TheKnightReport - Tracking the plus / minus for each Rutgers Basketball play this 2023-24 sea
Tracking the Rutgers Basketball team's plus / minus from every player in every game this 2023-24 season.
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Basketball Tracking the + / - for each hoops player this season
- Thread starter Richie O
- Start date
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Ouch..surprised by Cliff's +/- in big ten play but I guess it's to be expected with the current record.
This is why I have been saying over and over why are we playing Gavin! He barely plays and a huge minus
This is going to be very biased by the way Pike subs.. the backups are often playing together which will hurt all of their +/-. These stats are honestly useless without doing a lot of adjustments.
So the best player +/- for the entire season is Derek Simpson?
Good to know.
Must not say I told you so…
Irony?
Good to know.
Must not say I told you so…
Irony?
Derek does so many good things that go unnoticed by most of the people on this board. Best rebounder on the team, best defensive player, best free throw shooter, fastest player. The plus/minus confirms it
Drives me crazy. Knew it all along. Hustle. Leading in assists until JWill came along
Actually… I like Derek, but if your looking at it this way (which is garbage math anyway - but Nevermind that for a minute) - the reality for Derek is:
Games his +/- was bottom 2 of any position players:
Worst:
Illinois, WF, Purdue (g2)
Second worst:
SHU, OSU, Iowa, Purdue (g5)
So in summary, he had the worst or second worst +/- on the team in 7 of our “real” games.
I’m not looking to pick on Derek. The point is it’s a garbage stat since it’s a blended average. If you look at it game by game for Derek only it can tell you which games he was good Derek and which ones he sucked. That’s about it.
there was math in that post? I thought it just said something along the lines of “if you only count the games Simpson is the best in then he’s the best”
You're a sad man or boy. Your hatred of the two guys with our best +\- shows your lack of Basketball IQ too.
Garbage post for a fan who's usually pretty good. If you don't like the stat why use it to kill one of our best players. That's garbage.
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He has improved on D. He is pressing on Offense now. I think his D initially affected his O. He'll be fine next year IMO. I'm still hoping guys like him or Noah or Oskar get hot down the stretch.
Good overall post but not best rebounder. He does a lot of good things. Mag and Cliff are our two best Defenders but Derek has upped that part of his game for sure and his trajectory gives me a lot of hope for him going forward.
This isn't too difficult to figure out in a way. Outside of JWill and Cliff, we need upgrades across the board from the starters. Mag numbers are kinda skewed by not playing vs Purdue, where everyone took a bath in negative numbers.
The JWill impact is pretty clear if you watched the games when he was paired on the floor with other starters. The goal would be to find another 2 way wing as a starter to help Ace Bailey next year.
Gavin and a strong final 5 games and B1G tournament, would really change the path of approach for the offseason. If he improves a bit down the stretch, I'd probably look for the staff to find another 6'4 to 6'6 guard who can handle the ball, shoot from 3 and playmake off the bounce. That would make Davis or Simpson the 4th/5th guard and push Gavin to be the backup wing/3rd guard.
The JWill impact is pretty clear if you watched the games when he was paired on the floor with other starters. The goal would be to find another 2 way wing as a starter to help Ace Bailey next year.
Gavin and a strong final 5 games and B1G tournament, would really change the path of approach for the offseason. If he improves a bit down the stretch, I'd probably look for the staff to find another 6'4 to 6'6 guard who can handle the ball, shoot from 3 and playmake off the bounce. That would make Davis or Simpson the 4th/5th guard and push Gavin to be the backup wing/3rd guard.
You’re not picking on him? But when all is said and done still by far the best on the team for the season. In fact he is 17 +/-better than the next best player and more than double than half of them.
And his comeback almost single handily carried the day at OSU in one of his “worst” games in your definition of cherry picking “real” games.
I also stuck to the best in a game. Little intellectually dishonest to change it to “bottom 2” to fit narrative. Why not change it to bottom 3? SMH
And when are blended averages, stats, a bad thing? Stats prove for the whole year that he has been best player on the team. You can’t manipulate the result with the math you don’t like.
One poster above him has him as the 4th or 5th best guard on the team next year.
Ridiculous. First guard off the bench if not starter with Harper as two guards.
I am assuming Ace is shooting forward.
Most of you focusing on shooting and forgetting he has been by far the best defensive player on the team this year and the best free foul shooter as well as the primary ball handler. NW game one turnover the entire game. His assists and rebounds have improved by the game.
Nobody can ever challenge his effort or hustle
One bad game at Purdue where everyone was awful and again venom directed at Simpson. Crazy.
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I like Derek as a player. He’s an excellent defensive player and does a lot of good things not reflected in the stat book. On an individual game basis, +/- info can be useful. I’m not trashing Derek or even the metric itself, rather the blended average aspect of it. I dislike it for SOS and many other data points too but it’s particularly bad for this metric - especially with respect to G-Units direct comment.
He said Simpson had the best +/- in 3 (half) of our conference wins and seems to be attributing that, more than anything else to his standout overall season +/- of 50 (as if for some reason the numbers from those games matter more in the calculation than any other games). It’s simply not true - they all count the same. Including the games against the LIU types where he picked up a boat load of points towards that aggregate score of 50.
To be clear again - I really like Derek. His individual game +/- stats do accurately reflect his excellent performances against Nebraska and Indiana, for example, but that’s about all it’s good for.
He has definitely improved on D. A lot. He is still bad on D though. He is now passable and maybe a guy who can end up being like Cam on D….not a good on ball defender, but long and get deflections.
Yes - the OSU game highlights the point that +/- can be a flawed metric. Derek played almost the whole game and we fouled intentionally at the end.
The point I’m making is that you suggested that by him having the best +/- data in 50% (3) BIG wins this is somehow meaningful relative information and the reason why he leads the team in this metric. The math (which as you point out is flawed anyway) doesn’t support this. The math, when you look at individual games, says his performance across BIG games, WF, SHU, Princeton, Miss State and Georgetown was net average at best when aggregated and his +50 reflects standout performance in this metric against cupcakes. Not that this means anything about him as a player one way or the other. It’s just that what you said doesn’t either.
We have six wins in the B1G. Three of those wins Simpson had the highest +/- . That means something. Half of our wins.
No other RU player has done that. Means something.
Simpson having the highest metrical all season means something.
Not only highest but highest by a ton.
That means something.
So poo poo these stats and metrics at your own peril.
🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗🦗from all the Simpson bashers.
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Not fair to break it out that way because we lost a lot of games in conference play thus the guys who play a lot of minutes are going to have worse numbers. Cliff is a good example of that
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For the 3rd time - I am not “pooing” the metrics to knock Simpson down. There are other reasons to defend Simpson. I think he deserves his minutes and gives us the best chance to win right now with his defense and hustle.
That said - you clearly do not understand how this calculation works if you think the number means anything. Since your all about comparing Simpson to Davis - the difference between their aggregate numbers is quite literally the Howard and St Peters games. We won both games easily and scored steadily throughout both the games regardless of who was in. Simpson played more minutes (14). You understand what I’m saying right - whoever played more in those kind of games absorbed more of the MOV benefit on +/- . Fluox - can you help me out here? Maybe I’m not explaining it right.
On the other thing I don’t even know where to begin. You simply have the correlation all mixed up. Simpson is a high usage player who plays big minutes. It is logical that we won the handful of games where the MOV was high in our favor while he was on the court. I’d expect that correlation to be there. We are 6-9 though. So I’m not sure what point you are trying to make. This metric does not prove a point about Simpson’s value. It just doesnt. Fluox help!
And again all things being equal, Simpson comes out the highest.
You don’t like it, I get it!
We get it that the stat is not perfect however the biggest stat that proves you are undervaluing Simpson is minutes played. Unless you think Pike is a complete buffoon, then this stat proves that Simpson is far move valuable to the team than you think.
Not saying he is great but just the best guard we have right now
This is what I don't get about this thread. I would think everyone would understand that Jeremiah Williams is by far the best player on the team. Did anyone notice the 4 game win streak when he started to play? The offense looks better with him, cliff looks better with him, Noah Fernandes looks better with him. I've actually become more bullish on Simpsons future because of his effort and intangibles but I don't understand what you guys are arguing here? The +/- in big ten play is the only one I even look at. That's what matters the most, yes it makes the guys look bad but this team is bad. Before Jeremiah Williams came back; Simpson operated in the roll he eventually would take on. He has relinquished some of that back to Simpson with the bad ankle and fatigue. Ironically the team lost the last two games with him hobbled. Let's not act crazy here, Jeremiah Williams is the best player and it's really not close. Simpson is having a good year though, despite the shooting..
I was just responding to the part about why the stat isn't that useful. It's not. It has nothing to do with Simpson. I think Simpson does pretty much everything well except shoot the damn ball. I agree he is/was the best guard on this team (at least until J. Williams came back) but that says something about the team as much as it does about Simpson. He would not be the best guard on a good team.
If you just forget about Simpson for a second, the season-long +/- here also says that Wolf is better than Cliff.
Funny that everyone sees the offense being much better since J Will arrived, and that's resulted in 1 extra point a game in conference play.
Doesn't say he's better, just that the team hasn't been outscored when he's on the floor. Makes sense, Wolf isn't out there a ton, and there were many times early season that the team appeared to play better around AW than it did CO.
