Rutgers basketball: Is Jamichael Davis the point guard of the future?

[Scangg]

Anybody fit that description last year?
Asking for a friend? And that guy shot better from three and almost twice as good from the line? Bueller? Bueller?

Give it up already loving Simpson’s high volume historically bad shooting

 

[fluoxetine]

That 34% is heavily influenced by going 4-7.
Remove it and its back to 6-22 (27.2%) over the prior 10 games.
Projecting him to maintain at his literal peak seems a little unlikely.

I agree with the last line but this thing people do where they're like "if you take out the good game(s) this guy is bad" is.. not how stats work.

 

[Tango Two]

 

[NickRU714]

I agree with the last line but this thing people do where they're like "if you take out the good game(s) this guy is bad" is.. not how stats work.

I agree.
However, if you look at his game logs 4/7 is an extreme outlier.
He never made more than 2 in a game previously. 2/4 was his best game.

Now, it may turn out to not be an outlier and he does build upon it going forward (I like my earlier idea of make him shoot a couple early 3s and if he makes any then keep shooting or stop all together).
But for now, it would be reasonable to consider excluding it to me.

Cam Spencer went 0-5 from 3 against Temple. But was 7-14 in the first 3 games of the year.
It would have been reasonable to consider that an extreme outlier (based on his prior years and first games with Rutgers) when projecting forward and exclude it from the analysis.
He ended the year at 43% shooting from 3.

 

[RedTeam1994]

He has had two really nice games, plus he was great against the press in the UCLA game. But beyond that, we have seen a lot of subpar play from him. It’s a positive sign his recent games, but not ready yet to say he is the RU starting point guard of the future. Let’s see how he finishes out the season in a larger sample size and if he can continue to maintain the improved level of play.

^ this comment is far too reasonable for this board ^

 

[bac2therac]

He has had two really nice games, plus he was great against the press in the UCLA game. But beyond that, we have seen a lot of subpar play from him. It’s a positive sign his recent games, but not ready yet to say he is the RU starting point guard of the future. Let’s see how he finishes out the season in a larger sample size and if he can continue to maintain the improved level of play.

Post of the thread

 

[Scangg]

I agree with the last line but this thing people do where they're like "if you take out the good game(s) this guy is bad" is.. not how stats work.

Except no one is saying he will maintain his "peak" from last game and shoot over 50% from 3

 

[Scangg]

He has had two really nice games, plus he was great against the press in the UCLA game. But beyond that, we have seen a lot of subpar play from him. It’s a positive sign his recent games, but not ready yet to say he is the RU starting point guard of the future. Let’s see how he finishes out the season in a larger sample size and if he can continue to maintain the improved level of play.

People acting like these were his only 2 good games this season must have missed some games

 

[fluoxetine]

I agree.
However, if you look at his game logs 4/7 is an extreme outlier.
He never made more than 2 in a game previously. 2/4 was his best game.

Now, it may turn out to not be an outlier and he does build upon it going forward (I like my earlier idea of make him shoot a couple early 3s and if he makes any then keep shooting or stop all together).
But for now, it would be reasonable to consider excluding it to me.

Cam Spencer went 0-5 from 3 against Temple. But was 7-14 in the first 3 games of the year.
It would have been reasonable to consider that an extreme outlier (based on his prior years and first games with Rutgers) when projecting forward and exclude it from the analysis.
He ended the year at 43% shooting from 3.

I don't agree with this at all tbh. 3 point shooting is a relatively low success endeavor even for good shooters. Even if you completely ignore hotness/coldness etc, a 40% shooter will go 0 out of 5 roughly 8% of the time. A 30% shooter will hit 4 or more out of 7 roughly 13% of the time. Those are not extreme outliers at all. And even if they were it's not obvious why you would exclude them unless you had some external explanation for why they shot well or poorly on a specific day. I might be willing to exclude a poor day if someone is sick or hurt, for example.

Except no one is saying he will maintain his "peak" from last game and shoot over 50% from 3

True but they are still cherry picking the point where he started playing better.

 

[NickRU714]

Except no one is saying he will maintain his "peak" from last game and shoot over 50% from 3

The "peak" was referring to his overall 3pt% of 34% - which being proposed as a level her could maintain.
He jumped from 27% to 34% in one game and now it's "can he maintain 34% for a whole season?"
He hasn't maintained it for 1 game.

"The question would be strictly on whether he can maintain the trend line of shooting 34% over 30 to 35 games next year, with more shot attempts."

 

[NickRU714]

I don't agree with this at all tbh. 3 point shooting is a relatively low success endeavor even for good shooters. Even if you completely ignore hotness/coldness etc, a 40% shooter will go 0 out of 5 roughly 8% of the time. A 30% shooter will hit 4 or more out of 7 roughly 13% of the time. Those are not extreme outliers at all. And even if they were it's not obvious why you would exclude them unless you had some external explanation for why they shot well or poorly on a specific day. I might be willing to exclude a poor day if someone is sick or hurt, for example.


True but they are still cherry picking the point where he started playing better.

Ok sure.

Luckily we have the rest of the season to see if Davis maintains at 34% 3pt shooting as originally presented.

 

[fluoxetine]

Ok sure.

Luckily we have the rest of the season to see if Davis maintains at 34% 3pt shooting as originally presented.

Well that's not my argument, he's 18/70 career.

A completely naive 95% confidence interval for his true percentage is roughly 16%-37.5%.

I would guess his 3 point percentage going forward at 31%. (random ass but educated guess)

 

[Scangg]

The "peak" was referring to his overall 3pt% of 34% - which being proposed as a level her could maintain.
He jumped from 27% to 34% in one game and now it's "can he maintain 34% for a whole season?"
He hasn't maintained it for 1 game.

"The question would be strictly on whether he can maintain the trend line of shooting 34% over 30 to 35 games next year, with more shot attempts."

Low 30s is very reasonable and would be decent enough if he can play D and have a high assist to TO ratio

 

[NickRU714]

Davis with the steal and coast to coast.
Looking good so far.