Weather for Kansas @ RU: Mild and Dry

[RU848789]

Yeah, who cares, I know, but I still like tailgating with friends and it would be nice to win another game, as I don't think too many more wins are in store for this team. So, does our bad weather luck from the last 2 weeks continue? For both WSU and PSU, we had generally glorious weather for days before the game, followed by great tailgating weather, but then followed by horribly timed showers - very late in the game for WSU and for much of the late 2Q onward for PSU.

The weather for KU is looking pretty good, so far, with the official NWS forecast showing warm and dry conditions for next Saturday, with highs in the mid-70s (74/51F is the normal high/low for 9/26), after a seasonably cool start with early morning temps in the low-50s. However, after what looks to be another great week of late summer weather, there is a small chance that a low pressure system spinning off the SE coast all week moves closer and brings a few showers this weekend, with the timing being uncertain. The showers are a low enough probability event to not be in the official forecast, but we were in a similar boat 3-6 days out for the last two games. Here's the discussion from the Mt. Holly office.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IN THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT NEARBY ALL WEEK WILL LINGER OFF
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WOULD LEAVE US MAINLY DRY
WITH A REFRESHING COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN. THE GFS AND GEFS AND
CMC 12Z RUNS INSTEAD RETROGRADE THE LOW FURTHER NORTHWEST TOWARD
OUR COASTLINE. THIS WOULD BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS. RIGHT
NOW THE WETTER SOLUTION LOOKS LESS LIKELY WITH THE ECMWF AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN MORE AGGRESSIVE BUILDING THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
FURTHER SOUTH BUT THAT STILL CHANGE GIVEN WE ARE STILL 5 PLUS DAYS
AWAY. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HERE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES A TOUCH
HIGHER SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

[Scarlet dollar]

With the way our luck is this year, a hurricane will form off the coast of New Jersey Friday night, and pull away about 4pm Saturday.

 

[RU848789]

Models are trending in our favor, as it looks like that low off the SE coast will only provide some clouds to our area Friday night, as high pressure is being modeled to suppress the system to our south (any rain should be confined to the DelMarVa and maybe far SE NJ, with the worst case being some light rain from maybe Wilmington to Toms River). This would result in warm/dry conditions for tailgates and the game, with temps starting out in the low 50s and hitting the low 70s during the game. It's still 5 days out, so things could still change, but it's almost a lock for great weather on Saturday. Could be a bit breezy, though, which may affect our vaunted passing attack.

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER JAMES BAY IS FORECAST TO BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE
SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING HIGH MAY REACH US SATURDAY AND
BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DRIER
AIR TO EVENTUALLY WIN OUT. THEREFORE, ANY PRECIP FROM THE LOW TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD RETREAT WELL TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. IT IS
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THE
PAPAL VISIT FESTIVITIES IN PHILADELPHIA THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT, IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

 

[bac2therac]

Saturday might see our coolest high temp of the season...fall like especially in the morning

 

[bac2therac]

really have to watch out because the models are trending northward with the coastal system and less suppression. Very very uncertain and timing plays a huge role although the storm if it does come this far north might be more likely to hit Sunday rather than Saturday. Stay tuned

 

[vascosg]

That has to be one of the most bizarre gifs I've ever seen. Quite disturbing actually. Lol

 

[knightfan7]

Come on Bac. We've been very busy at work so this'll be my first game of the season. Only happy news please!:smiley:

 

[rube1859]

I'm pretty sure the morning tailgate possibly may be the highlight the way the last three weeks have gone.

 

[RUhasarrived]

My program from Saturday night is still drying.Some of the pages will be stuck together forever,as are the pages in the program from the game at the Orange Bowl in 1995.We wasted all that good Saturday weather all summer.As Hoover said:"I knew it.I knew it.I knew it.I knew it."

 

[InGregITrust]

How windy will it be on saturday for the tailgate?

 

[bac2therac]

Good news models were south again so trending back in our favor... for a dry day

 

[RU848789]

Models are trending in our favor, as it looks like that low off the SE coast will only provide some clouds to our area Friday night, as high pressure is being modeled to suppress the system to our south (any rain should be confined to the DelMarVa and maybe far SE NJ, with the worst case being some light rain from maybe Wilmington to Toms River). This would result in warm/dry conditions for tailgates and the game, with temps starting out in the low 50s and hitting the low 70s during the game. It's still 5 days out, so things could still change, but it's almost a lock for great weather on Saturday. Could be a bit breezy, though, which may affect our vaunted passing attack.

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER JAMES BAY IS FORECAST TO BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE
SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING HIGH MAY REACH US SATURDAY AND
BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DRIER
AIR TO EVENTUALLY WIN OUT. THEREFORE, ANY PRECIP FROM THE LOW TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD RETREAT WELL TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. IT IS
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THE
PAPAL VISIT FESTIVITIES IN PHILADELPHIA THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT, IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

Still looking good, but 4 days out and not quite ready to lock it up for being dry yet, but looking very very good, as any chances of the low approaching (or some part of it) look to be more on Sunday into Monday and not Saturday. However, 4 days out, things can change enough to move something 12-18 hours earlier or a few hundred miles in any direction. Great disco by Walt Drag the legendary (in met circles) forecaster at the NWS in Philly, below. Official forecast is for warm and dry conditions with temps starting out in the 50s and reaching the low 70s during the game with partly cloudy conditions; could also be breezy.

THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY...INVERTED TROUGH MAY YET YIELD A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NWD ALONG IT IN RESPONSE TO A PART OF
THE SE USA TROUGH SPLITTING NEWD. MAX AXIS ENSEMBLED ESE 850
INFLOW IS SOUTH OF OUR MOUNT HOLLY AREA BUT OVERALL SFC ISOBARIC
PATTERN AND 500 PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST WE NEED TO THINK ABOUT BRISK
WIND DRIVEN RAIN S NJ SWD. HOWEVER, MULTIPLE MODELS HAVE REVERSED
COURSE TODAY AND WPC CONTINUES ITS DRY OUTLOOK WITH 12Z/22
OPERATIONAL EC MISSING US TO OUR SE. IN THE FACE OF MULTIPLE
12Z/22 OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE...HAVE NOT
FORECAST MUCH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION, THOUGH IF IT WERE TO
RAINY AND BREEZY, THEN I THINK IT WOULD HAVE TO BE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. ALL I MODIFIED WAS A SMALL INCREASE IN POPS FOR THE SRN
HALF OF OUR CWA TO ENSURE MENTION OF A SHOWER RISK BUT ITS A LOW
CHANCE AS OF THIS TUESDAY`S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

THIS IS ALSO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DESPITE MODEL QPF
CONSENSUS.

AM JUST UNCOMFORTABLE FCSTG NO RAIN WITH A SEEMINGLY INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST, BROAD AND PERSISTENT ELY INFLOW
AT THE LOW LVLS FOR DAYS THAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY INCREASE PWAT OFF
THE WARMER THAN NORMAL SST. THATS ONE THING I NOTICED IN THE
12Z/22 GEFS GUIDANCE...PWAT WAS NORMAL FOR SUN/MON, JUST SEEMED
TOO LOW.

SO I WONT SPEND ANY MORE TIME ON DETAILS EXCEPT TO SUGGEST THAT
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30
MPH BUT RIGHT NOW, THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE PART OF THE FCST IS FOR
THE WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY PHL SOUTHWARD.

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGES
AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

[RU848789]

Still looking good for Saturday. Should be cool to start (lows in the low/mid-50s) and maybe a little breezy, but with some sunshine, it should feel ok and temps will be rising into the low 70s by gametime, although clouds will be on the increase throughout the day. Rain chances look to be confined to the DelMarVa and far SE NJ (south of AC). So, just about a lock for dry weather - if the forecast persists like this into tomorrow, I'd say we're locked up for a very nice Homecoming.

 

[knightfan7]

#s this may not be your thing but does this also mean the coastal flooding probability is reduced or maybe not be as significant as some speculated a couple days ago?

 

[bac2therac]

yeah it would take a pretty big model reversal to ruin homecoming this year. Even if the storm moves further north as some models took it today it would be overnight into Sunday and not Saturday

so at least this beats last years dreadful mess vs Wisky. Maybe not as warm as the first two games but probably more comfortable

 

[RU848789]

#s this may not be your thing but does this also mean the coastal flooding probability is reduced or maybe not be as significant as some speculated a couple days ago?

While no flood watches have been posted, there's still a chance of some flooding this weekend, with heavy seas, gale force winds, etc., but I don't think it's a serious threat, at least north of AC. If you're interested in that, the discussions I often link always contain a marine forecast (and you can click on the NWS map over the ocean to get the marine forecast for a specific location). Here's the one from this afternoon.

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS
AFTERNOON AS GUSTS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. HOWEVER, SEAS
ON THE OCEAN ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 5 AND 6 FEET. THEY MAY DECREASE
SOME TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS BELOW FIVE FEET, SO THE
SCA WILL EXPIRE AT 00Z FOR ANZ 450. SEAS WILL THEN BUILD BACK UP
AGAIN TO BETWEEN FIVE AND SIX FEET IN THE NORTHERN WATERS WHILE
STAYING STEADY ELSEWHERE ON THURSDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS INCLUDES THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY BY THURSDAY EVENING AND A NEW
SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED WHICH EXTENDS INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A GENERAL NORTHEAST WIND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN TURN NORTHERLY MONDAY.

SCA HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE ATLC WATERS PROBABLE THROUGH NEXT MONDAY
FROM VCNTY BUOY 44091 SOUTHWARD.

MARGINAL SCA GUSTS THURSDAY NIGHT BECOME WIDESPREAD 25 KT OR HIGHER
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH TRIES TO PUSH NORTHWARD AND THE HIGH
PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEK, WE WILL SEE A
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE
35-40KT GUSTS. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST PERIOD OF WIND
GUSTS IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST
WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

WAVES MAY BUILD TO BETWEEN 12 AND 15 FEET IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
EAST OF CAPE MAY TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS IDENTIFIED THROUGH BUOY 44009 AND 44091. THIS IS
MENTIONED IN THE AFTERNOON MWW.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

[knightfan7]

Thanks sir.

 

[e5fdny]

Waves were huge today.

Not really rideable but big enough.

 

[RU848789]

Thanks sir.

you're quite welcome - have you been in Manasquan long? Lived through the '91 Halloween nor'easter, the December '92 one, and Sandy, presumably? We have friends in Manasquan who've had to rebuild/repair a few times...

 

[Knight Shift]

you're quite welcome - have you been in Manasquan long? Lived through the '91 Halloween nor'easter, the December '92 one, and Sandy, presumably? We have friends in Manasquan who've had to rebuild/repair a few times...

I have a lot of ties to Manasquan too, although not too recent. Spent most of my teen years riding my bike to the beach during the day and night, and working at the Corner Store on the corner of Ocean and First Ave. This was in the late 1970's through mid 1980's. Great town, and still know some people there.

 

[RU848789]

Lock it up for a gorgeous Homecoming, as the chances of rain are confined to scattered light showers south of AC, with no significant rain until one gets to the DelMarVa and we essentially have model consensus on that now (models diverge for Sunday, but who cares, lol). Day will start out in the upper 50s early on and then climb through the 60s during the tailgates, reaching the low 70s during the game, with partly sunny skies throughout. As has been advertised, it is looking to be a little breezy during the late morning and afternoon with 10-15 mph winds and gusts to 20 mph - shouldn't be canopy-destroying winds, but it could have a minor effect on the game. Enjoy.