru would likely be as well. But are they beating the higher rated teams than we have played by wide margins or in close games. My initial recollection is Maryland is 66 with a strength of schedule of 146 but almost everyone of their games is a life and death struggle and a few involved coming from behind by 7-10 with a few minutes to play.

 

[RUChoppin]

Choppin, how have the conference teams with better strength of schedule done in the games against better teams. I know Wisconsin played Creighton and North Carolina but they got blown out by both. Ru would likely be as well. But are they beating the higher rated teams than we have played by wide margins or in close games. My initial recollection is Maryland is 66 with a strength of schedule of 146 but almost everyone of their games is a life and death struggle and a few involved coming from behind by 7-10 with a few minutes to play.

Sagarin is less impacted by last year than kenpom is, but it's still carrying a bit of last year's data along with it - it's not showing just 2016-17 in a vacuum, just yet.

Algorithm based rankings are also based on expectation vs. result... so, if it was expecting Wisconsin to beat Oklahoma and Syracuse by single digits, and they beat them by 20 and 17, that's going to improve their ranking. Just as when we lost to Miami by just 12, it improved our ranking, but when we beat Hartford by just 2 it lowered our ranking. Ohio State has a very bad SOS, but they did play #7 Virginia hard on UVA's court, losing by just 2... which is giving them some credit with computers.

Early season, have to take a lot of the sagarin/kenpom stuff with a bit of a grain of salt... there's a lot of movement early, because the preseason inputs are based on last year, and they take some time to shake out entirely. I think someone said mid-Jan before they're gone completely. Also, OOC games are frequently against very low ranked teams, which are hard to get a bead on (they're not always uniformly bad, but frequently just really inconsistent - if all the parts align one night (see: Hartford), they can surprise someone ranked 100 places higher than them in the computer, but usually that doesn't happen).

 

[goru7]

Sagarin is less impacted by last year than kenpom is, but it's still carrying a bit of last year's data along with it - it's not showing just 2016-17 in a vacuum, just yet.

Algorithm based rankings are also based on expectation vs. result... so, if it was expecting Wisconsin to beat Oklahoma and Syracuse by single digits, and they beat them by 20 and 17, that's going to improve their ranking. Just as when we lost to Miami by just 12, it improved our ranking, but when we beat Hartford by just 2 it lowered our ranking. Ohio State has a very bad SOS, but they did play #7 Virginia hard on UVA's court, losing by just 2... which is giving them some credit with computers.

Early season, have to take a lot of the sagarin/kenpom stuff with a bit of a grain of salt... there's a lot of movement early, because the preseason inputs are based on last year, and they take some time to shake out entirely. I think someone said mid-Jan before they're gone completely. Also, OOC games are frequently against very low ranked teams, which are hard to get a bead on (they're not always uniformly bad, but frequently just really inconsistent - if all the parts align one night (see: Hartford), they can surprise someone ranked 100 places higher than them in the computer, but usually that doesn't happen).

That makes a lot of sense. We will have to wait a little longer to get the more accurate data for this year's teams. But also by mid January we should be able to have seen these teams in conference go at it. Some teams match up better than others.

 

[Terry_2426]

Yes, the schedule has been crazy soft but I'm ok with that. This team has 5 wins right now under EJ (IMO)--Pikiell has them playing so much better and things that never happened in the past, like rebounding, has drastically improved. Play the cupcakes, win the games you're supposed to and the rest will follow in due time.

 

[RUBigFrank]

thought Sagarin carried prior year till five games .

 

[RUsince52]

Might be easier games, but it rewarded the fans and brought back excitement to MBB. The RAC is back !!!

 

[RU-ROCS]

Need shots to start falling to really have any chance against the top half of the Big10. Hopefully we're saving it for league play.

 

[RUChoppin]

thought Sagarin carried prior year till five games .

Maybe? I don't know how far it goes, to be honest. It's pretty clear that kenpom is still much more swayed by last year than Sagarin is, though.

 

[TMCB]

We were ranked lower than teams on our soft schedule last yr

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

Already exceeded last year's win total. How high can we go?

 

[Dpgru]

With the exception of Minnnesota, who was a mess at the end of last year, every other BIG team is putting out a product that is an extension of last years team. As are most teams in the country. Teams each year lose some players and get a few new ones but have a basic core of experienced returning players. RU is putting out an entirely new product. Yes, we have some returning vets but this is essentially a totally, and I mean totally, new team. They have played a grand total of nine game together and are still very much learning this new system and style of play. I do not know how much better they can get but I believe there is room for tremendous growth. I am not expecting an elite NC caliber team so do not misunderstand my point but I actually do not know how many games to expect us to win. Some of you say 15, okay, why? Why not 17, or 13. None of us know how this team will play as they improve their chemistry, timing, rhythym, and execution. They have shown great improvement from game to game thus far. I hope it continues for the whole season, I can't see a reason why it won't but, I don't know. I will, however, enjoy finding out. And, I will expect that we have a shot at winning each game we play and victory or defeat will surprise me. We are a work in progress, thus far excellent progress.