BB Recruiting Rutgers Basketball lands 2025 sharpshooting Bosnian wing Harun Zrno
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TBF, Oscar's final year in Sweden he avg'ed 6.2 pts and 3 8 reb, 1 ast in 14 minutes. Huge difference in roles on team between Palmquist & Zrno. He's only avg'ing 8-9 pts back there now.
Oskar Palmquist, Basketball Player, Stats, Height, Age | Proballers
All the stats of Oskar Palmquist during his basketball career. And information about his date of birth, age, height, games, teams, teammates, shoots...www.proballers.com
Zrno is playing 31 mins/gm.
Right - things are quietly shaping up a bit. Something similar could be said of the comparisons to Noah Fernandez production in the A-10 to Buchanan’s. One thing worth noting is that as a frosh, Noah barely played. You don’t average 15.6 ppg and 6.6 rpg as a frosh in a conference at the A-10 level if your not able to play at a high level. The A-10 isn’t the BIG but it’s a real conference. Buchanan has talent.
Now if we could get one more established player to close out the roster things would get really interesting.
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I think getting top Euros is a good plan. Illinois got a point guard from the Adriatic League where he is a 22 year old MVP candidate. His price was still high ($1,000,000+) but less expensive than a similarly talented American player out of the portal.
Illinois is all in on Euros. Of the 12 scholarship players on the roster, 5 are Euros. Two from Croatia, 1 from Montenegro, 1 from Serbia, and the 5th grew up in the States but was born in Greece and his dad is a former NBA player from Serbia.
All five have last names that end in “ic.”
It's rare that new staffs recruit holdovers. There were bigger names and players that Indiana didnt bother to keep, so it wasn't ghosting as much as staffs want a clean slate if they can waste the NIL money and buy a new roster. There was a 5* SF who couldn’t get on the court for Indiana and went to Washington that I'm sure they should have kept around.
All things considered Zrno is a player that RU stuck around in the recruiting process and it pays off. Whether it Aundre Hyatt, Baye Fall or now Zrno, I'm glad this worked out and we jumped in and sealed this up.
Stoyakovic was a player that I thought UNC was going to land, but he went with the new Illini crew.
Pike did nothing with 2 of the top 3 picks in the NBA draft
A ero sharp shooter isn’t going to bring glory to the banks especially under Pike who can’t run a shooters offense
Agree. My reaction is more about the comparison to the "sharp shooter" we got who shot this.TBF, Oscar's final year in Sweden he avg'ed 6.2 pts and 3 8 reb, 1 ast in 14 minutes. Huge difference in roles on team between Palmquist & Zrno. He's only avg'ing 8-9 pts back there now.
Oskar Palmquist, Basketball Player, Stats, Height, Age | Proballers
All the stats of Oskar Palmquist during his basketball career. And information about his date of birth, age, height, games, teams, teammates, shoots...
Zrno is playing 31 mins/gm.
| Season | Team | Conf | Class | Pos | G | GS | MP | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | Rutgers | Big Ten | FR | F | 12 | 0 | 60 | 2 | 10 | .200 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021-22 | Rutgers | Big Ten | SO | F | 15 | 0 | 90 | 5 | 11 | .455 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022-23 | Rutgers | Big Ten | JR | F | 21 | 2 | 194 | 12 | 33 | .364 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023-24 | Rutgers | Big Ten | SR | F | 28 | 2 | 304 | 11 | 37 | .297 | ||||||||||||||||||||
I'm hopefull but no longer buying any of the hype around this program.
Exactly. Pike needs playmakers on offense to make his system work. Who can we toss the ball to with 10 seconds on the shot clock to make something happen? A relatively stationary sharp shooter is great but Pike is not the coach to maximize that talent.
Martini shot 36.2%. That's higher than his career total and only very slightly down from 37.3% the previous year.
Hell Palmquist shot 33% which is not "sharpshooter" but he only got up 91 attempts in his entire career here which is the real problem.
The probability of a true 37% shooter going 30/91 or worse is almost 25% (24.732% - https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial#google_vignette); the evidence that Palmquist got here and forgot how to shoot is slim. The issue is he wasn't good enough at anything else to get the opportunity to take a lot of shots.
The probability of a true 37% shooter going 30/91 or worse is almost 25% (24.732% - https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial#google_vignette); the evidence that Palmquist got here and forgot how to shoot is slim. The issue is he wasn't good enough at anything else to get the opportunity to take a lot of shots.
Pike didn’t manage the situation well. In fact, he gets an F. That said, the “situation” last year causing the failure is completely unrelated to the future or past of Pike’s tenure (aka - having a team adopt a religion of sorts where 2 star players should be options 1 and 2 with a clear goal of getting them the ball doesn’t always work out). I see it fail all the time at the youth level. Sometimes it’s actually counter productive to have other proven (but inferior iso players). I know that sounds crazy but certain types of kids quietly excel at being complements to good players. We only sought out one kid like that in Martini and he didn’t have a true position at the BIg level. Thats why we failed.
We don’t run great offense but Cam Spencer got his points as a shooter playing for Pike. I don’t think it’s out of the question that Zrno could supply his 13 ppg. And actually - I also feel pretty good about the chance of Buchanan being more productive on offense than anyone on that 2022-23 team was other than Cam and Cliff. I love Caleb - but he wasn’t scoring 15.6 ppg ever (and certainly not as a frosh) in the A-10 and nowhere near Buchanan’s efficiency level that frosh season. FWIW - Caleb only broke 15 points in a game 8 times in 5 seasons.
So when you start looking at it this way, things don’t seem so bad… We have Cliff’s offense (13 ppg) to make up - but Dean and Wolf added next to nothing there (17 ppg across all 3). If Ogbole and Fall can each give us 6-7 and Ware or Dortch give us 2-4 in scrap minutes at the 5 we’d be right there.
Going down the line - it’s realistic to think J-Mike can replace Derek’s offense on that team. When you look at the rest of that team’s offense it was Paul (not really a scorer), Mag (part of the season only) and Hyatt (who didn’t have a good year at all). Among Grant, the frosh, Bryce and whoever we bring in with our last scholly - if we can match that offense and be good on D, we may not be as bad as everyone expects.
In Euro pro ball - where is the 3 point line? I keep thinking back to Chop’s comments about Caleb the year they moved the college line back and think it might explain GG’s issues. It’s not a lock that perimeter stats from HS will transfer because the line is further back and some guys sweet spot might be at a place that now becomes an inefficient long range 2.
I’m not sure HS stats are reliable indicators but maybe Euro is?
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I found very little difference in the games of Martini and Palmquist, which was why people got mad at me last year when I said he was Palm's replacement. Look at their per 40 numbers Palms last year and Martini last. 10 pts for OP, 9.5 for Martini, 5.3 boards to 4.5. 1.2 assists for each. Palm also w higher steals and slightly higher blocks. Martini probably a slightly better shooter, but not sure OP ever got consistent enough PT to get into rhythm's.
Euro seems to be the same distance as NCAA
To be fair - Oskar is actually a good role player too. Like Martini. That position / role wasn’t really the problem. If we had 2019-20 MJ and Paul (2022-23) instead of Lathan and Acuff we would’ve had a much better team despite having less offensive weapons.
It’s the defense, but more so than that the offense would’ve run smoother with kids who were comfortable playing a complement role. I think that was actually a pretty big problem talent aside. Acuff and Lathan were used to being go to players. Some guys aren’t as effective at being complements. Acuff in particular was better when Dylan was not in with him.
Awesome. This is a hugely important distinction in my opinion from frosh recruits.
Regarding Caleb / HS vs college / etc, overall 3p% only went from 34.4% => 33.3% when they moved the line back. I guess it's possible that some people are good from 20.75 feet but bad from 21.5 feet but I think it's pretty unlikely.
Caleb's good freshman season was (broken record alert) a very small sample. A true 26.4% shooter (his career percentage) will go 20/56 or better 8% of the time. When you combine
(a) getting a little (but not tremendously) worse when moving back and
(b) the fact that his injuries seemed to impact his shooting
I think it's more likely that he was just hot his freshman year and not that he dropped from 36% to like 25% just from the line moving back less than one foot.
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The difference between highschool and NCAA is larger so it makes more sense there but I still think it would be pretty rare that a great shooter from 19.9ft is terrible from 22. My guess is that Gavin, for example, could still make them at a fairly high clip from the college 3-point line.. if he got to play against the defenses he faced in high school.
Caleb's good freshman season was (broken record alert) a very small sample. A true 26.4% shooter (his career percentage) will go 20/56 or better 8% of the time. When you combine
(a) getting a little (but not tremendously) worse when moving back and
(b) the fact that his injuries seemed to impact his shooting
I think it's more likely that he was just hot his freshman year and not that he dropped from 36% to like 25% just from the line moving back less than one foot.
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The difference between highschool and NCAA is larger so it makes more sense there but I still think it would be pretty rare that a great shooter from 19.9ft is terrible from 22. My guess is that Gavin, for example, could still make them at a fairly high clip from the college 3-point line.. if he got to play against the defenses he faced in high school.
In 2018-19 the NCAA line was closer in. That’s what Chop always pointed out, Caleb was 35.7% from 3 as a frosh. Then when they moved the line back never broke 28% again.
Caleb took about the same number of 3s every year.
Interesting take. I think I am in roughly the same place as you ... though I got there slightly differently.
I AM feeling much better now with the Zrno commitment. Whether he is capable or not, we won't know until he plays for RU. But he was close to EXACTLY what Pikiell need to add: A 2G with length who can score both in mid-range and from 3 (like Spencer did).
I come to hope from a slightly different angle ... predicated on whether Pikiell can get the team to play defense the way RU did in 2022-23 and 2023-24. So much will depend on whether the "roll the dice" Fall can provide rim protection on help and post defense without fouling too much, and whether Ogbole can make a few small strides. Obviously, defensively, there is no McConnell - and Mulcahy was great with help defense (of course Omoruyi provided the rim protection, and the post defense in 2022-23 - no post defense in 2023-24, just rim protection).
IF ... Pikiell can get the team to the defense first performance, the grind it out rock fight defense, and get the team to hold its opponents to 67 ppg or fewer ... then a lot becomes possible, at least. In that case, RU finding 68 - 69 ppg could be a .500 record ... or with a little luck on in which games RU can score a little MAYBE even a bubble team.
BUT ... it depends on the defense coming back, PLUS the following potential scoring breakdown:
Zrno - 14 ppg
Buchanan - 11-12 ppg
Grant - 10-11 ppg
Davis - 8 ppg
Combo of Nwuli, Mark, Francis - 18 ppg - 5-7 ppg each
Combo Fall/Ogbole - 8 ppg
Combo Powers, Ware and 13th player - 5 ppg?
That is 74 ppg - so probably too high ... so someone or combo of someones probably won't score as much as I laid out. Zrno? Grant? Buchanan?
The 2022-23 team only had 2 double digit scores, both at 13 ppg: Spencer and Omoruyi. McConnell was 3rd with 9 ppg. That was a 19-15 team that probably should have been in the NCAA, but wasn't - and would have been in the NCAA if Mag had not gotten hurt. Was definitely a bubble team, though.
For perspective, the 2022-23 team averaged 68.5 ppg, holding opponents to 61 ppg - yet had a worse record than the 2-21-22 team which averaged 68.5 ppg holding opponents to 66 ppg. That 2021-22 team had 3 double digit scorers: Harper at 16 ppg, Baker at 12.5 ppg (but rather inconsistent) and Omoruyi at 12 ppg. The 2023-24 team only scored 65.4 ppg, giving up 66.5 ppg ... though technically they had 3 double digit scorers, one was Williams at 12.5 ppg - but only for 12 games. Other than him, RU's top 2 scorers were each at 10.5 ppg. What that tells me is:
1) If you play defense and hold the opponents under 67 ppg (which Pikiell knows how to do if he gets the right players), then you MUST find a way to 67-69 ppg to have a better than .500 record and be on the bubble.
2) And 2 players at 11 ppg as your top 2 scorers ain't gonna allow that to happen. So RU NEEDS at least 1 player to step up to 13-15 ppg, plus 2 other at 10 - 11 ppg.
You are referring to Peja Stojakovic's kid. Peja was one of my favorite guys to watch in the league.
Wow. 74 points from a roster where I’d argue doesn’t have one quality B1G starter running Pike’s “offense” seems about 20% or so too high to me. Only Davis, Grant and Ogbole have even played against B1G defense before, and not with great success. Also, lots of freshmen (and not the Ace/Dylan type….and don’t forget the turnovers a player like Francis brings.
Right, that's what I was talking about in the first part of my post. From 18-19 => 19-20 the total NCAA 3p% dropped 1.1%. While the impact will obviously differ from player to player I think it's unlikely that it was most of the explanation for the huge drop in Caleb's 3p%. I agree it was probably a contributing factor though.
My guess would be that it probably impacted the types of players who like to take longer 2s more than others.
Brad underwood leaning HARD into being a Euro pipeline
Love him as a coach and love that he’s getting creative with the portal and recruiting when he may not have the resources to get the top American kids either
I was a big Zach fan and he was mis-used. Have a hard time believing he was brought here to rebound and play the 5. That's the same deal with Oskar.
So when I say "something happens" I don't necessarily mean the player themselves. "sharp Shooters" taking half the number from the season prior or 30-35 for the season is a joke. Shooters have to shoot, be set up, etc. Not jump from playing the 5 to being in whatever offense we run under this guy.
How many kick-outs can you count with EO and LS, etc.
If Pike didn't think he needed the offense then he should have focused on defensive players (old news).
In order to get a guy like Martini shots, you need a Dylan or an Ace or a Lathan, not to mention a JWIll and Acuff to give up shots. All of them want theirs too and the Martini's and Oskar's of the world don't force issues.
Yeah ... I noticed that when I added it all up. Obviously that is not going to happen. I know RU won't score 74 ppg with this line-up - probably not even 70 ppg. The question is, where do the deductions come from? The top end (from Zrno, Buchanan, Grant), or much less from the other players. I also fogot about Dortch - obviously not a huge scorer, though - or even a good scorer.
If I had to guess, one thing that will happen is that RU plays at a much slower pace than last season - pace is one way to limit the opposition from scoring (slower pace, fewer offensive possessions for both teams).
So ... maybe a recast EXTREMELY EARLY recast:
Zrno - 13 ppg
Buchanan - 11 ppg
Grant - 10 ppg
Davis - 8 ppg
Center Position (Fall + Ogbole) - 7 ppg (plus 10 rpg)
Nwuli/Francis/Mark - 17 ppg (6 ppg each, but a range of 5 ppg to 7 ppg for any one individual)
Dortch - 3 ppg
Powers/Ware/13th player from the portal - probably not play in every game - 1-2 ppg
That is 69-70 ppg. Better?
RU's lowest offensive output under Pikiell has been 65-65.5 ppg, in 3 seasons: His 1st 2 seasons, plus 2023-24.
FYI, until LAST season, the 2024-25 season, Pikiell's HIGHEST defensive points allowed team was his 3rd season at RU, 68.8 ppg ... next worst was 2020-21, at 67.7 ppg allowed - an NCAA team at 16-12, scored 69 ppg. All other Pikiell's RU teams (other than 2024-25, 2020-21 and 2018-19) allowed 67.1 ppg or fewer.
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Hence the difference between team offense and what he runs. 1 less force by each means 4 more attempts. And if it is ok to play hero ball then no need for a guy like Zzch or Oscar so get your defensive and rebounder guy.
Ogbole scored 9.3 points per 40, and 10.2 per 40 the prior season (yes a very small sample). I know he’s not great but I don’t see any scenerio where we don’t combine for at least 9 points from the center position.
If I had to set a spread right now it I would put each of them in for 5 ppg in 20 min split down the middle.
Why do you think the 13th player is going to be a deep bench piece? I really doubt that and while I wish Francis would’ve been saved for last based on the unique connection (would’ve liked to use what was needed to get who we wanted and then make a package for him) - would have to imagine that we’ll throw the house of what remains at our last pick up. No?
While I agree that RU will spend whatever is left on this last portal player, I don't think there is much left.
Start with $3 million revenue sharing, $1 million from Vegas, $1 million from NIL - totals $5 million.
$1.5 million or so spent of retention and freshmen. Leaves $3.5 million.
BUT ... it has been reported that the Vegas money is split equally amongst scholarship players - some have said that was not the case, but more and better sources indicated it was spread evenly. So that $1 million is really $77K per player.
That then leaves just $2.5 million for portal players. Some sources indicate Francis got $400k - or more ... and Buchanan around that as well, maybe. Sure, all speculation.
That leaves $1.6 to $1.7 million - and I figure that is the MOST RU had left before Fall and Zrno.
HAVE to believe Fall got AT LEAST $500K - maybe more.
And HAVE to believe, even if Villanova viewed a guy like Zrno as a reserve, while RU will need him to start, if RU is outbidding Villanova (which is apparently what happened), I figure he HAD to cost at least $750K. In another thread someone speculated $500K for Zrno based on Illinois paying a top Serbian or Bosnian prospect who is 18 years old $1 million. I suspect RU paid more than $500K. And maybe more than $750K.
If lucky, RU MAY have $300K to $400K left ... maybe ... but maybe less.
If I am wrong, and RU has $500K left, then they could get a 15 - 20 mpg guy maybe, not a deep reserve. On the other hand, you and I think it is better for RU to play less than 15 mpg - maybe less than 10-12 mpg ... and RU paid over $400K for that ... I consider a 10 mpg guy as potentially a "deep reserve" who may not get 10 mpg in many games, as potentially a situational reserve to provide offensive or defensive spark off the bench.
I guess I hope I am wrong and RU has more than that $$ left. On the other hand, if I AM wrong - I would have spent the money differently - much more for a top line 2G, rather than a bit of a gamble like Zrno - though I DO like the Zrno pick-up.
It's not the offense, a ZM or OP will almost always only shoot in optimal conditions. Wide open, off a pass that puts them in shooting motion. They aren't doing anything to create additional space, ect. You can't get them 4 more shots wo a bunch more playing time. Martini shot every 4-5 minutes at Princeton as option 3 and every 5 at Ru as option 5.
Pikiell does have to prove it. He lost the benefit of the doubt after squandering last season.
🤣
I understand fantasy can be exciting
The Truth sux, especially for Pike and RU basketball
Sucking as bad as last season has consequences
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