My base case is that Ash needs two years to turn over the roster, get his offensive and defensive schemes in place, and see the fruits of his recruiting.
I assume this year is challenging due to the schematic changes and that next year is tough as we lose a number of players on the DL and OL to graduation. By Year Three, Laviano will have graduated, Ash will have one of his QBs in place (Odin, Lewis, other), some of his recruited players moving up the depth chart, the offense and defense will be much more fluid and instinctual for players, etc.
We saw with Washington that Year Three (this season) is when they are expected to make a leap forward (vs. being basically a .500 team since Peterson arrived).
So a win against Washington would definitely change my expectations as it would demonstrate that Ash and the staff have made way more progress than I thought possible in a short period of time.