Got this from the Minnesota Board

[cubuffsdoug]

Feedback, please.

My take is that the list has Maryland as a tournament lock, but I'm unsure. IMO, Maryland is in the same spot Rutgers was in a few years ago. They are unbeatable at home but can't get important wins on the road. If Maryland is to secure a spot in the field of 68, they need to win on the road and have two shots at it. I feel this year, you have fewer questions about which team is in and which team is out. The biggest remaining question is seeding for most of the teams outside of the top 16.

Current NET ranking is noted in parentheses.

FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through games played February 26)
PROJECTED 1-BID CONFERENCES (current leader/highest remaining conference tournament seed) (23)
1 America East: Vermont (123)
2 ASUN: Kennesaw State (120)
3 Atlantic 10: VCU (68)
4 Big Sky: Eastern Washington (118)
5 Big South: UNC-Asheville (140)
6 Big West: UC-Irvine (95)
7 Colonial: Hofstra (86)
8 Conference USA: FAU (19)
9 Horizon: Youngstown State (114)
10 Ivy: Yale (66)
11 Metro Atlantic: Iona (58)
12 MAC: Toledo (85)
13 MEAC: Howard (235)
14 Missouri Valley: Bradley (56)
15 NEC: Fairleigh Dickinson (307)
16 OVC: Morehead State (221)
17 Patriot: Colgate (99)
18 SoCon: Furman (88)
19 Southland: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (194)
20 SWAC: Alcorn State (248)
21 Summit: Oral Roberts (44)
22 Sun Belt: Marshall (77)
23 WAC: Utah Valley (82)

An * denotes the automatic qualifier in a multiple-bid conference.
TOURNAMENT LOCKS (27)
1 *Houston (1)
2 *Alabama (2)
3 Tennessee (3)
4 *UCLA (4)
5 *Purdue (5)
6 *Kansas (6)
7 *Saint Mary’s (7)
8 UConn (8)
9 Gonzaga (9)
10 Texas (10)
11 Arizona (11)
12 Baylor (12)
13 *Marquette (13)
14 Arkansas (14)
15 *San Diego State (15)
16 Creighton (16)
17 Kansas State (17)
18 Indiana (18)
19 Kentucky (20)
20 Maryland (21)
21 TCU (22)
22 Duke (24)
23 Xavier (25)
24 Virginia (28)
25 Miami (35)
26 Northwestern (41)
27 *Pitt (53)

IN THE FIELD/WIN 1 TO BECOME A LOCK (10)
1 Iowa State (23)
2 Texas A&M (27)
3 Nevada (30)
4 Rutgers (32)
5 Michigan State (33)
6 Illinois (34)
7 Providence (37)
8 Iowa (43)
9 USC (45)
10 Missouri (49)

IN THE FIELD/WIN 2 TO BECOME A LOCK (2)
1 Boise State (29)
2 Memphis (38)

SQUARELY ON THE BUBBLE/IN THE FIELD (6) – this gets us to 68 teams in the field.
1 West Virginia (26) -- LAST 4 IN
2 Auburn (36) -- LAST 4 IN
3 Mississippi State (39)
4 NC State (42)
5 Michigan (55) – LAST TEAM IN
6 Arizona State (61) -- LAST 4 IN

SQUARELY ON THE BUBBLE/OUT OF THE FIELD (7)
1 Utah State (31)
2 Oklahoma State (46) – FIRST TEAM OUT
3 North Carolina (47)
4 College of Charleston (51) -- FIRST 4 OUT
5 Penn State (59)
6 Clemson (60) -- FIRST 4 OUT
7 Wisconsin (72) -- FIRST 4 OUT

LONGSHOTS HANGING BY A STRING (5)
1 New Mexico (48)
2 North Texas (50)
3 Oregon (52)
4 Texas Tech (54)
5 Wake Forest (84)
_________________________
Last 4 In: West Virginia (26), Auburn (36), Michigan (55), Arizona State (61)

First 4 Out: Oklahoma State (46), College of Charleston (51), Clemson (60), Wisconsin (72)

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (4): Gonzaga (9), Boise State (29), Nevada (30), Memphis (38)

First 4 Automatic Qualifiers: Morehead State (221), Howard (235), Alcorn State (248), Fairleigh Dickinson (307)
___________________________
In With the New (3): Arizona State, Bradley, Furman

Out With the Old (3): Drake, Samford, Wisconsin

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

I have Utah State and Wisconsin in as of today and Michigan and Arizona State out.

I could argue teams like Auburn are much higher in seeding, but the seeding from low 7/high 8 through mid 11 is a crapshoot. Those 10 spots or so are interchangeable IMO.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

I have Utah State and Wisconsin in as of today and Michigan and Arizona State out.

I could argue teams like Auburn are much higher in seeding, but the seeding from low 7/high 8 through mid 11 is a crapshoot. Those 10 spots or so are interchangeable IMO.

But isn't the lack of quality wins by Utah State the sticking point for them even entertaining a shot at the tourney?

 

[Lawboy12007]

Michigan needs a few quad one wins to get in the field.

 

[cicero grimes]

Assuming MD is in, how to do project them in the tourney assuming they get a fair or favorable matchup. I hate taking teams in the tourney that have gaudy home records but can't win in big spots on the road. Always gives me agita when picking a bracket.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Maryland is not close to the spot RU was in back in 2019-20 in my opinion. We didn’t have any neutral wins either - just one road win over a dreadful Nebraska team until we won at Mackey.

Maryland has 2 comparable true road wins @ Minny and @ UofL. But they also have neutral wins Miami and St Louis. It’s a huge difference. We would’ve been a solid lock if we hadn’t lost that St Bonnie’s game.

 

[RUBlackout]

I hope UNC and Michigan lose out

 

[cubuffsdoug]

Maryland is not close to the spot RU was in back in 2019-20 in my opinion. We didn’t have any neutral wins either - just one road win over a dreadful Nebraska team until we won at Mackey.

Maryland has 2 comparable true road wins @ Minny and @ UofL. But they also have neutral wins Miami and St Louis. It’s a huge difference. We would’ve been a solid lock if we hadn’t lost that St Bonnie’s game.

I forgot the wins over Miami and St. Louis. Still, do you think they will have a higher seed than Rutgers (2019-2020)?

 

[bitnez]

Maryland is 100% in.

 

[briccnerff]

Feedback, please.

My take is that the list has Maryland as a tournament lock, but I'm unsure. IMO, Maryland is in the same spot Rutgers was in a few years ago. They are unbeatable at home but can't get important wins on the road. If Maryland is to secure a spot in the field of 68, they need to win on the road and have two shots at it. I feel this year, you have fewer questions about which team is in and which team is out. The biggest remaining question is seeding for most of the teams outside of the top 16.

Current NET ranking is noted in parentheses.

FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through games played February 26)
PROJECTED 1-BID CONFERENCES (current leader/highest remaining conference tournament seed) (23)
1 America East: Vermont (123)
2 ASUN: Kennesaw State (120)
3 Atlantic 10: VCU (68)
4 Big Sky: Eastern Washington (118)
5 Big South: UNC-Asheville (140)
6 Big West: UC-Irvine (95)
7 Colonial: Hofstra (86)
8 Conference USA: FAU (19)
9 Horizon: Youngstown State (114)
10 Ivy: Yale (66)
11 Metro Atlantic: Iona (58)
12 MAC: Toledo (85)
13 MEAC: Howard (235)
14 Missouri Valley: Bradley (56)
15 NEC: Fairleigh Dickinson (307)
16 OVC: Morehead State (221)
17 Patriot: Colgate (99)
18 SoCon: Furman (88)
19 Southland: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (194)
20 SWAC: Alcorn State (248)
21 Summit: Oral Roberts (44)
22 Sun Belt: Marshall (77)
23 WAC: Utah Valley (82)

An * denotes the automatic qualifier in a multiple-bid conference.
TOURNAMENT LOCKS (27)
1 *Houston (1)
2 *Alabama (2)
3 Tennessee (3)
4 *UCLA (4)
5 *Purdue (5)
6 *Kansas (6)
7 *Saint Mary’s (7)
8 UConn (8)
9 Gonzaga (9)
10 Texas (10)
11 Arizona (11)
12 Baylor (12)
13 *Marquette (13)
14 Arkansas (14)
15 *San Diego State (15)
16 Creighton (16)
17 Kansas State (17)
18 Indiana (18)
19 Kentucky (20)
20 Maryland (21)
21 TCU (22)
22 Duke (24)
23 Xavier (25)
24 Virginia (28)
25 Miami (35)
26 Northwestern (41)
27 *Pitt (53)

IN THE FIELD/WIN 1 TO BECOME A LOCK (10)
1 Iowa State (23)
2 Texas A&M (27)
3 Nevada (30)
4 Rutgers (32)
5 Michigan State (33)
6 Illinois (34)
7 Providence (37)
8 Iowa (43)
9 USC (45)
10 Missouri (49)

IN THE FIELD/WIN 2 TO BECOME A LOCK (2)
1 Boise State (29)
2 Memphis (38)

SQUARELY ON THE BUBBLE/IN THE FIELD (6) – this gets us to 68 teams in the field.
1 West Virginia (26) -- LAST 4 IN
2 Auburn (36) -- LAST 4 IN
3 Mississippi State (39)
4 NC State (42)
5 Michigan (55) – LAST TEAM IN
6 Arizona State (61) -- LAST 4 IN

SQUARELY ON THE BUBBLE/OUT OF THE FIELD (7)
1 Utah State (31)
2 Oklahoma State (46) – FIRST TEAM OUT
3 North Carolina (47)
4 College of Charleston (51) -- FIRST 4 OUT
5 Penn State (59)
6 Clemson (60) -- FIRST 4 OUT
7 Wisconsin (72) -- FIRST 4 OUT

LONGSHOTS HANGING BY A STRING (5)
1 New Mexico (48)
2 North Texas (50)
3 Oregon (52)
4 Texas Tech (54)
5 Wake Forest (84)
_________________________
Last 4 In: West Virginia (26), Auburn (36), Michigan (55), Arizona State (61)

First 4 Out: Oklahoma State (46), College of Charleston (51), Clemson (60), Wisconsin (72)

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (4): Gonzaga (9), Boise State (29), Nevada (30), Memphis (38)

First 4 Automatic Qualifiers: Morehead State (221), Howard (235), Alcorn State (248), Fairleigh Dickinson (307)
___________________________
In With the New (3): Arizona State, Bradley, Furman

Out With the Old (3): Drake, Samford, Wisconsin

Rutgers is a lock. Bad info.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

Rutgers is a lock. Bad info.

Then again, Minnesota truly hates Rutgers because we have pushed them down in the pecking order. That is a bitter pill for them to swallow.

 

[Mr Magoo]

Maryland has 20 wins, a very good conference record and beat Miami OOC. They are a lock.

West Virginia is 16-13 and has lost 5 of their last 6. Can’t see how they are still in most pundits’ brackets.

 

[Morrischiano]

Wow I did a double take regarding Illinois. They had a bad loss v OSU yesterday.

Their game v Michigan will be huge Thursday.


BTW how fvcking awesome is it that RU is becoming a perennial winner in this great basketball conference?

 

[Morrischiano]

Then again, Minnesota truly hates Rutgers because we have pushed them down in the pecking order. That is a bitter pill for them to swallow.

Bitter for PSU, as well.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I forgot the wins over Miami and St. Louis. Still, do you think they will have a higher seed than Rutgers (2019-2020)?

I’m not sure what your asking. The “talk” being referred to would’ve been before we won at Mackey. Once we won - we were a lock to make the field if the tourney hadn’t been canceled which is where Maryland is right now. Hypothetically if they lose their next 2 road games they’d then be in a similar position to where we were post Mackey win. The point is they are a lock to make the field even if they lose out.

 

[bac2therac]

Maryland is a stone cold lock and on the 6/7 line

Michigan State, Iowa, Illinois are also locks

RU just whiskers away

 

[billgumpper]

Feedback, please.

My take is that the list has Maryland as a tournament lock, but I'm unsure. IMO, Maryland is in the same spot Rutgers was in a few years ago. They are unbeatable at home but can't get important wins on the road. If Maryland is to secure a spot in the field of 68, they need to win on the road and have two shots at it. I feel this year, you have fewer questions about which team is in and which team is out. The biggest remaining question is seeding for most of the teams outside of the top 16.

Current NET ranking is noted in parentheses.

FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through games played February 26)
PROJECTED 1-BID CONFERENCES (current leader/highest remaining conference tournament seed) (23)
1 America East: Vermont (123)
2 ASUN: Kennesaw State (120)
3 Atlantic 10: VCU (68)
4 Big Sky: Eastern Washington (118)
5 Big South: UNC-Asheville (140)
6 Big West: UC-Irvine (95)
7 Colonial: Hofstra (86)
8 Conference USA: FAU (19)
9 Horizon: Youngstown State (114)
10 Ivy: Yale (66)
11 Metro Atlantic: Iona (58)
12 MAC: Toledo (85)
13 MEAC: Howard (235)
14 Missouri Valley: Bradley (56)
15 NEC: Fairleigh Dickinson (307)
16 OVC: Morehead State (221)
17 Patriot: Colgate (99)
18 SoCon: Furman (88)
19 Southland: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (194)
20 SWAC: Alcorn State (248)
21 Summit: Oral Roberts (44)
22 Sun Belt: Marshall (77)
23 WAC: Utah Valley (82)

An * denotes the automatic qualifier in a multiple-bid conference.
TOURNAMENT LOCKS (27)
1 *Houston (1)
2 *Alabama (2)
3 Tennessee (3)
4 *UCLA (4)
5 *Purdue (5)
6 *Kansas (6)
7 *Saint Mary’s (7)
8 UConn (8)
9 Gonzaga (9)
10 Texas (10)
11 Arizona (11)
12 Baylor (12)
13 *Marquette (13)
14 Arkansas (14)
15 *San Diego State (15)
16 Creighton (16)
17 Kansas State (17)
18 Indiana (18)
19 Kentucky (20)
20 Maryland (21)
21 TCU (22)
22 Duke (24)
23 Xavier (25)
24 Virginia (28)
25 Miami (35)
26 Northwestern (41)
27 *Pitt (53)

IN THE FIELD/WIN 1 TO BECOME A LOCK (10)
1 Iowa State (23)
2 Texas A&M (27)
3 Nevada (30)
4 Rutgers (32)
5 Michigan State (33)
6 Illinois (34)
7 Providence (37)
8 Iowa (43)
9 USC (45)
10 Missouri (49)

IN THE FIELD/WIN 2 TO BECOME A LOCK (2)
1 Boise State (29)
2 Memphis (38)

SQUARELY ON THE BUBBLE/IN THE FIELD (6) – this gets us to 68 teams in the field.
1 West Virginia (26) -- LAST 4 IN
2 Auburn (36) -- LAST 4 IN
3 Mississippi State (39)
4 NC State (42)
5 Michigan (55) – LAST TEAM IN
6 Arizona State (61) -- LAST 4 IN

SQUARELY ON THE BUBBLE/OUT OF THE FIELD (7)
1 Utah State (31)
2 Oklahoma State (46) – FIRST TEAM OUT
3 North Carolina (47)
4 College of Charleston (51) -- FIRST 4 OUT
5 Penn State (59)
6 Clemson (60) -- FIRST 4 OUT
7 Wisconsin (72) -- FIRST 4 OUT

LONGSHOTS HANGING BY A STRING (5)
1 New Mexico (48)
2 North Texas (50)
3 Oregon (52)
4 Texas Tech (54)
5 Wake Forest (84)
_________________________
Last 4 In: West Virginia (26), Auburn (36), Michigan (55), Arizona State (61)

First 4 Out: Oklahoma State (46), College of Charleston (51), Clemson (60), Wisconsin (72)

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (4): Gonzaga (9), Boise State (29), Nevada (30), Memphis (38)

First 4 Automatic Qualifiers: Morehead State (221), Howard (235), Alcorn State (248), Fairleigh Dickinson (307)
___________________________
In With the New (3): Arizona State, Bradley, Furman

Out With the Old (3): Drake, Samford, Wisconsin

UMass Lowell didn't win their conference? Actually I see that Vermont won it, do they play a league tourney?

 

[bac2therac]

UMass Lowell didn't win their conference?

Vermont did

 

[billgumpper]

Vermont did

I see that, do they play a league tourney?

 

[RUinPinehurst]

I hope UNC and Michigan lose out

UNC visits Florida State tonight. The Seminoles will be ready to play the spoiler.

 

[bigmatt718]

Then again, Minnesota truly hates Rutgers because we have pushed them down in the pecking order. That is a bitter pill for them to swallow.

Boo hoo. Maybe focus less on ice hockey if they want to be anything better than garbage at basketball.

 

[RUHouston]

Then again, Minnesota truly hates Rutgers because we have pushed them down in the pecking order. That is a bitter pill for them to swallow.

Yep, and they better get used to it!

 

[mikeyo]

Bitter for PSU, as well.

Gee, that's too bad

 

[RUnTeX]

UMass Lowell didn't win their conference? Actually I see that Vermont won it, do they play a league tourney?

Yes, America East hosts a conference tournament. Vermont will be the 1 seed and UML will be the 2 seed.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Rutgers is a lock. Bad info.

You are being an emotional fan. Rutgers is not and should not be a lock right now. There are moving parts that can and will impact pecking order. The bubble is and always will be fluid until the games are over.

 

[SirScarlet]

You are being an emotional fan. Rutgers is not and should not be a lock right now. There are moving parts that can and will impact pecking order. The bubble is and always will be fluid until the games are over.

Yes and no. Win one more and we are a LOCK

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Yes and no. Win one more and we are a LOCK

1 is a number much greater than 0

 

[cubuffsdoug]

1 is a number much greater than 0

Then that rule goes for every team that is not an auto bid.

 

[motorb54]

If Wisconsin doesn't get in the end game screw up vs. Michigan may very well be the reason.
And Michigan would really be hurting with the loss they should have received.
The Badgers blew it. Was so wanting Wisconsin to win and their idiocy gave it away.

 

[mikeyo]

1 is a number much greater than 0

Yep. By 100 percent. The biggest must win of the season is now this Thursday. We're playing a D1 team on the road. Gotta focus on that

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Then that rule goes for every team that is not an auto bid.

No there are like 25 or so teams that can lose the rest of their games and the bubble can win the rest of their games and they still be in.

I know the committee would/could put 11 B1G teams in the tournament, but we can paint scenarios where are RU could have the 11th best resume of B1G teams still.

 

[RUEd]

If Wisconsin doesn't get in the end game screw up vs. Michigan may very well be the reason.
And Michigan would really be hurting with the loss they should have received.
The Badgers blew it. Was so wanting Wisconsin to win and their idiocy gave it away.

Not sure if people were actually listening to Lappas call the game but he was screaming to foul. Once they didn’t, and the shot went out of bounds, Lappas basically said you now blew it because every inbound would result in a 3 pointer and potential shot to tie

 

[goru7]

No there are like 25 or so teams that can lose the rest of their games and the bubble can win the rest of their games and they still be in.

I know the committee would/could put 11 B1G teams in the tournament, but we can paint scenarios where are RU could have the 11th best resume of B1G teams still.

Now you are being disingenuous. After beating Penn State yesterday any reasonable bracketology expert or any Committee member should have us on the 8 line at worst. So we are like 90-95% there. Granted we are not there yet but you making it sound like a 50/50 proposition is your glass always half empty take. Go ahead show me another team with wins at Purdue and at NW and at Wisconsin and At Penn State with their home records ,including the early screw job at Ohio State , and maybe one of the Big 12 teams and NW are in that company. NW was a 5 or 6 seed before their 2 game losing streak just like we were before the Mag injury. Surely , you do not believe NW can lose their last 2 games ( would make it 4 in a row ) and lose their first round BIG 10 tourney game to make it 5 losses in a row and be bounced from the tourney but Rutgers would. I will give you we are not 100% locked in but 90-95% is pretty damn close.

 

[briccnerff]

You are being an emotional fan. Rutgers is not and should not be a lock right now. There are moving parts that can and will impact pecking order. The bubble is and always will be fluid until the games are over.

We are in. An emotional fan is one who disparages the team when we lose. Look at the metrics. We are in.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

We are in. An emotional fan is one who disparages the team when we lose. Look at the metrics. We are in.

What metrics are you talking about? Is this before or after 3 losses and one that is Minnesota?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Now you are being disingenuous. After beating Penn State yesterday any reasonable bracketology expert or any Committee member should have us on the 8 line at worst. So we are like 90-95% there. Granted we are not there yet but you making it sound like a 50/50 proposition is your glass always half empty take. Go ahead show me another team with wins at Purdue and at NW and at Wisconsin and At Penn State with their home records ,including the early screw job at Ohio State , and maybe one of the Big 12 teams and NW are in that company. NW was a 5 or 6 seed before their 2 game losing streak just like we were before the Mag injury. Surely , you do not believe NW can lose their last 2 games ( would make it 4 in a row ) and lose their first round BIG 10 tourney game to make it 5 losses in a row and be bounced from the tourney but Rutgers would. I will give you we are not 100% locked in but 90-95% is pretty damn close.

People need to completely ignore what your seed might be on a specific day.

The debate isn’t if we get in. The debate is are we a lock.

The reasons people are giving why we are a lock are not sound.

Completely ignoring the fact that at 18-14 there is a realistic chance there will be more than 42 or whatever the number is at large teams with better resumes. Ignoring the fact there is a chance at a bid stealer.

My definition of a lock is 99%+ chance of getting in if you lose out. There is NO way we can say that right now. Even bac would agree.

 

[briccnerff]

What metrics are you talking about? Is this before or after 3 losses and one that is Minnesota?

All of them. We have 6 quad 1 wins. We have four road wins against quad 1 opponents. 9-8 vs q1&2. Our NET. Zero q4 losses. This late in the game, those numbers don’t change much. Each time we lose now, May drop us a seed. Not enough losses left to knock us out of tourney. Look at the bubble teams. Many have much less q1&2 victories. just compare them.

 

[briccnerff]

No there are like 25 or so teams that can lose the rest of their games and the bubble can win the rest of their games and they still be in.

I know the committee would/could put 11 B1G teams in the tournament, but we can paint scenarios where are RU could have the 11th best resume of B1G teams still.

This is not even close to true. Maybe just maybe, there are three teams in the B1G that can pass us. NW, MSU, ill. Finishing 11th in B1G is different than having 11th best resume.

 

[knightfan7]

UNC visits Florida State tonight. The Seminoles will be ready to play the spoiler.

Don't think so. UNC up 18 at the half. 11-18 from 3.

 

[bac2therac]

You are being an emotional fan. Rutgers is not and should not be a lock right now. There are moving parts that can and will impact pecking order. The bubble is and always will be fluid until the games are over.

taught you well, grasshopper