The Formula to an NCAA Tourney Birth in 2019-2020 Season

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

now that 26 of our 30 games are set in stone I think we can begin to layout the path to a tourney bid.

1) dont lose to any of the 6 gimme games vs the likes of umass and bryant with 4 more to be scheduled.

2) of the 4 legit OOC games we have vs power conference opponents + big east. Road game at big east in gavitt and SHU should be quad 1 games, my guess is the ACC game at home with be a Q2 game and i dont know if USCjr will be a top 50 team so therefore theyre probably a quad 2 game in canada. If we can go 3-1 in these games or even split this should put us in damn good shape, going through the OOC sched at 9-1. Even if we split those and go 2-2 it would be important that we snag one quad 1 win and finish OOC play at 8-2.

3) conference play. 20 conference games is a real bitch.

The home/away matchups are illinois, maryland, michigan, nebraska, penn state, purdue, wisconsin.

The home only games are indiana, minny, northwestern

The away only games are iowa, michigan state, ohio state.

Of these 20 games, around 12 should be quad 1 games.

So it’s not just about going lets say 11-9 in conference play and getting to 20-10, the games that you win are important. If we only won 1 quad 1 game in out of conference and then only picked up 2-3 in conference play despite going 11-9 it wouldnt play well. So imo the formula is as follows in conference play.

Vs Illinois- quad 2- win
@ illinois quad 1- win
Vs Maryland- quad 1- win
@ maryland- quad 1- lose
Vs michigan- quad 1- lose
@ michigan quad 1- lose
Vs Nebraska quad 3- win
@ nebraska quad 2- win
Vs penn state- quad 2- win
@penn state- quad 1- lose
Vs purdue- quad 1- win
@purdue- quad 1- lose
Vs wisconsin- quad 1/2- win
@ wisconsin- quad 1- lose
Vs indiana- quad 2- win
Vs minny- quad 2 win
Vs northwestern quad 2 win
@ iowa- quad 1- win
@ mich state- quad 1- lose
@ohio state/ quad 1- lose

Assuming we go 8-2 in OOC splitting the quad 1 games, then go 12-8 in big ten play with the wins above that puts us at 20-10 with 5 quad 1 wins. This would be good for a 9 or 10 seed in the tourney imo. Will it be a challenge, hell yeah. But this is the road map and it’s doable.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

With six of our first 12 game before January 1st to be...

Big ten home
Big ten road
Seton hall
South Carolina in Toronto
Home game va ACC
Road game vs big east

We need to be ready to play coming right out of the gate

Need a fast start to dance ...which means winning all six of the non-power conference games ...and at least splitting those six game above

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

With six of our first 12 game before January 1st to be...

Big ten home
Big ten road
Seton hall
South Carolina in Toronto
Home game va ACC
Road game vs big east

We need to be ready to play coming right out of the gate

Need a fast start to dance ...which means winning all six of the non-power conference games ...and at least splitting those six game above

Winning the 2 big east games would be huge. It’s a conference that is always inflated and gets more teams in than they deserve so if it comes down to us vs a big east team or two on selection sunday, being 2-0 and snagging 2 quad 1 wins vs their conference would be huge.

 

[Mr_Twister]

Please let the season play out. Your expectations are way too high. Seasons include injuries, transfers & surprise departures & suspensions, WTF losses, staff departures, team chemistry issues.
I’m sure others here could cite other issues.
The college basketball Gawds have never been kind to our favorite team.

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

Please let the season play out. Your expectations are way too high. Seasons include injuries, transfers & surprise departures & suspensions, WTF losses, staff departures, team chemistry issues.
I’m sure others here could cite other issues.
The college basketball Gawds have never been kind to our favorite team.

No harm in speculating on a fan message board in may

 

[Scangg]

Please let the season play out. Your expectations are way too high. Seasons include injuries, transfers & surprise departures & suspensions, WTF losses, staff departures, team chemistry issues.
I’m sure others here could cite other issues.
The college basketball Gawds have never been kind to our favorite team.

Yea let's not talk about the upcoming season on a fan message board. Everyone hold all opinions until after next season is over. We can only talk about past events after they have played out. These posts are the worsttt

 

[Mr_Twister]

Kiss of Death stuff.

 

[Local Shill]

Kiss of Death stuff.

Any criticism or praise typed here has literally zero effect on any workout, practice or game.

 

[LC-88]

Any criticism or praise typed here has literally zero effect on any workout, practice or game.

You must be new here. :)

 

[Scangg]

Back to the topic at hand... I think taking care of the bottom of the B1G will be key. Can't have let downs against teams like Nebraska and PSU. With the added depth and talent it is going to turn some of these close games that we were ahead in but fell apart late into wins. I think we will see upset of multiple ranked teams include on the road as well as beating a team or two we have yet to beat since entering the B1G.

 

[Degaz-RU]

I’m just glad we’re having a LEGITIMATE discussion about the NCAA tournament. Kyk’s path is not unrealistic at all. On the edge of unlikely, maybe. But possible.

Can’t wait for this season.

 

[huskersalways]

While I don’t think anyone is going to think Nebraska will be at the top of the conference I would also be careful considering them a basement team. Fred “transfer king” Hoiberg has really flipped the roster already. He has signed the top 2 rated juco guards 2 3 point shooter grad transfers and has 2 scholarships left for transfers yet. IF Roby returns(doubtful) then He would certainly help but Hoiberg is not taking a next year approach with the new grad transfer rules. He expects to compete now.

 

[Scangg]

While I don’t think anyone is going to think Nebraska will be at the top of the conference I would also be careful considering them a basement team. Fred “transfer king” Hoiberg has really flipped the roster already. He has signed the top 2 rated juco guards 2 3 point shooter grad transfers and has 2 scholarships left for transfers yet. IF Roby returns(doubtful) then He would certainly help but Hoiberg is not taking a next year approach with the new grad transfer rules. He expects to compete now.

So you guys had 6 open scholarships?

 

[huskersalways]

So you guys had 6 open scholarships?

Yep, 7 if you count Roby’s. One was given to a sit out transfer. There may also be one more player leave. We had 4 graduate and 3 transfers so far.

 

[Scangg]

Yep, 7 if you count Roby’s. One was given to a sit out transfer. There may also be one more player leave. We had 4 graduate and 3 transfers so far.

That's a crazy amount of turnover and really makes it hard to predict how good the team might be

 

[huskersalways]

That's a crazy amount of turnover and really makes it hard to predict how good the team might be

What’s weird is there may have been more if Miles wasn’t fired. He would have went after a bunch of low level kids...

 

[Skull83]

If we're going to have an NCAA tourney "birth" in 2020, we should really be planning for what we're going to be doing about 9 months beforehand :)

 

[KnightTerrors]

Without diving into schedule, I will say the reason we have a legitimate post season shot is because of our depth. On paper, this should be the deepest team and highest quality bench I can remember in many many years.

We will need luck, health, and development.

The fact that we are legitimately speculating about a path to the post season is so effing awesome!

 

[dkostus]

Without diving into schedule, I will say the reason we have a legitimate post season shot is because of our depth. On paper, this should be the deepest team and highest quality bench I can remember in many many years.

We will need luck, health, and development.

The fact that we are legitimately speculating about a path to the post season is so effing awesome!

Agreed. From a strategic standpoint, I'd love to wear people down with our depth, but not sure it's that great in the B1G. (I might be wrong, every other team seems to have more turnover.) On the flip side, it should help inoculate us to injuries starting a losing streak, like what happened with EO last year

 

[Scarlet Shack]

now that 26 of our 30 games are set in stone I think we can begin to layout the path to a tourney bid.

1) dont lose to any of the 6 gimme games vs the likes of umass and bryant with 4 more to be scheduled.

2) of the 4 legit OOC games we have vs power conference opponents + big east. Road game at big east in gavitt and SHU should be quad 1 games, my guess is the ACC game at home with be a Q2 game and i dont know if USCjr will be a top 50 team so therefore theyre probably a quad 2 game in canada. If we can go 3-1 in these games or even split this should put us in damn good shape, going through the OOC sched at 9-1. Even if we split those and go 2-2 it would be important that we snag one quad 1 win and finish OOC play at 8-2.

3) conference play. 20 conference games is a real bitch.

The home/away matchups are illinois, maryland, michigan, nebraska, penn state, purdue, wisconsin.

The home only games are indiana, minny, northwestern

The away only games are iowa, michigan state, ohio state.

Of these 20 games, around 12 should be quad 1 games.

So it’s not just about going lets say 11-9 in conference play and getting to 20-10, the games that you win are important. If we only won 1 quad 1 game in out of conference and then only picked up 2-3 in conference play despite going 11-9 it wouldnt play well. So imo the formula is as follows in conference play.

Vs Illinois- quad 2- win
@ illinois quad 1- win
Vs Maryland- quad 1- win
@ maryland- quad 1- lose
Vs michigan- quad 1- lose
@ michigan quad 1- lose
Vs Nebraska quad 3- win
@ nebraska quad 2- win
Vs penn state- quad 2- win
@penn state- quad 1- lose
Vs purdue- quad 1- win
@purdue- quad 1- lose
Vs wisconsin- quad 1/2- win
@ wisconsin- quad 1- lose
Vs indiana- quad 2- win
Vs minny- quad 2 win
Vs northwestern quad 2 win
@ iowa- quad 1- win
@ mich state- quad 1- lose
@ohio state/ quad 1- lose

Assuming we go 8-2 in OOC splitting the quad 1 games, then go 12-8 in big ten play with the wins above that puts us at 20-10 with 5 quad 1 wins. This would be good for a 9 or 10 seed in the tourney imo. Will it be a challenge, hell yeah. But this is the road map and it’s doable.

To extend ....I Think actually that if we went 12-8/20-10 in your scanairo ..that sets up the big ten tourney

Lose on Thursday ...20-11/10 seed
Win on Thursday, lose on Friday...21-11/8 or 9 seed
Win Thursday, Friday, lose on Saturday...22-11..7/8 seed
Win three and lose in the finals ...23-11...6 seed (15-9 in big ten play)
Win the tourney...24-10 ...five seed (16-8 in big ten play)

 

[biazza38]

I hate speculating this type of stuff. However we are in the fortunate position of playing in the B1G. There are a ton of opportunities to big up wins and put ourselves in a position to be relevant. That being said, look what happened to Indiana this year. They were a solid team who went off on a horrible run in conference play. Proceed with caution. We have talent. Guess what... so does everyone else. Just because we actually have a team of B1G players doesn’t mean we’re going to run off 10-12 B1G wins. That said, I think we should get 8-12

 

[knight82]

We need to finally get a win or two against the four we haven't been able to beat - Michigan, Michigan St, Purdue, Maryland

 

[S.W.A.I.N]

Kiss of Death stuff.

Better be careful or we may not make the postseason for 30 years...

 

[RUChow]

I don't think its to complicated - win 19+ games.

 

[Scarlet83]

Please let the season play out. Your expectations are way too high. Seasons include injuries, transfers & surprise departures & suspensions, WTF losses, staff departures, team chemistry issues.
I’m sure others here could cite other issues.
The college basketball Gawds have never been kind to our favorite team.

The season doesn’t play out for months. It’s OK to have expectations.

We finally have an exciting team. Let’s get excited!

And just like there can be headwinds, such as those that you pointed out, there can be good things and positive surprises too.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

In order to make a jump to NCAA level, you have to flip 6 games from last year to this coming season. The reality is that while it's possible, you really have to be in position to flip 9 or 10 games in order to have some games go against you or for you.

If you find the bac2therac NCAA field projections, every team from 8 to 11 seed range, has 2 to 4 "critical" losses. In order to offset the inevitable losses that fans are going to deem "inexcusable", when they happen to RU.....but when we casually review the dozen or so bubble teams across the country, the pitchforks are going to come out in full force against RU deserving a bid.

My suggestion would be to keep an even keel. The benchmark isn't this one season, it's the next 3 seasons. The benchmark is 2020 recruiting and 2019-2020 player development.

I personally think 2020-2021 is the standard progression that most rebuilds around the country take. It's rare to jump from a 14 to 15 win level to 20 wins.

I don't see a 20 win roster without a significantly better defensive effort and scheme and teams in the B1G rarely trail off.

To make the dance, it requires a sold out RAC and a 7-3 B1G home record. And it cannot be an "entitled or expected" fanbase thinking things have arrived.

Once we have a complete overview of the entire B1G and what players are returning or not, is when we can start to focus on RU finding enough quality games, not necessarily wins.

There has to be a 8 or 9 point swing per B1G game to make the dance. Since I'm not certain we can make up all of those points on just offense, it would take an enormous jump from Myles Johnson and Eugene Omoyuri on both offensive and defensive efficiency to make that happen.

And I am leery about making that leap until I see improvements in FT shooting. Losing Shaq Doorson's attempts automatically improves the team shooting percentages but overall, the team cannot be last in FT shooting and expect to outplay opponents, especially when getting an equal whistle, isn't likely.

 

[Night Man]

If we're going to have an NCAA tourney "birth" in 2020, we should really be planning for what we're going to be doing about 9 months beforehand :)

I'm sure many of us here were unplanned

 

[biazza38]

Man, Hopkins is terrible. Down 7-1. The committee didn’t really think they were more deserving than Cornell and High Point, did they? They’re 8-7. C’mon

 

[TODDB33]

For those in the know can someone explain differences re QUAD. Classificatios for teams.. Can a team go from quad 2 o3 to a higher ranking during the year or lower

 

[Local Shill]

Man, Hopkins is terrible. Down 7-1. The committee didn’t really think they were more deserving than Cornell and High Point, did they? They’re 8-7. C’mon

Watching the game and agree, but wrong board!

 

[RUTrack94]

Please let the season play out. Your expectations are way too high. Seasons include injuries, transfers & surprise departures & suspensions, WTF losses, staff departures, team chemistry issues.
I’m sure others here could cite other issues.
The college basketball Gawds have never been kind to our favorite team.

Need 5-6 WTF wins :)

 

[bac2therac]

For those in the know can someone explain differences re QUAD. Classificatios for teams.. Can a team go from quad 2 o3 to a higher ranking during the year or lower

Yes..changes based on ranking

 

[Mr_Twister]

Please let the season play out. Your expectations are way too high. Seasons include injuries, transfers & surprise departures & suspensions, WTF losses, staff departures, team chemistry issues.
I’m sure others here could cite other issues.
The college basketball Gawds have never been kind to our favorite team.

Bump.

 

[kcg88]

You'll never go broke being a pessimist about Rutgers athletics.

 

[Mr_Twister]

You'll never go broke being a pessimist about Rutgers athletics.

H.L. Mencken couldn’t have said it better.

 

[Mr_Twister]

The Rutgers ticket office must be thrilled with Eugene’s timing. Only thing that would make matters worse is if he transfers to Penn State.

 

[Mr Magoo]

The Rutgers ticket office must be thrilled with Eugene’s timing. Only thing that would make matters worse is if he transfers to Penn State.

The ticket office doesn't even know what planet they are on.

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

Bump.

I actually think were better today than when i posted that. Yeboah is better than eugene. I know for a fact eugene even admitted such. But never thought hed transfer

 

[Mr_Twister]

I actually think were better today than when i posted that. Yeboah is better than eugene. I know for a fact eugene even admitted such. But never thought hed transfer

Are you saying that like the recent coaching change, this is addition by subtraction?