Recruiting rankings vs. actual performance

[cubuffsdoug]

Got this from a Penn St. site. Tons of information and it shows Pike coached up his players to outperform their rankings. The over/under (last number listed) is off the charts for Rutgers players. This is why I think people don't understand Rutgers is a dangerous team in the B1G. Pike gets more from his players than the majority of the league. Here is a breakdown of each class as they performed last year. I believe Rutgers will continue to over-perform and shock the league again with even better results.
links to better understand: freshmen- https://www.answerminer.com/calculators/correlation-test?id=4b3e0e9dec08c013 1
sophomores- https://www.answerminer.com/calculators/correlation-test?id=1f7fb59dd9fcf96a
juniors- https://www.answerminer.com/calculators/correlation-test?id=b41c9f3bd59ccbae 1
seniors-https://www.answerminer.com/calculators/correlation-test?id=b513f847097c6342

Freshmen School PRPG! 247 Rank - National 247 Rank - Big 10 Only Actual Performance (PRPG!) - Big 10 class Over / Under perform 247 Rank - Big 10
1 Giorgi Bezhanishvili Illinois 2.58004 370 42 7 +35
2 Gabe Kalscheur Minnesota 2.54444 198 33 8 +25
3 Rasir Bolton Penn St. 2.00941 206 34 12 +22
4 Myles Johnson Rutgers 1.23989 335 37 18 +19
5 Caleb McConnell Rutgers 1.04054 334 36 21 +15
6 Myles Dread Penn St. 2.03208 164 25 11 +14
7 Ron Harper Jr. Rutgers 1.5675 176 28 14 +14
8 Aaron Wheeler Purdue 1.41117 169 27 16 +11
9 Trevion Williams Purdue 1.73253 155 23 13 +10
10 Kobe King Wisconsin 0.8547 197 32 23 +9
11 Brady Heiman Nebraska 0.443121 340 39 31 +8
12 Justin Ahrens Ohio St. 0.558519 249 35 30 +5
13 Joe Wieskamp Iowa 3.63205 60 7 3 +4
14 Aaron Henry Michigan St. 1.56201 141 19 15 +4
15 Connor McCaffery Iowa 1.3407 152 21 17 +4
16 Amir Harris Nebraska 0.173348 355 41 37 +4
17 Ricky Lindo Maryland -0.14108 476 43 39 +4
18 Ignas Brazdeikis Michigan 3.96676 40 4 2 +2
19 Duane Washington Jr. Ohio St. 0.852203 168 26 24 +2
20 Romeo Langford Indiana 3.96945 7 1 1 0
21 Daniel Oturu Minnesota 2.60682 50 6 6 0
22 Sasha Stefanovic Purdue 0.0931728 337 38 38 0
23 Ryan Greer Northwestern -0.635721 341 40 41 -1
24 Jalen Smith Maryland 3.51191 16 2 4 -2
25 Ayo Dosunmu Illinois 3.14111 32 3 5 -2
26 Eric Ayala Maryland 2.16375 78 8 10 -2
27 Myreon Jones Penn St. 0.438153 180 29 32 -3
28 Aaron Wiggins Maryland 2.25124 42 5 9 -4
29 Rob Phinisee Indiana 0.986424 136 18 22 -4
30 Thomas Kithier Michigan St. 0.711875 162 24 28 -4
31 Alan Griffin Illinois 0.337007 185 30 34 -4
32 Tevian Jones Illinois 1.05849 119 15 20 -5
33 Serrel Smith Jr. Maryland 0.574504 154 22 29 -7
34 Montez Mathis Rutgers 0.844878 135 17 25 -8
35 Luther Muhammad Ohio St. 1.1069 79 9 19 -10
36 Jarvis Omersa Minnesota -0.690201 196 31 42 -11
37 Gabe Brown Michigan St. 0.810979 101 12 26 -14
38 Jaedon LeDee Ohio St. 0.743501 103 13 27 -14
39 Eric Hunter Jr. Purdue 0.254276 151 20 35 -15
40 Foster Loyer Michigan St. 0.371536 96 11 33 -22
41 Miller Kopp Northwestern 0.237196 116 14 36 -22
42 Damezi Anderson Indiana -0.714766 125 16 43 -27
43 Pete Nance Northwestern -0.2225 88 10 40 -30

Sophomores School PRPG! 247 Rank - National 247 Rank - Big 10 Only Actual Performance (PRPG!) - Big 10 class Over / Under perform 247 Rank - Big 10
1 Matt Haarms Purdue 3.58299 352 25 5 +20
2 D’Mitrik Trice Wisconsin 2.78158 333 24 8 +16
3 Luka Garza Iowa 3.71387 118 15 4 +11
4 Geo Baker Rutgers 1.72006 414 27 16 +11
5 Xavier Tillman Michigan St. 3.84786 112 13 3 +10
6 John Harrar Penn St. 1.35199 501 28 18 +10
7 Bruno Fernando Maryland 4.245 87 8 1 +7
8 Peter Kiss Rutgers 0.822725 501 28 21 +7
9 Isaiah Livers Michigan 2.69969 133 16 10 +6
10 Trent Frazier Illinois 3.103 109 12 7 +5
11 Aljami Durham Indiana 1.44262 230 22 17 +5
12 Kaleb Wesson Ohio St. 3.89875 75 5 2 +3
13 Jordan Poole Michigan 3.36986 93 9 6 +3
14 Jamari Wheeler Penn St. 0.51164 391 26 24 +2
15 Trent Buttrick Penn St. 0.458448 501 28 26 +2
16 Anthony Gaines Northwestern 1.23896 189 20 19 +1
17 Brad Davison Wisconsin 2.55362 108 11 11 0
18 Thomas Allen Nebraska 2.22047 103 10 13 -3
19 Nana Akenten Nebraska 0.816642 187 19 22 -3
20 Thorir Thorbjarnarson Nebraska 0.0769041 501 28 31 -3
21 Kyle Young Ohio St. 2.33451 80 7 12 -5
22 Da’Monte Williams Illinois 0.618543 177 18 23 -5
23 Nojel Eastern Purdue 2.74147 69 3 9 -6
24 Aleem Ford Wisconsin 0.157012 320 23 30 -7
25 Eli Brooks Michigan 0.195928 201 21 29 -8
26 Darryl Morsell Maryland 1.83271 74 4 15 -11
27 Eric Curry Minnesota 0.477567 114 14 25 -11
28 Musa Jallow Ohio St. 0.308732 149 17 28 -11
29 Nate Reuvers Wisconsin 1.9781 66 2 14 -12
30 Justin Smith Indiana 1.08043 78 6 20 -14
31 Isaiah Washington Minnesota 0.345023 62 1 27 -26

Juniors School PRPG! 247 Rank - National 247 Rank - Big 10 Only Actual Performance (PRPG!) - Big 10 class Over / Under perform 247 Rank - Big 10
1 Jordan Bohannon Iowa 3.50968 312 25 7 +18
2 Eugene Omoruyi Rutgers 2.94081 501 28 11 +17
3 Andres Feliz Illinois 1.93219 501 28 15 +13
4 Carsen Edwards Purdue 6.20421 118 12 2 +10
5 Jon Teske Michigan 3.53069 142 14 6 +8
6 Lamar Stevens Penn St. 4.12459 98 10 4 +6
7 Isaiah Moss Iowa 1.90744 248 21 16 +5
8 Evan Boudreaux Purdue 1.87266 264 22 17 +5
9 Ryan Kriener Iowa 1.3438 317 26 21 +5
10 Shaq Carter Rutgers 1.26141 501 28 23 +5
11 Andre Wesson Ohio St. 1.70644 274 23 19 +4
12 Anthony Cowan Jr. Maryland 4.16263 62 6 3 +3
13 Johnny Trueblood Nebraska 0.543321 501 28 26 +2
14 Cassius Winston Michigan St. 6.79752 31 2 1 +1
15 Isaiah Roby Nebraska 2.90087 133 13 12 +1
16 Amir Coffey Minnesota 3.94979 49 5 5 0
17 Devonte Green Indiana 1.71975 197 18 18 0
18 Zavier Simpson Michigan 3.27011 67 7 8 -1
19 Tyler Cook Iowa 3.21588 72 8 9 -1
20 Kipper Nichols Illinois 1.00787 282 24 25 -1
21 Kyle Ahrens Michigan St. 1.35836 166 17 20 -3
22 Maishe Dailey Iowa 0.044315 332 27 31 -4
23 Brevin Pritzl Wisconsin 2.18337 94 9 14 -5
24 Nick Ward Michigan St. 2.98608 42 4 10 -6
25 A.J. Turner Northwestern 1.14625 154 16 24 -8
26 Michael Hurt Minnesota 0.298323 216 19 27 -8
27 Issa Thiam Rutgers 0.1273 237 20 30 -10
28 Joshua Langford Michigan St. 2.89651 19 1 13 -12
29 Barret Benson Northwestern 0.226036 151 15 29 -14
30 Aaron Falzon Northwestern 0.244101 114 11 28 -17
31 De’Ron Davis Indiana 1.27313 40 3 22 -19

Seniors School PRPG! 247 Rank - National 247 Rank - Big 10 Only Actual Performance (PRPG!) - Big 10 class Over / Under perform 247 Rank - Big 10
1 Grady Eifert Purdue 4.2503 501 24 6 +18
2 Dererk Pardon Northwestern 4.50477 300 18 4 +14
3 Ryan Cline Purdue 4.72105 159 13 1 +12
4 C.J. Jackson Ohio St. 2.7423 501 24 12 +12
5 Kenny Goins Michigan St. 2.63086 501 24 13 +11
6 Ethan Happ Wisconsin 4.63481 152 12 3 +9
7 Tanner Borchardt Nebraska 2.2314 501 24 16 +8
8 Jordan Murphy Minnesota 4.1695 167 14 7 +7
9 Nicholas Baer Iowa 2.12887 501 24 18 +6
10 James Palmer Jr. Nebraska 4.71992 105 6 2 +4
11 Juwan Morgan Indiana 4.40533 117 8 5 +3
12 Ryan Taylor Northwestern 1.43196 501 24 23 +1
13 Khalil Iverson Wisconsin 1.92581 319 19 19 0
14 Shaquille Doorson Rutgers 0.843009 394 22 24 -2
15 Glynn Watson Jr. Nebraska 3.70134 76 4 9 -5
16 Aaron Jordan Illinois 2.49471 118 9 14 -5
17 Vic Law Northwestern 2.9656 89 5 11 -6
18 Keyshawn Woods Ohio St. 1.5953 266 16 22 -6
19 Charles Thomas IV Wisconsin 0.398392 380 21 27 -6
20 Brock Stull Minnesota -0.26525 479 23 29 -6
21 Zach McRoberts Indiana -0.692556 501 24 30 -6
22 Isaac Copeland Jr. Nebraska 3.76496 24 1 8 -7
23 Matt McQuaid Michigan St. 3.61657 71 3 10 -7
24 Evan Fitzner Indiana 0.704604 290 17 25 -8
25 Adonis De La Rosa Illinois 0.122303 379 20 28 -8
26 Josh Reaves Penn St. 2.2313 106 7 17 -10
27 Dupree McBrayer Minnesota 1.6963 138 11 21 -10
28 Mike Watkins* Penn St. 1.85228 122 10 20 -10
29 Matz Stockman Minnesota 0.597263 205 15 26 -11
30 Charles Matthews Michigan 2.46113 60 2 15 -13

* Alone among all listed, Mike Watkins’s class adjusted for redshirt.

 

[BillyC80]

Good stuff, thanks for posting. Pike and his coaches have excelled at:
1) Finding under the radar talent
2) Developing that talent
3) Instilling a competitive work ethic
4) Emphasizing defense and rebounding
5) Getting them to play focused, team ball
We have a very good to great coach in Pike. Now with a more balanced scoring attack with multiple shooters, the wins will come in greater numbers.

 

[knights1212]

I think this is quite impressive.

 

[ScarletR30]

Very interesting stuff here. Besides RU, there are alot of Purdue players near the top of those lists. I think Painter is going to establish himself as a top 5 coach after this year because he has that mix of 5 stars and development.

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

Very interesting stuff here. Besides RU, there are alot of Purdue players near the top of those lists. I think Painter is going to establish himself as a top 5 coach after this year because he has that mix of 5 stars and development.

Painter is tremendous

 

[Silvers88]

This data suggests that Pike is doing a great job coaching up his recruits (I think most would agree with this) but perhaps even more apparent is how low the recruiting has been at RU; we trail in recruit rating by a country mile as compared to the next lowest school (PSU). So Pike coaches up poorly rated (spectacularly poorly rated) classes to be relatively mediocre performers relative to our conference mates. Painter, the next best overachieving coach compared to Pike, takes relatively low rated classes and turns them in to top level (top 3) performers; the real target for RU.

This is the challenge for Pike; substantially increase his recruiting while still coaching them up to out-perform their recruiting ranking and leapfrog into the top half of the conference. I am reasonably confident that recruiting will improve under Pike in the next year or so (perhaps slowly but I think surely), will the coaching continue to positively develop these more talented recruits? And will Pike be able to sustain superior player development as his current staff moves on to better jobs (this has already started)?

I am hopeful for the future and think Pike can do it but I don't expect miracles.

And please don't take this post as critical or unappreciative of our current players; the recruit ratings/rankings are what they are but these guys are working hard and improving on the court and are great representatives of RU student athletes.