Trendlines.....

[NewJerseyHawk]

So after 9 games there is limited information and a lot of new players to get acclimated to. But not just looking at the stats, i wanted to rewind what stood out when RU looked or played better and what happened when RU didn't play well.

The consistent item that jumps out is Peter Kiss.

Here's the breakdown BUT i believe is a little complicated because you have matchups, offense and defense.

Overall Kiss is 15 for 41 from 3, which is a 37% clip and I'd sign up for 37% all season long.......if you take away the 1st 2 games, where he was a combined 4 of 5 from 3, he is 11-36....which is 31% and closer to where I would think he would be with defenses aware that he's a shooting threat....still significantly better than what RU usually gets but the splits are drastic enough that it jumps off the page....when he shoots well, RU looks better.

St. John's 1-4 from 3......2 of 9 overall.

Boston University...0 of 3 from 3....0-5 overall.

Fordham...0-3 from 3.....2 -9 overall

In 2 of the 3 gamea above, RU looks at its worse, even though Boston University was a win, it wasn't a pretty game or lacked that spark.

Eastern Michigan 3 of 6 from 3...3-11 overall.

Miami 2 of 6 from 3...5 of 10 overall.

Michigan State 3 of 9 from 3...4-12 overall

Wisconsin...2 of 5 from 3...5 of 11 overall

In these other 4 games Kiss plays good defense and others where he is just OK but his shooting kept RU in games like Wisconsin, helped win a big road game at Miami...also helped RU stay competitive vs MSU.

This is not to say RU can only thrive when Kiss plays well....it's a small sample of the last 7 games.

The good news....we have LOTS of new options to go to that are just 9 games into their 1st year here. And others that could make a jump up, but haven't yet.

Thiam is a capable shooter, Mathis can score if given more opportunities to create his own offense, he's capable of drawing contact and getting to the FT line.

Harper can do both, score inside and an able and willing 3 point shooter. Being willing to shoot from 3, is actually more beneficial than not being a threat at all....also have found 8 or so points in each of the last 2 games from Shaq Carter inside, finding position on the offensive glass.

There's a sorting out process that is violently taking place and looks chaotic.....these samples are new and unknown for us....and new and unknown for the coaching staff as well.

I am not certain that Peter Kiss is an indefinite trendline for the rest of the season, but he factors in to play 25 to 30 minutes most nights, so he's going to be on the court.

What the staff does to bottle and see if Shaq Carter can continue his offensive rebounding work is nice....Can they decide to run a play for him against another Power Forward who isnt a shot blocker??....or can they run something for Myles Johnson, if he stays out of foul trouble??

Can RU stay competitive with Kiss potentially not shooting well and Issa Thiam not getting shot attempts or looking for his offense?? Can Thiam generate his own offense, if Kiss is taken away by opponents game plans???... Most guards in the B1G are certainly capable size and quickness wise, in guarding a Kiss....and Thiam is guardable, if you crowd him.

A lot of these questions ( to me) will take time for the freshman to sort out and get more acclimated...in time, the freshman are the wild cards that can break this trendline of Kiss playing well and a lesser extent, hoping for Thiam to breakout....As they get more time, there will be ups and downs for sure.

Kiss also needs to draw fouls, he hasnt been to the FT line in 4 straight games....he's a good FT shooter, my guess would be, running a couple of plays for him early in each half may solve these slow starts....get him going and RU looks better..... get him moving, drawing contact and to the line 2 to 3 times a game, may give him a scoring boost vs relying on only 3 pointers.

Lots of moving parts, will take some time to get organized and the B1G schedule will quickly become a way to know how fast these freshmen can go....Or it will be RU goes as Kiss does....assuming Baker and Eugene are 1 and 1A and the frosh aren't getting more and more minutes to break the trendline.

 

[RUBigFrank]

Would agree here.

Also - when Issa hit a three yesterday - it looked like the Knights were on their way to a win.

 

[SirScarlet]

So after 9 games there is limited information and a lot of new players to get acclimated to. But not just looking at the stats, i wanted to rewind what stood out when RU looked or played better and what happened when RU didn't play well.

The consistent item that jumps out is Peter Kiss.

Here's the breakdown BUT i believe is a little complicated because you have matchups, offense and defense.

Overall Kiss is 15 for 41 from 3, which is a 37% clip and I'd sign up for 37% all season long.......if you take away the 1st 2 games, where he was a combined 4 of 5 from 3, he is 11-36....which is 31% and closer to where I would think he would be with defenses aware that he's a shooting threat....still significantly better than what RU usually gets but the splits are drastic enough that it jumps off the page....when he shoots well, RU looks better.

St. John's 1-4 from 3......2 of 9 overall.

Boston University...0 of 3 from 3....0-5 overall.

Fordham...0-3 from 3.....2 -9 overall

In 2 of the 3 gamea above, RU looks at its worse, even though Boston University was a win, it wasn't a pretty game or lacked that spark.

Eastern Michigan 3 of 6 from 3...3-11 overall.

Miami 2 of 6 from 3...5 of 10 overall.

Michigan State 3 of 9 from 3...4-12 overall

Wisconsin...2 of 5 from 3...5 of 11 overall

In these other 4 games Kiss plays good defense and others where he is just OK but his shooting kept RU in games like Wisconsin, helped win a big road game at Miami...also helped RU stay competitive vs MSU.

This is not to say RU can only thrive when Kiss plays well....it's a small sample of the last 7 games.

The good news....we have LOTS of new options to go to that are just 9 games into their 1st year here. And others that could make a jump up, but haven't yet.

Thiam is a capable shooter, Mathis can score if given more opportunities to create his own offense, he's capable of drawing contact and getting to the FT line.

Harper can do both, score inside and an able and willing 3 point shooter. Being willing to shoot from 3, is actually more beneficial than not being a threat at all....also have found 8 or so points in each of the last 2 games from Shaq Carter inside, finding position on the offensive glass.

There's a sorting out process that is violently and uncertain that takes place with this many new pieces. I am not certain that Peter Kiss is an indefinite trendline for the rest of the season, but he factors in to play 25 to 30 minutes most nights, so he's going to be on the court.

What the staff does to bottle and see if Shaq Carter can continue his offensive rebounding work is nice....Can they decide to run a play for him against another Power Forward who isnt a shot blocker??

Can RU stay competitive with Kiss potentially not shooting well and Issa Thiam not getting shot attempts or looking for his offense?? Can Thiam generate his own offense, if Kiss is taken away by opponents game plans. Most guards in the B1G are certainly capable size and quickness wise, in guarding a Kiss.

A lot of these questions ( to me) will take time for the freshman to sort out and get more acclimated...in time, the freshman are the wild cards that can break this trendline of Kiss playing well and a lesser extent, hoping for Thiam to breakout....As they get more time, there will be ups and downs for sure.

Kiss also needs to draw fouls, he hasnt been to the FT line in 4 straight games....he's a good FT shooter, my guess would be, running a couple of plays for him, that can get him moving, drawing contact and to the line for 4 times a game, may give him a scoring boost.

Lots of moving parts, will take some time to get organized and the B1G schedule will quickly become a very quick way to know how fast these freshmen can go....Or it will be RU goes as Kiss does....assuming Baker and Eugene are 1 and 1A and the frosh aren't getting more and more minutes to break the trendline.

Spot on, Hawk. In essence we need scoring options when Geo is not having his A to A+ game. Yesterday was SCREAMING for Kiss to step up...what has me super bothered is he literally gave up his opportunities to step up, which is the opposite of everything we have read about Kiss in the offseason. At the end of the day, he is a kid so I dont want to put too much of this on him, but I think (hope?) Pike going to Tez and/or Harper will spark some competitive juices to get him going.

Had he stepped up yesterday, but fell short...i actually would have been ok. But he backed away from the chance which at the end of the day sealed our fate yesterday.

I know many people - including myself - are frustrated with yesterdays game. Our staff needed to find a way to guide us to a win. IMHO, this team is so inexperienced and light on guaranteed scoring that Pike and Co are going to have many more games like yesterday where they're going to need to push the right buttons...yesterday they fell down...they will get many many more chances to get it right but I can guarantee you that if Kiss doesn't start playing like a kid who wants the ball then this season has a high probably of getting ugly.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Would agree here.

Also - when Issa hit a three yesterday - it looked like the Knights were on their way to a win.

Thiam requires a fast break to get to the 3 point line, before a defense can locate him. He probably would thrive more in an up tempo game. The problem is you're asking for a team that just got a rebound to push the ball and do you want a quick 3 pointer less than 10 seconds after you just earned it on the defensive end. Once in awhile, i would rather take the 1st open look vs not.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Spot on, Hawk. In essence we need scoring options when Geo is not having his A to A+ game. Yesterday was SCREAMING for Kiss to step up...what has me super bothered is he literally gave up his opportunities to step up, which is the opposite of everything we have read about Kiss in the offseason. At the end of the day, he is a kid so I dont want to put too much of this on him, but I think (hope?) Pike going to Tez and/or Harper will spark some competitive juices to get him going.

Had he stepped up yesterday, but fell short...i actually would have been ok. But he backed away from the chance which at the end of the day sealed our fate yesterday.

I know many people - including myself - are frustrated with yesterdays game. Our staff needed to find a way to guide us to a win. IMHO, this team is so inexperienced and light on guaranteed scoring that Pike and Co are going to have many more games like yesterday where they're going to need to push the right buttons...yesterday they fell down...they will get many many more chances to get it right but I can guarantee you that if Kiss doesn't start playing like a kid who wants the ball then this season has a high probably of getting ugly.

I'm not quite sure that's what I am driving at as much as a trend standing out. I don't view Kiss as a player capable of getting his own offense. He played that way at Quinnipiac and he had some very good stat lines for Seton Hall and Gonzaga....but extended stretches of not so good shooting.

The question is can he get his own shot on his own, in the B1G or can the staff find a balance to get him shot attempts.

I am not quite sure yet that long term, he is capable of hunting down his own offense. That's where the frosh and Carter factor in. But against a Fordham, it would have been nice to get 13 to 14 points out of Kiss.

Harper and Mathis are the longer term options IMO...we got 70 points which should be enough vs a Fordham....the defense yesterday was more of an issue vs Nick Honor, than isolating Peter Kiss specifically.

 

[rufeelinit]

I know why you isolated on Kiss since he is a guy who has gotten steady minutes in each game thus far, but the bottom line is we need another reliable offensive threat. Candidates are Kiss, Thiam, Harper and Mathis. Who, depends on the style of game we are going to play. All but Montez, would benefit from an effective drive and kick point guard which we don't have. Montez, and to a lesser extent Harper, are more fearless and willing to take it to the rim. Kiss is the most mature and like Issa, would benefit from a more structured offense that creates open looks for spot up shooters. If the shots don't go down is one thing but we need to create more open looks.

IMO Geo and EO are at their worst when they start feeling like they need to carry the offense and start pounding the rock and taking shots with higher degrees of difficulty. I thought our offensive ball movement yesterday was not good. We also got little in transition. All of this was magnified in the second half when we stopped rebounding and let Honor really go off.

We know Pike values defense and wants to play man to man, but it was apparent again yesterday that we have guys who get exposed off the dribble and have trouble working through screens. Shaq did not hedge well but I am not sure if this was different from other games or Fordham just did a better job exposing it. If the shooting remains inconsistent, then Montez and Issa are going to get the most opportunities to score because in IMO they are better defenders than Kiss and Harper right now. I think Kiss is OK depending on the match up. Harper seems to lack a little foot speed.

Shaq Carter is the current favorite amongst the bigs and he shows some promise. He seems to have good hands and will bang and finish in close to the rim opportunities. While he has worked very hard, I think an increase in winning games may coincide with Shaq Doorson getting limited minutes because the other bigs are just more talented on both ends of the floor. We need Myles Johnson to develop into a legitimate post threat.

So a very bad and sobering loss yesterday that will linger heading into the SHU game. We looked like a team similar to the last two years rather than one that has improved. I know we are young, but I want that to be the reason for struggles against the better teams we play not Fordham.

 

[Rhuarc]

This game demonstrated our true lack of depth. We may have bodies but we don't have scoring depth or experience. Our shooters are better than last year, but who wouldn't be? These results are pretty much what I expected. Maybe not a loss to Fordham but inconsistent play with occasional flashes of brilliance and hot shooting.

 

[Duff366]

The rest of the season we need to get Mathis and Harper a ton of PT and run some sets for them. They're offensive growth will determine if we become a good team down the line. Pike also needs them to get the ball into the interior, Myles Johnson needs to get the ball when he posts up and Shaq Carter needs to get the ball back on pick and rolls.

I am seeing some bad trends with the hero ball like last year and that's partly because Geo and Eugene feel like they have to do too much but they have to have more balance, RU is too easy to defend now.

 

[bac2therac]

The coaching staff needs to put trust in Carter, Mathis, and Harper to make plays. I think they have been a little cautious this far with them but it's obvious that Thiam and Kiss are not generating enough of what the team needs on a consistent basis so we need to shore up other options

 

[Jim_from_RU]

When Young and Mulcahy suit up next year, we win games like this.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Youth was not an issue yesterday...i also am willing to take some shots this year.

The question is team dynamics with younger players that need playing time. How do you integrate Harper, Mathis and Carter while hopefully finding time for McConnell as well.

McConnell needs more chances to play in the next month or two. I don't see a formula of sustainable growth where Eugene is the focal point of your offense inside.

Eugene's value is to use some inside game against a bigger opponent he will see in the B1G AND dragging that big away from the basket and shooting a 3 pointer.

The recent Eugene of pounding dribbles and looking to make passes is not quality offense. The ball has to move and we have to find the open player that can then shoot or get something off the dribble.

Playing experience or upperclassmen that are limited, doesn't equate to success or growth. The poster above mentioned Doorson and Thiam....been in the program and probably best suited as complimentary pieces off the bench vs starting games.

I would be shocked if Mathis and Carter or Harper aren't in the starting lineup or playing much more. It's not an if as much as when.

 

[YoucancallmeRay]

Agree with most everything posted in this thread. It was a bad loss, no doubt. RU, however, did fight back and went ahead by two with 7 minutes left. Fordham scored the next ten in a row without missing a shot. The areas of concern, imo, are first, where is scoring going to come from (in addition to EO) if Geo has an off game or gets into foul trouble? Kiss, Issa, and the freshmen have all had moments, but more consistency is needed. Second, the center position needs to have more of an impact. Yesterday, they let themselves get out rebounded in the second half and needed better efforts defensively. I don't think any of them are ready to shoulder much as an offensive weapon just yet, so I'm not expecting that. I'm still excited for this team, but it's young and inconsistent.

 

[RUBigFrank]

Would Thiam's defense made a difference?

Seems the three at he end of the half was a major momentum change.

Out hustled on the defensive boards.

 

[biazza38]

I agree with this. Basically we have a lot of parts at the guard position and we’re waiting to see who will shine. Mathis, Harper, McConnell, and Kiss are all B1G players. No doubt in my mind. Toss in Young and Mulchahy next year and you start to have some flexibility. The question is who will be that next scorer?

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

When Young and Mulcahy suit up next year, we win games like this.

While in theory that makes sense because more scoring and passing threats matter, there has to be a carved out role for each player.

In order for Mulcahy and Young to contribute, both players need touches...that means less touches for Eugene and Baker with the ball less. I don't see Baker and Eugene as selfish players, but belief they have do this as team leaders with unproven commodities is a whole other item.

It's a constant adjusting of roles...if you had Jacob Young this year, things would look dramatically different in flow and offensive tempo. You would have a player capable of getting off the dribble and scoring now....you would have roles still to sort out but would only require Mulcahy to learn on the fly next year.

 

[SirScarlet]

I'm not quite sure that's what I am driving at as much as a trend standing out. I don't view Kiss as a player capable of getting his own offense. He played that way at Quinnipiac and he had some very good stat lines for Seton Hall and Gonzaga....but extended stretches of not so good shooting.

The question is can he get his own shot on his own, in the B1G or can the staff find a balance to get him shot attempts.

I am not quite sure yet that long term, he is capable of hunting down his own offense. That's where the frosh and Carter factor in. But against a Fordham, it would have been nice to get 13 to 14 points out of Kiss.

Harper and Mathis are the longer term options IMO...we got 70 points which should be enough vs a Fordham....the defense yesterday was more of an issue vs Nick Honor, than isolating Peter Kiss specifically.

I know that you are making a broader point (which I agree with)...I was making a different but related point. I still think we are very much in agreement here.

To be clear I am not saying that we need to isolate parts of our offense for Peter kiss. But at some point you need to look for the ball. And there were a couple of times when we needed a basket and kiss looked to pass up on a relatively open shot to a player who was under more pressure than he was. As a general rule that's not a good thing...and while I would be ok with that against an MSU or Wisky, against Fordham we needed him to find the game...especially when Geo was clearly looking to not be the focal point early.

That said I completely agree with the point that Pike and staff are going to have to figure out how to get some of these younger players into the rotation so that we see development this year (which obviously helps for the future). I have much patience for that because the nice thing about these players is that they are multi-dimensional so finding out where they will succeed and how the team needs to adjust will be a fun process.

Lastly, as I noted in another thread I think that Eugene needs to press a little bit less. He's pushing too hard and I think it's taking us out of our offense at times. But...in fairness to him, guys like Mathis and Harper need to find their way otherwise he doesn't have a whole heck of a lot of options.

 

[RUsojo]

The issue in losses is coaches rotations and more specifically his usage of Doorson. Add in the general lack of open looks in a miserable half court offense. OP is singling out one minor issue and ignoring bigger ones IMO. Kiss can do things better though especially on D.

 

[kcg88]

The most concerning trend to me is that we played our most open, flowing, in-rhythm basketball in the first two games. Since then we've looked more deliberate and stuck-in-the-mud.

 

[RUDead]

The most concerning trend to me is that we played our most open, flowing, in-rhythm basketball in the first two games. Since then we've looked more deliberate and stuck-in-the-mud.

Agree, this seems to be the main problem to me. Add in that Geo and EO are pressing/forcing and it compounds the problem.

They started off the season running and playing fast. Now we are playing a lot of half court offense which we aren't very good at right now. Need to get better there and pick up the tempo again.

 

[higgins3]

The coaching staff needs to put trust in Carter, Mathis, and Harper to make plays. I think they have been a little cautious this far with them but it's obvious that Thiam and Kiss are not generating enough of what the team needs on a consistent basis so we need to shore up other options

Both their numbers do not dictate that they need more looks. Neither does Kiss numbers show that.

I do think that Harper Jr needs to get inside more. Mathis will become more effective when he takes his player off the bounce, and throws a pass instead of taking it all the way.

Like dead said, Rutgers needs to go back to their first couple of games. Get the ball moving, and look for more balance in the offense.