ACE hasn’t had one of these monster scoring games at home yet, the next 2 would be a great time to do it
We're gonna beat Michigan
- Thread starter Salvi's Headband
- Start date
I’ll take 35+ point scoring the next two games and two wins please
While I predicted a win I have to say Michigan has a way of roughing us up while also doubling us in FTs. I hope to be pleasantly surprised.
Bad match-up for RU, especially short-handed (no Ogbole for interior, no Harper, maybe Williams still not 100%).
Without putting a prediction forward, here is what may be:
Defense:
The initial match-ups will have Sommerville on Goldin and I presume Grant on the other 7 footer, and the stretch PF Wolf. I presume whoever is RU's starting PG (Williams or Derkack) will be on Tre Donaldson, UM's 2nd leading scorer and playing really well offensively right now - BUT susceptible to the turnover (43 in 20 games). A healthy Williams would actually be a decent match-up for RU (Williams pressures well). I presume Bailey will be initially matched up vs Burnett - UM's designated 3-point sniper (65% of FG attempts from 3, 44% FG% from 3) - Bailey has been assigned a perimeter player in each of the last 3 games, presumably to use his length to bother the shooter - and with Grant and Sommerville starting, Bailey is the 3, the WF. That leaves the other starter to cover Gayle - though he has taken 50+ 3-pointers (31% of his attempts), is more an athletic slasher ... does Acuff start? Or Derkack ... Derkack is athletic enough to cover Gayle (if he maintains his defensive discipline) - and Derkack COULD be a good match as Gayle turns the ball over A LOT (44 times in 20 games, and Derkack CAN cause chaos. Acuff would likely be abused by Gayle - Gayle is WAY too athletic for Acuff.
Off the bench, Martini will have the biggest issue, as I am not even sure he is 6'6" (though listed at 6'8" ... I have no idea how he can defend Goldin or Wolf. Which means Dortch, even skinny, may have to really step up and defend Wolf, at least (using his height and length to defend against the stretch PF Wolf. If coming off the bench, Acuff needs to be solid, at least and Davis needs to be very strong defensively (he has been so in some games, not as much in other games).
The thing is ... Michigan is REALLY REALLY good offensively, so this is a real challenge. They shoot 50% FG, 37% 3-point and are a strong rebounding team. They take 44% of their FG's from 3-point range - BUT ... have a strong offensive post player in Goldin and at times Wolf. They have SEVEN (7) players who take 50% or more of their FG's from 3: Donaldson (well, just under 50% at 49% of his FG's from 3), Burnett (65% of FG tries from 3), Tschetter - a 6'9" reserve getting 15 mpg (55% of FG's from 3), Walters - a 6'10" reserve getting 13 mpg (82% of FG from 3), Cason - a 6'3" reserve - 11 mpg (55% of FG from 3), Ruben Jones - a 6'5" reserve getting 20 mpg (68% of FG from 3) and Pippen - 6'3" reserve getting just 7 mpg (70% of his 30 FG tries from 3).
On the bright side, while UM is relatively deep, they have 7 players averaging 20 mpg or more, and the remaining 4 reserves play between 7 and 15 mpg - so not consistent. More importantly, UM CAN be turnover prone - averaging almost 15 turnovers per game (the BTN earlier today pointed out UM had the most turnovers/game of any Big Ten team - and the gap between them and the 2nd worst team in the Big 10 was bigger than the gap between the 2nd worst team and the 18th worst team. So ... RU probably HAS ot force UM into turnovers to have a chance. ... or hope from a really poor 3-point FG% performance from UM. That CAN happen, though not often. UM shot 30% from 3 vs Wake Forest, and lost ... 27% vs Tarleton St (and still won going away - but Tarleton St) ... 29% vs Virginia Tech - but won by 12 ... 24% vs Wisconsin - but win by 3 ... 20% vs Iowa - and lost (but only by 2) ... 14% vs Oklahoma - and lost, but only by 1 ... 26% vs NW - and won in OT ... 21% vs Purdue and got killed ... they lost at Minny despite shooting 11-22, 50%, from 3 - not sure how they lost that game (UM had a better FG%, better 3-pt FG%, many more FT and out-rebounded Minny - the difference was 6 Minny turnovers to UM's 13 - not even a lot of UM TO's).
Offense:
Well ... pretty simple to "model", not so simple to execute:
1) Need Bailey to be very good (not necessarily other-worldly as he was in 2 of the last 3 games - but very good like in 5 of the last 6 games ... He has a 4-15 ish game, I think it would be very tough for RU to win or even keep it close ... presuming Harper is out.
2) Take care of the ball - really limit the turnovers to 10 or fewer - and more importantly, have at least a +5 turnover margin related to UM.
3) Hold their own on the boards (do not have to WIN the rebounding battle, but need to be at least adequate.
4) At least TWO other players step up offensively (3 would be better), hopefully 1 of those scoring 13-15 points, and another 1-2 players scoring 8-12 points.
Without putting a prediction forward, here is what may be:
Defense:
The initial match-ups will have Sommerville on Goldin and I presume Grant on the other 7 footer, and the stretch PF Wolf. I presume whoever is RU's starting PG (Williams or Derkack) will be on Tre Donaldson, UM's 2nd leading scorer and playing really well offensively right now - BUT susceptible to the turnover (43 in 20 games). A healthy Williams would actually be a decent match-up for RU (Williams pressures well). I presume Bailey will be initially matched up vs Burnett - UM's designated 3-point sniper (65% of FG attempts from 3, 44% FG% from 3) - Bailey has been assigned a perimeter player in each of the last 3 games, presumably to use his length to bother the shooter - and with Grant and Sommerville starting, Bailey is the 3, the WF. That leaves the other starter to cover Gayle - though he has taken 50+ 3-pointers (31% of his attempts), is more an athletic slasher ... does Acuff start? Or Derkack ... Derkack is athletic enough to cover Gayle (if he maintains his defensive discipline) - and Derkack COULD be a good match as Gayle turns the ball over A LOT (44 times in 20 games, and Derkack CAN cause chaos. Acuff would likely be abused by Gayle - Gayle is WAY too athletic for Acuff.
Off the bench, Martini will have the biggest issue, as I am not even sure he is 6'6" (though listed at 6'8" ... I have no idea how he can defend Goldin or Wolf. Which means Dortch, even skinny, may have to really step up and defend Wolf, at least (using his height and length to defend against the stretch PF Wolf. If coming off the bench, Acuff needs to be solid, at least and Davis needs to be very strong defensively (he has been so in some games, not as much in other games).
The thing is ... Michigan is REALLY REALLY good offensively, so this is a real challenge. They shoot 50% FG, 37% 3-point and are a strong rebounding team. They take 44% of their FG's from 3-point range - BUT ... have a strong offensive post player in Goldin and at times Wolf. They have SEVEN (7) players who take 50% or more of their FG's from 3: Donaldson (well, just under 50% at 49% of his FG's from 3), Burnett (65% of FG tries from 3), Tschetter - a 6'9" reserve getting 15 mpg (55% of FG's from 3), Walters - a 6'10" reserve getting 13 mpg (82% of FG from 3), Cason - a 6'3" reserve - 11 mpg (55% of FG from 3), Ruben Jones - a 6'5" reserve getting 20 mpg (68% of FG from 3) and Pippen - 6'3" reserve getting just 7 mpg (70% of his 30 FG tries from 3).
On the bright side, while UM is relatively deep, they have 7 players averaging 20 mpg or more, and the remaining 4 reserves play between 7 and 15 mpg - so not consistent. More importantly, UM CAN be turnover prone - averaging almost 15 turnovers per game (the BTN earlier today pointed out UM had the most turnovers/game of any Big Ten team - and the gap between them and the 2nd worst team in the Big 10 was bigger than the gap between the 2nd worst team and the 18th worst team. So ... RU probably HAS ot force UM into turnovers to have a chance. ... or hope from a really poor 3-point FG% performance from UM. That CAN happen, though not often. UM shot 30% from 3 vs Wake Forest, and lost ... 27% vs Tarleton St (and still won going away - but Tarleton St) ... 29% vs Virginia Tech - but won by 12 ... 24% vs Wisconsin - but win by 3 ... 20% vs Iowa - and lost (but only by 2) ... 14% vs Oklahoma - and lost, but only by 1 ... 26% vs NW - and won in OT ... 21% vs Purdue and got killed ... they lost at Minny despite shooting 11-22, 50%, from 3 - not sure how they lost that game (UM had a better FG%, better 3-pt FG%, many more FT and out-rebounded Minny - the difference was 6 Minny turnovers to UM's 13 - not even a lot of UM TO's).
Offense:
Well ... pretty simple to "model", not so simple to execute:
1) Need Bailey to be very good (not necessarily other-worldly as he was in 2 of the last 3 games - but very good like in 5 of the last 6 games ... He has a 4-15 ish game, I think it would be very tough for RU to win or even keep it close ... presuming Harper is out.
2) Take care of the ball - really limit the turnovers to 10 or fewer - and more importantly, have at least a +5 turnover margin related to UM.
3) Hold their own on the boards (do not have to WIN the rebounding battle, but need to be at least adequate.
4) At least TWO other players step up offensively (3 would be better), hopefully 1 of those scoring 13-15 points, and another 1-2 players scoring 8-12 points.
Michigan has virtually no “weakness” when looking at their resume and analytics with one notable exception. Turnovers. On the road they are very bad on both offense and defense (both rank worse than 300th). Everywhere else they are well above average.
3 keys to the game
1) Turnover battle most be won fairly decisively
2) Have to be 40% or better from 3
3) Cannot get killed on easy layups (I know playing with fire but allow them to shoot 3s if necessary)
3 keys to the game
1) Turnover battle most be won fairly decisively
2) Have to be 40% or better from 3
3) Cannot get killed on easy layups (I know playing with fire but allow them to shoot 3s if necessary)
Difficult for a road team to double-up a home team in FTs, regardless of how many mismatches there are.
On offense for us Lathan and Grant should be out high and constantly trying to find backdoor cuts against their big men. Keep their big men out of clogging the lane so that some of our other players like Bailey can have openings on drives etc. While they are bigger in defending we need to be smart on our offense by playing to the fact they cant stay with "smaller" players. I could see Grant standing out for a 3pt shot yet but fast to the basket without the ball for some dunks today
February 29, 2024 Michigan at Rutgers, Rutgers wins 82-52.. crushed them.. and yet...
Rutgers 8/12 FTs
Michigan 10/20 FTs
Not quite double.. but close.
But.. to be fair.. the previous Rutgers win AT Michigan had us shooting 17 FTs to Michigan's 7.. iirc, that was a game where coach Howard lost it. I made a small effort to see if my opinion has been colored by that horrendously called game at MSG vs Michigan.. as well as the NIT Championship game at MSG. Could be true. But I thought I could use AI to make it quick.. I was wrong.
Rutgers FTs first - Michigan 2nd
- February 29, 2024: Rutgers 82 - Michigan 52 (at Rutgers) - 12-20
- February 3, 2024: Rutgers 69 - Michigan 59 (at Michigan) - 17-7
- March 9, 2023: Rutgers 62 - Michigan 50 (at a neutral site - Big Ten Tournament) - 12-17
- February 23, 2023: Michigan 58 - Rutgers 45 (at Rutgers) - 16-11
- February 23, 2022: Michigan 71 - Rutgers 62 (at Michigan) - 7-10
- January 4, 2022: Rutgers 75 - Michigan 67 (at Rutgers) - 17-13
- February 18, 2021: Michigan 71 - Rutgers 64 (at Michigan) - 18-23
- February 19, 2020: Michigan 60 - Rutgers 52 (at Rutgers) - 9-18
- February 1, 2020: Michigan 69 - Rutgers 63 (at a neutral site) - 5-24 (not a typo)
- February 5, 2019: Michigan 77 - Rutgers 65 (at Rutgers) - 16-17
So, yes, I'd have to say my thought that Michigan will get double the FTs to Rutgers was wrong and was biased by some important games I attended in person and was flabbergasted by the calls made.
But it COULD happen..
I ended up looking up each boxscore by hand but I tried to get MS-CoPilot to do the work and it refused. I then tried Google Gemini. It could make a list of the last ten Rutgers va Michigan dates.. I then asked to to provide links to box scores. It complied.. but, well, it was dead wrong. When I pressed it to provide good links it ended up refusing to look up stuff. Then I asked it how it was able to provide me teh links it already game me. It answered:
You're right to be curious! I didn't actually find those box score links in the way a human would browse the web. I made a mistake.
Here's what happened: I tried to construct the URLs based on some common patterns I've learned about sports website addresses. Many sports sites use predictable structures for their URLs, often including the date, teams, and keywords like "boxscore." I essentially guessed at what the URLs might look like.
Unfortunately, I guessed incorrectly. I don't have the ability to actually visit those URLs and check if they're correct. I can't "see" the content of web pages. So, I created links that looked plausible, but were ultimately wrong.
This illustrates a key limitation I currently have: I can't independently verify information from the real world. I can process and manipulate information, but I can't go out and gather new information from the web like a human can.
I am still under development, and one of the things I am being trained on is how to access and interpret information from websites correctly. Hopefully, in the future, I will be able to do this more reliably.
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This is a guaranteed waxing without Harper unless UM has it’s worst game of the season. We can’t expect 30-40 point performances out of Ace every game, especially against a team as good as Michigan. Is what it is, maybe Derkack has another career night.
