Don't you think some of that was because of all the freshman expected to play significant minutes?
Agree next year the OOC needs an upgrade.
The “Path to a BYE” Thread!!!!
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Don't you think some of that was because of all the freshman expected to play significant minutes?
Agree next year the OOC needs an upgrade.
Hawk is right here
We played 23 of our 30 regular season games against power conference teams
That’s BRUTAL...
While you don’t want to schedule 300 ranked rpi teams ..thars about the best we can hope for//::
We played 23 of our 30 regular season games against power conference teams
That’s BRUTAL...
While you don’t want to schedule 300 ranked rpi teams ..thars about the best we can hope for//::
When the schedule came out on paper the OOC looked a lot tougher. The weak 6 or 7 teams appeared a big step up. Somehow those teams havent performed.
Actually looking back to last year...the weak sisters are actually a bit tougher than last year. Last year we hit up on some real bottom of the barrel gems. 7 from the 275 and below. this year only Maine from the sub 275 club
Yep. They went 4-1 against major-conference schools in non-conference, and had no bad losses. The only loss was to Texas Tech who will be like a 4 seed.
If they went 8-12 in the Big Ten, they'd be 12-13 against major-conference schools and 6-0 against lower-conference schools. Given the strength of the Big Ten, that at least gets them on the bubble.
Believe it or not, Nebraska sits at #40 in the NET rankings the NCAA wants the committee to lean on for NCAA bids. Remaining schedule:
02/16/19 NORTHWESTERN 8:30 PM
02/19/19 at Penn State 7:00 PM
02/23/19 PURDUE 4:00 PM
02/28/19 at Michigan 7:00 PM
03/05/19 at Michigan State 7:00 PM
03/10/19 IOWA 2:00 PM
If they pick up four wins, that means at least two wins against top 25 competition (the last four opponents), which will boost their resume.
By comparison, we are #122. Penn State is 70, Northwestern is 71. Minnesota is down at 58 which means they are in serious jeopardy of missing out on the tournament if they don't pick up some key wins. Those rankings do not include yesterday's results. This is the schedule game we need to play if/when we want to have serious bubble consideration.
Ohio State 6-7
Minnesota 6-8
Illinois 6-8
Rutgers 5-9
Indiana 5-9
Nebraska 4-10
Northwestern 3-10
Penn State
With the Illini win last night, we're pretty much looking at five teams in the mix for the bottom four spots. Our best path remains rooting against Indiana. If we pull the upset against Iowa and Indiana knocks off Minnesota, then things get more interesting.
What We Want This Weekend
Maryland/Michigan is irrelevant
Ohio State/Michigan State is mostly irrelevant, so we might as well root for MSU and keep our slim chance of catching OSU alive. However an OSU win benefits us in a tiebreaker with Northwestern (see below) but it's unlikely that will matter.
Minnesota over Indiana (58%)
This would put the Gophers probably out of reach for us, but drop Indiana to 4-10 and assure that we retain at least a half-game lead over them.
Northwestern over Nebraska (25%)
Rooting for the upset here, as a Nebraska win would put them at 5-10 and match us if we lose to Iowa.
Purdue over Penn State (87%)
Pretty simple here. If Penn State doesn't upset Purdue, Maryland, or Wisconsin then they'll probably need to go at least 3-1 against Nebraska, Rutgers, and Illinois twice to avoid the basement.
Tiebreakers
Tiebreakers are not in our favor at the moment, for the most part. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head, the second tiebreaker is record against #1 team in standings, then record against #2 team in standings, etc.
Getting a second win over Penn State and/or Indiana would give us the H2H tiebreaker over them. However, if we end up 1-1 against them they'll hold the tiebreaker over us since PSU beat Michigan and Indiana beat Michigan State... Of course we could theoretically also beat Michigan State but that's unlikely on the road. And if both Indiana and PSU beat us then we're probably getting the bye anyway.
We split with Northwestern. Our best win right now is Ohio State (7th in the conference), their best is Illinois (tied for 8th in the conference)... Given the way Illinois is playing, and their weak remaining schedule, it's probably 50/50 as to who would win the tiebreaker. However, it's very unlikely we end up in a tie with Northwestern at the #10/11 spot, so our tiebreaker with them would be for seeding purposes only.
We hold the tiebreaker over Nebraska as we won the only regular-season matchup with them.
Minnesota 6-8
Illinois 6-8
Rutgers 5-9
Indiana 5-9
Nebraska 4-10
Northwestern 3-10
Penn State
With the Illini win last night, we're pretty much looking at five teams in the mix for the bottom four spots. Our best path remains rooting against Indiana. If we pull the upset against Iowa and Indiana knocks off Minnesota, then things get more interesting.
What We Want This Weekend
Maryland/Michigan is irrelevant
Ohio State/Michigan State is mostly irrelevant, so we might as well root for MSU and keep our slim chance of catching OSU alive. However an OSU win benefits us in a tiebreaker with Northwestern (see below) but it's unlikely that will matter.
Minnesota over Indiana (58%)
This would put the Gophers probably out of reach for us, but drop Indiana to 4-10 and assure that we retain at least a half-game lead over them.
Northwestern over Nebraska (25%)
Rooting for the upset here, as a Nebraska win would put them at 5-10 and match us if we lose to Iowa.
Purdue over Penn State (87%)
Pretty simple here. If Penn State doesn't upset Purdue, Maryland, or Wisconsin then they'll probably need to go at least 3-1 against Nebraska, Rutgers, and Illinois twice to avoid the basement.
Tiebreakers
Tiebreakers are not in our favor at the moment, for the most part. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head, the second tiebreaker is record against #1 team in standings, then record against #2 team in standings, etc.
Getting a second win over Penn State and/or Indiana would give us the H2H tiebreaker over them. However, if we end up 1-1 against them they'll hold the tiebreaker over us since PSU beat Michigan and Indiana beat Michigan State... Of course we could theoretically also beat Michigan State but that's unlikely on the road. And if both Indiana and PSU beat us then we're probably getting the bye anyway.
We split with Northwestern. Our best win right now is Ohio State (7th in the conference), their best is Illinois (tied for 8th in the conference)... Given the way Illinois is playing, and their weak remaining schedule, it's probably 50/50 as to who would win the tiebreaker. However, it's very unlikely we end up in a tie with Northwestern at the #10/11 spot, so our tiebreaker with them would be for seeding purposes only.
We hold the tiebreaker over Nebraska as we won the only regular-season matchup with them.
I think 8 teams can find one of those 4 spots. Ohio State is not out of the woods. You could need 8 wins to stay out of the penalty box. there could be a tie at 7-13.
bart actually has us and Nebraska tied at 7-13 for 10th place
bart actually has us and Nebraska tied at 7-13 for 10th place
We want Purdue over Indiana and Penn State over Nebraska tonight.
yes
and Nebby is likely done for the year, one more win at most.
we need to watch out for Penn State
but I am more convinced that getting to 7-13 is now enough
and Nebby is likely done for the year, one more win at most.
we need to watch out for Penn State
but I am more convinced that getting to 7-13 is now enough
We want OSU over Northwestern tonight... If we somehow beat MSU then we can root for Northwestern and hope to catch OSU (the win over MSU would also likely give us the tiebreaker over OSU, who we split 1-1 with).
Tomorrow's Michigan/Minnesota game is basically irrelevant, not much chance we catch Minnesota but might as well root for Michigan.
Then on Friday we want Iowa over Indiana.
Tomorrow's Michigan/Minnesota game is basically irrelevant, not much chance we catch Minnesota but might as well root for Michigan.
Then on Friday we want Iowa over Indiana.
We always play 20 conference games, so 20 of the 23 power conference games are Big Ten games. We always play Seton Hall, so that only gives us 9 OOC games that we have to worry about scheduling.
Of those 9 OOC games, we had 2 power teams (Miami and St Johns). It was the other 7 that killed our SOS. Maine at 328, Columbia 243, FDU 236, Drexel 226, Boston 224, Fordham 219. Only Eastern Michigan was in the top-200 at 154.
Compare that to Nebraska who played 5 power conf teams OOC (Seton Hall, Creighton, Texas Tech, Clemson, Okla State). Of their remaining OOC games, only 3 schools were below the top-200 (Miss Valley 349, W Illinois, 304, SE Louisiana 281). So they have a stronger SOS.
For next year, if Rutgers isn't expecting to be on the bubble, the SOS doesn't make that much difference. But if we're playing for the bubble (or NIT bid), then we need to upgrade our OOC schedule.
This is the first year we have ever played 20 conference games
Upstream
Actually ...I expect us to be on the bubble next year
Which is why I say playing 23 out of 31 games next year against power five teams is a tall task
You need those 8 out of 8 wins ...so the question goes how risk adverse are you to get 8 for 8...or how much do you want to chance a loss or two against someone who might give you a battle.
Here's where we stand now:
Ohio State 7-9
Minnesota 7-10
Illinois 6-10
Rutgers 6-11
Nebraska 5-12
Penn State 4-12
Indiana 4-12
Northwestern 3-13
It's extremely extremely unlikely that we finish in last after last night's win... hooray!
Things are looking decently well for a bye with two-game leads over Penn State and Indiana, and an effective two-game lead over Nebraska as we own the tiebreaker against them. So if Indiana and Penn State both go 1-3 in their final four games, even if the 1 win comes against us we'd get the bye.
Nebraska has a very hard final three games: At Michigan, at MSU, vs. Iowa. Hard to see them doing better than 1-2, which puts them at 6-14.
Penn State and Indiana play similar schedules for their final four: They each play Rutgers, Illinois, and Wisconsin. PSU also plays Maryland and Indiana plays Wisconsin.
Bottom Line
Basically our path to losing the bye is going 0-3 in our last 3 and then Indiana or Penn State goes 2-2 or better. One more win from us just about locks it up.
It may prove hard to move up in the standings any further, though, since Minnesota, Illinois, and Ohio State all get to face Northwestern.
Ohio State 7-9
Minnesota 7-10
Illinois 6-10
Rutgers 6-11
Nebraska 5-12
Penn State 4-12
Indiana 4-12
Northwestern 3-13
It's extremely extremely unlikely that we finish in last after last night's win... hooray!
Things are looking decently well for a bye with two-game leads over Penn State and Indiana, and an effective two-game lead over Nebraska as we own the tiebreaker against them. So if Indiana and Penn State both go 1-3 in their final four games, even if the 1 win comes against us we'd get the bye.
Nebraska has a very hard final three games: At Michigan, at MSU, vs. Iowa. Hard to see them doing better than 1-2, which puts them at 6-14.
Penn State and Indiana play similar schedules for their final four: They each play Rutgers, Illinois, and Wisconsin. PSU also plays Maryland and Indiana plays Wisconsin.
Bottom Line
Basically our path to losing the bye is going 0-3 in our last 3 and then Indiana or Penn State goes 2-2 or better. One more win from us just about locks it up.
It may prove hard to move up in the standings any further, though, since Minnesota, Illinois, and Ohio State all get to face Northwestern.
If we win 3 and get to 9-11 , I think we can land in the 7 spot. Somewhere between 7-10 seems probably but right now , the way we are playing for 40 minutes, I like our chances to get all 3
Agreed. Not like you get homecourt or anything.
One more win gets us the bye, essentially. We can still get it without, but it's a lot less likely.
I'd like the 7 because it meant we probably won our last 4 and we are playing for post season, but as for winning the B1GT being above the 1st line is all that matters.
1 thing we have going for us is MSU and UM both have aspirations of winning the National Championship and neither are deep. I really think on the 1st day both teams use their bench a lot more than they normally would. Both coaches would not be heartbroken to lose in the 1st round.
Beilein has proven to be a great tournament coach... but they're also 3-0 in OT over the past three Big Ten tournaments, they barely beat Oklahoma State in round 1 two years ago, and needed the buzzer beater to beat Houston in round 2 last year.
My gut says they're due for some regression and some early-round exits in either the conference or NCAA tournament this year or in the next few.
Not much difference in bracket as 7 through 10 until the semifinals. Any of the top three teams could still be seeded 1 through 3. By getting to the 8/9 game, if you pull off the upset in round 3, you face the #4/5 winner instead of probably #2/3.
With the Indiana win last night, we need another win in our last three games to feel good about the bye again.
Indiana has the tiebreaker over us, so if we both finish at 6-14 they would get the bye.
However, if Nebraska ALSO finishes at 6-14, we would get the bye. But two of their final three are at Michigan and at MSU, so it basically comes down to them needing a win at home against Iowa on the last day of the season.
Indiana has the tiebreaker over us, so if we both finish at 6-14 they would get the bye.
However, if Nebraska ALSO finishes at 6-14, we would get the bye. But two of their final three are at Michigan and at MSU, so it basically comes down to them needing a win at home against Iowa on the last day of the season.
If only two teams are tied and the head-to-head is tied, then the tie breaker goes to whichever team has the best win in conference. The previous poster is assuming they beat us in the finale to split the season series, and they would have a better in-league win because they upset Michigan State.
However, if Nebraska makes it a three way tie, they beat Indiana in their only game. The tiebreaker is overall record against teams in the tie. We'd be 2-1, Nebraska would be 1-1, and Indiana would be 1-2. The rules specifically state it doesn't matter if one team played more games than others in the mini tiebreaker.
Nebraska did their part tonight, getting pasted at Michigan. They are now 5-13 with their next game at Michigan State. We may want them to win a game or two to finish tied with us, as we have that head to head edge.
