The Illini are 86th in scoring defense, while playing the 48th ranked SoS. They're giving up 30 ppg, but 37 ppg vs. FBS competition.
This is just their second road game this season. Last season they gave up 16.7 at home and 27.0 on the road.
They're also averaging 26.5 ppg to date, though just 20.1 vs. FBS defenses. Still, our defense is missing Jones and Lambert for the year, and may see limited time tomorrow from Hester, Hampton, Nash, Roberts, Morris, Margolis, and Marquez. With Clayton also gone, that's all 6 guys from the season-starting LB two-deep that are either out or limited... and 2 of the 4 guys at the safety two deep.
I don't think 52.5 is unrealistic, and we may just see the over.