Got this from the Minnesota Board
- Thread starter cubuffsdoug
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Net is not the most important thing used. Its a sorting tool. Our Net would be 50 with a loss to Minnesota
RU has a 60-70% chance to get in at 18-14 but its not a lock
Illinois and Iowa have defeated Rutgers .As to Michigan State they have been performing at a higher level than Rutgers in recent games.Bottom line parity in won/loss records makes it harder to show separation .
Key seperation is Rutgers has 3 Q3 losses compared to these schools and so unfortunately unless we get some big wins down the stretch will continue to be below them in seeding
Not going to argue with you on seeding, just that we are in. But it’s important to note that Rutgers is 6-6 vs q1.
Iowa is 4-8 vs q1
Illinois is 3-9 vs q1
MSU is 6-9 vs q1.
But yes, they’re all better than Rutgers in q3&4.
Edit- But Iowa has q4 loss.
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It doesn't work that way..its a balance. On average they all are pretty equal in quality of wins and wins team in field. Yes Q2 can have just as good wins as Q1
Non conference performance and q3 losses are the area where RU suffers and thats what the resume is dung. 3 losses in q3 is alot for a school in 7-10 seed range
Given the rest is equal thats why you see RU slightly behind the others in everyone's not just mine bracketology
Don't confuse mugrat with facts. His only purpose in life appears to be following bac on these forums and disagreeing with him, even if he has be a fool to do it.
You need to forget the NET.
The committee is not stupid. They understand the limitations of the NET and how it can be manipulated. They are not going to ignore the impact to the NET of us beating teams ranked 300 by 40 6 or 7 times
I think it is sorting secondarily. Primarily it is used for SOS purposes. It essentially makes the Quads that are heavily leaned on
RIGht?
well yeah it sorts and you get sos but it also divvies up the teams in 4 kinds of wins. I think people just go crazy with the net...when I do my analysis Im looking less at metrics
also kenpom and stuff like that is not much of a consideration, not sure why people like to look at them so much
also kenpom and stuff like that is not much of a consideration, not sure why people like to look at them so much
no i know this from reading the ncaa site and from paying attention to this for 25 years
He is giving you probabilities based on events that haven't happened yet. As far as NET not being important as a tool I think this is downright logical given the major shortcomings of it and how it can be manipulated.
Florida Atlantic is 19 they are not going to be higher than a 8 seed if that
Definitely can understand the reasoning that we are not a 100% lock but the placement of Iowa and Illinois anywhere above us in the NCAA seeding is curious at best.
BAC, you killed us repeatedly for the Lafayette loss last year and seem to be giving Iowa a pass for their Eastern Illinois home loss.
Examining the resumes more closely and forgetting about the NET for a second and that we are ahead both of Iowa and Illinois , you seem to be harping on the Q-3 losses. Let’s examine 1) Temple , now the Net might hold that against us but I find to hard to believe any Committee member doesn’t do their due diligence and realize we played without Paul and Caleb. So I am not dinging us as badly as you and maybe other bracketologists are ! 2) Seton Hall - a rivalry game lost by 2 points ; compared to Illinois losing their rivalry game to Missouri by 22 points and Iowa winning theirs against Iowa State by 20 points. 3 ) Nebraska - yes losing to a bottom tier conference team but a team playing real well now compared to Iowa losing to Nebraska by 16 when they weren’t playing well or Illinois losing to Ohio State by 12 when they are dreadful. So I would say our loss to Nebraska is the least offensive of the 3 regardless that Iowa and Ohio State’s losses are only categorized as Quad 2 losses
Now the Out of Conference . We beat Wake Forest by 24 , lost to a Quad 1 borderline team in Miami by 7 , Seton Hall , a Quad 3 now but 2 most of the year and Temple another Quad 3.
Iowa beat Seton Hall , now a Quad 2 and Iowa State , a fading Quad 1 and lost to a Quad 4 Eastern Illinois.
Illinois - Great Quad 1 wins against UCLA came way back in second half and Texas in OT and lame Syracuse. Losses by 9 to Virginia and by 22 to Missouri. Overall despite the losses , Illinois has the best OOC resume.
Now in Conference Rutgers has a road win at Purdue and neither Iowa nor Illinois have beaten Purdue( Iowa lost by 14 and Illinois hasn’t played them .
Rutgers has a road win at NW and Iowa lost by 20 to them on the road and Illinois lost by 13 on the road and just came back from 19 down at half to beat NW at home.
Rutgers has beaten Indiana by 15 at home and lost by 6 on the road. Iowa came from 21 down and beat Indiana at home by 5 ; Illinois has lost to Indiana 2 times by 15 at home and by 3 on the road.
Rutgers beat Maryland by 14 at home. Iowa beat Maryland by 14 at home and Illinois lost by 5 to Maryland on the road.
Rutgers lost to Michigan at home and Iowa beat Michigan in OT and Illinois has not played them yet.
Rutgers beat Wisconsin on the road . Iowa has lost 2 times to Wisconsin . Illinois has beaten Wisconsin 2x
Rutgers split with Michigan State losing on the road and winning home (neutral at MSG ) ..Iowa just beat MSU at home in a miracle . Illinois beat MSU.
Rutgers beat Penn State on the road in a miracle comeback. Iowa lost to Penn State on the road by 4. Illinois lost to Penn State 2x home by 15 and away by 12 points.
Now Iowa has beaten Rutgers 2x and Illinois beat Rutgers 1x but they are all 10-8 in conference. It is pretty clear that Rutgers with the wins over Purdue , NW, Wisconsin and Penn State on the road , along with wins over Indiana , MSU and Maryland have the better wins in conference than either Iowa or Illinois. Iowa has beaten Indiana , Rutgers 2x , Maryland, Michigan and Michigan State losing to Purdue and Northwestern , Wisconsin 2x , Penn State. We both have a Nebraska loss.
Illinois has beaten Rutgers , split with NW , beat Wisconsin 2x , beat Michigan State and has not yet played Michigan nor Purdue. They have lost to Indiana 2x, Penn State 2x , 1x to NW , lost to Maryland , lost to Iowa and then the recent 12 point road loss to dreadful Ohio State , clearly the worst loss among the 3 teams with OSU riding a 9 game losing streak. Rutgers was robbed of a sweep of OSU early on the year.
All in all , the resumes are pretty close so if Iowa is being seeded 6,7 or 8 or 9 and Illinois the same , then Rutgers with a higher NET and at least drastically ahead in one efficiency metric defense (3) and drastically behind in the other metric offensive efficiency , should be equally seeded. The closer examination of the resumes both in conference and out of conferences together as a committee member , they either all should be considered locks or none of them.
Iowa has one bad loss. They also have 12 Q1/2 wins. They have 8-9 wins vs teams projected in the field to RU's 6. They have 2x DECISIVE wins over Rutgers. They actually have a non conference win that matters. Their ooc sos isnt the worst among schools in the field. There is not much argument here at this time.
Ditto for Illinois because they beat UCLA and Texas ooc so even if RU has the better wins in league, this gets balanced out and Illinois has no bad losses.
RU can move ahead of Iowa as early as tonight should Iowa lose at Indiana.
RU had more than one loss last year and thats why they were hammered...they had 3
Illinois has dealt with injuries too, in fact most teams have including Indiana who played RU without 2 guys
committee looking at injuries is overrated and will not play a factor considering without Mag RU is a lesser team so that would work against us anyhow if they did consider injuries because he isnt coming back
Ditto for Illinois because they beat UCLA and Texas ooc so even if RU has the better wins in league, this gets balanced out and Illinois has no bad losses.
RU can move ahead of Iowa as early as tonight should Iowa lose at Indiana.
RU had more than one loss last year and thats why they were hammered...they had 3
Illinois has dealt with injuries too, in fact most teams have including Indiana who played RU without 2 guys
committee looking at injuries is overrated and will not play a factor considering without Mag RU is a lesser team so that would work against us anyhow if they did consider injuries because he isnt coming back
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I guess we'll agree to disagree.
The bubble is extremely weak this year and RU's NET is currently 31. They have a better resume than last year's team with the road wins and not slipping with the OOC games. If they lost out they'd probably be a 12 seed but I don't expect that scenario to occur.
He's been that name for years. I remember him stalking madchuck and kyk before he started with me on the football side.
Any bubble with Wiscy, Michigan, North Carolina, USC, ASU, Memphis, etc. is hardly weak.
Weak bubble talk is just an over used cliche.
You're looking at the name on the jersey instead of the resume. Thank you for playing though.
You do realize our NET wouldn’t be 31 if we dropped 3 in a row right? 12 seeds are typically either play in games or autobids so it seems you inadvertently proved my point that we’d be sweating it out on the cusp line.
I did not say this was likely to happen (lose 3 straight) - just that we would not be a lock in that scenerio. This should be obvious.
I hear your arguments and they make sense but you say things to kind of meet your narrative . Can see your argument for both Iowa and Illinois at a seed line ahead of Rutgers but what you say seems to give them the benefit of the doubt but never Rutgers.
Iowa , you say 1 bad loss which you kinda gloss over as a 9 point home loss to Eastern Illinois sitting at 345 in the Net today . That is not just bad but atrocious and worse than our buzzer beating home loss to Lafayette last year. You did say last year , we need like 2 super wins to overcome that and we got 4 straight against ranked teams and did. Iowa ‘s out of conference has 1 high Quad 1 big win against rival Iowa State , who is fading fast. Their other OOC wins are Seton Hall , Clemson and Ga Tech all 3 not in the tourney today nor according to you good teams and teams that you often label “ trash”. There 2 other losses are to high Quad 1 TCU by 13 on a neutral and to Duke , who at that time was mediocre to putrid , by 12. So they have 1 significant win against fading Iowa State , their rival, which if we use your reasoning is not counterbalanced by the Eastern Illinois , the worst loss of any team in the field. , and they did not get the 2’nd win which is what you wanted by Rutgers last year.
You downplayed their Quad 1 record compared to ours or against high Quad 1 , since they have not beaten Purdue and Maryland , top 17 or above NET teams , like RU did . They lost to Nebraska by 16 so you bashing Rutgers for losing to Nebraska wouldn’t be right. You also did not point out the road record is 4-5 Rutgers which should be 5-4 with the OSU screw job to Iowa’s 3-6. That is a huge factor the Committee takes into account and Rutgers gets the edge there.
Now they beat Rutgers 2x so they certainly deserve to be seeded equal or slightly ahead since we are both 10-8 in conference play but if you are seeding them as a 6 then we are a 7 and a lock. If you seeded them a 7 we are last 7 or an 8 and a lock. If you seeded them 8 and RU last 8 or first 9 then neither should be 100% a lock but close 90%.
Iowa is a lock because they dont play Minnesota in one of their last 2
Rutgers isnt a lock because they can potentially add a horrific loss to the resume
Rutgers isnt a lock because they can potentially add a horrific loss to the resume
Now to your defense of Illinois , you think their non conference wins over UCLA and Texas should be enough to seed them ahead of Rutgers and consider them a lock. But let’s look a little closer , you claim they have no bad losses but I would consider the Missouri loss to their rival on a neutral floor a bad loss.
You gloss over the conference schedule forgetting they are 10-8 like RU but not really in the same ball park. They have played Ohio State , Minnesota , Nebraska and Wisconsin 2x each for 8 of their wins . Those are the bottom 4 teams in the conference. They lost to Penn State the next lowest seeded team 2x. They have not even played Purdue nor Michigan. They have wins over NW and Rutgers at home. They have lost to Maryland , Indiana 2x And Iowa. So they have exactly 1 win against the top 5 in the present standings before they play Michigan and at Purdue. You really cannot compare their 10-8 to our 10-8 nor Iowa’s 10-8 .
Their road record is 3-6 to our 4-5 road record , again something the committee values.
So you giving Illinois a pass on the futility in conference against the top teams and how the unbalanced schedule accounts for most of their wins. You think because of the OOC wins , conference wins are not as important , nor who you have played and beaten , so you have not dinged them. If Illinois is a lock , Rutgers is a lock. They should be seeded on the same line in the NCAA .
So what. Xavier just crushed them by 22 in Newark without Fremantle one of their best players. We lost to our rival by 2 in a defense laden rock fight. But don’t ignore the other things.
So you are saying if Rutgers had Purdue and Northwestern left they could lose both , which would be 6 of the last 8 , and be a lock now. ?
I hear what your saying but the Eastern Illinois loss cannot be compared to that Lafayette loss. Both no Kris Murray or Connor McCaffery is a HUGE factor and there’s no way the committee isn’t going to take that into account. I believe it was the only game Iowa played without both of those guys.
Weren’t you the guy who said Creighton should get a pass for losses without their center during a loss stretch? Kalkbrenner actually played the whole game in the first 3 of those 6 losses including vs Nebraska. Kris Murray scores 20+ points a game (22nd nationally). Connor McCaffery averages 30+ minutes a game. Surely the committee will (and in fairness, should) have more sympathy for Iowa than they will Creighton. It was one game. When it was just Murray out - Iowa managed to beat Iowa State and put up a good fight vs. Wisky.
Fair enough but the score wasn’t 56-47 it was 92-83 so I would have to check the Boxscore to see where Iowa got their points that day. Just checked they got 24 from Labraca , 18 from Sandfort , 15 from Perkins and 12 from Patrick MC Cafferty , so all 4 scored above their average. But they shot 7-33 or 21% from 3 and remarkably Eastern Illinois was only 6-15 from 3. So although they missed Murray , they were going through one of their bad shooting days like they just did at NW and at Wisconsin with Murray in the lineup.
But you are correct they should get some consideration from the Committee being without 2 of their starters
You are also forgetting that RU will get credit for the blown call that cost them the OSU game when the committee discusses their resume. They look at the whole body of work including NET, road wins, Quad 1/2 wins, Quad 3/4 losses. So again we'll just agree to disagree. Don't understand why it's such a hard concept for some people on these boards...lol.
Murray isn’t just a starter. He’ll likely be a national first teamer. Connor is their version of Paul and it came out a week or so later that his brother had been playing through major anxiety issues. If there was ever a game where the committee will give somewhat of a pass it ought to be that one.
Lol...a loss to a ncaa 6-8 seed isnt a bad loss
Illinois has incredible non conference wins..and committee loves non conference stuff
They also beat RU and they dont have 3 q3 losses
Rutgers lost to Nebraska at home but at the same time devaluing Illinois beating them
Should illinois falter down the stretch ru may get a better seed than them
I’d love for that to be the case, but I don’t think it will at all. Blown calls in every game. More of a chance we get some slack for the injuries vs. Temple in my opinion.
I recall the same hand wringing by literally the same people last year when I said they were in the tournament. I'll trust my instinct again.
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