Thanks for checking. Was just thinking it would be a rare feat. We have enough trouble winning any road game, much less 2 in a row
THE OFFICIAL RUTGERS-MARYLAND PREDICTION THREAD
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Rutgers offense is around 300, and MD is at home. So, to even the playing field a bit, yes, we need to shoot/score better than our usual, but we still have to hold them under their average.
Fouls are not bad if you:
1) Don’t foul the shooter
2) Don’t commit more than 9 per half
3) Fouls are all from attempts to steal or trap
4) 7th, 8th, and 9th fouls are committed against the opponent’s worst foul shooters
In no way would only three ‘1 and 1’ FT attempts per half by the opponent’s worst shooters be detrimental.
The benefits outweigh the risks.
6-7-8-9-10. Once you commit foul 6 you are a step closer to 10. We do not want to gibe Maryland foul shots
So we won 4 of the last 6 games against Maryland. 4 home games and 2 away games. Oddly, we lost 2 at home and won 2 away during those 6 games. We won all 4 of our games by double digits. Their 2 wins were by single digits.
We lost the 8 before that.
Like Iowa is a bad match up or they just play better when they see us, we have a similar effect on Maryland.
Julian Reese averages 13.1 ppg and 9.7 rpg (second and first on his team). He averaged 11.4 ppg and 7.2 rpg last year (second and first on his team)
Without going more into the numbers, he's basically struggled every time we've played him. Cliff seems to own this guy. I expect that to continue this year, so good game for Cliff here and bad for Julian.
I say Rutgers squeaks it out behind Cliff's 25 points, Jamir Young gets his points, but we defend the rest well and say the score is 70 Rutgers to 64 Maryland.
We lost the 8 before that.
Like Iowa is a bad match up or they just play better when they see us, we have a similar effect on Maryland.
Julian Reese averages 13.1 ppg and 9.7 rpg (second and first on his team). He averaged 11.4 ppg and 7.2 rpg last year (second and first on his team)
Without going more into the numbers, he's basically struggled every time we've played him. Cliff seems to own this guy. I expect that to continue this year, so good game for Cliff here and bad for Julian.
I say Rutgers squeaks it out behind Cliff's 25 points, Jamir Young gets his points, but we defend the rest well and say the score is 70 Rutgers to 64 Maryland.
We handled Jahmir Young 13pts FG 5-12, Donta Scott 8pts FG 3-10. and Julian Reese 8pts FG 4-5 last year when we beat MD at home 64-50. We handled Geronimo when he was on Indiana. Harris-Smith is the only player that is unfamiliar to Rutgers being a freshman. We beat them the last two years at their library loud arena in 20-21 and 21-22. MD winning @ ILL and @ Iowa doesn't change how we matchup and play against them.
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By that logic we should never play aggressive defense, or try to block a shot, because we’re risking a foul.
Maryland 60
Rutgers 52
We looked horrendous for 23 minutes on Saturday and then Michigan did us a favor. Not happening twice.
Rutgers 52
We looked horrendous for 23 minutes on Saturday and then Michigan did us a favor. Not happening twice.
Right, and when you get to 9 fouls you try not to get the 10th, which was my point.
This is pretty straight forward.....
Jahmir Young will likely get 20+ shots......
Can the rest of Marylands lineup, defeat RU...??
Can Mawot Mag defend Donta Scott?? Probably.....
Can Cliff defend Julian Reese??? Probably......
The frosh guard Harris-Smith will probably draw the assignment of JWill. Advantage RU there too....
I have no idea who guards Simpson or Davis for Maryland, but the more Young has to work on defense, staying with Simpson and/or Davis or even Williams, takes away from his legs and offense.
The Maryland defense is significantly better than Michigan, but RU really didn't shoot well vs Michigan, going 2-13 from 3.....Simpson made 2 3s, Hyatt went 0-4 from 3, Gavin 0-5 from the floor.
The key for RU is limiting 2nd shots. Michigan is WAY better than Maryland offensively. So holding Michigan to 20 2nd half points, is not giving RU enough credit. You can downplay winning by 10 at Michigan if you choose to.....we did so by only making TWO 3 pointers and Michigan made 7.
Cliff really presents the problem for Maryland and now that Ogbole is on the floor when Cliff gets rest, he also "should" be more of a presence in the paint defensively than Wolf. Those free/cheap points teams were getting on Wolf when Cliff exited the game, now is cleaned up.....Ogbole just has to grab a couple of rebounds and get those elbows up.
Should be a very low scoring game and unless the refs get heavily involved with some nonsense, this game should be in RUs wheelhouse.
Why did RU defeat Michigan?? Because they actually made "most" of their layups. What happens if Cliff dunks a couple of times and RU makes their layups OR hits 6 or 7 3s??
2 in a row for the good-guys.....RU by 6+ points.
Jahmir Young will likely get 20+ shots......
Can the rest of Marylands lineup, defeat RU...??
Can Mawot Mag defend Donta Scott?? Probably.....
Can Cliff defend Julian Reese??? Probably......
The frosh guard Harris-Smith will probably draw the assignment of JWill. Advantage RU there too....
I have no idea who guards Simpson or Davis for Maryland, but the more Young has to work on defense, staying with Simpson and/or Davis or even Williams, takes away from his legs and offense.
The Maryland defense is significantly better than Michigan, but RU really didn't shoot well vs Michigan, going 2-13 from 3.....Simpson made 2 3s, Hyatt went 0-4 from 3, Gavin 0-5 from the floor.
The key for RU is limiting 2nd shots. Michigan is WAY better than Maryland offensively. So holding Michigan to 20 2nd half points, is not giving RU enough credit. You can downplay winning by 10 at Michigan if you choose to.....we did so by only making TWO 3 pointers and Michigan made 7.
Cliff really presents the problem for Maryland and now that Ogbole is on the floor when Cliff gets rest, he also "should" be more of a presence in the paint defensively than Wolf. Those free/cheap points teams were getting on Wolf when Cliff exited the game, now is cleaned up.....Ogbole just has to grab a couple of rebounds and get those elbows up.
Should be a very low scoring game and unless the refs get heavily involved with some nonsense, this game should be in RUs wheelhouse.
Why did RU defeat Michigan?? Because they actually made "most" of their layups. What happens if Cliff dunks a couple of times and RU makes their layups OR hits 6 or 7 3s??
2 in a row for the good-guys.....RU by 6+ points.
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So you want Rutgers to get in foul trouble and go to the bench players? That doesn't sound like a recipe for success
One thing I don't think I've seen mentioned.... it's possible that Rutgers played better in the second half after adjusting to JWill in the lineup
Maryland's defense is better, but we should hopefully expect JWill and the team to be more cohesive in game 2 than game 1 with him on the court. As good as JWill played, there were a few buckets I think he gets if he wasn't rusty
Simpson and Davis are quick guard who should be able to play Young better than most. Cliff owns Reese. Mag locks down Scott
I really like the way we matchup to Maryland on paper at least
RU 64
Terps 55
Maryland's defense is better, but we should hopefully expect JWill and the team to be more cohesive in game 2 than game 1 with him on the court. As good as JWill played, there were a few buckets I think he gets if he wasn't rusty
Simpson and Davis are quick guard who should be able to play Young better than most. Cliff owns Reese. Mag locks down Scott
I really like the way we matchup to Maryland on paper at least
RU 64
Terps 55
You also were assuming we only commit non shooting fouls which isn't really plausible. If you commit a "normal" amount of fouls plus add a bunch of intentional non shooting fouls on top of that, how does that not lead to foul trouble?
Whoa, never said we should be intentionally fouling.
The strategy is more about playing aggressive D by going for steals and traps, particularly against the main scoring threat.
If you don’t get the turnover and end up fouling him before the shot, it forces them to restart their offense. This initially takes the ball out of the best player’s hands, and you get to set up your inbounding defense, giving you another chance to get a turnover.
Once you get to 6 fouls, you’re not as aggressive toward that player, but you can still be aggressive and go for steals against the worst foul shooters until you get to 9 fouls. Then you try not to foul at all.
I see two very very similar teams. Game will be much closer than the +7.5 spread we're seeing. I just have a feeling about this one.
RU 62
MD 58
RU 62
MD 58
Ha ha, at 6:30 p.m. on a weeknight, in a basketball arena two miles off the beltway, I don't expect much of a crowd...
Yeah, and I cannot imagine playing a 11-10 (3-7) Rutgers team will do much to motivate Terp fans to show up for this game.
I will say, though, that your team has a really good home record these last two years. But hopefully starting at 6:30 in front of a half empty arena will reduce the home court advantage.
The only thing we’re consistent at is being inconsistent.
Winnable game if most things go well however I just don’t see it going that way in the road.
Another wild card is whether all of our players are feeling fine given Pike had the flu and hopefully he didn’t spread it
Presuming Pike coaches , does he wear a mask again! It may be a good luck 🍀 charm?
Maryland - 67
Rutgers - 60.
Winnable game if most things go well however I just don’t see it going that way in the road.
Another wild card is whether all of our players are feeling fine given Pike had the flu and hopefully he didn’t spread it
Presuming Pike coaches , does he wear a mask again! It may be a good luck 🍀 charm?
Maryland - 67
Rutgers - 60.
Interesting point with the Pike flu that I didn't even think about. Hopefully it isn't going around the locker room
Reese is probably on the All Conference Dirty Team. A mean person who doesn’t shy away from trying to hurt someone which is quite unfortunate.
Cliff needs to reign in his emotions, as he is prone to getting overly emotional when opposing players get under his skin, and JuJu Reese can get under opposing players’ skin with the best of ‘em.
True but would you rather see overly emotional or not engaged? Both are not the versions of Cliff that we need
I think Cliff doesn't like Reese and wants to have a dominate game which should be a plus especially if he can get an early bucket
Yes. I forget when, but yes.
Edit: @Purdue Jan 2, 2023 RU 65 - Purdue 64
@nw Jan 11, 2023 RU 64 - NW 50
💥
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Bad call by me. That place was more than half empty. Terrible atmosphere last night. The only minor sign of life was toward the end when Simpson gifted it to them.
It's always surprising to me that Maryland with It's successes in many sports, has relatively poor student and fan support. Many kids who are big sport fans who attend there seem to have lost interest in attending sporting events. Lack of school spirit?
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