What is needed for NIT?

[playorbplayd]

Everyone realistically knew this was a 3-5 year rebuild coming in for the new coaching staff. There's no discussion when it comes to tournament expectations for this year. I was just giving my two cents on what I thought it would take to be in consideration for either the NIT or NCAA's.

The team has surprised to this point regardless of the schedule. We all knew the OOC schedule coming in, go back and read your predictions as to how many games you thought they were going to win during it. For most, they've already surpassed expectations.

Halfway through the conference slate this is worth checking back in on, regardless of what the record is I'm sure we'll be happy with the quality of play compared to past seasons.

The season has been fun so far, imagine that...it's been fun following Rutgers basketball...try and enjoy it while it's happening.

 

[RUaMoose]

Northwestern was 20-12 and 8-10 in conference play and DID NOT make the NIT

RU will need to go 11-2 OOC and then 18-13/7-11 and win one B10 tourney game to get to 19-14 to have any shot of making it

RU's OOC SOS is dreadful, worse than even Northwestern's was

How times have changed. Used to be you could sleep walk to a 0.500 record and get an NIT bid.

 

[srru86]

I think any post season discussion is very much getting ahead of ourselves, but...
Fanrag
Surprising Rutgers can deepen Big Ten come Selection Sunday

 

[Scarlet Shack]

Maybe I'm wrong...but I think we have more talent than everyone else has

Beat Forrdam...11-1

Then 5 of the next 12....which really means taking 5 of these 7 games....and writing off losses at Wisky, Wisky (MSG), at Indiana, at Maryland, and at Mich state

at SHU
Penn State
at Iowa
Northwestern
Nebraska
Iowa
at Penn State

I really think we will be 16-8 heading into the final seven games of the year...

 

[soundcrib]

Everyone realistically knew this was a 3-5 year rebuild coming in for the new coaching staff. There's no discussion when it comes to tournament expectations for this year. I was just giving my two cents on what I thought it would take to be in consideration for either the NIT or NCAA's.

The team has surprised to this point regardless of the schedule. We all knew the OOC schedule coming in, go back and read your predictions as to how many games you thought they were going to win during it. For most, they've already surpassed expectations.

Halfway through the conference slate this is worth checking back in on, regardless of what the record is I'm sure we'll be happy with the quality of play compared to past seasons.

The season has been fun so far, imagine that...it's been fun following Rutgers basketball...try and enjoy it while it's happening.

Yet the rally cry when they break the huddle with everyone's hands in is "DANCE!"

 

[playorbplayd]

Yet the rally cry when they break the huddle with everyone's hands in is "DANCE!"

players should always expect to win, I'd be more than happy if when they're done giving the media the finger with this OOC play if they do the same to me and everyone else with different expectations by handling their business in B1G play.

 

[bac2therac]

Shack thats alot to ask...SHU is a likely loss so in that grouping RU would have to win 5 of 6 of them...two are on the road. Certainly all are winnable but not sure this team is good enough to win almost every swing game. I am thinking more of the lines of 3-3 to shoot for in those game..maybe steal won on the road and go 4-2....the last part of the schedule is pretty tough especially at home

I just saw some things last night that give me pause on the ability to gain leads and close out leads on quality teams. RU is doing it against poor competition in the end and thats great but FDU isnt good and RU really had trouble lowering the hammer, all these Big 10 teams are several notches up from FDU so until I see RU actually play better competition I have a hard time giving them the majority of the swing games.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Maybe I'm wrong...but I think we have more talent than everyone else has

Beat Forrdam...11-1

Then 5 of the next 12....which really means taking 5 of these 7 games....and writing off losses at Wisky, Wisky (MSG), at Indiana, at Maryland, and at Mich state

at SHU
Penn State
at Iowa
Northwestern
Nebraska
Iowa
at Penn State

I really think we will be 16-8 heading into the final seven games of the year...

I honestly think the path to 5-7 vs. those 12 is more reasonable to go 1-4 from Group A and 4-3 from Group B......not 0-5 and 5-2.

KENPOM has us at #131 which I think is very fair based on what I have seen.

Fri Dec 23 44 Seton Hall L, 74-63 68 15% Away
Tue Dec 27 8 Wisconsin L, 72-55 61 6% Away
Sun Jan 1 122 Penn St. W, 72-68 70 62% Home
Wed Jan 4 43 Michigan St. L, 73-61 65 15% Away
Sun Jan 8 78 Iowa L, 80-72 71 24% Away
Thu Jan 12 47 Northwestern L, 68-64 64 39% Home
Sun Jan 15 14 Indiana L, 77-61 66 7% Away
Sat Jan 21 82 Nebraska W, 66-65 66 51% Home
Tue Jan 24 62 Maryland L, 71-62 65 21% Away
Sat Jan 28 8 Wisconsin L, 69-58 61 15% Semi-Home
Tue Jan 31 78 Iowa L, 77-76 71 49% Home
Sat Feb 4 122 Penn St. L, 72-68 70 35% Away

Based on this analysis
GROUP A .64 wins
GROUP B 2.75 wins

Also, let's beat Fordham 1st. it is a 62% probability right now.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

If we are 15-10 it would still be a long shot for a post season berth (or I'd call it a birth), BUT in the month of February we'd actually legitimately be able to have a discussion. We'd actually be part of the whole scene.

I don't see us at 15 or 16 wins on Feb 5, but it wouldn't shock me....more of a pleasant surprise.

Shrink things a bit....fast forward to January 13th. 14-4? Not expecting it, 1 in 20. However I'd float to the family the notion that if RU made the tournament no matter where I am going to be there. Kids too.

 

[SkilletHead2]

If we end up with a record above .500, I will be very happy with this team. Above that is icing.

 

[BillyC80]

GRF, how would you (or Kenpom) account for our probability of winning games later in the year if we play well in the early league games and against SHU? For example, wouldn't we be favored versus Northwestern, Iowa and Nebraska at home if we beat Penn State and lose close games to SHU and Wisky?