THE OFFICIAL RUTGERS-WISCONSIN PREDICTION THREAD

[RuBird]

J Williams with a RHJ like 3 at the buzzer

RU 62
Wisconsin 61

 

[darkcheck]

Rutgers 59 Wisky 54

 

[Westcoast]

Every time we think we have a conference opponent right where we want them and we "should" win a game, we fall flat on our faces.

Wisconsin 64
Rutgers 55

 

[fluoxetine]

Let's simplify it.....

Michigan was a 4 point favorite over RU....Michigan lost by 10 PTS. That's accounting for Michigan being very good offensively AND a horrific last 30 seconds of the 1st half where it was 35-30 & a Simpson turnover and inability to control the ball for the final shot was a 4 point swing. Does that happen if JWilliams is on the floor and dribbles the ball and holds for 1 shot??? ....does Simpson go out of control more often if JWill is off the court?? Probably.

Maryland was a 7.5 to 8 point favorite and lost by 3 points....Did RU dictate the tempo of the game?? Yes.....was the score pushed to a 9 point lead with around 3 minutes left, when Simpson scored and got T'd up??? Yes....would the score have been just a 3 point win, without the Tech called?? Not likely.....I can say it is 50/50 that Maryland even scores down. 9 with under 3 minutes left.....if RU gets one stop and cleans the glass on a Maryland miss, if there's no tech called, RU would have the ball, up 9 with 2:30 left in the game.....I feel fairly certain that margin of victory is closer to 6 or 7 points than 3.....we gifted them 2 FTS to start.

Keep in mind I have a point spread set by Vegas that factors in all of whatever categories or efficiency models people want to cling onto. I am just watching where our opponents are "most likely", to score against RU and the biggest factors cleaned up, are adding another capable rebounder in JWill and Ogbole and how many easy baskets or 2nd shots, are allowed when Cliff is off the floor and Ogbole is in the court.

And that factors in ZERO made 3s from 2 of our capable shooters in Griffiths and Hyatt. The likelihood of Hyatt and Griffiths not making any 3s the remainder of the season is 0.0%.

If Mag is willing to drive and score and take 3s AND those possessions end with an actual shot attempt instead of a turnover (I am assuming JWill takes better shots in his minutes than whoever would have played those minutes in his place), all those metrics are essentially useless for the 1st 20 games.

Can you acknowledge that J. Williams transforming Rutgers from the #95 team to the #7 team is a tad optimistic?

This is the problem with the eye test people; they so often get the direction right on things but are so far off on the magnitude that it makes it effectively useless.

 

[fluoxetine]

Every time we think we have a conference opponent right where we want them and we "should" win a game, we fall flat on our faces.

Wisconsin 64
Rutgers 55

It’s the reverse board sentiment theorem. It’s not undefeated, but it has a good track record.

 

[bac2therac]

Can you acknowledge that J. Williams transforming Rutgers from the #95 team to the #7 team is a tad optimistic?

This is the problem with the eye test people; they so often get the direction right on things but are so far off on the magnitude that it makes it effectively useless.

What are the probabilities on Wisconsin losing 4 in a row?

 

[Scangg]

What are the probabilities on Wisconsin losing 4 in a row?

100%

 

[Scangg]

Let's simplify it.....

Michigan was a 4 point favorite over RU....Michigan lost by 10 PTS. That's accounting for Michigan being very good offensively AND a horrific last 30 seconds of the 1st half where it was 35-30 & a Simpson turnover and inability to control the ball for the final shot was a 4 point swing. Does that happen if JWilliams is on the floor and dribbles the ball and holds for 1 shot??? ....does Simpson go out of control more often if JWill is off the court?? Probably.

Maryland was a 7.5 to 8 point favorite and lost by 3 points....Did RU dictate the tempo of the game?? Yes.....was the score pushed to a 9 point lead with around 3 minutes left, when Simpson scored and got T'd up??? Yes....would the score have been just a 3 point win, without the Tech called?? Not likely.....I can say it is 50/50 that Maryland even scores down. 9 with under 3 minutes left.....if RU gets one stop and cleans the glass on a Maryland miss, if there's no tech called, RU would have the ball, up 9 with 2:30 left in the game.....I feel fairly certain that margin of victory is closer to 6 or 7 points than 3.....we gifted them 2 FTS to start.

Keep in mind I have a point spread set by Vegas that factors in all of whatever categories or efficiency models people want to cling onto. I am just watching where our opponents are "most likely", to score against RU and the biggest factors cleaned up, are adding another capable rebounder in JWill and Ogbole and how many easy baskets or 2nd shots, are allowed when Cliff is off the floor and Ogbole is in the court.

And that factors in ZERO made 3s from 2 of our capable shooters in Griffiths and Hyatt. The likelihood of Hyatt and Griffiths not making any 3s the remainder of the season is 0.0%.

If Mag is willing to drive and score and take 3s AND those possessions end with an actual shot attempt instead of a turnover (I am assuming JWill takes better shots in his minutes than whoever would have played those minutes in his place), all those metrics are essentially useless for the 1st 20 games.

So you're saying 12 points due to 10-15 specific possessions throughout the game where there would be a better play due to JWill and or Ogbole being on the court... I think I get what you're saying. I somewhat agree, but 12 is still a lot... if we are 12 points better a game, we probably should only lose a game or two rest of season

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

So you're saying 12 points due to 10-15 specific possessions throughout the game where there would be a better play due to JWill and or Ogbole being on the court... I think I get what you're saying. I somewhat agree, but 12 is still a lot... if we are 12 points better a game, we probably should only lose a game or two rest of season

That's pretty much what I'm saying......no game or oppoment is out of reach going forward, home or away.

 

[RUGiddy777]

Anyone have the Knights putting up 80 and winning by 22?

 

[Loyal_2RU]

Anyone have the Knights putting up 80 and winning by 22?

No. But I never could see how Wisky got out with a win.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

Leave Hawk alone.
Much respect for the call today

 

[Scarlet Blind]

Our 2nd best Offensively Efficient game at 117.3 behind only Seton Hall at 118.7

Our 3rd best Defensively Efficient game at 76.1 behind Indiana 75.7 and St Peter's 74.5

 

[fluoxetine]

What are the probabilities on Wisconsin losing 4 in a row?

It’s not the right question. Once you’ve lost three in a row the probability is the same as the probability that you lose the next game. Heads doesn’t become more likely after 10 tails in a row.