We are now a third of the way through the season. We have played comparable teams relative to last year (Washington State and Penn State each year, Norfolk vs. Howard, and Kansas vs. Navy).
Offensive Stats:
31.8 points per game vs. 30.0 points a year ago. +1.8 points per game
211.0 rushing yards per game vs. 177.5 a year ago. +33.5 yards per game
226.0 passing yards per game vs. 228.0 a year ago. -2.0 yards per game
6.1 yards per play vs. 6.2 yards per play a year ago. -0.1 yards per play
50% 3rd down conversion rate (23/46) vs. 42.3% a year ago (22/52). +7.7% higher
8 fumbles/5 lost vs. 4 fumbles/2 lost a year ago. 3 more lost fumbles vs. a year ago
5 interceptions vs. 6 interceptions a year ago. 1 less interception vs. a year ago
6 sacks allowed for 54 yards vs. 5 sacks allowed for 37 yards. 1 more sack allowed, 17 more yards
Defensive Stats
392 yards allowed per game vs. 435 per game a year ago. 43 yards per game improvement
23.0 points allowed per game vs. 25.0 points allowed a year ago. -2.0 points allowed per game
6.1 average yards allowed per play vs. 6.1 yards per play a year ago. No change in yards allowed/play
3 interceptions vs. 3 interceptions. No change in interceptions.
0 fumble recoveries vs. 3 fumble recoveries a year ago. 3 fewer fumble recoveries
33% 3rd down conversion rate (17/51) vs. 49% a year ago (30/61). 16% improvement in 3rd down defense
11% 4th down conversion rate (1/9) vs. 0% a year ago (0/4). Good both years...change not meaningful.
8 sacks for 55 yards vs. 17 sacks for 102 yards a year ago. 9 fewer sacks and 47 fewer sack yards
Team Stats
Scoring margin of +8.8 points/game vs. +5.0 ppg a year ago. +3.8 ppg improvement from a year ago
33:43 average time of possession vs. 31:23 a year ago. +2:20 of possession this year
-7 turnover margin vs. -2 turnover margin a year ago. -5 turnover margin vs. a year ago
38 penalties for 269 yards averaging 67.2 yards per game vs. 22/218/54.5. 16 more penalties, 51 more yards, and 12.7 more yards per game.
QB Facts
Laviano: 72 -100 (72% completion percentage), 6 tds, 5 interceptions, 794 yards (198.5/game), 81 rushing yards (ex-72 yards lost from sacks)
Nova: 57 - 90 (63% completion percentage), 6 tds, 6 interceptions, 906 yards (226.5/game), 41 rushing yards (ex 42 yards lost from sacks)
Laviano higher completion percentage, same touchdowns, 1 fewer interception, 112 few yards, 28 fewer yards/game, 40 more positive rushing yards, 30 more 'negative' rushing yards.
Conclusions
To me, the sentiment that this is an awful team are a bit off base. We were 8-5 last year and in many ways, this year's team is performing well compared to last year. Offensively, there really hasn't been much of a drop-off and Laviano is holding his own vs. Nova from last year. Defensively, there are some encouraging statistics as well including yards and points per game.
Where we are clearly worse than last year is turnovers and penalties and sacks...all of which were critical in the Washington State game (particularly the failure to intercept the pass on the last WSU drive and the TDs called back due to penalties). I know the argument that we beat two of the worst teams in football, and that is true, but the losses have come to a Washington State team that isn't 'out of our league' bad and that we beat last year due to a favorable bounce or two, and a Penn State team that, while not great, is tough at home at night (ask Ohio State last year...although the performance by Rutgers left a lot to be desired).
Had we won that Washington State game and entered the bye week at 3-1, and if we didn't have the sideshow of the arrests/flood suspension, I think the feeling we would have towards this team would be much better. I know...lots of 'ifs', but to assume that the season is totally lost is not correct as you could argue that this team can be better than last year if the penalties get cleaned up and the turnover margin improves. A lot of that falls to the players and coaching, but if the players and coaching could be better in those areas a year ago, there is no reason they can't get better this season. Considering the absence of Carroo for 2/3 of the season thus far, Hamilton, and the bulk of the secondary, the kids on the team deserve credit for holding things together thus far.
Offensive Stats:
31.8 points per game vs. 30.0 points a year ago. +1.8 points per game
211.0 rushing yards per game vs. 177.5 a year ago. +33.5 yards per game
226.0 passing yards per game vs. 228.0 a year ago. -2.0 yards per game
6.1 yards per play vs. 6.2 yards per play a year ago. -0.1 yards per play
50% 3rd down conversion rate (23/46) vs. 42.3% a year ago (22/52). +7.7% higher
8 fumbles/5 lost vs. 4 fumbles/2 lost a year ago. 3 more lost fumbles vs. a year ago
5 interceptions vs. 6 interceptions a year ago. 1 less interception vs. a year ago
6 sacks allowed for 54 yards vs. 5 sacks allowed for 37 yards. 1 more sack allowed, 17 more yards
Defensive Stats
392 yards allowed per game vs. 435 per game a year ago. 43 yards per game improvement
23.0 points allowed per game vs. 25.0 points allowed a year ago. -2.0 points allowed per game
6.1 average yards allowed per play vs. 6.1 yards per play a year ago. No change in yards allowed/play
3 interceptions vs. 3 interceptions. No change in interceptions.
0 fumble recoveries vs. 3 fumble recoveries a year ago. 3 fewer fumble recoveries
33% 3rd down conversion rate (17/51) vs. 49% a year ago (30/61). 16% improvement in 3rd down defense
11% 4th down conversion rate (1/9) vs. 0% a year ago (0/4). Good both years...change not meaningful.
8 sacks for 55 yards vs. 17 sacks for 102 yards a year ago. 9 fewer sacks and 47 fewer sack yards
Team Stats
Scoring margin of +8.8 points/game vs. +5.0 ppg a year ago. +3.8 ppg improvement from a year ago
33:43 average time of possession vs. 31:23 a year ago. +2:20 of possession this year
-7 turnover margin vs. -2 turnover margin a year ago. -5 turnover margin vs. a year ago
38 penalties for 269 yards averaging 67.2 yards per game vs. 22/218/54.5. 16 more penalties, 51 more yards, and 12.7 more yards per game.
QB Facts
Laviano: 72 -100 (72% completion percentage), 6 tds, 5 interceptions, 794 yards (198.5/game), 81 rushing yards (ex-72 yards lost from sacks)
Nova: 57 - 90 (63% completion percentage), 6 tds, 6 interceptions, 906 yards (226.5/game), 41 rushing yards (ex 42 yards lost from sacks)
Laviano higher completion percentage, same touchdowns, 1 fewer interception, 112 few yards, 28 fewer yards/game, 40 more positive rushing yards, 30 more 'negative' rushing yards.
Conclusions
To me, the sentiment that this is an awful team are a bit off base. We were 8-5 last year and in many ways, this year's team is performing well compared to last year. Offensively, there really hasn't been much of a drop-off and Laviano is holding his own vs. Nova from last year. Defensively, there are some encouraging statistics as well including yards and points per game.
Where we are clearly worse than last year is turnovers and penalties and sacks...all of which were critical in the Washington State game (particularly the failure to intercept the pass on the last WSU drive and the TDs called back due to penalties). I know the argument that we beat two of the worst teams in football, and that is true, but the losses have come to a Washington State team that isn't 'out of our league' bad and that we beat last year due to a favorable bounce or two, and a Penn State team that, while not great, is tough at home at night (ask Ohio State last year...although the performance by Rutgers left a lot to be desired).
Had we won that Washington State game and entered the bye week at 3-1, and if we didn't have the sideshow of the arrests/flood suspension, I think the feeling we would have towards this team would be much better. I know...lots of 'ifs', but to assume that the season is totally lost is not correct as you could argue that this team can be better than last year if the penalties get cleaned up and the turnover margin improves. A lot of that falls to the players and coaching, but if the players and coaching could be better in those areas a year ago, there is no reason they can't get better this season. Considering the absence of Carroo for 2/3 of the season thus far, Hamilton, and the bulk of the secondary, the kids on the team deserve credit for holding things together thus far.
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