I agree with 99.9% of what you said but I can't buy I to the expected 10 wins. First, it's very difficult to expect any team to win 10 games, especially one without way more talent than their peers. Second, going into the season Arkansasw as penciled in as a lost by pretty much everyone. They had a QB people though could go in the 1st round, a winning coach, on the road, and the mythical SEC persona. Obviously, none of that turned out true but pundits didn't know that at the time.
Fair enough. I considered putting 9-10 wins there, and then deleted and left 10. I personally expected 10, and have often commented that it was unfortunate for Flood, because he was basically starting off his tenure as HC in a year when the expectations were literally impossible to exceed. He could either win the conference like everyone expected from that team or come up short. Had Schiano stayed for 2012, I think the overwhelming majority of fans would've wanted him fired if he failed to win the conference. As it wound up, Flood split the baby, technically winning the conference, but the team missed on two chances for an outright championship.
The schedule was:
Tulane
Howard
USF
Arkansas
UConn
Syracuse
Temple
Kent State (L)
Army
Cinci
Pitt (L)
Louisville (L)
I expected losses to Arkansas and Louisville. I am not sure what other game would be properly penciled in as a loss from that schedule, but I do agree that without a clear talent advantage it is unfair to expect a team to win 10 "should win" games. That is the disadvantage of playing a really weak schedule. Hard to outperfrom, easy to "underperform."