THE OFFICIAL RUTGERS-NEBRASKA PREDICTION THREAD

[Greene Rice FIG]

Of course it is. Winnable league game on the road against a team we are favored against.

St. Bonnie's was a must win game that we lost that is no longer a must win game.

Only way tonight is a must win game if you think we are a 100-150th ranked team with ZERO margin of error. Teams that fancy themselves sub 60th ranked have margins of error...especially 10% through their conference schedule.

 

[RUSCFORMERLYRULOU]

St. Bonnie's was a must win game that we lost that is no longer a must win game.

Only way tonight is a must win game if you think we are a 100-150th ranked team with ZERO margin of error. Teams that fancy themselves sub 60th ranked have margins of error...especially 10% through their conference schedule.

That was our annual WTF game

 

[kcg88]

Nebraska is going to beat at least two B10 teams that will eventually make the tournament.

 

[fluoxetine]

So not true,

18+ more games after this one. There are infinite paths to 10-8 or 11-8 or even 10-9 with a loss tonight.

Using Bart probs (obv ignoring any ranking change that occurs as a result of the games)

Before tonight
Chance 10-10 or better : 70.3%
Chance 11-9 or better : 50.4%

With win
10-10 + : 74.9%
11-9 + : 55.3%

With loss
10-10 + : 55.3%
11-9 + : 34.3%

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

it defintely takes a bite out of our NCAA chances, but far from eliminates it. Game is FAR from a must win.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

The thought process that the schedule is unbalanced,,,,

Based on bart probabilities ....there are no 4 game stretches where going 1-3 or worse is a higher probability than going 2-2 or better

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Fri 1-03 A Nebraska 76%
Tue 1-07 H Penn St. 59%
Sat 1-11 A Illinois 45%
Wed 1-15 H Indiana 69%
Sun 1-19 H Minnesota 62%
Wed 1-22 A Iowa 31%
Sat 1-25 H Nebraska 91%
Tue 1-28 H Purdue 53%
Sat 2-01 N Michigan 41%
Tue 2-04 A Maryland 33%
Sun 2-09 H Northwestern 87%
Wed 2-12 A Ohio St. 15%
Sat 2-15 H Illinois 73%
Wed 2-19 H Michigan 56%
Sun 2-23 A Wisconsin 33%
Wed 2-26 A Penn St. 31%
Tue 3-03 H Maryland 62%
Sat 3-07 A Purdue 25%

 

[RUJMM78]

it defintely takes a bite out of our NCAA chances, but far from eliminates it. Game is FAR from a must win.

I disagree because two wins against Nebraska have to be part of a NCAA scenario because remaining road games will be far more difficult and might be all losses.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I disagree because two wins against Nebraska have to be part of a NCAA scenario because remaining road games will be far more difficult and might be all losses.

Is Illinois at home a must win too?
Is Indiana at home a must win too?

Way Way Way to early, provided we are a good team, to be at must win.

This is more 19+ coin flips than people think.

 

[Cornicator]

This is a weird team we are facing. They seem to play to their level of competition.

In 3 games vs Top 100 competition....
Cam, Thor and Dachon are 24-48 from 3.

I have a real bad feeling about this one

I don't think they play "DOWN" to their competition. They really can't stop any opponent, whether its low major, mid major, or high major.

Defensively, they're an abomination. This is compounded by absolutely putrid defensive rebounding. Their other problem is free throw shooting. Nebraska is athletic enough to get to the basket. Opponents are putting them on the charity stripe, but they're leaving a staggering amount of points off the scoreboard. - ONLY 59%

Imagine giving up a two on the defensive end every other trip down the floor. Then imagine going to the line on each of your return trips, but constantly missing either 1 or both free throws. Its a recipe for a loss, regardless of opponent.

As bizarre as it sounds, one big reason they beat Purdue is they never had to go to the free throw line until the last minute of the game.

Huskers have a positive assist to turnover ratio. They force steals out on the perimeter. They have some good offensive skill, and Cam Mack is potentially the quickest ball handler in the Big Ten.

Hoiberg will be fine next year and beyond with all the talent they have sitting on the bench this season. But this year is going to be rough, and its a nice timing for a team like Rutgers wanting to get a conference road win.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Wow...Trevion Williams killed you guys with 10 OREB and 18 points in only 23 minutes.

This is something to look for.

 

[brianoc]

68 62 RU

 

[RUJMM78]

St. Bonnie's was a must win game that we lost that is no longer a must win game.

Only way tonight is a must win game if you think we are a 100-150th ranked team with ZERO margin of error. Teams that fancy themselves sub 60th ranked have margins of error...especially 10% through their conference schedule.

What I know is that Rutgers has a long history of futility on the road which translates to difficulty even achieving a winning season.This is a must win because Rutgers has a realistic chance of winning on the road.

 

[FastMJ]

Rutgers 74 Nebraska 72

 

[FELONIOUSMONK]

Jeez. Cant we just wait for the games? We

 

[ru66]

Jeez. Cant we just wait for the games? We

YUP. and we went from hoping for a NIT bid to discussing NCAA's--we should expect ups and downs this season and not jump off band wagaon as some do regularly

 

[Vegas pj]

RU just took a huge hit with Geo's hand injury.

 

[brianoc]

Without GEO, 71 63 NEB

 

[BROTHERSKINNY]

RU 70 - 67 Neb