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Zach Martini - most impactful defensive player? Most important metric says so

RU Chop....

If we are looking at this in one game we can definitely write it off because of sample size or something that happened with the other 4 guys. When it has been 2/3 of the year and our opponents score so much less per possession when he in the game vs our players that would play over him it requires attention.

There are times when stats or metrics tell us a picture that our eyeballs don't see. Sometimes eyeballs are right and sometime eyeballs are wrong. I don't think this metric just gets dismissed.

I think your explanation, correct me if I am wrong, it just shows our D is better because Grant, Dortch and maybe Derkack isn't good on D. If that is the case I think the case is made.
 
Perhaps an explanation that can be made to explain a little bit about the analysis (which I am not sure I buy)....bench players will look better because they are often time playing against the opponents 2nd team. Since Martini doesn't start and finish most games he rarely plays against an opponents best 5. A stretch, but if you want to debate the use of the metric that would be an arguement I couldn't ignore for a part of the difference.

The one thing that cant be argued…obviously….teams have scored less when Martini has been on the floor so far this season. The debate is why?
 
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RU Chop....

If we are looking at this in one game we can definitely write it off because of sample size or something that happened with the other 4 guys. When it has been 2/3 of the year and our opponents score so much less per possession when he in the game vs our players that would play over him it requires attention.

There are times when stats or metrics tell us a picture that our eyeballs don't see. Sometimes eyeballs are right and sometime eyeballs are wrong. I don't think this metric just gets dismissed.

I think your explanation, correct me if I am wrong, it just shows our D is better because Grant, Dortch and maybe Derkack isn't good on D. If that is the case I think the case is made.

The challenge with on/off is it doesn't really take into account who is coming on or off for a given player. Earlier in the year, you could have made a comparison at center, because Ogbole/Sommerville were pretty much splitting minutes. The on/off numbers would show, between those two players, how the team was doing.... but even that would be skewed, because Sommerville would mostly come on in rotations when one or both of Harper/Bailey came off, and didn't get to play alongside the two of them as much as Ogbole did.

You can (sort of) compare on/off numbers for two players at the same position, as long as they play with the same mix of players (they don't always, as with Sommerville)... but you can't rank a whole team that way. It is only a measure that shows the relative value of a player vs. the player they are replacing, not something you can compare between positions. Martini doesn't sub in for the point guard role, for instance, so comparing his on/off numbers to Harper or Davis is pretty much meaningless.

In recent games, the PF spot has been either Martini or Grant, though Martini has also had some minutes at the C spot behind Sommerville.... Martini is more defensively sound than either Sommerville/Grant, who are freshmen that have had several defensive lapses. That doesn't mean Martini's our "most impactful defensive player", though, especially since he's averaging just 15.2 min across 22 games (2 games he had 0 minutes). It just means the bigs we have behind him right now can be liabilities.

In a hypothetical situation, you could have two elite defenders who split a position 20/20, and their +/- would be pretty much identical to each other in the middle of the pack.... and at the same time, you could have another position where there was an average and a poor defender also splitting 20/20. That average defender is going to look much better in an on/off metric than the two elite defenders.

On/Off metrics have too many issues for me to take them seriously.
 
That doesn't mean Martini's our "most impactful defensive player", though, especially since he's averaging just 15.2 min across 22 games (2 games he had 0 minutes).
uhhhhh. not the best arguement I've ever heard
In a hypothetical situation, you could have two elite defenders who split a position 20/20, and their +/- would be pretty much identical to each other in the middle of the pack.... and at the same time, you could have another position where there was an average and a poor defender also splitting 20/20. That average defender is going to look much better in an on/off metric than the two elite defenders.
this one on the other hand.....
It just means the bigs we have behind him right now can be liabilities.
which is why I believe he could be the most impactful defender and is quite frankly what this metric could be saying
 
uhhhhh. not the best arguement I've ever heard

this one on the other hand.....

which is why I believe he could be the most impactful defender and is quite frankly what this metric could be saying

On/Off metrics aren't worth looking at to me, given their limitations. There are just too many variables unaccounted for.

Martini was a defensive liability mid-season, and now is suddenly our most valuable defender? Give me a break. Ogbole got hurt, meaning Martini is the life preserver keeping us afloat. That doesn't mean he's an "impactful" defender... just that he's serviceable on a team short on experienced bigs. On/Off metrics can make "average" look "good", because the numbers are squirrelly.

Martini's been playing well the last few games, and I hope he keeps that up - but to make a broad statement that he's the "most impactful defensive player" this season in limited minutes is a bridge too far.
 
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When was Martini a defensive liability?

These numbers just can't conveniently be ignored.

You can't just say Rutgers gives up way fewer points when Martini is in the game...A FACT....and then just say so what.

Sorry against Michigan Martini was impactful.
 
No, my argument is that individual defensive metrics are tenuous at best. No individual player plays defense in a vacuum. It's not like field goal percentage, assists, or other stats where you are actively doing an individual activity that is either successful or not successful.

Defense is a team concept. You can do everything right defensively, but if your teammate isn't where he needs to be, it won't matter. Or you could do everything wrong, but the players around you are plus help defenders.

Defensive efficiency is a team stat... more specifically a lineup stat, but that sort of data is not tracked. Same goes for box plus minus, which is a combination of offense and defense.

Yup- this - and more.

With the sample and the difference between him and other bigs it is meaningful

Forget Martini. You of all people should realize that any stat that indicates that Lathan is more efficient than Ogbole on D needs to be tossed in the garbage. There is a somewhat binary element blended into defensive efficiency despite the adjustment for opponent. Lathan is the better offensive player so in games where teams didn’t have strong post presence and couldn’t hurt us much he was given way more minutes than Ogbole. That doesn’t mean Ogbole wouldn’t have performed at the same level or better on D than Lathan if he was in the game for those minutes.
 
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2020-21
Mathis .940
Young .927
Harper .918
Baker .915
Mulcahy .898
Cliff .882
Myles .880
Caleb .816

This says to me we were 2 teams on D. 1 with Caleb in the game and one without him in the game. Night and day.
 
When was Martini a defensive liability?

These numbers just can't conveniently be ignored.

You can't just say Rutgers gives up way fewer points when Martini is in the game...A FACT....and then just say so what.

Sorry against Michigan Martini was impactful.

For the avoidance of doubt, I thought Zach had a good game against Michigan. I just think your argument presenting a season long assessment suggesting he’s been our best or most impactful defender is flawed. Fuzzy math would be a major understatement.

If anything, it merely suggests that Pike has a solid understanding of his defensive strengths and weaknesses and knows when and when not to use him. One thing I know for certain, while Ogbole is no Cliff or Myles, he was far and away our best option to contest big bruiser type stud centers. The blended D efficiency numbers say Ogbole did a poor job in those instances overall, but rest assured the other two would’ve been even worse if given those minutes. The issue was we had nobody close to MJ or Cliff to protect the rim. Ogbole was our best option so his efficiency numbers take the hit. What am I missing? Seems pretty straightforward.
 
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2020-21
Mathis .940
Young .927
Harper .918
Baker .915
Mulcahy .898
Cliff .882
Myles .880
Caleb .816

See my prior posts. Your missing the binary element that factors in when your trying to analyze a team that simply doesn’t have the horses on D. Substitutions on our current team are about minimizing the collateral damage on D in situations where we are overmatched.

Caleb and MJ made the D elite. In every situation encountered so the numbers will work out that way. It wasn’t that Tez was a bad defender - rather it was that Caleb was better and he generally subbed for Caleb.
 
Our eyeballs usually match up pretty good with things AND I have been saying all year exactly what you have been saying. In fact I think the #1 guy that needs to be retained next year is him (assuming health).

With that being said. Ogbole is least equipped to guard a perimeter players. While he and Ace are the only rim protector he has been pretty poor with the switching Pike requires.
 
See my prior posts. Your missing the binary element that factors in when your trying to analyze a team that simply doesn’t have the horses on D. Substitutions on our current team are about minimizing the collateral damage on D in situations where we are overmatched.

Caleb and MJ made the D elite. In every situation encountered so the numbers will work out that way. It wasn’t that Tez was a bad defender - rather it was that Caleb was better and he generally subbed for Caleb.
But I am failing to see with this team who, other than jaMike, are players that are brought in to help the D
 
Our eyeballs usually match up pretty good with things AND I have been saying all year exactly what you have been saying. In fact I think the #1 guy that needs to be retained next year is him (assuming health).

With that being said. Ogbole is least equipped to guard a perimeter players. While he and Ace are the only rim protector he has been pretty poor with the switching Pike requires.

Nope - this is wrong. I’m not buying it at all. Lathan doesn’t contest perimeter shots well either and certainly for the first half of the year didn’t do anything on D better than Ogbole. Ogbole is limited on offense. Pike used him when he absolutely had to in order to not get destroyed on D. The most difficult post defensive situations possible Ogbole was always on the floor. The issue was he’s not good at defending the rim. He’s just better than Latham and Zach. The efficiency numbers don’t reflect that though because those guys weren’t on the floor for those minutes and instead saw more of their time on average when we played smaller line ups with less post presence (and they got more minutes va the midmajors for this reason).
 
When was Martini a defensive liability?

These numbers just can't conveniently be ignored.

You can't just say Rutgers gives up way fewer points when Martini is in the game...A FACT....and then just say so what.

Sorry against Michigan Martini was impactful.

How short is your memory? Martini was unplayable early at center because he was getting beat, and we had to go to a diet of Sommerville/Ogbole exclusively - and then he reemerged as a PF, and got smoked repeatedly on switches vs. Princeton. He's finally settled into his role and he played very well against Michigan, but let's not go overboard talking about how great his defense has been.

Looking at our Bart AdjD in Q1/Q2 games, vs. minutes played by Martini (bolding the games where he's played 15+ minutes):

87.3 - Michigan (27 min)
92.3 - Purdue (DNP)
93.8 - Wisconsin (8 min)
95.1 - Texas A&M (13 min)
95.7 - PSU (DNP)
98.3 - UCLA (13 min)
100.5 - Alabama (12 min)
102.9 - MSU (10 min)
103.4 - @NW (16 min)
103.5 - @Indiana (21 min)
103.9 - @PSU (20 min)
106.7 - Notre Dame (19 min)

107.9 - @OSU (9 min)
122.2 - @Nebraska (18 min)

Other than Michigan, the games he's played 15+ min are mostly our worst defensive performances of the year against Q1/Q2 teams. He was held out vs. Purdue and PSU, and those were 2 of our top 5 defensive performances in that list.

I really hope he can replicate what he had going vs. Michigan, and that it wasn't matchup-dependent. Without Ogbole to back up Sommerville, who really struggles defensively at times, we need Martini to steady the ship with experience.
 
That’s a ridiculously low bar.

Would you rather have 7’0 260 lb Amari Williams’ 10 pts, 9 rebs, 1.4 blocks for Kentucky via Drexel this year?

Or 6’9 240 Bashir Jihad 12 pts, 6.2 reb, 1 blk at Arizona State via Ball State this year?

Or Antwone Woolfolk 6’9 250 8 pts, 6 rebs, 1 blk for Miami OH via RU?

We completely whiffed on replacing our three best post players all of whom had eligibility remaining.

We bet the house on Ogbole- a raw JUCO coming off a major knee injury, a true frosh and a 6’8 guy who got 3 rpg in the Ivy League.

Dylan Grant is listed at 6’7” 205
Dortch is 6’9” 205

So Ace has been forced to carry a rebounding load that takes a toll on him physically AND prevents him from getting out on the break into open floor where he’s lethal or having fresh legs for shooting.

If we were forced to settle for an undersized guy because of $$, why not go for guys like

Matt Cross 6’7 220 from UMass who averaged 15 & 8 (went to SMU)

NJ’s Rasheer Fleming 6’9 220 @ St Joes (10 pts, 7.4 rebs)

Rashawn Agee 6’7 210 Bowling Green (13.3, 10 Rebs (went to USC)

Jonnivious Smith 6’9 210 (8 pts, 8 Rebs, 1 blk (Buffalo went to USTA)

it was obvious to anyone that our frontcourt was too thin and he’d brought in too many guys with similar skillset (shooting) at the same time he had two ball-dominant nba players coming in.

Numerous people here were questioning this approach and now here we are people trying to say fighting over a screen or hedging properly is some kind of important defensive skill. That’s tablestakes.
That's a whole other question, I didn't like the Martini pick up from the beginning, especially when people were trying to say he was going to play the 5. As a back up 4?, its a little less painful. A little.
 
I just think we can't disregard season long numbers. I see the numbers and I require myself an explanation. The Michigan game to me was a sort of epiphany. For the 1st time all year I actually thought...wow there is a noticable difference in our team defense with Martini essentially being in the game and making almost every right decision and almost always in the right place. Yes..this should be bare minimum to be on court, but quite frankly how many defensive breakdowns do we have per game....so many and a lot because of switching.

I then look at these numbers and they support what i saw on the court and quite frankly against what i thought was true for most of the season.
 
I just think we can't disregard season long numbers. I see the numbers and I require myself an explanation. The Michigan game to me was a sort of epiphany. For the 1st time all year I actually thought...wow there is a noticable difference in our team defense with Martini essentially being in the game and making almost every right decision and almost always in the right place. Yes..this should be bare minimum to be on court, but quite frankly how many defensive breakdowns do we have per game....so many and a lot because of switching.

I then look at these numbers and they support what i saw on the court and quite frankly against what i thought was true for most of the season.

You can absolutely disregard season long on/off numbers. The explanation is that on/off numbers are highly suspect, and should be taken with a truckload of salt.
 
Stop it. My eyeballs said team was different when Martini came in. I said it in the media TO right after he came in to one of our most respected posters. Also why would Pike play him 27 minutes?

You can ask him…..not Pike
This might be correct for the most recent game, but across the season it has not been good. It’s possible though that the difference between eye test and metrics is that his on ball is terrible but his off ball is somehow being impactful despite his rotations not being impactful
 
You can absolutely disregard season long on/off numbers. The explanation is that on/off numbers are highly suspect, and should be taken with a truckload of salt.
So you are saying there is no or little correlation between how many points the team gives up when an individual is on the court. Sorry, with only 5 players on the court i don't know how you can do that. Especially if over the past 10 years I asked you to say if a player was a bad, average or a good defender and then we compare those answers with this metric and the correlation would be VERY high.

Is it luck that PJ hayes def eff is so bad?
Is it luck Myles was always lower than other bigs?
Is it luck that Caleb was always low?
 
So you are saying there is no or little correlation between how many points the team gives up when an individual is on the court. Sorry, with only 5 players on the court i don't know how you can do that. Especially if over the past 10 years I asked you to say if a player was a bad, average or a good defender and then we compare those answers with this metric and the correlation would be VERY high.

Is it luck that PJ hayes def eff is so bad?
Is it luck Myles was always lower than other bigs?
Is it luck that Caleb was always low?

Some metrics are better than others. Some have very narrow purpose. On/Off metrics have a ton of noise and don't account for a lot of variables, and are especially bad for players with lower minute-totals or who are used situationally. Taking a metric that is already fraught with issues and only moderately useful in a narrow purpose... and using it to make broader assumptions is not good use of data.

On/off metrics go on the trash heap for me.
 
You say all of this but if I gave you 30 names that have played at Rutgers over the years and I asked you to place them in 3 defensive buckets (good, bad and OK) I'll bet the adjusted defensive efficiency would match on almost all of them.
 
You say all of this but if I gave you 30 names that have played at Rutgers over the years and I asked you to place them in 3 defensive buckets (good, bad and OK) I'll bet the adjusted defensive efficiency would match on almost all of them.

Last two years, Antwone Woolfolk had a better DRtg than Derek Simpson. In 2022-23 Woolfolk was ahead of Mawot Mag, and Jalen Miller was worse than Paul Mulcahy. In 2021-22, Dean Reiber was our second best defender, a touch ahead of Omoruyi. In 2018-19, Shaq Doorson was ahead of Eugene Omoruyi. In 2016-17, Ibrahima Diallo and Jonathan Laurent were apparently our 2nd and 3rd best defenders.

Junk.
 
I thought a main reason we beat PSU with a solid defensive performance was that Martinin played 0 minutes?

The reports of Martini's terrible defense were premature?
 
Last two years, Antwone Woolfolk had a better DRtg than Derek Simpson. In 2022-23 Woolfolk was ahead of Mawot Mag, and Jalen Miller was worse than Paul Mulcahy. In 2021-22, Dean Reiber was our second best defender, a touch ahead of Omoruyi. In 2018-19, Shaq Doorson was ahead of Eugene Omoruyi. In 2016-17, Ibrahima Diallo and Jonathan Laurent were apparently our 2nd and 3rd best defenders.

Junk.
I now need to check how woolfolk is doing now
 
Last two years, Antwone Woolfolk had a better DRtg than Derek Simpson. In 2022-23 Woolfolk was ahead of Mawot Mag, and Jalen Miller was worse than Paul Mulcahy. In 2021-22, Dean Reiber was our second best defender, a touch ahead of Omoruyi. In 2018-19, Shaq Doorson was ahead of Eugene Omoruyi. In 2016-17, Ibrahima Diallo and Jonathan Laurent were apparently our 2nd and 3rd best defenders.

Junk.
So we have the Woolfolk information.....looking at last year.

Do we accept what the data says or do we search for noise?

1st thing that pops out...he played in the 1st half of the year and didn't in the 2nd half

That could be the noise...or maybe Cliff had a bad defensive year relative to his 1st 3.
 
So we have the Woolfolk information.....looking at last year.

Do we accept what the data says or do we search for noise?

1st thing that pops out...he played in the 1st half of the year and didn't in the 2nd half

That could be the noise...or maybe Cliff had a bad defensive year relative to his 1st 3.

Or maybe Pike knows the line ups where the best defenders aren’t needed and used Wolf more there? Stopping someone from scoring is binary. Either you do it or you don’t. If a bad defending center on our team could stop a group of opposing offensive players, perhaps Pike chooses to spell Cliff in those situations specifically. Wouldn’t that make sense? The problem with this metric is that the reverse isn’t true. If a player like Wolf or Zach gets routinely schooled by challenging offensive match ups, Pike isn’t going to put them in those situations. Instead, they will be subbed in strategically with the weaker offensive match ups and guys like Cliff or Ogbole will on offense face the more difficult guys to defends.
 
Like to see how thjs matches up with +/-……I haven’t looked in awhile …but for a while, it was Jmike and martini being very much in the negative ….havent looked in in 7-8 games to see how the number has moved
 
@RUChoppin and @PSAL_Hoops I think + / - for hockey is even worse as a metric. Certain lines are matched up with the opponents best lines AND you have a decent amount of empty net goals allowed.

+/- is a huge stat for hockey though. It is also one of the 10 stats that are used for fantasy hockey!
 
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Like to see how thjs matches up with +/-……I haven’t looked in awhile …but for a while, it was Jmike and martini being very much in the negative ….havent looked in in 7-8 games to see how the number has moved
martini has moved a bunch...he is now #1. he was a +10 in UM game, best for either team
 
When was Martini a defensive liability?

These numbers just can't conveniently be ignored.

You can't just say Rutgers gives up way fewer points when Martini is in the game...A FACT....and then just say so what.

Sorry against Michigan Martini was impactful.
Princeton and any game he has to defend one on one!
 
Princeton and any game he has to defend one on one!
The Princeton game wasn't necessarily his fault. They ran a switch that had Martini on Lee about 5 times in a row and we didn't do anything to stop it. Pike needed to either make a sub or switch up the D.
 
The Princeton game wasn't necessarily his fault. They ran a switch that had Martini on Lee about 5 times in a row and we didn't do anything to stop it. Pike needed to either make a sub or switch up the D.
Agreed 💯 on Pike for allowing to happen repeatedly. The OP point was Martini is our best defender because of his help defense and switches. Once again movement with out purpose and execution is not defense. Yes Martini is smart and gets to the right places slowly. Once there if asked to guard one on one is a complete liability.
 
Didn’t Martini have a +10 largely because JaMichael Davis had a career night?

You are really grasping at straws if you have to look at esoteric metrics like this to support a player’s individual contribution.

The only way you could say a player who played 27 minutes, scored 3 points, 3 rebounds and had 2 assists on 25% shooting had a good game is if he shut down the other team’s best player.

Goldin and Wolf average 28 points and 16 rebounds. They combined for 30 points, 20 rebounds on 11/17 shooting.

Martini played his heart out but let’s not get carried away that winning basketball is putting more points on the board than the opponent.
 
Defensive efficiency just measures points allowed PER possession. To me the most pure metrics when evaluating a team's defense
Adjusted defensive efficiency adjusts defensive efficiency for the strength of the offense you are playing against.

evanmiya.com offers OFF and DEF adjusted efficiency when a player is on the court.

Based on this metric Zack Martini is our most important player on the defensive end. He also has the highest +/- on the season (not adjusted for opponent).

Worst to best
Grant 1.069
PJ 1.045
Derkack 1.008
Ogbole .994
Harper .983
Acuff .972
Sommerville .972
JaMike .968
JWill .961
Ace .956
Martini .933
Compare this across the board to 2020-2021……and ask questions …..
 
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Put them on ignore?? No. Thats what a 12 year old does. You can choose not to read someone's opinion instead of turning your message board into an echo chamber.
In my case I have judiciously put some people on ignore. I consider it like a town square before the internet. I wouldn’t take the time to stand around and listen to and debate the village idiot. Disagreements are fine but at a some point I’ve made the decision that some of these people are truly idiots who say nothing of interest ever and it’s not worth my time to even read their repetitive stupidity. To each his own of course.
 
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Didn’t Martini have a +10 largely because JaMichael Davis had a career night?

You are really grasping at straws if you have to look at esoteric metrics like this to support a player’s individual contribution.

The only way you could say a player who played 27 minutes, scored 3 points, 3 rebounds and had 2 assists on 25% shooting had a good game is if he shut down the other team’s best player.

Goldin and Wolf average 28 points and 16 rebounds. They combined for 30 points, 20 rebounds on 11/17 shooting.

Martini played his heart out but let’s not get carried away that winning basketball is putting more points on the board than the opponent.
Winning basketball is preventing the opposition from scoring more than you.

Are we not a team that switches every little screen from 1 to 5? A team that has had many breakdowns with a bunch of freshman who are still learning. We are playing teams that are exploiting this.

Martini comes in and gets the switches right and stops the breakdowns and is always moving his feet and is exactly in the place he is supposed to be off the ball.

What is the alternative? Grant and Dortch who are longer, more athletic and have better lateral quickness, but are always messing up and being picked on by opposition.

If i am wrong here then i am not alone. Pike played Martini who is a train wreck on offense 27 minutes. Not me
 
@RUChoppin and @PSAL_Hoops I think + / - for hockey is even worse as a metric. Certain lines are matched up with the opponents best lines AND you have a decent amount of empty net goals allowed.

+/- is a huge stat for hockey though. It is also one of the 10 stats that are used for fantasy hockey!

I don’t actually hate the stat. I think there are situations where it’s useful. But the context you raised it in isn’t one of them.

You simply cannot apply this stat generally to conclude a BIG kid (who plays exclusively 4 or 5 and has clear limitations physically when it comes to certain defensive match ups) and has only logged an average of 16 minutes per game (in large part because of this) is our most valuable defensive player.

Perhaps one thing you could take away from the stat is that for all the criticism Martini has taken and despite his defensive limitations, on average, he’s held his own overall in the defensive situations Pike has chosen to put him in. But that assessment is worlds different from what you suggested.

Do you see what I’m saying? For a kid like Caleb, the stat actually does have meaning. He was clearly put into the game to be our defensive stopper and used in virtually all of the most challenging defensive situations put forth (except where foul trouble didn’t allow for it, obviously). So yes - in that case, there is a good deal of meaning to take away from the fact that we played our best team D with him in the game despite going up against the hardest, on average match ups. That’s not the case with Martini at all. Nor Wolf. Or Dean.

For players who play only limited minutes, the stat is more meaningful in the other direction. The fact that PJ is put in the game in situations where his D is least likely to be a liability and still ranks so low in this metric is telling.
 
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I definitely went to far with the title...need to get clicks for advertising.

I do think you can take something from the numbers when looking at martini vs. grant on the defensive end. I think the reason Grant sat on bench early in the year was he wasn't ready for how pike asks to defends screens/switches. I think he still isn't where he needs to be. Dortch and Grant have all the tools and need to play to get experience, but most nights Martini helps our defense (despite his poor DREB #s) more
 
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This is part of the reason why I've not been commenting as much over the past few years. If you don't like somebody put them on ignore. This board (as well as the football board) is just turning into stupid insults and a lot of the posters I used to see here are gone.
Attack the post not the poster
 
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