I do not follow basketball nearly as closely as football, but really getting into this team. For us to make the NIT, which I understand is a stretch, what would we likely need to do in the BIG10 schedule? Assuming we go 2-1 in the next 3 (entering BIG10 play at 11-2), would a 6-12 mark do it?. 17-14 record. Thanks for any insight.
What is needed for NIT?
- Thread starter Miggins
- Start date
The NCAA creates the NIT bracket, so the criteria will be similar (SOS, top 50 wins, etc.). Our resume will dictate that 18 wins puts us on the bubble and 19 probably puts us in a solid position.
Winning at SHU goes a long way to getting in. A top 50 win on the road is big.
Northwestern was 20-12 and 8-10 in conference play and DID NOT make the NIT
RU will need to go 11-2 OOC and then 18-13/7-11 and win one B10 tourney game to get to 19-14 to have any shot of making it
RU's OOC SOS is dreadful, worse than even Northwestern's was
RU will need to go 11-2 OOC and then 18-13/7-11 and win one B10 tourney game to get to 19-14 to have any shot of making it
RU's OOC SOS is dreadful, worse than even Northwestern's was
Had no idea that they didn't even make the NIT. The bottom line is if we are thinking about the NIT it is in the same conversation as the NCAAs.
not so fast...with RU's poor SOS they would have to finish 22-9/11-7 regular season to be right on the bubble for the NCAA....Ohio State was 20-13/11-7 and did not make the NCAA, settling for a NIT bid....SOS dogged them despite 11 league wins.
My point was there is a razor thin difference between NIT and NCAA teams. As you say.... 23-10/12-8 is probably the number needed.
OK STOP with the NIT. Not because I think you are going to jinx us, but if we are eligible to get to the NIT then it means we will have been considered for the NCAAs. If we're good enough for the NIT then we should be thinking about making the NCAAs. Most every team that makes the NIT was a team that was on the bubble at some point.
The days of the 15-14 RU making the NIT are over.
The days of the 15-14 RU making the NIT are over.
My buddy on this board (hint he's from Piscataway) has long cherished this intermediate goal. Knows his stuff. Says:
1) Min of 17-18 wins
2) .500 in Conference play.
Sounds about Right to me...
1) Min of 17-18 wins
2) .500 in Conference play.
Sounds about Right to me...
Any extra exposure or practice probably helps. Remember it was thought a big mistake retroactively that the 1976 undefeated team declined an invite to the Independence Bowl
(supposedly to focus on exams).
I think it's wrong to focus on the post-season, including the NIT. Success this year should be deemed if we win at least 15 games and be competitive in all Big Ten games --no more 30-40 point losses. Discussion of post-season opportunities should be left for next season. If we can win 15 games and get some big time recruits to select Rutgers, this year's team should be considered a resounding success..
It's all a toss up and probably loaded towards mid-majors, but last year Princeton gets in with only one top 50 win, at home against Yale who wasn't the 46th best team in the nation regardless of what KenPom has to say.
IMO 6 conference wins is the magic number for a shot at the NIT this season. Lose to FDU and/or Fordham and there's that much more work to do.
While we don't have a great win yet, we don't have a bad loss which goes a long way. Bad losses generally cancel out the good wins (see Monmouth last year for getting into NCAA).
B1G play is going to be crazy, we have only 6 conference games not labeled as an A by KenPom.
5 and we're on the bubble, 6 and we are in. Forget all of this if we lose either of these next two.
.500 in conference puts you at 20-11 heading into the B1G tourney (if we win these next two then lose to Seton Hall). That puts you firmly in the NCAA tourney discussion as long as the B1G doesn't completely implode during conference play this season.
no it doesnt not with a real bad SOS...schools do not get in if they have no OOC win to point to, pointing to De Paul as our best win will not cut it. Ohio State was 11-7 in league play and basically it was known they werent getting into the NCAA tourney on selection sunday,. I will not even get into the idea of this team being 500.
5 conference wins does not put us anywhere near the NIT bubble
as Jon S said in his post lets just focus on improving and getting better and leave post season expectations until next season
Walk before you run is my counsel. The weak OOC has been a Godsend for the program, but it's probably going to keep the team out of post-season play. The fact that you're even having this thread speaks volumes about where the program might be headed -- but the ETA is not going to be this season, most likely...
I never said they should be .500 I said a .500 conference record would get them in the discussion
Last year Ohio St had a Kentucky win negated by home losses to UT Arlington and Louisiana Tech.
They played 3 A and 1 B KenPom game in OOC, only win out of those was Kentucky.
They won 3 A games in conference, (Northwestern road and Nebraska road were suspect A game's) and 2 B games.
Right now Rutgers has 10 A games and 4 B games and 5 of neither in conference.
Ohio State from last year has nothing to do with this year.
I'm not saying Rutgers will go .500 in conference, I am saying if they do they're in discussion for a NCAA bid.
Northwestern from last year is the comp, they go 9-9 in conference instead of 8-10 or win the OT Michigan game in the conference tournament than they are most likely in. Virginia Tech OOC win was good, not great. Didn't have any bad losses against a soft schedule.
To add to the NIT discussion, Penn State had bad OOC losses to Duquesne and Radford last year, Nebraska to Samford, Illinois to North Florida. Those are the teams that were in the 5-7 conference win range. Out of that group Penn State was the only one with a top 7 conference SOS (2). Northwestern finished 12th in conference SOS.
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BAC has this nailed well (as usual)
17-14 with one B!G win ain't getting us NIT...at 18-15
18-13 with one B!G toueney win at 19-14...is an OUTSIDE SHOT
19-12 then either 19-13 or 20-12 is decent shot
Of course...if you get to 19-12...19-12....you are thinking three BIG tourney wins and a NCAA spor at 22-13...and that is still very bubblish
First goal is 19-12 and then get greedy....
And...honeslty...think 19-12 means we need to beat the Hall and finish 12-1 in OOC play
17-14 with one B!G win ain't getting us NIT...at 18-15
18-13 with one B!G toueney win at 19-14...is an OUTSIDE SHOT
19-12 then either 19-13 or 20-12 is decent shot
Of course...if you get to 19-12...19-12....you are thinking three BIG tourney wins and a NCAA spor at 22-13...and that is still very bubblish
First goal is 19-12 and then get greedy....
And...honeslty...think 19-12 means we need to beat the Hall and finish 12-1 in OOC play
sorry 9-9 with no out conference wins in league will not get them in...say the conference wins are Penn State 2x, Illinois, Iowa 2x, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio State, Northwestern...that will not get them in...first of all its not going to happen anyhow, it would require RU winning EVERY SINGLE swing game basically but those are not going to be top 50 wins, let alone top 25 rpi wins. I dont even know what you are talking about with A and B games because the NCAA uses rpi stats not kenpom and they value top 25 and top 50 wins...where will RUs top 25 wins come from, teams with 0 or 1 top 50 win do not make the NCAA tourney, in my years of going through this at minimum you need THREE top 50 wins from a major school and only if you also have at least 8 top 100 wins
Northwestern in the NCAA last year with one win? Huh? they didnt even make the NIT at 20-12/8-10. I am pointing out to you how hard it is to make the NCAA even from this league. A 500 record in this league simply isnt enough and its also hard to make the NIT as well with Northwestern the perfect example
agreed IF Rutgers was to beat Seton Hall and finish 12-1 headed into Big 10 play then yes they have one quality win up on that board that will help them but without that win it really kills them. The committee always looks at non conference schedule and RU is like 351 or so as of last week, thats not going to cut it. We saw SMU snubbed a few years back and did they have 23/24 wins and were actually ranked.
The moral of the story is there's no cheating our way into the tournament. If this team gets a postseason berth, it will be because they earned it. It's not like FB where 80 of 120 teams play in the postseason. It's the top 80 or so out of 350 plus those that can win their conference. For the NCAAs, there's ESPECIALLY no easy way in - we would have to EARN the right to get to be 6 games away from a national championship.
Right now Iowa is the only B1G team not in top 100 on ESPN's daily RPI.
Penn State 104, Iowa 185 on NCAA's RPI site.
Am I saying it's easy or that they're definitely in? I'm saying they're in the discussion if that happens.
I count 4 top 100 RPI wins for Michigan last season. Texas, Maryland, Purdue and Indiana twice. That also gives them 4 top 50 wins and 3 top 25.
The flip side is they didn't have a loss outside of the top 100. Who you lose to is just as important is who you beat. Bad loss negates a good win every time.
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I doubt Rutgers can beat SHU, especially with it being an away game. I saw them beat a very good Cal team and several players , Delgado and Rodriguez , really impressed me. They are a very good solid team and well coached.
I think 18 will put us there if we get more than one HUGE upset. So that we have say a 2-3 record vs top 25 opponents which would be unmatched by any other team on the NIT bubble.
ESPN has nothing to do with this, the NCAA selects schools, it is now based on criteria, RU is going to have to have a good number of top 100 wins to get in given the abominable SOS
FROM A POST SEASON STANDPOINT....
Rutgers has 0 wins vs. top 100 teams. Any postseason discussion is laughable. You can take our 9 victories so far and throw them out the window. Our season hasn't even started yet, except for the Miami game.
The discussion we could be having is what does out 2017 OOC schedule look like? It is very possible we could take a step back next year from a record standpoint if we play a schedule that gives us a chance of making a post season tournament.
Rutgers has 0 wins vs. top 100 teams. Any postseason discussion is laughable. You can take our 9 victories so far and throw them out the window. Our season hasn't even started yet, except for the Miami game.
The discussion we could be having is what does out 2017 OOC schedule look like? It is very possible we could take a step back next year from a record standpoint if we play a schedule that gives us a chance of making a post season tournament.
I agree with this but I need to see who we land with that last scholarship. I really believe we are one stud scorer away from the Ncaas next year with just about everyone back. Now getting that stud scorer isn't easy but it is being said we are in on one.
I go back to the fact that we are 0-1 vs. top 100. I know we are so much better, but I want to see how we stack up vs. real teams. My gut tells me we still have a way to go before we are a Top 60 school. Still have to view this thing as a 14 rung ladder. Are we going to get good enough to start passing teams. To get to post season we need to be better than bare minimum 5 or 6 B1G schools.
That's makes sense. Also, even if you have an "NCAA" team you still need to catch breaks to make it. Stay healthy. Couple balls bounce your way etc.
Right now the 2 schools we are close to right now are Iowa and Penn State. Penn State is playing with mostly freshman and a junior. Iowa is off to a rocky start, but recently beat Iowa State. Nebraska is only 5-5, but their 5 losses are all against top 40 kenpom teams. They also beat dayton.
Interesting stat from kenpom....we are a pretty young team. We are 266 out of 351. our experience is 1.45. they take minutes *0,1,2 or 3 (fr,so,jr,sr). You'd think that would bode well for improvement, but......
7 of the other 13 B1G teams are YOUNGER than us.
Iowa .97 340th
PSU 1.03 333rd
MD 1.16 321st
MSU 1.20 318th
Ind 1.23 312th
Min 1.24 310th
Neb 1.37 287th
7 of the other 13 B1G teams are YOUNGER than us.
Iowa .97 340th
PSU 1.03 333rd
MD 1.16 321st
MSU 1.20 318th
Ind 1.23 312th
Min 1.24 310th
Neb 1.37 287th
That's until we start BIG play. It will go down dramatically. The SOS nothing they can do about the OOC
If we beat SHU, we have to go .500 in conference play to maybe make the NIT. Like other posters have mentioned, just go look at the teams that made it last year and tell me if you think that we can match the quality of the season that they had
dream if you wish but this will be a "tremendous" year if we get to the nit--and that's unlikely
