Something to remember

[zappaa]

Zap, I love you and most of the time we agree with each other, but you are just wrong on this. You can’t compare being drafted in baseball in the 70s to being a basketball lottery pick in 2024. You can’t even compare being drafted in baseball today to being a top 5 basketball draft pick, and I will explain why.

-Forget the 70s, a first round baseball draft pick today may never even play against another first round draft pick. Top 5 basketball players have played national schedules with their high school teams, they played against all the top players in AAU, and against all the top players in camps and all star games. The best players have played all the best players for a couple of years before they even get to college.

-It is much harder to get drafted in the NBA vs the MLB, but it is also much more projectable. There are only 2 rounds in the NBA draft, vs 20 for MLB, and given how global basketball is, the pool of potential players is much larger with as many as 40% of foreign players drafted in any year. Drilling down to top 5 picks, which Ace and Dylan are expected to be, the miss rate over the last 6 or 7 years is less than 10%, and more than 50% of top 5 picks are averaging 20 points or more within their first two years in the league. Unlike you, very few top 5 draft picks get to the MLB in 2 years, and many top draft picks wash out.

-Top high school basketball players have a much greater opportunity to play and test themselves against NBA stars at camps and other private scrimmages. You may have been an outlier as the son of a legendary baseball player, but virtually no high school baseball players have the opportunity to compete against MLB players.

-This past year’s draft was relatively week, had Ace and Dylan been eligible, the would have gone 1st and 2nd over everyone drafted this year. Their offensive capabilities are well developed and well understood, their measurables are off the charts, and they have shown repeatedly they are alpha dogs competing against the best players.

Thank you brother.
Ok, so no adjustment for them in your eyes.
Playing on the road in pact arenas against the best coaches, defensive game plans and players in real time they’ve ever seen with the money on the line.
I’ve already told you I believe they will be great, i think you’re way wrong comparing what they are about to see with AAU, high school, scrimmaging and camps.
I don’t care where Dylan has played, I’d wager right now he’s never played against a guy like Caleb.
Scrimmaging isn’t remotely the same

 

[Nycrusupporter]

Ok, so no adjustment for them in your eyes.
Playing on the road in pact arenas against the best coaches, defensive game plans and players in real time they’ve ever seen with the money on the line.
I’ve already told you I believe they will be great, i think you’re way wrong comparing what they are about to see with AAU, high school, scrimmaging and camps.

There will be adjustments, but we know a lot more about how these two players will adapt vs everyone else on the roster. And by the way, the coaching in college isn’t all that good.

 

[zappaa]

There will be adjustments, but we know a lot more about how these two players will adapt vs everyone else on the roster. And by the way, the coaching in college isn’t all that good.

That’s for sure, they’re light years ahead in talent compared to the rest of the roster.

 

[Scangg]

JR Inman was ready for a break out junior year. He prepared for the season by hiring a coach and running on the beaches in California.

Not sure if I have the fact 100% here.....but there was no breakout.

As i have said before, Ace (especially) and Dylan have never been asked to play both sides of the court with full energy. This is going to be completely different. If they spectate on defense like we saw in the scrimmage we will be a .500 team.

What does JR Inman have to do with Ace and Dylan?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

What does JR Inman have to do with Ace and Dylan?

not sure what happened here.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

AAU basketball might as well be a different sport than college basketball. Going back to the baseball analogy....playing in a AAU basketball game is like being a baseball hitter and the opposing pitcher can't change speed on his pitches.

 

[zappaa]

AAU basketball might as well be a different sport than college basketball. Going back to the baseball analogy....playing in a AAU basketball game is like being a baseball hitter and the opposing pitcher can't change speed on his pitches.

Do the hearts of 15,000 fans drop like an anvil when you miss two consecutive foul shots in an AAU game?
Is there are way to measure how a players body will react and function under enormous pressure.

I’ve seen incredibly gifted athletes turn to jelly under pressure.

 

[lion1983]

What’s your point?
Our fanbase had him having a monster year before he faced grown men with great athleticism guarding him.
His new coach says he’s a tireless worker by the way, and so did Pike.

I have no idea why Griffiths did not perform better on offense (i.e why he did not shoot better). He seemed to have a lot of potential there, and for some reason couldn't hit a shot (either 3-pointer or 2-pointer) most of the season.

BUT ... his bigger issue (as I just posted in another thread), was his complete inability to prevent the offensive player he defended on-ball from beating him with the dribble penetration. It was mystifying how he was literally unable to prevent any player he covered from getting past him with the dribble drive ... he did do as little better the last few games of the season. And he did not make up for that with demonstrating any reasonable knowledge of how to provide adequate help defense by knowing where to be and where to rotate to provide defensive help.

Those inadequacies put great pressure on the rest of RU's defensive rotations, occasionally salvaged by Omoruyi's shot-blocking, but defensive rotation and help defense relies on much more than a sole rim protector ... including messing up preventing offensive rebounding by messing up defensive players being in position to box out and secure defensive rebounds.

It was a mystery why Griffiths was so bad at defense: It was not athletic ability (he is and was quick enough and enough vertical leap to be effective). And if it was not effort (because he worked hard by every coach's commentary), I wonder what it was?

 

[Shelby65]

I have no idea why Griffiths did not perform better on offense (i.e why he did not shoot better). He seemed to have a lot of potential there, and for some reason couldn't hit a shot (either 3-pointer or 2-pointer) most of the season.

BUT ... his bigger issue (as I just posted in another thread), was his complete inability to prevent the offensive player he defended on-ball from beating him with the dribble penetration. It was mystifying how he was literally unable to prevent any player he covered from getting past him with the dribble drive ... he did do as little better the last few games of the season. And he did not make up for that with demonstrating any reasonable knowledge of how to provide adequate help defense by knowing where to be and where to rotate to provide defensive help.

Those inadequacies put great pressure on the rest of RU's defensive rotations, occasionally salvaged by Omoruyi's shot-blocking, but defensive rotation and help defense relies on much more than a sole rim protector ... including messing up preventing offensive rebounding by messing up defensive players being in position to box out and secure defensive rebounds.

It was a mystery why Griffiths was so bad at defense: It was not athletic ability (he is and was quick enough and enough vertical leap to be effective). And if it was not effort (because he worked hard by every coach's commentary), I wonder what it was?

It was because he was not used to playing it. If there were enough offensive talent and a better system around him to win without needing his D he wouldn’t have been perceived the same way.

If Ace were in GG’s place last year, without Harper to share the burden, the same would be said about Ace.

 

[lion1983]

It was because he was not used to playing it. If there were enough offensive talent and a better system around him to win without needing his D he wouldn’t have been perceived the same way.

If Ace were in GG’s place last year, without Harper to share the burden, the same would be said about Ace.

Maybe ... but really, you are comparing Bailey with Griffiths?

Griffiths was a terrific recruiting prospect for RU, ranking as a top 50 player, around 40th, generally, and was considered a potentially elite 3-point shooter and a 3-levbel scorer.

Bailey is considered a potential #1 OVERALL NBA draft pick, almost certainly a top 5 NBA draft pick.

There is no realistic world in which Bailey and Griffiths are perceived as the same level of offensive productivity or potential.

 

[Shelby65]

Maybe ... but really, you are comparing Bailey with Griffiths?

Griffiths was a terrific recruiting prospect for RU, ranking as a top 50 player, around 40th, generally, and was considered a potentially elite 3-point shooter and a 3-levbel scorer.

Bailey is considered a potential #1 OVERALL NBA draft pick, almost certainly a top 5 NBA draft pick.

There is no realistic world in which Bailey and Griffiths are perceived as the same level of offensive productivity or potential.

Actually, Ace hasn't played 1 game yet. But I was not comparing their offensive abilities or NBA stock.

What I meant was, if Ace was on last year's team instead of GG without enough other offensive talent to win many more games than the team actually did, we'd harp on Ace's defensive shortcomings too.

With Harper, they'll score enough for defensive weaknesses to be overlooked/ignored. GG didn't have that benefit. It's a team game, and GG didn't have much of a team. His weak defense mattered more than Bailey's will this year.

Ain't it funny the Jets were better with laughingstock Wilson last year than with HOF Rodgers so far this year. See what I mean ? I doubt last year's team would have been much better with Bailey instead of GG.

 

[lion1983]

Actually, Ace hasn't played 1 game yet. But I was not comparing their offensive abilities or NBA stock.

What I meant was, if Ace was on last year's team instead of GG without enough other offensive talent to win many more games than the team actually did, we'd harp on Ace's defensive shortcomings too.

With Harper, they'll score enough for defensive weaknesses to be overlooked/ignored. GG didn't have that benefit. It's a team game, and GG didn't have much of a team. His weak defense mattered more than Bailey's will this year.

Ain't it funny the Jets were better with laughingstock Wilson last year than with HOF Rodgers so far this year. See what I mean ? I doubt last year's team would have been much better with Bailey instead of GG.

We will agree to disagree in that case. With respect and good will.

Bailey is a transformational offensive talent and would have started and scored plenty on last year's team, even with last season's supporting cast - and even in just 1 extremely small sample size of a theoretically valueless exhibition game, it was obvious he is materially better defensively than Griffiths (both on-ball and with help defense from the weak side).

 

[Shelby65]

We will agree to disagree in that case. With respect and good will.

Bailey is a transformational offensive talent and would have started and scored plenty on last year's team, even with last season's supporting cast - and even in just 1 extremely small sample size of a theoretically valueless exhibition game, it was obvious he is materially better defensively than Griffiths (both on-ball and with help defense from the weak side).

still missing my point. Bailey's production last year wouldn't have been enough to change our record much, so his defense would have been scrutinized/criticized same as GGs.

With Harper to help with the heavy lifting on offense this year and the likely better record, Ace's defense won't be scrutinized as much.

Similarly, if GG was on this years' team he'd be a different player. You will see better production from him in a cohesive offense under Hoiberg this year.

Different teams have different needs. Last year the team needed high scoring and great defense from him. This year's team won't need as much of either from Ace

 

[GRU23]

Lol cannot believe we are still talking about Gavin, especially in comparison to Ace. Ace is in a different stratosphere of talent, only similarity is they are skinny freshmen. Gavin’s rating came from the fact he was supposedly one of if it the best shooter in the class at 6’7 while being athletic in straight lines. Unfortunately, the practical aspects of basketball caught up to him, where he was skinny, poor lateral mover, had no defensive IQ, and had no handle and might not be able to shoot to the level that was thought of him. Ace is completely different and a big reason why it’s dumb to have all these takes comparing them to our past freshmen or freshmen baseball players from 55 years ago lol

 

[lion1983]

still missing my point. Bailey's production last year wouldn't have been enough to change our record much, so his defense would have been scrutinized/criticized same as GGs.

With Harper to help with the heavy lifting on offense this year and the likely better record, Ace's defense won't be scrutinized as much.

Similarly, if GG was on this years' team he'd be a different player. You will see better production from him in a cohesive offense under Hoiberg this year.

Different teams have different needs. Last year the team needed high scoring and great defense from him. This year's team won't need as much of either from Ace

Agree to disagree, respectfully.

Last season RU needed a scorer to average 12-14 ppg in addition to its other pieces, in addition to what Omoruyi might provide, in addition to Hyatt and the portal pieces. I had hoped it would be Griffiths, or maybe Simpson. It would have been extremely helpful to have a new player push Hyatt to where he offered the most utility: The bench as a 6th man.

There is no doubt in my mind that had a hypothetical Bailey been on last season's team INSTEAD OF GRIFFITHS (let's say) he WOULD have provided that role, WOULD have reliably averaged 12-14 ppg, would have started, very likely would have pushed Hyatt to his best role (offensive and rebounding spark off the bench as 6th man). And it very well may have changed to entire direction of the season, and may well have resulted in RU being an NCAA team (maybe not a high seed, but maybe 10 or 11 ... but IN).

 

[GRU23]

still missing my point. Bailey's production last year wouldn't have been enough to change our record much, so his defense would have been scrutinized/criticized same as GGs.

With Harper to help with the heavy lifting on offense this year and the likely better record, Ace's defense won't be scrutinized as much.

Similarly, if GG was on this years' team he'd be a different player. You will see better production from him in a cohesive offense under Hoiberg this year.

Different teams have different needs. Last year the team needed high scoring and great defense from him. This year's team won't need as much of either from Ace

Early reports are Gavin hasn’t done a whole lot at Nebraska yet. Every team requires good offense and good defense lol. I know your point but the level of production Ace would provide last year and Gavin would provide this year will still be worlds apart. Gavin might just not have been that good. It’s okay

 

[Nycrusupporter]

Do the hearts of 15,000 fans drop like an anvil when you miss two consecutive foul shots in an AAU game?
Is there are way to measure how a players body will react and function under enormous pressure.

I’ve seen incredibly gifted athletes turn to jelly under pressure.

These two kids have played under big crowds and under pressure situations. They were both in the McDonalds All American game, in front of a bigger crowd than they will probably see this season and with the entire basketball world watching. The Rucker park game had a raucous crowd with Hype MCs getting everyone as loud as possible. The Peach Jam EYBL games are nationally televised, covered by all the major sports outlets, and draw big crowds.

 

[Shelby65]

Agree to disagree, respectfully.

Last season RU needed a scorer to average 12-14 ppg in addition to its other pieces, in addition to what Omoruyi might provide, in addition to Hyatt and the portal pieces. I had hoped it would be Griffiths, or maybe Simpson. It would have been extremely helpful to have a new player push Hyatt to where he offered the most utility: The bench as a 6th man.

There is no doubt in my mind that had a hypothetical Bailey been on last season's team INSTEAD OF GRIFFITHS (let's say) he WOULD have provided that role, WOULD have reliably averaged 12-14 ppg, would have started, very likely would have pushed Hyatt to his best role (offensive and rebounding spark off the bench as 6th man). And it very well may have changed to entire direction of the season, and may well have resulted in RU being an NCAA team (maybe not a high seed, but maybe 10 or 11 ... but IN).

Fair enough. Agree to disagree. Last year's offense was so dysfunctional I don't think Bailey would have made much of a difference. He'd have been watching JWill, JMike, and Simpson force shots liks the fans did. Am not disappointed in the least Simpson is gone, and I wish he took JMike with him....who of course wasn't going to leave with his friend coming in.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Maybe ... but really, you are comparing Bailey with Griffiths?

Griffiths was a terrific recruiting prospect for RU, ranking as a top 50 player, around 40th, generally, and was considered a potentially elite 3-point shooter and a 3-levbel scorer.

Bailey is considered a potential #1 OVERALL NBA draft pick, almost certainly a top 5 NBA draft pick.

There is no realistic world in which Bailey and Griffiths are perceived as the same level of offensive productivity or potential.

As a showed before...ZERo freshman in the Pike regime with the current 3 point line has shot over 30% from 3. geo is ONLY freshman over 30% and that was the old line.

Given the amount of D that is asked to be played AND having to play offense with a higher pulse rate is a huge factor.

 

[zappaa]

Lol cannot believe we are still talking about Gavin, especially in comparison to Ace. Ace is in a different stratosphere of talent, only similarity is they are skinny freshmen. Gavin’s rating came from the fact he was supposedly one of if it the best shooter in the class at 6’7 while being athletic in straight lines. Unfortunately, the practical aspects of basketball caught up to him, where he was skinny, poor lateral mover, had no defensive IQ, and had no handle and might not be able to shoot to the level that was thought of him. Ace is completely different and a big reason why it’s dumb to have all these takes comparing them to our past freshmen or freshmen baseball players from 55 years ago lol

I didn’t compare these two to Griffiths, and nothing has changed in 100 years as far as how pressure affects athletes from any sport.
If you don’t think our fanbase had ridiculous expectations from Gavin you’re delusional.
If you don’t think he was reduced to jelly by pressure, you’re wrong.

You obviously know nothing about playing a sport at the highest level and ignore the FACT in every post I predict both of our lottery picks will eventually be great…. In time.

 

[zappaa]

These two kids have played under big crowds and under pressure situations. They were both in the McDonalds All American game, in front of a bigger crowd than they will probably see this season and with the entire basketball world watching. The Rucker park game had a raucous crowd with Hype MCs getting everyone as loud as possible. The Peach Jam EYBL games are nationally televised, covered by all the major sports outlets, and draw big crowds.

I’m sorry my friend, I have to laugh at your comparisons.
Those games are no pressure all fun

 

[PaKnight]

It was because he was not used to playing it. If there were enough offensive talent and a better system around him to win without needing his D he wouldn’t have been perceived the same way.

If Ace were in GG’s place last year, without Harper to share the burden, the same would be said about Ace.

Ace >>>> Gavin

 

[PaKnight]

As a showed before...ZERo freshman in the Pike regime with the current 3 point line has shot over 30% from 3. geo is ONLY freshman over 30% and that was the old line.

Given the amount of D that is asked to be played AND having to play offense with a higher pulse rate is a huge factor.

I love that you think you know the impact of defense on a player’s pulse rate. It not like Steve is the only coach that prioritizes defense.

 

[zappaa]

I love that you think you know the impact of defense on a player’s pulse rate. It not like Steve is the only coach that prioritizes defense.

When you defend the entire shot clock down, force a shot and give up offensive rebounds… you will be exhausted at the offensive end.

 

[PaKnight]

When you defend the entire shot clock down, force a shot and give up offensive rebounds… you will be exhausted at the offensive end.

He did not say anything about defending the entire shot clock and giving up an offensive rebound. He was talking about playing Pikiell defense.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I love that you think you know the impact of defense on a player’s pulse rate. It not like Steve is the only coach that prioritizes defense.

I have said this a lot so sorry to repeat. I saw one possession in a Oregon game with Jacob Young and it told me everything i needed to know about our program. A slip under a high screen

We have routinely been elite defensive over the years playing with a bunch of pieces (onviously not all pieces) that are very slow and have poor lateral quickness

 

[Shelby65]

Ace >>>> Gavin

Of course…just saying that Ace won’t be expected to play tough D, and that more D was expected from GG since his team wasn’t able to win with offense.

Same way Schiano needs more from AK than GW since the D is weaker this year

 

[PaKnight]

I have said this a lot so sorry to repeat. I saw one possession in a Oregon game with Jacob Young and it told me everything i needed to know about our program. A slip under a high screen

We have routinely been elite defensive over the years playing with a bunch of pieces (onviously not all pieces) that are very slow and have poor lateral quickness

You would think that one possession is meaningful.

 

[PaKnight]

Of course…just saying that Ace won’t be expected to play tough D, and that more D was expected from GG since his team wasn’t able to win with offense.

Same way Schiano needs more from AK than GW since the D is weaker this year

That is not how things work. Gavin got a lot more minutes than he deserved based on his offense and defense.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

You would think that one possession is meaningful.

Given the fact that it isn't acceptable to do that at RU and Jacob went under it at Oregon I thought it was very telling. There is a significant difference in the defensive intensity Rutgers players play with and the average D1 program. Pike certainly hasn't resurrected a dead program because of our offense or talent (until recently).

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I love that you think you know the impact of defense on a player’s pulse rate. It not like Steve is the only coach that prioritizes defense.

Again....we have NEVER had a freshman with the current 3 point line shoot 30% or better from 3. We just had a can't miss offensive talent known as a shooter fail shooting.

 

[RUfan1977]

They aren’t going to tire themselves on D. Not how stars roll, especially one and dones who will be expected to carry the offense. Not being critical, it’s just how it is.

Defense is irrelevant to their draft stock. They ain’t bustin’ their asses on D.

Based on the effort Ace and Dylan showed in the exhibition game, it looked like to me that they wanted to play good D. Clearly defense is more complicated in college so there will be a learning curve, but the effort was there. That became obvious when Dylan picked up his 4th foul and his defensive effort was gone as he was mostly trying to avoid a 5th foul. As for Ace, he was out there blocking shots and his goaltending block was impressive. He should also be a good rebounder at this level because of his incredible athleticism, but the effort level to rebound at the college level is something he will need to get used to giving.

 

[Scangg]

Can we just put an end to any Ace vs Gavin comparisons now? There is really no point and serves no purpose

 

[RutgersDom]

This is the biggest concern. Talent can only do so much. Experience matters and you saw the other night

So sounds like we all need to be patient then riiiiigghhtt????? Team (and young pups) will be better in Feb than Nov.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Can we just put an end to any Ace vs Gavin comparisons now? There is really no point and serves no purpose

My referencing Gavin is just to make the point that shooting in a AAU game where you aren't taxed from playing D is completely different than shooting in a Rutgers uniform. No freshman has shot over 30% from 3 with the current line. This includes the best shooter we ever recruited.

 

[FAT MOON]

My referencing Gavin is just to make the point that shooting in a AAU game where you aren't taxed from playing D is completely different than shooting in a Rutgers uniform. No freshman has shot over 30% from 3 with the current line. This includes the best shooter we ever recruited.

I think that is a fair point but it's also a fair point to say that no frosh recruited in the Pike era is in the same stratosphere as Ace or Dylan. Next best player was probably Geo (recruiting ranking be damned) and he was probably our third option that year?

They won't ever play with the same defensive intensity as previous RU teams and that is OK...because they will be so much better offensively. But they will be significantly better on D than they were in the scrimmage and will be more than serviceable come the middle of the season. Don't need to hold teams to 55 when you can score 75.

The supporting cast is going to need to need to do all the little things to allow the two of them to shine. Whoever does that plus hitting open shots will be the ones who play the most imo.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I think that is a fair point but it's also a fair point to say that no frosh recruited in the Pike era is in the same stratosphere as Ace or Dylan.

While this is true....from a shooting perspective preseason no recruit (outside of maybe Rosario) has ever been supposed to be as good of a shooter as Gavin.

 

[Nycrusupporter]

My referencing Gavin is just to make the point that shooting in a AAU game where you aren't taxed from playing D is completely different than shooting in a Rutgers uniform. No freshman has shot over 30% from 3 with the current line. This includes the best shooter we ever recruited.

Gavin didn’t play enough minutes to be physically taxed, and he had surgery on his wrist this off-season which he claimed was injured in November, which certainly could have contributed to his shooting problems.

 

[Scangg]

Gavin didn’t play enough minutes to be physically taxed, and he had surgery on his wrist this off-season which he claimed was injured in November, which certainly could have contributed to his shooting problems.

Interesting. The wrist is obviously extremely important for shooting